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C. Flower
14-07-2016, 10:33 AM
A thread to track the new era in British life, following the vote for Britain to leave the EU.

The immediate changes have been political and financial -

Teresa May as P.M.

Boris in as Foreign Minister ( the world torn between laughter and horror)

Gove gone as Justice Minister.

Labour in shreds - civil war between M.Ps and actual socialists in the party.

Pound down, stock market up.

C. Flower
14-07-2016, 10:45 AM
BBC Poll. Today.

BBC News Brexit Expectations Poll


Poll for BBC News on British public's expectations of what will happen under Brexit




Most Britons think that maintaining access to the single market should be the priority for the Government when negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the EU (66%), while just a third say this of restricting freedom of movement (31%).



Half of British adults (52%) expect immigration to fall after the UK leaves the EU. Around one in three expect levels of immigration to remain about the same (36%).



Almost half (45%) say they will be dissatisfied if the government continues to allow immigration from the EU in exchange for access to the single market.



A quarter of British adults (27%) expect that at least some EU citizens currently resident in the UK will be required to leave the country when Britain leaves the EU. One in ten (10%) think most EU citizens will be required to leave the country.



Around three quarters of British adults (72%) say they do not trust leading politicians to do a good job of carrying out the will of the British people during the process of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, while half do not trust civil servants (50%).



Half of Britons (52%) say they think that the UK will stay in the single market with some limits on freedom of movement.



Half of the British public (47%) think the UK economy will be worse in two years’ time, a third think it will be better (32%). However, over the longer time, the public appears to believe the economy will improve – 52% of Britons think that the economy will be in a better place in five years’ time, compared to 30% who say it will be worse than where it is today.

More Britons (53%) think it is likely that the UK will no longer exist in ten years’ time than think England can win a major football tournament (13%). Around a quarter of Britons (25%) think it is likely that the UK will be a member of the EU is ten years’ time

Donal Og
14-07-2016, 12:20 PM
Looks like the Brits have bought a pig in a poke. I wonder how long it will be before a poll shows a majority remember voting for Remain? This happened quite quickly after the 92 UK election. ICM - I think- started putting ' don't knows' into the parties they supported at the previous election. That's a crude explanation of the 'weighting' they used to try and account for the phenomenon of ' shy Tories' but it was this new method that flagged up false memory syndrome among some voters. With this technique it emerged that Kinmock had actually won that election.In this case the plunge in support for the Tories after Black Friday maybe accounted for it?

Donal Og
14-07-2016, 12:23 PM
By the same token , I wonder how many Scots who voted against Independence are consigning their previous views to some internal Room 101?

C. Flower
14-07-2016, 04:53 PM
The Independent (Ireland) for once gets their front page headline right with "Britain Lurches to the RIght with May's Pro-Brexit Cabinet". More or less an entire new Cabinet, bar two.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/britain-lurches-to-the-right-with-mays-probrexit-cabinet-34883035.html

riposte
14-07-2016, 05:28 PM
The Independent (Ireland) for once gets their front page headline right with "Britain Lurches to the RIght with May's Pro-Brexit Cabinet". More or less an entire new Cabinet, bar two.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/britain-lurches-to-the-right-with-mays-probrexit-cabinet-34883035.html

From what I'm reading Theresa May is very far....... to the Left.... of Angela Eagle.

view-source:http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36793178

pluralist
14-07-2016, 10:46 PM
The Independent (Ireland) for once gets their front page headline right with "Britain Lurches to the RIght with May's Pro-Brexit Cabinet". More or less an entire new Cabinet, bar two.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/britain-lurches-to-the-right-with-mays-probrexit-cabinet-34883035.html

I don't necessarily see it as a huge shift to the right.

David Davis is one of the few consistent Tory (or any) libertarians in UK politics. He has been a critic of the security & surveillance state and a defender of civil liberties for example. I welcome his return to the front line of politics, though, mind you, I can't see him being able to give much vent to his libertarian principles in the role he has been appointed to.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_(British_politician)#Civil_liberties

Sidewinder
14-07-2016, 11:43 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-stupid-to-abolish-department-of-energy-and-climate-change_uk_5787b1cde4b0f4bc5946cde6

Increasingly looking like a lurch to the ignorant reactionary extreme right.

Glad I'm as far away from that demented country as it is possible to be while remaining on the same planet!!

pluralist
14-07-2016, 11:57 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-stupid-to-abolish-department-of-energy-and-climate-change_uk_5787b1cde4b0f4bc5946cde6

Increasingly looking like a lurch to the ignorant reactionary extreme right.

Glad I'm as far away from that demented country as it is possible to be while remaining on the same planet!!

Sidewinder, you are amusing at times, unfortunately I suspect that it's mainly unintentional.

You managed to go to the other side of the planet to settle in an English speaking country with the British Queen as head of state? Seriously, well done. Fair play, you. :D

pluralist
14-07-2016, 11:59 PM
May's blueprint: going full-on Keynesian, pump-priming the UK economy - sounds to me very much like a firm rejection of Osbornite austerity, with Brexit as the excuse.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/the-blueprint-for-brexit-how-britain-will-negotiate-out-of-the-e/

A far right blueprint, a lurch to the extreme reactionary right? Hardly sounds like it, and certainly not on economics - although as always the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

C. Flower
16-07-2016, 08:34 PM
A map of all the countries offended by Boris Johnson so far.

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/updated-a-map-of-all-the-countries-boris-johnson-has-offended--W1zaTLC63rW

Apjp
16-07-2016, 11:33 PM
Sidewinder, you are amusing at times, unfortunately I suspect that it's mainly unintentional.

You managed to go to the other side of the planet to settle in an English speaking country with the British Queen as head of state? Seriously, well done. Fair play, you. :D

Why do you need to engage in such petty personal attacks?

Maybe he did not base his move purely on that, but that he was expressing a relief at not being directly affected by the neo-colonialist politics playing out in London and Stormont?

I live in Poland. Do you think I like politics or religion in this country? It is easier to disengage though a lot of the time for me due to the language barrier on things like politics, which I can use an excuse to profess ignorance despite my private view that this is generally an ignorant country when it comes to politics, religion, sexuality, social liberalism and knowledge of the outside world(despite progress in speaking and understanding, I find reading to be more than a challenge). However, I am sure there are no end of sneering people in Ireland who would accuse me of tolerating racism, religious bigotry, homophobia etc. simply by living here. Next to all that, having an inbred medieval-opionated monarch as symbolic head of a de facto liberal Republic like NZ is pretty much nothing to be ashamed of.

I have quietly disowned the more extreme people here who tried to be my friends and got on with life. I really think immigrants have no control over the host environment so all they can do is adapt and try not to become hostage to dogma. Wherever people stay permanently, or in my case for the medium term, is their choice but it may have been due to work, a desire to escape an old way of life, and it should be respected. I am pretty sure some people here would label me a communist but I don't care about their inbred illiteracy and irrational hatred of leftwing politics. Why should Sidewinder lose sleep over a symbolic non-issue? The real issue is how does local politics affect your life, your potential, your prospects of settling down and contributing as an immigrant in the host country, and in that respect Britain is a world beater right now, even threatening to kick out many EU citizens based purely on racism alone.

Politics is not the primary reason a working class or lower middle class person emigrates.

I think it is very brave to move to NZ permanently. Personally I could not do so, though I have no desire to return 'home'(the house I grew up in is no longer occupied by my father or younger siblings and 3/5 of us have emigrated anyways) as I firmly believe life there would be terrible. My sister is thinking of moving home from America and I have told her it's a terrible idea.

People are entitled to express contempt based on their new homeland if they want but ridiculing them on a symbolic technicality is really petty.

I actually think Britain is going to rapidly become the worst place in Europe to materially live pretty soon bar the extremely poor countries to the east and south of me. Their poverty levels are already on a par with Poland's. I am sure their inequality levels are only behind America's and maybe the Republic's(except their social welfare system in Britain and the North is even worse than ours!!!!).

pluralist
17-07-2016, 04:48 AM
I actually think Britain is going to rapidly become the worst place in Europe to materially live pretty soon bar the extremely poor countries to the east and south of me.

I doubt it.

C. Flower
17-07-2016, 01:53 PM
I doubt it.

Do you ?

I'm just reading today's Sunday Times on homelessness in London.

It is sparse on stats, but says the average life expectancy of homeless women is 43.

Manchester is awash with homeless young people.

What Ireland and the UK has in common that is driving up homelessness is an increasing proportion of the adult population being on incomes that are not enough to cover costs of private rental of a flat or house.

pluralist
17-07-2016, 09:14 PM
Do you ?

I'm just reading today's Sunday Times on homelessness in London.


Can't find anything in the Sunday Times on this, did you mean the Observer?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/sadiq-khan-shame-of-london-homeless

C. Flower
17-07-2016, 09:26 PM
Can't find anything in the Sunday Times on this, did you mean the Observer?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/sadiq-khan-shame-of-london-homeless

Apologies, it is in today's Observer.

pluralist
17-07-2016, 09:28 PM
No worries, I'm just very mildly p.eed-off that I've done what I rarely do these days and given Mr Murdoch €3 of my hard-earned. ;)

I assume this is the piece, the earlier link is Sadiq Khan's commentary:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jul/16/homelessness-london-survey-evolve

Apjp
18-07-2016, 11:55 AM
I doubt it.

I think people deserve a little more respect than a 3 word put down?

Why do you doubt it? Look at the massive inequality and the coming recession there.

DCon
18-07-2016, 10:16 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnqdiReWEAAljxE.jpg

pluralist
19-07-2016, 03:31 AM
I think people deserve a little more respect than a 3 word put down?

Why do you doubt it? Look at the massive inequality and the coming recession there.


Ok. I'll try an elongated version of 'I doubt it'.

When you speak of massive inequality in Britain, I know you are correct.

When you speak of coming recession there, while the numbers are not yet in, I think you are almost certainly correct. I would be surprised if there is not a serious and significant recession in the UK. I hope that it is not too severe. I hope that it is not too severe partially because I am well aware that Tory/(Lib Dem) policies have already and very directly caused the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands.

Yes, it's true that, as Paul Weller put it 30 years ago, "the class war is real and not mythologised". That much is clear to me, and from what I've read of your posts on here, it's clear to you also, and I think it's clear to most semi-intelligent people that don't have vested interests in the 1%'ers and the FIRE economy and their well-financed media interests.

But, also, most of the revolutionary 'solutions' that have been tried in the past don't seem to have worked, or when they have almost worked, have caused massive loss of life. And that's not something I can go along with.

When I see people that claim to be on the left go along with the likes of Merkel's or indeed Peter Sutherland's or Bono's well-financed policy and propaganda to further increase massive inwards immigration into Europe (a policy which - very clearly and obviously - feeds into massive downward pressure on wages for the 99%), because, you know, it's 'racist' not to do so, I just think, wow. I think, what's WRONG with you people (I don't mean you personally, obviously, I just mean a lot of people that claim to be on the left or of the left that fail to draw obvious conclusions from mass immigration policies - or if they do draw the obvious conclusions, they deny the logic that is in their own heads and fail to state so publicly - because, in my view, of a fear they have of being accused of racism).

If you are prepared to honestly debate the issues, then it's potentially plausible that we could have, if not a meeting of minds, then at least, a more or less honest debate. But if you are part of the hippie-wonderland 'open the borders' club, then, it's perhaps less likely.

Count Bobulescu
20-07-2016, 01:58 AM
Did someone mention recession? Guardian....

IMF cuts UK growth forecasts following Brexit vote (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/19/imf-cuts-uk-growth-forecasts-following-brexit-vote)

C. Flower
20-07-2016, 03:25 PM
Did someone mention recession? Guardian....

IMF cuts UK growth forecasts following Brexit vote (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/19/imf-cuts-uk-growth-forecasts-following-brexit-vote)

What's the IMF track record in predictions ?

Also, growth is not everything. If what grows is the movable feast of corporate profits (as here in Ireland) and what shrinks is the income and living standard of ordinary citizens, then I'm not bothered about it.

Shaadi
20-07-2016, 04:37 PM
Maybe the thread should say Post Brexit UK rather than Post Brexit Britain?

Northern Ireland is likely to end up being the most shook up part of the UK after a Brexit. The status quo of CNRs often not bothering to vote or voting for neutral parties in elections may abruptly come to an end as a Post Brexit NI leaves them stuck in a Little Britain scenario where they will no longer be part of the same superstate as the Republic. Where once they could have the best of both worlds re no border between North and South and peace and stability while having full access to the Single Market, Farm Subsidies, Erasmus programmes and free movement throughout the EU. Post Brexit there'll have to be a customs border between North and South and they'll be isolated from the EU and to a lesser extent the ROI.

That's a recipe for CNR/Neutrals unhappiness with the future status quo in NI.

C. Flower
20-07-2016, 11:35 PM
Maybe the thread should say Post Brexit UK rather than Post Brexit Britain?

Northern Ireland is likely to end up being the most shook up part of the UK after a Brexit. The status quo of CNRs often not bothering to vote or voting for neutral parties in elections may abruptly come to an end as a Post Brexit NI leaves them stuck in a Little Britain scenario where they will no longer be part of the same superstate as the Republic. Where once they could have the best of both worlds re no border between North and South and peace and stability while having full access to the Single Market, Farm Subsidies, Erasmus programmes and free movement throughout the EU. Post Brexit there'll have to be a customs border between North and South and they'll be isolated from the EU and to a lesser extent the ROI.

That's a recipe for CNR/Neutrals unhappiness with the future status quo in NI.

Will the U.K. most likely not go for the Single Market option ? That seems to be the talk.

What will be the killer will be the inevitable border.

Which is why Enda is now rooting for a United Ireland, presumably as part of some kind of Commonwealth scenario?

pluralist
21-07-2016, 12:53 AM
Which is why Enda is now rooting for a United Ireland, presumably as part of some kind of Commonwealth scenario?


I hope so. I favour a deal for 32 county reunification combined with return to the Commonwealth (provided no joining NATO).

barrym
21-07-2016, 08:23 AM
Apart from the slagging, this thread would seem to indicate we have no clue what post B will be, anywhere.

The IMF shuffles the cards, again, the Euro group is bogged down, Inda is waffling, as usual, and we have no housing for the thousands of bookies and spivs from London who will soon arrive in the IFSC.

Now, what will happen? Take yer pick from the following.

No article 50 before 1.1.2017.
No reduction in export of Mercs and Beamers to UK.
UK still needs Polish plumbers, so, a selective immigration policy will replace free movement.
NI/RoI border will remain open, EU will pay for supposed increased surveillance in Rosslare and Dublin Airport....
UK agriculture will implement less food production controls, even more sh*te burgers will be sold by Larry G.
Our recent 220 million increase in EU contribution will go up even more, to pay for UK reduction, to be compensated by more money for farmers (todays news already), s long as Hogan is in post.
Our tax efficient arrangements for multi-nationals will be watered down, compensated by less supervision.

Fraxinus
21-07-2016, 02:07 PM
Will the U.K. most likely not go for the Single Market option ? That seems to be the talk.

What will be the killer will be the inevitable border.

Which is why Enda is now rooting for a United Ireland, presumably as part of some kind of Commonwealth scenario?

When SF mooted the idea immediately after the UK referendum result I remember Matt Carthy being shot down with some venom by a FFer and to a lesser degree of venom by a Fger on a radio one panel. Now Gombeen Martin and gombeen eile Enda basically coming to terms with the idea. Though yes, I'd say FG would only love us to go grovelling back for Commonwealth status.

Shaadi
21-07-2016, 05:03 PM
Will the U.K. most likely not go for the Single Market option ? That seems to be the talk.

What will be the killer will be the inevitable border.

Which is why Enda is now rooting for a United Ireland, presumably as part of some kind of Commonwealth scenario?









Donald Tusk, the EU council president, added that the leaders had made it “crystal clear” that access to the single market “requires acceptance of all four EU freedoms – including freedom of movement

There can be no single market à la carte.”





http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/eu-leaders-begin-summit-talks-without-uk-for-first-time

http://www.factcheckni.org/facts/would-brexit-lead-to-a-customs-frontier/

The EU might as well put a closing down sign up if they allow the UK the kind of access it wants, because that would start a contagion of exit demands in EU countries. Free movement of EU citizens is the killer for the UK, if the UK have to sign up for that then their citizens will be mightily peed off at the Tories.

The border thing will be a rolling chain of external events that'll either increasingly reinforce the concept that the existing status quo in NI has ceased to exist ( such as a customs border with the south ) or things will progress smoothly and NI will stay satisfied.

Much will depend on how much London will put into holding Scotland and ensuring a Brexit lite. An ugly divorce type Brexit will set minds spinning in NI and a UK recession with many more English Tory cutbacks for NI would activate a sleeping electorate.

As regards Enda and the border speech, who knows what motivated him, maybe keeping up with Mickey Martin's border speech, maybe the Germans and French have sent a mischievous keep NI in the EU possibility to send a message to the UK re Scotland if the UK gets snippy in negotiations. Ye can't trust that Enda or Micheal are just exercising nationalist tendencies without outside prompting. The UK is not yet finished with the ROI and has been putting the arm around us for some unknown reason long before a Brexit was probable.

DCon
24-07-2016, 07:16 PM
Hammond Says U.K. Exploring Free-Trade Deal With China: BBC

Count Bobulescu
24-07-2016, 08:54 PM
The date at the bottom of this piece is June 24, the day after...........China says UK will need 500 negotiators and ten years..........

China laughs at Britain's hope to negotiate quick free trade deal ... (http://shanghaiist.com/2016/06/24/china_brexit_response.php)
http://shanghaiist.com/2016/06/24/china_brexit_response.php

C. Flower
26-07-2016, 02:09 PM
The date at the bottom of this piece is June 24, the day after...........China says UK will need 500 negotiators and ten years..........

China laughs at Britain's hope to negotiate quick free trade deal ... (http://shanghaiist.com/2016/06/24/china_brexit_response.php)

http://shanghaiist.com/2016/06/24/china_brexit_response.php

Yes, this story brought home the complexity involved in unscrambling an egg.

It seems likely that the Whitehall Mandarins will be trying to devise a Brexit that is not a Brexit.

I wonder how Teresa May will try to divert the public's attention from this ? Any thoughts ?

C. Flower
26-07-2016, 08:33 PM
I hope so. I favour a deal for 32 county reunification combined with return to the Commonwealth (provided no joining NATO).

If there was reunification then there would be no need to be in a Commonwealth too.

And no capacity to make any independent decision about joining NATO or anything else.

C. Flower
26-07-2016, 08:34 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/eu-leaders-begin-summit-talks-without-uk-for-first-time

http://www.factcheckni.org/facts/would-brexit-lead-to-a-customs-frontier/

The EU might as well put a closing down sign up if they allow the UK the kind of access it wants, because that would start a contagion of exit demands in EU countries. Free movement of EU citizens is the killer for the UK, if the UK have to sign up for that then their citizens will be mightily peed off at the Tories.

The border thing will be a rolling chain of external events that'll either increasingly reinforce the concept that the existing status quo in NI has ceased to exist ( such as a customs border with the south ) or things will progress smoothly and NI will stay satisfied.

Much will depend on how much London will put into holding Scotland and ensuring a Brexit lite. An ugly divorce type Brexit will set minds spinning in NI and a UK recession with many more English Tory cutbacks for NI would activate a sleeping electorate.

As regards Enda and the border speech, who knows what motivated him, maybe keeping up with Mickey Martin's border speech, maybe the Germans and French have sent a mischievous keep NI in the EU possibility to send a message to the UK re Scotland if the UK gets snippy in negotiations. Ye can't trust that Enda or Micheal are just exercising nationalist tendencies without outside prompting. The UK is not yet finished with the ROI and has been putting the arm around us for some unknown reason long before a Brexit was probable.

Well, Theresa May has made it clear that she is not interested in an open border with the EU in Ireland. If the UK puts its arm around Ireland, you can be sure it is a stranglehold. She probably expects Ireland to be out of the EU in 5 years, in so far as she's bothered.

barrym
27-07-2016, 07:09 AM
I wonder how Teresa May will try to divert the public's attention from this ? Any thoughts ?

She will have no problem as long as the supine Irish media offer such gems as reporting that Kenny is the first leader to visit her. I know if is silly season but such pathetic, slavish, rehash of Merrion St handouts.
I will say it again, when will we have the courage to be Europeans, not UK lackies?

pluralist
27-07-2016, 09:13 AM
gojam
‏@gojam_i_am

@theresa_may & Enda Kerry meet - "Common approach to passenger data" sounded intriguing and is bound to be missed as MSM focus on CTA


Ignoring the shpelling mistake, I think this tweeter picked up on something interesting.

pluralist
27-07-2016, 09:19 AM
If there was reunification then there would be no need to be in a Commonwealth too.

I meant as a concession to Unionist opinion to help get the vote over the line. We are constantly being told that there is no point in holding a referendum as it would not get a majority in the Six Counties. I think it would be interesting to see if re-joining Commonwealth would help as a confidence-building move for Unionist voters.


And no capacity to make any independent decision about joining NATO or anything else.

There is no such capacity to make such independent decisions as things stand. That has nothing got to do with the Commonwealth though.

pluralist
27-07-2016, 10:56 AM
Yes, this story brought home the complexity involved in unscrambling an egg.

It seems likely that the Whitehall Mandarins will be trying to devise a Brexit that is not a Brexit.

I wonder how Teresa May will try to divert the public's attention from this ? Any thoughts ?

She doesn't need to. She has appointed Brexiters to the key Brexit posts. It's their hot potato now, so if/when they f.**** up it's not on her!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Female_of_the_Species_(poem)

;)

C. Flower
27-07-2016, 05:15 PM
Ignoring the shpelling mistake, I think this tweeter picked up on something interesting.

Doesn't this mean that both Ireland and UK will continue to toady to the CIA/US and hand the data over ?

C. Flower
27-07-2016, 05:17 PM
I meant as a concession to Unionist opinion to help get the vote over the line. We are constantly being told that there is no point in holding a referendum as it would not get a majority in the Six Counties. I think it would be interesting to see if re-joining Commonwealth would help as a confidence-building move for Unionist voters.



There is no such capacity to make such independent decisions as things stand. That has nothing got to do with the Commonwealth though.

Surely no State can be compelled to join NATO ?

Interesting, a United Ireland within the UK/ sorry / Commonwealth. The devil would be in the detail.

Sadly, we are not in the days where we could do that and then ring up TM from Canada and tell her we have opted out of the latter, after all. :)

pluralist
27-07-2016, 05:55 PM
Doesn't this mean that both Ireland and UK will continue to toady to the CIA/US and hand the data over ?

If that is your view, then can you present an alternative strategic plan for Ireland as an independent nation?

pluralist
27-07-2016, 06:03 PM
Surely no State can be compelled to join NATO ?

I don't understand the question. To me, NATO is an outdated idea. If you want my view, I think we should have gotten sensible and joined NATO decades ago, but given that we didn't, certainly not now. Every country should assess threats and opportunities in its own interests. Given that we didn't join NATO in the past, that turned out ok, on balance and we shouldn't now, IMHO.

My idea is for a union of north western European states - Ireland, Britain, the Scandinavians, maybe bring in Denmark and Iceland and Holland. I'd grant it's a mildly eccentric idea, but as Fintan O'Toole suggests in a recent column we live in strange times.


Interesting, a United Ireland within the UK/ sorry / Commonwealth. The devil would be in the detail.

The devil is always in the detail, that's how geo-politics and international agreements work. It's probably part of the reason why we've had (relative) peace since 1945. Particularly for small windswept islands off the coasts of slightly larger islands that apparently used to run an empire....


Sadly, we are not in the days where we could do that and then ring up TM from Canada and tell her we have opted out of the latter, after all. :)

We never could.

barrym
29-07-2016, 07:29 AM
No chance in hell of an alternative or subset of the EU. Fintan is (very unlike him) dreaming. Let us not mix up passenger data, NATO, etc., with post Brexit. We have passenger data 'cos US airlines have to have it under patriot act, no political chance of that being refused. OTOH, less than or partial control of free movement internally is now.too expensive to implement, so, fudge seeking is the name of the game.

C. Flower
29-07-2016, 08:40 AM
She doesn't need to. She has appointed Brexiters to the key Brexit posts. It's their hot potato now, so if/when they f.**** up it's not on her!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Female_of_the_Species_(poem)

;)

She could well sink in the mire of her own making.

This is a bigger game than internal Tory politics.

riposte
29-07-2016, 05:17 PM
The arrival of the Troika and the theft of 64 Billion from the people of Ireland made Cromwell's sojourn in Ireland look like a picnic. The EU is nothing more than camoflage for German domination..... I'm no UK lackey ..... neither am I an EU lackey.... although there is a lot of them about. We didn't spend a thousand years fighting the British only to settle for slavery under the German jackboot .. fascists in 1914....... fascists in 1939.... and fascists today...... It's in their DNA

pluralist
29-07-2016, 05:37 PM
The arrival of the Troika and the theft of 64 Billion from the people of Ireland made Cromwell's sojourn in Ireland look like a picnic. The EU is nothing more than camoflage for German domination..... I'm no UK lackey ..... neither am I an EU lackey.... although there is a lot of them about. We didn't spend a thousand years fighting the British only to settle for slavery under the German jackboot .. fascists in 1914....... fascists in 1939.... and fascists today...... It's in their DNA

I think that's over the top to be honest. I am no great Europhile but I have always had the impression that the Germans have learned from their history, barring the odd neo-Nazi nutter.

riposte
29-07-2016, 06:46 PM
I think that's over the top to be honest. I am no great Europhile but I have always had the impression that the Germans have learned from their history, barring the odd neo-Nazi nutter.

The Nazis never invaded any country ...... the Germans (20 Million of them) invaded half of Europe and half of Africa and tried to enslave them. Now they have succeeded under the guise of the EU.

Apjp
29-07-2016, 11:36 PM
The Nazis never invaded any country ...... the Germans (20 Million of them) invaded half of Europe and half of Africa and tried to enslave them. Now they have succeeded under the guise of the EU.

Can we please distinguish the German elite and the brainwashed army of the 1930's from the German public as of today. Capitalist elites everywhere try to dominate one another internationally.

Otherwise this comment should be censured for racism. Angela Merkel is a hypocrite who has always served big business and whose apparent humanity towards Syrians was only done when it meant popularity, as the deal with Turkey has shown, and if she had any humanity she would not have treated the Greeks the way she did. However anything that replaces her in Germany is likely, such as an extreme right coalition of the CDU's crazy wing/AFD/Pegida, who no doubt you admire, that it would be far worse for Europe, Ireland, the refugees fleeing terror and would no doubt mean renewed tensions with increasingly nationalist French neighbours.

Apjp
29-07-2016, 11:42 PM
I think that's over the top to be honest. I am no great Europhile but I have always had the impression that the Germans have learned from their history, barring the odd neo-Nazi nutter.

There are no shortage of right wing racist nutters online.

barrym
30-07-2016, 08:25 AM
The arrival of the Troika and the theft of 64 Billion from the people of Ireland

I am ignoring the rest of the quote, already well responded to and I agree. But, the 64bn was partly created by our own inertia, we did not rein in the ridiculous lending post euro. Any fool could have seen that the reduction from 8-10% to 3-5% was going to fuel speculation. Yesterdays decision to put away three of the perps was one result of speculation but it is clear that the regulators office gave it the nod.

Subsequently the Germans have donned the ackboots, BUT, for local political reasons.

Post brexit it will get worse, if we let it, that is the crux. Latest stress testing shows that we have done f all to rectify the situation. Borrowing costs nothing for the banks, in fact they are getting bns a month for free, but AIB and BoI are still at risk.

Whatever happens post brexit we will still be in the euro, we could not survive outside. We need to take cogniscence of that for our future. Unfortunately Mme Merkel is part of that, get on with it.

Fraxinus
01-08-2016, 11:52 AM
Worrying statistics.


A surge in anti-immigrant hate crimes after the U.K.’s EU referendum was particularly pronounced in areas of the country that strongly voted Leave, local media reports.

Figures obtained by the Independent under freedom of information rules from local police forces’ databases show significant spikes in hate crimes in the most Euroskeptic areas.

Lincolnshire, where 75 percent of people voted to quit the EU — the highest percentage in the U.K. — saw a 191 percent increase in hate crimes. The local police force recorded 42 race- and religion-motivated incidents in the week of the EU referendum and 64 such crimes the week after, compared to 22 during the week corresponding to the EU referendum in 2015.

The pattern was repeated in other Brexit heartlands such as Kent, which recorded a pro-Leave vote of nearly 60 percent, and a leap of 143 percent in hate crimes in the week following the referendum.

The most common hate crime was public harassment, with police also recording dozens of physical assaults, some of which resulted in actual bodily harm.

The news comes alongside data showing an overall rise in race-related hate crimes across the U.K., including reports of groups of people demanding passers-by prove they can speak English, Swastika graffiti across the country and reports of assaults, arson attacks and racial abuse.
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-hate-crimes-surge-in-top-brexit-areas-report/

C. Flower
02-08-2016, 09:20 AM
Worrying statistics.

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-hate-crimes-surge-in-top-brexit-areas-report/

Racism is running amok in Britain.

Also in Ireland, according to a report today by the European Network Against Racism based on the "Ireport.ie" website.

The Brexit vote has split older workers want a return to the working conditions and services won in the post - part due to trade union militancy and retreat on the part of British capitalism, partly due to the massive wealth appropriated by British Imperialism which made it possible to pay higher wages, from young workers who lack any experience of effective militancy and who see mobility in Europe and economic expansion of Europe as their best chance for a decent future. The former lends itself to racism when migrants are blamed instead of globalisation. The latter lends itself to the kind of right wing movement we saw in Ukraine. These a pair of opposing dead-ends. Neither of these prospects have reality for the many millions of unemployed and underpaid people in Europe, or the U.K. or Ireland. The opposites also existing in this situation are the Brexit vote as an expression of resistance to EU neoliberalism and the young Remain vote as an expression of opposition to racism and xenophobia, a new internationalism in young people who are widely travelled, who socialise, work and study across national boundaries.

The anti-racism and opposition to neo-liberalism need to be brought together in one movement: for that to take place a serious case has to be made for a socialist alternative to globalist capitalism.

barrym
04-08-2016, 10:38 AM
So, it isn't any different in post-Brexit Ireland?

John Fitzgerald this am is predicting "full employment" = <4%, by 2019, due to boost in the building trade post Coveney.... where have we seen that before. He says no nett post-Brexist effect on employment, increased exporting to EU, and FDI exporters.

We'll see.

Donal Og
05-08-2016, 09:16 AM
Yes , Barry.I well remember McCreevys defiant speech when the ECB made some sensible comments about our impending doom! He basically said Germany and France were failed states who should emulate our wonderful free market model. Look Mum : no hands �� A copy of this speech should be pinned up in every bank.But in fairness , it was the govts job to take the heat out of the economy by *cough cough * raising some taxes on the housing market.But as that is verboten under the sacred texts of Thatcher her just tried to bluff it out.

barrym
06-08-2016, 07:32 AM
To rub in the salt, I see in yesterdays papers that McC pockets 50k+ of my money as a pension and presumbly a lot more from the EU, in this post Brexit largesse.

Pass the black plastic bag....

riposte
08-08-2016, 11:33 PM
Can we please distinguish the German elite and the brainwashed army of the 1930's from the German public as of today.
.

German elite. nothing.... 20 Million Germans joined Hitler's armies and marched across Europe and Africa in their jack boots . and were more than happy to push people into Gas chambers ....... and they'd do again tomorrow given the chance ....... it's in their DNA.

eamo
08-08-2016, 11:43 PM
German elite. nothing.... 20 Million Germans joined Hitler's armies and marched across Europe and Africa in their jack boots . and were more than happy to push people into Gas chambers ....... and they'd do again tomorrow given the chance ....... it's in their DNA.

That is not true. The German people are probably the most civilized and welcoming people in Europe. They respect work and workers. I should know I worked in Germany as a building worker and was treated respectfully by all, including my German co-workers. You don't know what you are talking about.

riposte
09-08-2016, 12:10 AM
You don't know what you are talking about.

Do you want me to show you pictures?

http://www.politicalworld.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=1166&d=1470697838

Sidewinder
09-08-2016, 03:45 AM
You don't know what you are talking about.

Unfortunately that attitude is remarkably still quite common in Ireland. Bout 6 years ago I was going on a driving tour round Western Europe - bunch of lads driving/camping through 8 countries in 2 weeks, great laugh, anyways in the weeks leading up to it I quite literally had a variation of this conversation at least a dozen times

"So what yiz doing for the holliers"

"Driving round Europe with the lads, gonna be a laugh"

"Oh aye, where ye going then?"

"Well Larne - Stranrear, drive down through Scotland and England, pick up x, ye remember him, in Lahndin, then ferry to Dieppe in France, then up through Belgium and Holland, probably stop off in Brugges and Amsterdam [cue knowing winks and sniggers], then down into Germany, maybe" *gets cut off*

"Germany?!" *suspicious glare* "Ye one o them nazi boys now then are ye?"

"Errrr.....WTF?"

Pure mental.

pluralist
09-08-2016, 05:20 AM
"Well Larne - Stranrear


Typo there I think.

From a very quick look on Google, that route sounds sensible, not least because it avoids the madness of Dover-Calais. How long did it take to drive from Dieppe to Amsterdam?

pluralist
09-08-2016, 05:28 AM
Do you want me to show you pictures?

We've all seen them, and we can all put up photos from the net of victims of war crimes. Doesn't really prove d**k, does it?

And no, I'm not interested in playing a game of 'which country was worse in X/Y/Z war' from decades ago (I'd respond in exactly the same way if someone put up a photo of British-committed atrocities in order to try and 'prove' that 'demuns' were officially the worst ever).

Sidewinder
09-08-2016, 06:01 AM
From a very quick look on Google, that route sounds sensible, not least because it avoids the madness of Dover-Calais. How long did it take to drive from Dieppe to Amsterdam?

We did it in one day, stopping for lunch in Brugges, so it was only 6-ish? hours driving. Night or two getting wasted in the Dam as you do, then straight down to Koblenz which was a nice wee medieval German town all castles and cobbled streets where the Rhine meets the Mosel, also a one-day drive - roaring down the Autobahn at 220kmh in a big Audi A6 :cool: Got pretty drunk there on cheap-but-excellent local beer in a great wee rock bar. Took the scenic route along the Mosel wine country to Luxembourg which was a lovely drive but was not a fan of Luxembourg town, too many wine bars full of coked-up bankers ;) Then Sedan in France (complete sh1thole, best never mentioned again); then back up to a wee beach resort town I know not far from Dieppe, then all the way back to Derry. Good old holiday.

riposte
09-08-2016, 12:30 PM
We did it in one day, stopping for lunch in Brugges, so it was only 6-ish? hours driving. Night or two getting wasted in the Dam as you do, then straight down to Koblenz which was a nice wee medieval German town all castles and cobbled streets where the Rhine meets the Mosel, also a one-day drive - roaring down the Autobahn at 220kmh in a big Audi A6 :cool: Got pretty drunk there on cheap-but-excellent local beer in a great wee rock bar. Took the scenic route along the Mosel wine country to Luxembourg which was a lovely drive but was not a fan of Luxembourg town, too many wine bars full of coked-up bankers ;) Then Sedan in France (complete sh1thole, best never mentioned again); then back up to a wee beach resort town I know not far from Dieppe, then all the way back to Derry. Good old holiday.

Sounds lovely...... you didn't dropn in to see Auschwitz, Birkenau, Belzec, Bergen-Belsen, Buchenwald, Chelmno, Dacha,,. Ebensee or Flossenbürg while on your holiday.

"When the Second World War
Came to an end
We forgave the Germans
And then we were friends
Though they murdered six million
In the ovens they fried
The Germans now too
Have God on their side."

BoB Dylan

riposte
09-08-2016, 12:46 PM
(I'd respond in exactly the same way if someone put up a photo of British-committed atrocities in order to try and 'prove' that 'demuns' were officially the worst ever).

That's what I wonder about when I hear people calling me a racist because of my unforgiving attitude to the Germans responsible for the deaths of more than 50 Million ...... not in ancient history......... but twice in living memory ...... and yet having being reared as an Irish person ... and as a Republican........ I have heard the Brits being demonised universally thoughout my life very often for acts committed in the 12th century........ and it continues and is regarded as quite acceptable all day and every day..... TODAY.

I suspect that the ingrained hatred of the Brits is in our DNA...... and because the Germans fought the Brits..... we give give them a free pass depite their perennial genocidal habits..... Well not me!

Fraxinus
09-08-2016, 12:48 PM
Obviously what happened in Germany under the NAZI regime was industrial but plenty of other nations don't come out of the inter-war period looking too good either....Lithuania and Hungary, to name a few.

pluralist
09-08-2016, 10:00 PM
We did it in one day, stopping for lunch in Brugges, so it was only 6-ish? hours driving. Night or two getting wasted in the Dam as you do, then straight down to Koblenz which was a nice wee medieval German town all castles and cobbled streets where the Rhine meets the Mosel, also a one-day drive - roaring down the Autobahn at 220kmh in a big Audi A6 :cool: Got pretty drunk there on cheap-but-excellent local beer in a great wee rock bar. Took the scenic route along the Mosel wine country to Luxembourg which was a lovely drive but was not a fan of Luxembourg town, too many wine bars full of coked-up bankers ;) Then Sedan in France (complete sh1thole, best never mentioned again); then back up to a wee beach resort town I know not far from Dieppe, then all the way back to Derry. Good old holiday.

Sounds cool. An Audi A6 sounds like the ideal motor for that kind of a trip.

Apjp
09-08-2016, 11:22 PM
Obviously what happened in Germany under the NAZI regime was industrial but plenty of other nations don't come out of the inter-war period looking too good either....Lithuania and Hungary, to name a few.

Lithuanian and Hungarian nationalism are two of the most toxic ideologies around.

Austria could still elect a Nazi President.

But let's blame the German people because their elite were smarter than ours in who foots the bill.

The comments by Riposte are racist and retarded.

I must have met at least 100 odd Germans in the last 5 year's. Some of them were rightwing, none of them were racist.

In fact German rightwingers are typically less rightwing than the 'we cannot afford healthcare or decent social welfare/ vulture funds and landlords have the right to own as many houses as they want' Irish wallies.

Irish society has progressed in recent year's only because it is now more difficult for FF and FG to force every crazy Thatcherite scheme through without public resistance but there is still a slight majority in favour of the neoliberal status quo who in fact would all have endorsed the last 7 year's austerity and bank bailouts in the way they voted(FF AND FG control 93/158 seats).

A hung Dail is good because it makes austerity and bank handouts a lot less doable.

Why blame the Germans when the ECB and Irish politicians are the main problem-the German elite just took advantage of our own cowardice and stupidity to save their own banks.

Apjp
09-08-2016, 11:30 PM
I have also never heard a single racist statement or joke uttered by a German, of all the nationalities I have encountered.

Their hatred of racism is very real and prevalent in their everyday life. Anyone who has spent even a month or two in Germany or speaking German with Germans every day knows this. They have very solid worker's rights compared to Ireland and most other EU nations.

Sadly Poland is not so progressive due to it's soviet past. Homelessness here is terrible, and the public attitudes to it are immoral. Not to mind the casual racism of everyday life and the overwhelming religious presence. Social welfare for foreigners is non-existent. Go to some of Poland's neighbours and it is even worse as there are even more Nationalist countries in Europe. The positives where I currently live are mostly to be seen in the cultural sphere and the educational sector and FDI sector.

Germany, The Czech Republic, and maybe the Nordic countries are possibly the best places in the EU in terms of Social Democracy in law and social attitudes towards work and workers. Merkel simply could not do in her own country what she has insisted be done to Greece(which was multitudes worse than what we got, humiliating and all as it was).

You have to have some experience of a country and/or their language/culture to actually understand it.

What are the odds Riposte has lived outside of the Republic or Britain?

Donal Og
10-08-2016, 11:38 AM
Living in rural Cork I know lots of German people as well as Brits. I'm afraid the latter are way more racist.I'm not sure many Irish people have anti British feelings now. Indeed I have seen people wearing t- shirts and trainers incorporating union flag logos etc.here in ' rebel' Cork. Likewise , I have no idea what atrocities the British might have carried out in the 12th c . Britain had long ceased to exist by then of course and would not be reassembled til 1707. Certainly , racism is rife in The eastern and central Europe. Or so my friend based in Budapest tells me. In short : anti racism is a work in progress.Poverty and unemployment plays a huge part , surely?

barrym
22-08-2016, 07:34 AM
This thread has descended into (the usual?) slagging. While racism may have been an element in the vote and may even be an element in certain thinking in certain other member states, it doesn't alter the fact that a major change will take place.

We are directly affected. Can we concentrate on what we should be doing? All I see/hear is hand wringing and ridiculous suggestions of altering our relationship with UK. There are 25 other states in the EU.

C. Flower
18-09-2016, 12:13 PM
This thread has descended into (the usual?) slagging. While racism may have been an element in the vote and may even be an element in certain thinking in certain other member states, it doesn't alter the fact that a major change will take place.

We are directly affected. Can we concentrate on what we should be doing? All I see/hear is hand wringing and ridiculous suggestions of altering our relationship with UK. There are 25 other states in the EU.

The British seem to be equally unconcentrated and confused.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/what-does-brexit-mean-with-divorce-talks-looming-britain-still-doesnt-have-a-clue/2016/09/16/b2cb7718-79d1-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b

We are directly affected, but people seem to be in denial about the extent of inevitable change. Brexit holds more implications for Ireland than it does for the rest of the UK, which at least is a reasonably robust and independent economic entity.

The Republic relies partly on US FDI, now under serious attack, and import/export with the U.K, along with many special arrangements and treaties, including the Good Friday Agreement. All U.K. citizens in the north are entitled to Irish / EU passports.

The political implications of a policed land border across the Ireland are massive but I have not seen any article which teases out even the immediate consequences, never mind the more indirect impacts.

barrym
19-09-2016, 06:46 AM
The British seem to be equally unconcentrated and confused.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/what-does-brexit-mean-with-divorce-talks-looming-britain-still-doesnt-have-a-clue/2016/09/16/b2cb7718-79d1-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b

We are directly affected, but people seem to be in denial about the extent of inevitable change. Brexit holds more implications for Ireland than it does for the rest of the UK, which at least is a reasonably robust and independent economic entity.

The Republic relies partly on US FDI, now under serious attack, and import/export with the U.K, along with many special arrangements and treaties, including the Good Friday Agreement. All U.K. citizens in the north are entitled to Irish / EU passports.

The political implications of a policed land border across the Ireland are massive but I have not seen any article which teases out even the immediate consequences, never mind the more indirect impacts.

Yes, of course we are, every member state is, we more than most. The reason is we are seduced by the ease of access to the UK. Brexit is an opportunity to widen our scope and vision.

As you say US investment is shaky, we will be put under pressure to conform, we will probably lose the Apple case. All that is part of the negotiation for brexit.

As to the border, technology will sort some of the container scanning aspect, covering the tax questions. For the people border issues we will probably have to, with EU help, increase the checks on movement of people across it. Either way, it is a UK problem, not ours.

Overall, it will serve us better to concentrate on working with the rest of the EU.

Caora
19-09-2016, 07:51 AM
The way things are going, it might be in the interests of the EU to turf Ireland out when the British leave. For all their guff about Ireland being 'at the heart of Europe' the country has presented probably a larger headache to the EU for the size of the country than any other in recent decades.

SInce 2001 Ireland has:


Voted no twice to EU treaties, forcing re-negotiations and delays on the rest of the Union;
voted in/tolerated and incompetent and embarrassing political/business elite, who endangered the viability of the euro with their behaviour pre the financial crisis;
Acted as an effective tax-haven, siphoning off FDI from other EU states.


Brexit will have forced EU decision makers to decide which countries are necessary to the survival of a weakened EU. With Ireland's geographical and cultural remoteness from other EU states, forming the only EU land-border with the UK, and our position under the UK defence umbrella (a not insignificant concern now moves are afoot to deepen defence collaboration between member states), it's quite feasible that Ireland may be shifted towards the exit by EU leaders. Non-compliance with the ECJ ruling in the Apple case may provide the figleaf for the EU to strong-arm Ireland out or for planners in Dublin to leave in the event of punitive Brexit terms, the better to maintain open borders and current treaty arrangements with the UK.

pluralist
19-09-2016, 09:57 AM
Cameron has a lot to answer for.

Gerd Muller
19-09-2016, 10:13 AM
“The uncertainty surrounding the UK’s future outside of the EU and the associated economic risks, which we think are pronounced and predominantly skewed to the downside, will gradually take its toll, particularly on investment, as businesses start dealing with the new Brexit reality,” she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/12/sp-says-post-brexit-bounce-could-be-temporary

I'm not convinced Article 50 will ever be triggered, too much at risk. The problem with the Brexit Referendum was there was no Plan B, there was no Plan A either.

random new yorker
20-09-2016, 12:03 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/12/sp-says-post-brexit-bounce-could-be-temporary

I'm not convinced Article 50 will ever be triggered, too much at risk. The problem with the Brexit Referendum was there was no Plan B, there was no Plan A either.


there was a date for this Article 50 to be triggered, jan 2017 or something like that..

does anyone here know?

Apjp
20-09-2016, 01:40 AM
The way things are going, it might be in the interests of the EU to turf Ireland out when the British leave. For all their guff about Ireland being 'at the heart of Europe' the country has presented probably a larger headache to the EU for the size of the country than any other in recent decades.

SInce 2001 Ireland has:


Voted no twice to EU treaties, forcing re-negotiations and delays on the rest of the Union;
voted in/tolerated and incompetent and embarrassing political/business elite, who endangered the viability of the euro with their behaviour pre the financial crisis;
Acted as an effective tax-haven, siphoning off FDI from other EU states.


Brexit will have forced EU decision makers to decide which countries are necessary to the survival of a weakened EU. With Ireland's geographical and cultural remoteness from other EU states, forming the only EU land-border with the UK, and our position under the UK defence umbrella (a not insignificant concern now moves are afoot to deepen defence collaboration between member states), it's quite feasible that Ireland may be shifted towards the exit by EU leaders. Non-compliance with the ECJ ruling in the Apple case may provide the figleaf for the EU to strong-arm Ireland out or for planners in Dublin to leave in the event of punitive Brexit terms, the better to maintain open borders and current treaty arrangements with the UK.

The EU cannot legally force anyone out.

barrym
20-09-2016, 07:53 AM
All of this adds up to the all but inescapable conclusion that we are heading towards a deal in which c"ontrol over immigration is likely to take priority over favourable single market access, which in turn implies a hard Brexit."

A quote from today's edition of the weekly Guardian Brexit weekly summary, a good read, imo.

The quote is based on their assessment of recent statements by Davies, Verherthof (sp) the Eur Parl Brexit negotiator, and Junker. Nñ

Shaadi
20-09-2016, 09:10 AM
The way things are going, it might be in the interests of the EU to turf Ireland out when the British leave. For all their guff about Ireland being 'at the heart of Europe' the country has presented probably a larger headache to the EU for the size of the country than any other in recent decades.

SInce 2001 Ireland has:


Voted no twice to EU treaties, forcing re-negotiations and delays on the rest of the Union;
voted in/tolerated and incompetent and embarrassing political/business elite, who endangered the viability of the euro with their behaviour pre the financial crisis;
Acted as an effective tax-haven, siphoning off FDI from other EU states.


Brexit will have forced EU decision makers to decide which countries are necessary to the survival of a weakened EU. With Ireland's geographical and cultural remoteness from other EU states, forming the only EU land-border with the UK, and our position under the UK defence umbrella (a not insignificant concern now moves are afoot to deepen defence collaboration between member states), it's quite feasible that Ireland may be shifted towards the exit by EU leaders. Non-compliance with the ECJ ruling in the Apple case may provide the figleaf for the EU to strong-arm Ireland out or for planners in Dublin to leave in the event of punitive Brexit terms, the better to maintain open borders and current treaty arrangements with the UK.

Big picture stuff.

The EU has Military/Imperial ambitions and having the departing UK surrounded is tactically desirable so Ireland is a nice chess piece to have.

Ireland is a useful net food producer for the EU, A situation which will not change regardless of whether the EU slaps down our tax haven status or not.

Having been through the wringer in the last decade the Irish electorate folded and threw their lot in with the EU for good by endorsing the FST which ceded overall budgetary control to the EU's rulebook.

The body politik in Ireland is almost entirely pro-EU.

The only danger to Ireland's EU membership comes from a potential showdown between the EU and Ireland over Corporation Tax. Ireland is very unlikely to be led out of the EU by its leadership class over this matter as the matter will be dealt with through the legal and legislative route. What happens will happen and Ireland as always will adapt to circumstances.

The EURO is our currency, we're up to our neck in debt and need that backstop to keep our interest rates down. That would change if the EU kept falling apart and Yankee Doodle our real master decided to steer us into an economic alliance with the UK/Sterling.

Currently it's all a bit tetchy and the grand alliance between the EU and USA is weaker than it has been for as long as I can remember. That relationship is becoming unpredictable, it would be expected to be in their mutual interests to continue as before but events could damage that alliance to a point where the EU effectively splits from the US as it begins to assert it's own Superpower ambitions.

The end goal for the Franco-German Alliance is to become a United and powerful force in their own right, whether that's directing a full scale Superpower of 500 million people or as a smaller entity comprised of themselves and a few close allies.

Caora
20-09-2016, 10:25 AM
Big picture stuff.

The EU has Military/Imperial ambitions and having the departing UK surrounded is tactically desirable so Ireland is a nice chess piece to have.

Ireland is a useful net food producer for the EU, A situation which will not change regardless of whether the EU slaps down our tax haven status or not.

Having been through the wringer in the last decade the Irish electorate folded and threw their lot in with the EU for good by endorsing the FST which ceded overall budgetary control to the EU's rulebook.

The body politik in Ireland is almost entirely pro-EU.

The only danger to Ireland's EU membership comes from a potential showdown between the EU and Ireland over Corporation Tax. Ireland is very unlikely to be led out of the EU by its leadership class over this matter as the matter will be dealt with through the legal and legislative route. What happens will happen and Ireland as always will adapt to circumstances.

The EURO is our currency, we're up to our neck in debt and need that backstop to keep our interest rates down. That would change if the EU kept falling apart and Yankee Doodle our real master decided to steer us into an economic alliance with the UK/Sterling.

Currently it's all a bit tetchy and the grand alliance between the EU and USA is weaker than it has been for as long as I can remember. That relationship is becoming unpredictable, it would be expected to be in their mutual interests to continue as before but events could damage that alliance to a point where the EU effectively splits from the US as it begins to assert it's own Superpower ambitions.

The end goal for the Franco-German Alliance is to become a United and powerful force in their own right, whether that's directing a full scale Superpower of 500 million people or as a smaller entity comprised of themselves and a few close allies.
Tactically surround the UK, a nuclear power, with what, the FCA? Ireland is a political and economic satellite of the UK, we joined the EU only because the UK was, if/when the Brits leave we will too or be levered out.

Shaadi
20-09-2016, 11:57 AM
Tactically surround the UK, a nuclear power, with what, the FCA? Ireland is a political and economic satellite of the UK, we joined the EU only because the UK was, if/when the Brits leave we will too or be levered out.

WAS not is. The political and economic World including Ireland and the UK has changed vastly in the last few decades. Think of the 1970s, the Troubles, The Cold War, a pre-EU World, China wasn't on the radar, no IFSC, powerful Trade Unions and the UK caught somewhere between their Imperial past represented by a Yes Minister culture and a nascent modernity evolving in Thatcher era.

Ireland ain't a satellite of the UK anymore in anything other than common trade and movements. The Security embrace of the UK amounts to them keeping themselves in the loop as regards what goes on in our State security institutions and various paramilitary elements on the Island. The military embrace means SFA outside of the NI dimension and providing air cover for a highly unlikely aerial threat to Western interests in Ireland.

Do you seriously think a more centralised EU isn't planning to expand its military reach to its most Western flank now that the UK is removing itself from the EU and that the EU won't force member states including Ireland to spend more on their defence capabilities. At the same time the UK itself is facing serious financial strain as its decades long spending binge has to come to an end.

The EU and US yank our chains and the UK-Ireland relationship is relegated to a common interests business partnership and dealing with the changed NI situation.

Count Bobulescu
20-09-2016, 04:27 PM
The EU cannot legally force anyone out.

Yes they can, after two years, IF the country in question has invoked Article 50. That's the reason for the delay by T. May in invoking 50.

Count Bobulescu
20-09-2016, 04:30 PM
Do you seriously think a more centralised EU isn't planning to expand its military reach to its most Western flank now that the UK is removing itself from the EU and that the EU won't force member states including Ireland to spend more on their defence capabilities. At the same time the UK itself is facing serious financial strain as its decades long spending binge has to come to an end.

The EU and US yank our chains and the UK-Ireland relationship is relegated to a common interests business partnership and dealing with the changed NI situation.
You may be right, but you can't deny the EU is much more worried about its eastern flank then its western one. From an EU perspective, Ireland, if it's a thought on defense matters, is an afterthought.

Shaadi
20-09-2016, 07:19 PM
Tactically surround the UK, a nuclear power, with what, the FCA? Ireland is a political and economic satellite of the UK, we joined the EU only because the UK was, if/when the Brits leave we will too or be levered out.The objective would not be to surround the UK, the objective would be to have the EU region to the West of the Continent militarily prepared for the sake of it and to force Ireland to set aside a portion of GDP to pay for ( EU made where possible ) an enhanced Irish defence/offence force as part of the EUs defences.

We joined the EEC just 28 years after WW II had ended. Now they are/were letting in every country in the Continent ( within reason ) that wanted to join. Since when have they started kicking out countries? Methinks you have an exaggerated sense of the UKs importance to the EU. Sure they've got a decent sized economy but they and the EU will trade away regardless of the UK leaving the EU and the UK ain't going nuking anyone or getting involved in any war with the EU.

Events may change the direction the EU project heads in, they had a plan for a Unified superpower but since the economic crash much of the World has become volatile and it'd be impossible to say what way the affairs of political and economic entities will go. The World is in a pretty fkd up state at the moment with no end in sight to the uncertainty and I have no illusions about our lack of importance in it, we're just bobbing along and boxing as our Govts see fit in a sea of Globalization and of Alliances.

Shaadi
20-09-2016, 07:25 PM
You may be right, but you can't deny the EU is much more worried about its eastern flank then its western one. From an EU perspective, Ireland, if it's a thought on defense matters, is an afterthought.I agree, we are just a cog in their machine as it were but they are intent on building an EU military machine and they will push their agenda on countries because that's how this EU project is meant to be evolving.

C. Flower
20-09-2016, 08:10 PM
I agree, we are just a cog in their machine as it were but they are intent on building an EU military machine and they will push their agenda on countries because that's how this EU project is meant to be evolving.

Just reading The Spanish War by Wolfe Tone, first published 1790.

A short but brilliant piece-

"It is convenient, doubtless, for England, for her instruments in this country, to cry up the "good of empire" because it lays the power of Ireland at her disposal"

"In the use of the world "Empire" we are the dupes of a sound"

"We are to be kept in pupilage, without a navy, or the rudiments of a navy, that we may be retained in subjection and dependence on England, and so be compelled to purchase her protection, whenever her interest and pride may think proper to plunge us into war".

"What is the boasted protection of England? When has she ever held it forth that she did not first make it necessary."

"What have been the wars that England has embarked on for Irish interests? Her most determined supporters cannot allege one."

"Hers is the quarrel, hers the glory, hers the profit, and nothing to us but the certainty of danger and death.

"Everything is beneficial to Ireland that throws us on our own strength".

For "Empire" read EU, where applicable.

random new yorker
20-09-2016, 10:20 PM
Do you ?

I'm just reading today's Sunday Times on homelessness in London.

It is sparse on stats, but says the average life expectancy of homeless women is 43.

Manchester is awash with homeless young people.

What Ireland and the UK has in common that is driving up homelessness is an increasing proportion of the adult population being on incomes that are not enough to cover costs of private rental of a flat or house.


Hmmm.. Could it be that UK high rates of homelessness of young people might be

Related to the fact kids get kicked out of the house very early on?? (Compare to Southern European cultures for example )

Apjp
21-09-2016, 12:18 AM
Yes they can, after two years, IF the country in question has invoked Article 50. That's the reason for the delay by T. May in invoking 50.

They cannot legally force anyone out. This requires a country to demand it first.

Apjp
21-09-2016, 12:25 AM
You may be right, but you can't deny the EU is much more worried about its eastern flank then its western one. From an EU perspective, Ireland, if it's a thought on defense matters, is an afterthought.

As someone who lives within a few hours of the 'Eastern Flank', I actually wonder if people are aware there are regular 5 hour delays at the Polish-Ukrainian border. It is easily the most secure and heavily policed border in the region bar the EU Belarussian one or the EU Russian ones themselves. You cannot even take more than two packs of fags, actual packs, not boxes.

But ignoring common sense and my own opinion for a second: Russia isn't going to invade Poland as it is, along with France and Germany, eager to end most of the sanctions placed on it and vice versa. The Minsk 2 agreement is being seriously supported by the Russian government and there is a very real possibility of a permanent peace soon in Eastern Ukraine as a chip in the wider poker game. There is an ongoing ceasefire at present.

Eastern Ukraine appears to be a bit like Northern Ireland in the 1980's. The rest of the country is safe. The neighbours use it for propaganda while privately supporting peace efforts for their own economic and geopolitical interests.

There are huge economic opportunities for all parties if Ukraine can be 100% sorted out so this seems to be more important than the moral high ground on either side. Ukrainian friends of mine regularly bring vegetables back over the border, the quality of food there is reportedly so poor.

The reality is the Polish political elite just want to spend more on defence and it is always popular to complain about Russia-you can bet they will do nothing to derail EU-Ukraine-Russian talks because they don't care all that much as long as it does not affect their position.

The main EU powers are trying to get closer to Russia economically, not America.

Russiaphobia is also not good for the idea or the future of an EU. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all have Russian minorities and stigmatising people like America wants us to do has political consequences down the line.

Count Bobulescu
22-09-2016, 08:51 PM
They cannot legally force anyone out. This requires a country to demand it first.
So if a country demands to be "forced out" can it be legally done, yes or no?

Count Bobulescu
22-09-2016, 08:54 PM
Cancel duplicate

Count Bobulescu
22-09-2016, 08:57 PM
As someone who lives within a few hours of the 'Eastern Flank', I actually wonder if people are aware there are regular 5 hour delays at the Polish-Ukrainian border. It is easily the most secure and heavily policed border in the region bar the EU Belarussian one or the EU Russian ones themselves. You cannot even take more than two packs of fags, actual packs, not boxes.

But ignoring common sense and my own opinion for a second: Russia isn't going to invade Poland as it is, along with France and Germany, eager to end most of the sanctions placed on it and vice versa. The Minsk 2 agreement is being seriously supported by the Russian government and there is a very real possibility of a permanent peace soon in Eastern Ukraine as a chip in the wider poker game. There is an ongoing ceasefire at present.

Eastern Ukraine appears to be a bit like Northern Ireland in the 1980's. The rest of the country is safe. The neighbours use it for propaganda while privately supporting peace efforts for their own economic and geopolitical interests.

There are huge economic opportunities for all parties if Ukraine can be 100% sorted out so this seems to be more important than the moral high ground on either side. Ukrainian friends of mine regularly bring vegetables back over the border, the quality of food there is reportedly so poor.

The reality is the Polish political elite just want to spend more on defence and it is always popular to complain about Russia-you can bet they will do nothing to derail EU-Ukraine-Russian talks because they don't care all that much as long as it does not affect their position.

The main EU powers are trying to get closer to Russia economically, not America.

Russiaphobia is also not good for the idea or the future of an EU. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all have Russian minorities and stigmatising people like America wants us to do has political consequences down the line.
Really not sure what point you're trying to make here, anti US, anti EU, pro Russian?

eamo
22-09-2016, 10:19 PM
.......................................
.................................

Russiaphobia is also not good for the idea or the future of an EU. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all have Russian minorities and stigmatising people like America wants us to do has political consequences down the line.

The Russian minorities in the Baltic States were discriminated against after the break up of the USSR. A blind eye was turned to this behavior by the EU. Like always, bigger games were being played and the plight of a victimised people was of little consequence.

Apjp
23-09-2016, 12:04 AM
Really not sure what point you're trying to make here, anti US, anti EU, pro Russian?

It is not really a pro anyone point, and nor should it be, just an opinion on where I am and what I see.

Russiaphobia undeniably exists in this region for obvious reasons and some countries even discriminate officially against their own Russian Minorities. I am thinking of the Baltic EU States rather than The Ukraine in this case(as Russian in The Ukraine is widespread among Ukrainians anyways) who themselves often cry foul of Russia's human rights record while behaving appallingly domestically.

The wider point is that Russiaphobia is just popular political rhetoric in slavic countries, even in Poland where Russian is a foreign business language/language of the Ukrainian/Belarussian minorities.

The bigger countries all want a peace deal in The Ukraine and my guess is we will get one before long.

Boris Johnson was sidestepped in Kiev as he doesn't matter. France, Germany and Russia are handling the negotiations with Kiev. America isn't trusted by the French or Germans much anymore either is my guess as they've been trying to direct their own EU foreign policy for a while(they oppose and even undermine sanctions-everyone in Poland knows many EU products go through Belarus via Poland to Russia).

barrym
23-09-2016, 08:31 AM
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/09/23/34768/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FlWWh+%28Tax+Research+UK +2%29

Interesting, Murphy says they have to launch Art 50 next year if they want to be out before their next GE. Since the Tories want to win they will need to be out before a GE.

random new yorker
23-09-2016, 03:28 PM
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/09/23/34768/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FlWWh+%28Tax+Research+UK +2%29

Interesting, Murphy says they have to launch Art 50 next year if they want to be out before their next GE. Since the Tories want to win they will need to be out before a GE.

i read somewhere they would/had to activate Article 50 in Jan 2017 so i was trying to get confirmation in post #75..

i guess your post may hint at the *why they would activate 50 next year

but until next GE a lot of water will run under the bridge

from outside Brexit does not look like a victory for the Tories given that Labour played a substantial part in the loss of the EU cause in Britain .. from my angle it looks like a victory of good'ole British supremacy rather than any other reason(s) .. so, i suppose they will be threading this one very carefully cos if the big Financial Houses head to Frankfurt .. oh well.. everyone will pay the price.

Donal Og
23-09-2016, 07:42 PM
My brother is a senior civil servant in the UK , poor bastard. His bosses in the Dept told him ' 5-7 years' to negotiate Brexit.One even said 10. Lots of onanistic nonsense in the Brit tabloids about booming Britain. The Bank is printing money and the Fed have kept rates down ....so why not? Besides , nothing has happened yet.May's challenge is to take the credit for Brexit while quietly sliming out of it...

random new yorker
23-09-2016, 11:21 PM
My brother is a senior civil servant in the UK , poor bastard. His bosses in the Dept told him ' 5-7 years' to negotiate Brexit.One even said 10. Lots of onanistic nonsense in the Brit tabloids about booming Britain. The Bank is printing money and the Fed have kept rates down ....so why not? Besides , nothing has happened yet.May's challenge is to take the credit for Brexit while quietly sliming out of it...

yea i wanted to pick other members brain a little

(5 years best case scenario matches what my sources say - they also say "not known at this point if it is possible")

anyway, nothing is 'impossible' so i believe if they put their minds to it + the entire UK diplomatic Corps they should be able to do it

so a friend (english) is telling me he believes - meh - May now is just stalling and hoping the whole problem goes away ?

[sometimes I misunderstand what you guys say here, so 'quietly sliming out of it' should be interpreted as "stalling and hoping the problem goes away"?]

and earlier in the week twas really fun talking to french colleague all pumped up about kicking the UK out of the Union .. he was a bit sad when i told .. hmm .. the problem is that unless the UK activates article 50 neither France or Germany can kick them out. Looks like "The People" in the continent want them out the door ..

:cool:

i'd keep them in, after all they have the best diplomatic corps around, we could put them to work twice as hard :)

Apjp
24-09-2016, 02:33 AM
yea i wanted to pick other members brain a little

(5 years best case scenario matches what my sources say - they also say "not known at this point if it is possible")

anyway, nothing is 'impossible' so i believe if they put their minds to it + the entire UK diplomatic Corps they should be able to do it

so a friend (english) is telling me he believes - meh - May now is just stalling and hoping the whole problem goes away ?

[sometimes I misunderstand what you guys say here, so 'quietly sliming out of it' should be interpreted as "stalling and hoping the problem goes away"?]

and earlier in the week twas really fun talking to french colleague all pumped up about kicking the UK out of the Union .. he was a bit sad when i told .. hmm .. the problem is that unless the UK activates article 50 neither France or Germany can kick them out. Looks like "The People" in the continent want them out the door ..

:cool:

i'd keep them in, after all they have the best diplomatic corps around, we could put them to work twice as hard :)

Well, maybe they are trying to leave asap because Labour are likely to resurge at least somewhat once Corbyn increases his mandate and the instability threatens the planned quasi-permanent Tory Rule the British elite desires.

Or maybe the French and German elections next year make the whole process pointless anyways as the EU has to abandon its' crazy plans for a political union or face oblivion.

Then again, maybe they will all agree to close the EU's borders and let the refugees drown.

Prediction is a loser's game these days sadly, or we could all make a lot of money in Paddy Power.

Donal Og
24-09-2016, 10:21 AM
Well , actually I am Irish. But I lived in London for many years. It just seems to me , the Brit govt and civil service is in shock. As apjp said, there are French and German elections next year too. A handy pretext for more delays. Then she can wait , like Micawber , for something to ' turn up'. Perhaps Trump/ Clinton will start another war? This would require her urgent attention. Battle plans ! Clever CGI mockups of tanks , planes and missiles on TV! Noble sounding Churchillian rhetoric! Talk of Brexit too divisive. Must unite. Our Boys. Postpone boring EU thing til next election.....��

Donal Og
24-09-2016, 10:22 AM
Well , actually I am Irish. But I lived in London for many years. It just seems to me , the Brit govt and civil service is in shock. As apjp said, there are French and German elections next year too. A handy pretext for more delays. Then she can wait , like Micawber , for something to ' turn up'. Perhaps Trump/ Clinton will start another war? This would require her urgent attention. Battle plans ! Clever CGI mockups of tanks , planes and missiles on TV! Noble sounding Churchillian rhetoric! Talk of Brexit too divisive. Must unite. Our Boys. Postpone boring EU thing til next election.....😂

random new yorker
24-09-2016, 04:48 PM
Well , actually I am Irish. But I lived in London for many years. It just seems to me , the Brit govt and civil service is in shock. As apjp said, there are French and German elections next year too. A handy pretext for more delays. Then she can wait , like Micawber , for something to ' turn up'. Perhaps Trump/ Clinton will start another war? This would require her urgent attention. Battle plans ! Clever CGI mockups of tanks , planes and missiles on TV! Noble sounding Churchillian rhetoric! Talk of Brexit too divisive. Must unite. Our Boys. Postpone boring EU thing til next election.....��

It would give them enough time to draft up a exit plan

Meanwhile you guys can use this opportunity to try to get at least one of the big financial houses to set up shop in Dublin .. (Although the city does not appear to have enough of an infrastructure, not very Cosmo, looks like a small town)

C. Flower
28-09-2016, 08:17 PM
It's worth remembering that Ireland and Britain joined the EU in the same year, and that in spite of 30 years membership, Ireland's and Britain's economies are still joined at the hip.

Ireland successfully leveraged its interface situation betwee the US, EU and UK. These relationships are all in for a shock.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0c0cbfe6-7025-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907.html#axzz4LZwECwx3

barrym
29-09-2016, 07:57 AM
It's worth remembering that Ireland and Britain joined the EU in the same year, and that in spite of 30 years membership, Ireland's and Britain's economies are still joined at the hip.

Time for a "hip job"? Our opportunity?

Oh no, Kenny want's an all-island conf., Unionists say F off. That is progress?

barrym
14-11-2016, 03:28 PM
is this the same thread as "brexit" ? confused, not an unusual situation.

Wanted to mention the IT piece today about a leaked memo- never mind the crap about the laughs, I see we are looking for support for a soft(er) than ever brexit. More supine, forelock tugging...., goes with the puff about being phoned by bumpety bump before the merry month of may...

Donal Og
14-11-2016, 06:24 PM
is this the same thread as "brexit" ? confused, not an unusual situation.

Wanted to mention the IT piece today about a leaked memo- never mind the crap about the laughs, I see we are looking for support for a soft(er) than ever brexit. More supine, forelock tugging...., goes with the puff about being phoned by bumpety bump before the merry month of may...

I don't think a soft Brexit is on offer.Our economy will take quite a hit.Surely Kenny's best plan is to ask Frau Merkel to help defray the cost. Or are we to be punished for our loyalty to the EU concept? Thats how I'd pitch it ....

barrym
15-11-2016, 04:33 PM
Of course a soft brexit is not on offer, nothing is at the mo, but Kenny et al are angling for a special case even softer - no border (implication, we will look after your immigration issues) staying in the single market on some fudge (implication, we have no idea where we will be able to sell our low grade, low cost stuff if Tesco don't like tariffs), free movement between UK & RoI (implication, oirish passport holders will be free to move in and out of UK, even if they don't meet the grandfather rule...) and so on.

Our only hope may be that Bulgaria has voted for a russky loving PM, that will soften the cough of a few others.... there may yet be no brexit,it needs 100% vote.

Interesting times, no?

C. Flower
17-11-2016, 11:49 AM
Just before the Brexit vote, Brand v Farage - there is a very strong and broad political strand in the younger generations in Britain that strongly opposes racism.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI7qhucmLxM&app=desktop

C. Flower
19-11-2016, 12:06 PM
Marian Finucane is interviewing Gina Miller this morning.

Miller is the woman who took the British Government to Court over using the Royal Prerogative to put Brexit through, rather than going through Parliament. The Government is appealing through the Supreme Court and all 11 judges will hear the case.
She is very definitely anti Brexit, although sweetly reasonable about the antis point of view.
She is from Guayana, and has received revolting racial abuse by some pro-Brexiteers.

The Royal Prerogative is a reactionary legal instrument most often used by Britain to go to war without a Parliamentary vote, so I agree with her case. Her case is that Brexit affects domestic law, and that the RP has only applied to foreign action.

She seems to me to be in the right in this. It is amazing it came down to one individual to do this. In Ireland, there were patent massive breaches of Constitution entailed in the way the Bank Guarantee and Bailout were shoved through. Miller was able to find a legal firm prepared to act probono.

I don't believe that any Irish firm would have acted pro bono over the bailout - I put out requests at the time and got nowhere. They all have their faces too deep in the trough.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/gina-miller-article-50-brexit-eu-supreme-court-2016-8

Donal Og
19-11-2016, 12:17 PM
That's true C.Flower. Just like no Irish firm would handle Michael Smith's anti corruption efforts , re the abuse of the planning process. If I remember rightly he was forced to use a Belfast law firm? Just think : one fifth of England's population died during the English civil war....so Cromwell could establish the sovereignty of Parliament. Now ,apparently , it's a mere detail.

riposte
19-11-2016, 01:59 PM
so Cromwell could establish the sovereignty of Parliament.

Yeah .... Saint Oliver.... patron saint of democracy.



Now ,apparently , it's a mere detail.

and the seventeen and a half million who voted for Brexit are an even smaller detail.

pluralist
19-11-2016, 03:03 PM
And yet some Brexiters seem confident that when it goes to Parliament, Parliament will validate the referendum...in spite of Remain MPs being in the majority? Is this bravado from Brexiters or is May expected to whip the Tories into voting for Brexit?

And where does Corbyn stand on all of this? ( Does he even know himself? )

pluralist
19-11-2016, 03:05 PM
She seems to me to be in the right in this. It is amazing it came down to one individual to do this. In Ireland, there were patent massive breaches of Constitution entailed in the way the Bank Guarantee and Bailout were shoved through. Miller was able to find a legal firm prepared to act probono.

I don't believe that any Irish firm would have acted pro bono over the bailout - I put out requests at the time and got nowhere. They all have their faces too deep in the trough.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/gina-miller-article-50-brexit-eu-supreme-court-2016-8

The bolded part is not entirely correct. She was backed by a crowd-funding campaign and (probably more importantly) a heavyweight London law firm.

Count Bobulescu
19-11-2016, 11:56 PM
Marian Finucane is interviewing Gina Miller this morning.

Miller is the woman who took the British Government to Court over using the Royal Prerogative to put Brexit through, rather than going through Parliament. The Government is appealing through the Supreme Court and all 11 judges will hear the case.
She is very definitely anti Brexit, although sweetly reasonable about the antis point of view.
She is from Guayana, and has received revolting racial abuse by some pro-Brexiteers.

The Royal Prerogative is a reactionary legal instrument most often used by Britain to go to war without a Parliamentary vote, so I agree with her case. Her case is that Brexit affects domestic law, and that the RP has only applied to foreign action.

She seems to me to be in the right in this. It is amazing it came down to one individual to do this. In Ireland, there were patent massive breaches of Constitution entailed in the way the Bank Guarantee and Bailout were shoved through. Miller was able to find a legal firm prepared to act probono.

I don't believe that any Irish firm would have acted pro bono over the bailout - I put out requests at the time and got nowhere. They all have their faces too deep in the trough.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/gina-miller-article-50-brexit-eu-supreme-court-2016-8

Read somewhere that if she loses in the UK she will not take the case to Europe. If true, that suggests a money issue, rather than a legal one because it forecloses on any and all reasons why the UK court might reject her claim. Wouldn't be surprised to see a crowdfunding campaign to support her.

barrym
20-11-2016, 02:25 PM
Not just "any" law firm, Mishcon de Raya (?) aren't they the crowd who represented Mrs Prince Charles, the first?

Not sure why Finucane got into it at all, nothing to do with us.

Europe wouldn't take the case, imo, not concerning European law?

Donal Og
20-11-2016, 07:55 PM
Parliament is sovereign or it isn't. May will be exercising Crown Prerogative in peace time. A bit extreme , some might say but it's beginning to look as if it's all academic anyway , the EU is not going to budge.

barrym
22-11-2016, 09:23 AM
Interesting summary of where they are in todays Guardian brexit weekly email. Heavy hitters the Dutch and German finance ministers say there is no a la carte menu, out or not out, there are no other options.

DCon
22-11-2016, 09:46 AM
Interesting summary of where they are in todays Guardian brexit weekly email. Heavy hitters the Dutch and German finance ministers say there is no a la carte menu, out or not out, there are no other options.

The Danes, seen as an ally pre-BREXIT decision, are also not in favour of easy options for the UK

barrym
26-11-2016, 01:59 PM
But it is grand, Inda has said the two years wont be enough time. That is OK, then, I'll stay on, see the Pope in and out, wait until Brexit bites then feck off.

DCon
30-11-2016, 08:05 PM
Novel suggestion from a Welsh UKIPper



“First Minister, given that a large proportion of all Irish exports, both to the UK and the EU, pass along the M4 motorway, will the First Minister explore the possibility of part of the costs for the M4 improvement scheme being borne by the Irish government, given that three quarters of all Irish exports to the EU and the UK pass along that road?”


“The member seems to be urging on me that I should urge the Irish government to apply for European funding to pay for Welsh roads. He has been a member of a party and indeed campaigned in June to end European funding for Welsh roads,” Minister Jones said.

“He cannot, I suggest, go to another EU member state and ask them to make up the shortfall that he himself campaigned to engineer in the first place.”




http://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/ukip-politician-thinks-ireland-should-pay-for-welsh-motorway-with-eu-funds-35257292.html

barrym
12-12-2016, 06:56 AM
Latest Irish Times poll, preserve trade with UK, number one. Depends on the questions you asked, this or this....

House of Lords says we need a side deal. Read the evidence, not the overall opinion. But, watch this space, forelock tugging is easier than looking for new markets.

If we could get a side deal we might as well rejoin the empire. The negotiations will get messy, it is quite possible we would cop out of a hard brexit and persuade the other 26 to let us have a side deal.

Have we no pride in our country?

Shaadi
12-12-2016, 02:40 PM
Latest Irish Times poll, preserve trade with UK, number one. Depends on the questions you asked, this or this....

House of Lords says we need a side deal. Read the evidence, not the overall opinion. But, watch this space, forelock tugging is easier than looking for new markets.

If we could get a side deal we might as well rejoin the empire. The negotiations will get messy, it is quite possible we would cop out of a hard brexit and persuade the other 26 to let us have a side deal.

Have we no pride in our country?

Of course we don't, we've been brought up in a culture where the media and politicians have very deliberately told us that doffing the cap is the profitable thing to do.

Donal Og
12-12-2016, 04:16 PM
A very interest article in today's Guardian by Steve McAuley .He suggests that England and Wales detach from the UK , at least in the sense of nomenclature. This would leave the New UK ( Scotland , N Ireland) still within the EU , which would still have 28 members. It would also solve the border issue of course. A common travel area for the former UK would be easy to arrange.City firms could simply relocate to Edinburgh , Belfast or Dublin. The Queen could still be head of state if the majority so wish. Quite clever I think.Therefore ...doomed

barrym
13-12-2016, 07:42 AM
.Therefore ...doomed

Fraid so, mores the pity. The little ones have no separate negotiating rights, afaik. If it happened could you imagine the slagging between the four of them? Great idea, worth pushing, just for the craic.

barrym
10-01-2017, 10:34 AM
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but.... Does anyone on here think Hogan's intervention in the Brexit discussion is a) important and b) likely to change the Merrion St mindset?

C. Flower
10-01-2017, 11:33 AM
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but.... Does anyone on here think Hogan's intervention in the Brexit discussion is a) important and b) likely to change the Merrion St mindset?

Didn't Enda leap into some kind of action today ?

The big complaint from all sides is that the Government is being too quiet. The squeaky wheel theory.

We need a thread on Post Brexit Ireland I think. Please do start one if you would like to.

Gerd Muller
21-09-2018, 09:56 AM
Will Global Britain be anything like Cool Britannia?


Global Britain

The “Global Britain” strategy essentially embodies an extreme free market drive long dreamed of by elements of the corporate and financial elite. It will take the form of bilateral trade agreements (most notably with Trump’s America) and a bonfire of regulations.

If you thought leaving the European Union would avert the EU-US trade agreement, or Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), think again. A free trade deal with Trump’s America could be TTIP magnified times 10 leaving the UK exposed without the negotiating power of the EU. It will aggressively open up the NHS and public services to US corporate takeover and lock in privatisation.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/brexit-britain-what-will-it-look-like-nhs-trade-deal-trump-ttip-xenophobia-a7677046.html

The Moggies of this world will thrive and the John and Jane Smiths won't.

Publicrealm
21-09-2018, 10:04 AM
Will Global Britain be anything like Cool Britannia?


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/brexit-britain-what-will-it-look-like-nhs-trade-deal-trump-ttip-xenophobia-a7677046.html

The Moggies of this world will thrive and the John and Jane Smiths won't.


But, but..

Moggy itself assures us that the opposite is true - Brexit will mean more pay, cheap beer and endless circused for the masses!

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/politics/730902/brexit-news-jacob-rees-mogg-conservative-leave-mp-beer-holidays-wages-pay?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation&spotim_referrer=recirculation

(OK - I made up the bit about circuses - but it's probably true)

mouldybags
21-09-2018, 10:06 AM
And cake, PR. Lot's and lots of cake.

C. Flower
28-09-2018, 12:29 PM
Theresa May at the UN this week was selling Post-Brexit Britain as a low tax high skill location for inward investment. The Irish model. Will this gut out inward investment from Ireland ? I would guess that the EU is not about to create conditions for the Irish model of low taxes with access to the EU market to work for post Brexit Britain. More likely will want to some extent to use the Brexit threat to force tax increases in Ireland - even that being a dangerous game.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1023138/Theresa-May-UN-speech-Brexit-Britain-UN-leaders-New-York-UN-summit

Publicrealm
28-09-2018, 01:15 PM
The UK will not have the same access to the EU market as Ireland and cannot - it has repeatedly been said - cherry-pick.

Another warning re. May's proposal for highly selective immigration from the EU to UK - it will be reciprocated by the EU:


UK nationals would suffer under skills-based immigration, EU tells Javid

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/uk-nationals-suffer-skills-eu-immigration-tories-brexit


(Can we expect further optimistic but groundless UK forecasts for the weekend?)

C. Flower
28-09-2018, 03:23 PM
The UK will not have the same access to the EU market as Ireland and cannot - it has repeatedly been said - cherry-pick.

Another warning re. May's proposal for highly selective immigration from the EU to UK - it will be reciprocated by the EU:


UK nationals would suffer under skills-based immigration, EU tells Javid

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/uk-nationals-suffer-skills-eu-immigration-tories-brexit


(Can we expect further optimistic but groundless UK forecasts for the weekend?)
"On the street" in the UK there is a huge amount of disillusion with parliamentary democracy in a portion of the older population that breeds a pie in the sky mode of thinking about Brexit. This group see every warning about Ireland, employment, economic shrinkage as 'fake news'. The other group who are pro EU are demoralised and were defeated in the last election. Corbyn, who could have rallied them on the basis of socialist internationalism and opposition to racist demagoguery, blew it and his feeble ground shifting at this stage is too little, too late.

Publicrealm
28-09-2018, 06:11 PM
"On the street" in the UK there is a huge amount of disillusion with parliamentary democracy in a portion of the older population that breeds a pie in the sky mode of thinking about Brexit. This group see every warning about Ireland, employment, economic shrinkage as 'fake news'. The other group who are pro EU are demoralised and were defeated in the last election. Corbyn, who could have rallied them on the basis of socialist internationalism and opposition to racist demagoguery, blew it and his feeble ground shifting at this stage is too little, too late.

It really is a desperate bind - brought about largely by jingoistic hubris.

There is an interesting article in today's Guardian - worth a read I think - but unlikely to be adopted by Mrs May.

It is not too late for Mrs May to join the serious conversation and distance herself from the reckless and ruinous one. It is not too late for her to address the British public over the heads of her party’s anti-Brussels ultras, standing up to fanatics whose denial of diplomatic and economic reality is making Britain a pariah in Europe. Following the demands of the most Eurosceptic fringe is a strategy that has not served any Tory leader well. Perhaps, in this last conference before Britain is due to leave the EU, Mrs May could break with party tradition and address the European question not as it is imagined by many Conservatives but as it truly affects the whole country.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/28/the-guardian-view-on-may-and-brexit-honesty-is-still-an-option

C. Flower
28-09-2018, 07:46 PM
It really is a desperate bind - brought about largely by jingoistic hubris.

There is an interesting article in today's Guardian - worth a read I think - but unlikely to be adopted by Mrs May.

It is not too late for Mrs May to join the serious conversation and distance herself from the reckless and ruinous one. It is not too late for her to address the British public over the heads of her party’s anti-Brussels ultras, standing up to fanatics whose denial of diplomatic and economic reality is making Britain a pariah in Europe. Following the demands of the most Eurosceptic fringe is a strategy that has not served any Tory leader well. Perhaps, in this last conference before Britain is due to leave the EU, Mrs May could break with party tradition and address the European question not as it is imagined by many Conservatives but as it truly affects the whole country.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/28/the-guardian-view-on-may-and-brexit-honesty-is-still-an-option

Hell would freeze over before May would read out a Grauniad opinion piece at Tory party conference.

random new yorker
28-09-2018, 08:55 PM
A very interest article in today's Guardian by Steve McAuley .He suggests that England and Wales detach from the UK , at least in the sense of nomenclature. This would leave the New UK ( Scotland , N Ireland) still within the EU , which would still have 28 members. It would also solve the border issue of course. A common travel area for the former UK would be easy to arrange.City firms could simply relocate to Edinburgh , Belfast or Dublin. The Queen could still be head of state if the majority so wish. Quite clever I think.Therefore ...doomed

Ha ! defo the most interesting solution i've read so far ..

Publicrealm
28-09-2018, 09:26 PM
Hell would freeze over before May would read out a Grauniad opinion piece at Tory party conference.

I agree - this is Rorke's Drift 2 - the Empires Strikes Back.

barrym
29-09-2018, 07:16 AM
The UK will not have the same access to the EU market as Ireland and cannot - it has repeatedly been said - cherry-pick.

Another warning re. May's proposal for highly selective immigration from the EU to UK - it will be reciprocated by the EU:


UK nationals would suffer under skills-based immigration, EU tells Javid

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/uk-nationals-suffer-skills-eu-immigration-tories-brexit


(Can we expect further optimistic but groundless UK forecasts for the weekend?)

Interesting. I have been wondering how the "common travel area" berween us and the UK can work after a "real" brexit. If UK citizens can travel to and from RoI without a visa after brexit, can they work here? Can they "immigrate" to RoI? How does that square with a post brexit change of immigration policy between UK and EU?

Publicrealm
29-09-2018, 11:29 AM
Interesting. I have been wondering how the "common travel area" berween us and the UK can work after a "real" brexit. If UK citizens can travel to and from RoI without a visa after brexit, can they work here? Can they "immigrate" to RoI? How does that square with a post brexit change of immigration policy between UK and EU?

I don't know the answers but I fear the issue may not have been considered at all - the relationship with the Republic doesn't appear to warrant any consideration - just vague and groundless assurances whenever it is raised.

barrym
30-09-2018, 06:41 AM
I don't know the answers but I fear the issue may not have been considered at all - the relationship with the Republic doesn't appear to warrant any consideration - just vague and groundless assurances whenever it is raised.

Yes, I get the impression that the common travel thing is to be part of the inevitable fudge. If brexit is nasty then it could be problematic. Bizarre really, since it was only introduced as a means of avoiding issuing passports to the Irish in the UK in the 1920s.

DCon
30-09-2018, 07:22 AM
the fudge could be to allow it as we are not in Schengen

ergo Brits coming here will still need a passport to get onto the Continent


But we are not in Schengen as the Brits did not join. Could we join post BREXIT?

hollandia
30-09-2018, 09:38 AM
the fudge could be to allow it as we are not in Schengen

ergo Brits coming here will still need a passport to get onto the Continent


But we are not in Schengen as the Brits did not join. Could we join post BREXIT?

I would like to think we would join Schengen, post Brexit, of only to make the points that this chi no longer relies on the UK, and, that we see our future as part of the European project.

Norman Bates
30-09-2018, 12:40 PM
I would like to think we would join Schengen, post Brexit, of only to make the points that this chi no longer relies on the UK, and, that we see our future as part of the European project.
I'd agree that would send out the right signals. Just saying: If Iceland is a member of the Schengen cooperation and they are not even in the EU], then why not Ireland?

C. Flower
30-09-2018, 09:34 PM
Interesting. I have been wondering how the "common travel area" berween us and the UK can work after a "real" brexit. If UK citizens can travel to and from RoI without a visa after brexit, can they work here? Can they "immigrate" to RoI? How does that square with a post brexit change of immigration policy between UK and EU?

Currently there are over 100,000 UK citizens live in Ireland and of course more work here, travelling across the border each day. Many of those resident would have Irish spouses/children. But of course we voted to be able to kick out the parents of Irish born children a while back. There have been repeated assurances in the press that legal rights will remain the same for migrants in both directions. Given the insanity of the situation, I don't think it would be wise to bank on that.



https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/uk_citizens_living_in_the_rest_of_the_eu_qtK9mNX.p ng

barrym
01-10-2018, 01:08 PM
Shouldn't it read "should..."??

I have argued many times and in many places that we should have joined long ago. Our craven attitude which kept us out since the Brits would not will have to change post whatever type of brrxit we get. The Brits will, for political reasons, change the immigration rules, even if Corbyn wins hands down.

Then we will have to deal with issues like service men coming in from UK to maintain equipment??

Shaadi
01-10-2018, 02:11 PM
Jeremy Hunt 'Misjudged' Brexiteer Tories With 'Toe Curling' EU/USSR Comparison

Foreign secretary made incendiary claim during party conference speech

“The lesson from history is clear: if you turn the EU club into a prison, the desire to get out won’t diminish it will grow and we won’t be the only prisoner that will want to escape.”

In his speech, Hunt also said the EU should “never mistake British politeness for British weakness”.

“Because if you put a country like Britain in a corner, we don’t crumble. We fight,” the foreign secretary said.




https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-hunt-misjudged-brexiteer-tories-by-comparing-eu-to-ussr_uk_5bb0fd79e4b0343b3dc12eca?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmllLw&guce_referrer_cs=A0N3fnUHuTX6ZyaIGC4mUw

Does anyone think that opportunistic British politicians could continue to get up to all sorts of sham wars with the EU post-Brexit. There's nothing under fire politicians like more than a scapegoat/distraction.

How far could they go, boarding and arresting EU/Irish Boats etc? Post-Brexit shenanigans would be an opportunity sent from heaven for the "GOTCHA" headline writers

Will the Brexiteers hoopla carry on for the next decade?