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Count Bobulescu
31-01-2016, 11:08 PM
Did a search on the term "Brexit" and came up empty. If there already is a suitable ongoing thread please merge.

EU's Tusk says 'no deal' after Brexit dinner with Cameron
(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=86b2ed2aba&e=2af8d0786d)


European Council president and U.K. prime minister fail to agree in dinner on membership renegotiation.

(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=ebc8e06da2&e=2af8d0786d)
Tusk, who had hoped to present the proposals to the other 27 EU countries on Monday, ahead of a “Brexit” summit on February 18, left the dinner in Downing Street after two hours telling reporters: “No deal.” He then tweeted: “No deal yet. Intensive work in next 24 [hours] crucial.”

Shortly afterwards, Cameron tweeted: “Good meeting with @eucopresident, who has agreed to another 24 hours of talks before publishing the draft U.K. renegotiation text.”
A diplomat involved in the negotiations said they decided to try to fix the remaining issues on Monday after consulting French President François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on details regarding welfare in the U.K. for EU migrants.
“Tusk wants to see where the member states are,” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
It was not immediately clear what was holding up progress, but Cameron had been expected to press Tusk at the meeting to restrict benefits for EU migrants to the U.K. for the next seven years, according to officials involved in the negotiations.

(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=ebc8e06da2&e=2af8d0786d)Read More on http://www.politico.eu/article/eus-tusk-says-no-deal-after-brexit-dinner-with-cameron (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=7003a18333&e=2af8d0786d)

pluralist
31-01-2016, 11:24 PM
There is a thread here:

http://www.politicalworld.org/showthread.php?13693-Is-David-Cameron-doing-Ireland-a-Favour/page5#.Vq6lkeaaPOA

Bear in mind "Brexit" is a relatively new expression in the lexicon.

Count Bobulescu
31-01-2016, 11:37 PM
The term is widely understood in the US. 5,400,000 results on a Google search. :) But then if it weren't for the US, English might be extinct today.

pluralist
31-01-2016, 11:43 PM
The term is widely understood in the US. 5,400,000 results on a Google search. :) But then if it weren't for the US, English might be extinct today.

Google search result numbers mean d.ick all, and some of us on this forum are very old (some of us think of the fall of the former Soviet Union as though it happened last month, ho ho ho :D ).

But anyway, fwiw, this article claims that the expression's provenance is comparatively recent:


Background – Brexit and Brixit

The terms Brexit and Brixit first appeared in June 2012, the latter allegedly coined by a columnist in The Economist (as referenced in the second citation above), and the former by nationalist organization The British Resistance.

http://www.macmillandictionary.com/buzzword/entries/brexit.html

Count Bobulescu
31-01-2016, 11:48 PM
The US keeps the Economist afloat, so they tailor their language to appeal to a US audience.


Circulation is audited by the Audit Bureau of Circulations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audit_Bureau_of_Circulations_%28UK%29) (ABC). From around 30,000 in 1960 it has risen to near 1 million by 2000 and by 2012 to about 1.5 million.[citation needed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)] Sales inside North America were in 2007 around 54 percent of the total, with sales in the UK making up 14 percent of the total and continental Europe 19 percent. The Economist claims sales, both by subscription and at newsagents, in over 200 countries. Of its American readers, two out of three make more than $100,000 a year.[7] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist#cite_note-gainsreaders-7)

Spectabilis
01-02-2016, 12:13 AM
Brexit is widely used and understood here. The link is to a recent article in The Farmers' Journal, of all things

"Back in 1975 when the last referendum was carried so comfortably, European integration looked like the future and its opponents like little Englanders, a Dad’s Army of xenophobes.
The probability that Britain might exit the European Union has risen to about 40% according to the bookmakers’ odds. A year ago, the same probability was below 20%.
The referendum will most likely take place later this year, possibly as early as the summer, and David Cameron is hoping to secure the agreement of his European counterparts on his reform shopping list at the EU summit on 18 and 19 February.
Political commentators expect Cameron to deem his requirements to be met and he will then campaign in favour of continued British membership. As many as half of the Conservative party’s MPs are likely to take the opposite view and a minority of Labour members are also lukewarm about Europe."





http://www.farmersjournal.ie/colm-mccarthy-brexit-odds-shorter-198920/

pluralist
01-02-2016, 12:20 AM
Brexit is widely used and understood here. The link is to a recent article in The Farmers' Journal, of all things.

A link to an article from 2016? As I said, the expression has relatively recent provenance.

That Farmers' Journal article, written by Colm McCarthy, over-simplifies the 1975 debate in the UK. Many of its opponents were very far from the stereotype that he portrays. He also fails to point out that the 1975 referendum was retro-active. The UK had already been entered into the EEC by its government before the referendum took place!

In any case, can we go ahead and amalgamate this thread into the other thread.

Count Bobulescu
01-02-2016, 12:28 AM
While i have no objection in principle to merging the threads, I'll note that the title of the other thread limits discussion to the impact on Ireland, and it had only 5 posts in all of 2015, none by the thread starter. I think there should be room for discussion on the impact on Europe, which will not be negligible.

Count Bobulescu
01-02-2016, 12:33 AM
Brexit: the challenge for Europe (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://mondediplo.com/blogs/brexit-the-challenge-for-europe&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoTMTc0ODIzMjA0MjMxODIzMTg1NjIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHiVT8dZ6I8GbPNsz8EwUanrxrB1A) Le Monde Diplomatique (blog)

Shell CEO Says Oil Giant Would Be Hit By Brexit (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.ibtimes.com/shell-ceo-says-oil-giant-would-be-hit-brexit-2268663&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBCoTMTc0ODIzMjA0MjMxODIzMTg1NjIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHI4LNDSVXLPm2uHeKOP21oWFxiFw) International Business Times

Brexit will trigger collapse of EU, warns Poland (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12105727/Brexit-will-trigger-collapse-of-EU-warns-Poland.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBSoTMTc0ODIzMjA0MjMxODIzMTg1NjIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNGghgeW-TsorC2tYUVDCbCF9Ko9fA) Telegraph.co.uk

pluralist
01-02-2016, 12:36 AM
While i have no objection in principle to merging the threads, I'll note that the title of the other thread limits discussion to the impact on Ireland, and it had only 5 posts in all of 2015, none by the thread starter. I think there should be room for discussion on the impact on Europe, which will not be negligible.

Brexit is probably a sensible title, if the expression has entered the lexicon, which I guess it has.

Possibly if someone could amalgamate the posts from the other thread into this thread?

TotalMayhem
01-02-2016, 01:18 AM
But then if it weren't for the US, English might be extinct today.

http://i.imgur.com/y2Wx0.gif


While i have no objection in principle to merging the threads, I'll note that the title of the other thread limits discussion to the impact on Ireland, and it had only 5 posts in all of 2015, none by the thread starter. I think there should be room for discussion on the impact on Europe, which will not be negligible.

There are so few posts because it's not going to happen... not least because you you guys. The yanks have made threats that Britain will be treated like "China, or Brazil or India" should they leave the EU. :D

pluralist
01-02-2016, 01:22 AM
There are so few posts because it's not going to happen... not least because you you guys. The yanks have made threats that Britain will be treated like "China, or Brazil or India" should they leave the EU. :D

What year do you think this is, 1985?

China, Brazil and India are on a rising trend path. We are witnessing the long term transfer of economic and political power from
West to East. This is obvious - I've seen it, done the math, witnessed it for myself, in numerous industries and countries.

You need to put down the Tom Clancy pot-boilers and see the world as it is. If you must read pot-boilers, then I recommend: http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/15984244-the-smile-on-the-face-of-the-tiger .

I am not particularly making an argument in favour of 'Brexit', btw. I am merely pointing out that the US 'threats' you refer to are an argument in favour, rather than, as you assume, an argument against 'Brexit'.

TotalMayhem
01-02-2016, 01:30 AM
What year do you think this is, 1985?

China, Brazil and India are on a rising trend path

Not Tom Clancy, The Guardian:

US warns Britain: If you leave EU you face barriers to trading with America (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/29/us-warns-britain-it-could-face-trade-barriers-if-it-leaves-eu)


Trade representative Michael Froman says UK would face same tariffs and barriers as China, Brazil or India in the event of Brexit


You need to put down the Tom Clancy pot-boilers and see the world as it is.

Since gay readers have picked Tom Clancy as their favourite author (http://www.davidalexanderbooks.com/gays_pick_clancy.htm) I wouldn't touch his "pot-boilers" with a twelve-foot barge pole!

pluralist
01-02-2016, 01:34 AM
Not my words...

US warns Britain: If you leave EU you face barriers to trading with America (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/29/us-warns-britain-it-could-face-trade-barriers-if-it-leaves-eu)

Since gay readers have picked Tom Clancy as their favourite author (http://www.davidalexanderbooks.com/gays_pick_clancy.htm) I wouldn't touch his "pot-boilers" with a twelve-foot barge pole

Right. So apart from everything else, you are a homophobe. But you despise Putin and Russia, who are also homophobic.

You're a walking contradiction, mate.

TotalMayhem
01-02-2016, 01:54 AM
Right. So apart from everything else, you are a homophobe.

Yes, and I am also an agent of Satan, but my duties are largely ceremonial.

random new yorker
01-02-2016, 09:45 PM
While i have no objection in principle to merging the threads, I'll note that the title of the other thread limits discussion to the impact on Ireland, and it had only 5 posts in all of 2015, none by the thread starter. I think there should be room for discussion on the impact on Europe, which will not be negligible.

bump

Shaadi
01-02-2016, 09:56 PM
I've largely ignored this topic because I'm neutral on it and don't really believe the British Govt are serious about a Brexit.

If I recall correctly offering an in out referendum was a Cameron tactic to halt the rise of UKIP.

So what's the story? Is this a farce, a political charade or an unstoppable train?

riposte
01-02-2016, 10:08 PM
While i have no objection in principle to merging the threads, As you see...... I have made a compromise on this . ie. Brexit; Is David Cameron doing Ireland a Favour?




I'll note that the title of the other thread limits discussion to the impact on Ireland, and it had only 5 posts in all of 2015, none by the thread starter.

Now this sounds like you are campaigning to have my thread closed or re-named




I think there should be room for discussion on the impact on Europe, which will not be negligible.

Well then. just let the two threads run ....... there are many other threads on similar subjects .... and this is the first time I've seen a member calling for another members pre-existing thread to be re-named and/or merged.

pluralist
01-02-2016, 10:30 PM
Internet politics discussion forum fights, gah.

For some reason I am reminded of a famous quote about academic politics:


"Academic politics are so vicious precisely because the stakes are so small."

;)

Spectabilis
01-02-2016, 10:46 PM
[QUOTE=pluralist;444721]Internet politics discussion forum fights, gah.


Quite agree. Very tedious. Whatever happened to PMs?

riposte
01-02-2016, 10:57 PM
Brexit is probably a sensible title, if the expression has entered the lexicon, which I guess it has.

Possibly if someone could amalgamate the posts from the other thread into this thread?


Internet politics discussion forum fights, gah.

For some reason I am reminded of a famous quote about academic politics:

;)

I suppose that's why you joined in.

riposte
01-02-2016, 10:58 PM
[QUOTE=pluralist;444721]Internet politics discussion forum fights, gah.


Quite agree. Very tedious. Whatever happened to PMs?
I already proposed a compronise Spectabilis.

random new yorker
01-02-2016, 11:06 PM
I've largely ignored this topic because I'm neutral on it and don't really believe the British Govt are serious about a Brexit.

If I recall correctly offering an in out referendum was a Cameron tactic to halt the rise of UKIP.

So what's the story? Is this a farce, a political charade or an unstoppable train?


i agree w you but it should be discussed just on the 'off chance gee' .. they would exit

i wonder if people are goin' to be fight over 'thread credits' :)

Brexit speaks for what is is, and not for what Cameron is handing out to Ireland, cos that sounds just like more of the same, no ?

but then again you had to translate the comment by the new Finn member - now imagine the pain if i have to send you private msg to find out what thread titles mean ..

(Welcome! new Finn member)

:)


On Cameron' action i also thought it was a move to dissuade the Scots from leaving 'his' Union? right?

(somehow i am placing these events close together.. but i could be wrong)

PaddyJoe
01-02-2016, 11:10 PM
I've largely ignored this topic because I'm neutral on it and don't really believe the British Govt are serious about a Brexit.

If I recall correctly offering an in out referendum was a Cameron tactic to halt the rise of UKIP.

So what's the story? Is this a farce, a political charade or an unstoppable train?
Damm good question. Maybe there's elements of all three. Can't say I've been following the story very closely either though so I"m not really qualified to say.

pluralist
01-02-2016, 11:12 PM
I suppose that's why you joined in.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phtG-ePWiE4

Shaadi
02-02-2016, 01:05 AM
i agree w you but it should be discussed just on the 'off chance gee' .. they would exit

i wonder if people are goin' to be fight over 'thread credits' :)

Brexit speaks for what is is, and not for what Cameron is handing out to Ireland, cos that sounds just like more of the same, no ?

but then again you had to translate the comment by the new Finn member - now imagine the pain if i have to send you private msg to find out what thread titles mean ..

(Welcome! new Finn member)

:)


On Cameron' action i also thought it was a move to dissuade the Scots from leaving 'his' Union? right?

(somehow i am placing these events close together.. but i could be wrong)Brexit will affect no countries more than Ireland and the UK. The trade between the 2 countries is massive, We are their fifth largest export market and they are our largest export market. There's over €50 billion of trade at stake and tackling the UK market is a stepping stone for Irish SMEs who are finding their way into International exporting.

The implications of a shutdown or imposition of customs on the Republic Of Ireland-UK border is horrific for business and social interactions in both states.

Northern Ireland has become increasingly intertwined with the Republic and we are to them what the UK is to us in terms of a major market and stepping stone for business. In my company we regularly get multi-million projects from northern companies and there is now the guts of a UI trade wise with far more interaction between the two states than in the past.

We could be stumbling into a serious situation. There are implications for the USA-UK-EU nexus and the piggy in the middle positions of Ireland and the UK in that nexus. The USA has already slotted us in as part of a greater UK in their plans, if the UK is outside the EU then the US will reassess where we fit into their European relations and Ireland will be hung ho to steal business from the UK and vice versa in a post Brexit environment.

I think the threads should be merged under the title "Brexit; the implications for Ireland and beyond.

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 01:24 AM
As you see...... I have made a compromise on this . ie. Brexit; Is David Cameron doing Ireland a Favour?



Now this sounds like you are campaigning to have my thread closed or re-named



Well then. just let the two threads run ....... there are many other threads on similar subjects .... and this is the first time I've seen a member calling for another members pre-existing thread to be re-named and/or merged.

I have zero desire to see this thread closed. I just noted that the title had a limiting effect, and only 5 posts in 2015. Maybe that was because of the limiting effect of the title. This thread has had 24 posts in 24 hours.

For the record I believe PW would benefit from more newer threads, rather than fewer older threads. Life happens, things change etc.

pluralist
02-02-2016, 01:44 AM
For the record I believe PW would benefit from more newer threads, rather than fewer older threads.

Can't agree with this.

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 01:51 AM
Can't agree with this.

If there are duplicate threads, they can always be merged. If the threads don't exist in the first place................it can be a sign of stasis.

pluralist
02-02-2016, 02:00 AM
If there are duplicate threads, they can always be merged. If the threads don't exist in the first place................it can be a sign of stasis.

Are you on drugs?

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 02:02 AM
Are you on drugs?

No, explain why you disagree.

pluralist
02-02-2016, 02:11 AM
No, explain why you disagree.

I'll explain why I disagree with a thesis if you venture one, should I disagree with it.

So far, all you've done, from what I've seen of your posts, is post spam and insist that you should have special rights.

Typical "Generation Wuss" behaviour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772396/Over-sensitive-desperate-I-feel-sorry-Bret-Easton-Ellis-gives-damning-analysis-Millennials-brands-Generation-Wuss.html

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 02:15 AM
I'll explain why I disagree with a thesis if you venture one, should I disagree with it.

So far, all you've done, from what I've seen of your posts, is post spam and insist that you should have special rights.

Typical "Generation Wuss" behaviour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772396/Over-sensitive-desperate-I-feel-sorry-Bret-Easton-Ellis-gives-damning-analysis-Millennials-brands-Generation-Wuss.html

;)

random new yorker
02-02-2016, 02:44 AM
I'll explain why I disagree with a thesis if you venture one, should I disagree with it.

So far, all you've done, from what I've seen of your posts, is post spam and insist that you should have special rights.

Typical "Generation Wuss" behaviour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772396/Over-sensitive-desperate-I-feel-sorry-Bret-Easton-Ellis-gives-damning-analysis-Millennials-brands-Generation-Wuss.html

ih ih ih :) :)

reachin' for the ignore button

(now that was Weird! )

oh Count you Gen Wuss!! (he meant this as a compliment - gen born after 1989 - you a young fella?)

[ye should move to Canada :) :) - with all due respect to Canadians, i meant no offense]

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 04:22 AM
Brexit from EU would relegate Britain to second rate power: fund manager (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-02/brexit-from-eu-would-relegate-britain-to-second-rate/7132556&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCSoUMTYwNjE3MTY2NjM1ODAzMjcxNDYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNFt_k-4juGYKFQM-4ehdrsra0n7sw) ABC Online
Mr Gillingwater also said the Brexit scenario would see Britain isolated as a power and distant from the foreign policy achievements the EU has ...



Here's What Happens to the U.K. Economy in a `Brexit' Scenario (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCCoUMTYwNjE3MTY2NjM1ODAzMjcxNDYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNFrjiFpgbW1dL1NkR8-AudmzYOW1g) Bloomberg
According to analysis by economists Jamie Murray and Dan Hanson at Bloomberg Intelligence, a “Brexit” would deliver three punches to the 1.8 ..

Brexit index: The “Out” risk is real (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2016/02/01/brexit-index-the-out-risk-is-real/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAyoUMTYwNjE3MTY2NjM1ODAzMjcxNDYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNFxuuAOnqS4f4GBXftr5U0fMfjpew) Reuters Blogs (blog)
Britons are warming to the idea of Brexit. That message has been increasingly clear since the middle of last year, when polls started to indicate an ..

Spectabilis
02-02-2016, 04:28 AM
I'll explain why I disagree with a thesis if you venture one, should I disagree with it.

So far, all you've done, from what I've seen of your posts, is post spam and insist that you should have special rights.

Typical "Generation Wuss" behaviour.



Play the ball, please, and not the man. Basic site rule.

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 11:15 AM
Poland, (big surprise :)) says it can agree to 3 of the 4 British demands.

Brexit endgame begins as European Council president delivers draft agreement on David Cameron’s reform demands.

(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=f9db11db25&e=2af8d0786d)

TotalMayhem
02-02-2016, 11:54 AM
No, explain why you disagree.

Get used to it, for Pluralist anyone of a dofferent opinion is a mental case. Soon he'll have Nurse Ratchet coming for you. :D

TotalMayhem
02-02-2016, 01:33 PM
Poland, (big surprise :)) says it can agree to 3 of the 4 British demands.

You're confusing matters here. Tusk is the "Enemy No. 1" in Poland (http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-tusk-zu-polen-ich-bin-der-staatsfeind-nummer-eins-a-1072305.html).

Tusk is the President of the European Council and it was only a matter of time until the Kowtowing begins, which of course is the whole point of this exercise, Cameron is driving a bargain here and nothing else (It's the old Thatcher-spiel "I want my money back!")

Sam Lord
02-02-2016, 01:54 PM
Interesting to see Gerry Adams speaking out in favour of the 6 counties remaining in the EU. The Shinners sure have come a long way ... with further to go I guess ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397

Fraxinus
02-02-2016, 02:09 PM
Interesting to see Gerry Adams speaking out in favour of the 6 counties remaining in the EU. The Shinners sure have come a long way ... with further to go I guess ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397

I can see the rationale here...trying to peel the North away from Britain.

Shaadi
02-02-2016, 02:21 PM
Interesting to see Gerry Adams speaking out in favour of the 6 counties remaining in the EU. The Shinners sure have come a long way ... with further to go I guess ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397NI in the EU is a mighty wedge against the NI Union with the UK. A Brexit may be sufficient to tip the balance in favour of a UI as 91.2% of nationalist voters are against NI leaving the EU, a position largely shared by neutrals in NI and close to the opposite of how Unionists feel.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/article34176881.ece/binary/Nationalists.jpg

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/article34176882.ece/binary/Others.jpg

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/article34176880.ece/binary/Unionists.jpg


After a Brexit the UK may be much more keen to keep the territory it holds to the West or not and it could arm and wind up Loyaists to cause chaos and bloodshed if a UI vote was on the cards and not wanted by London.

random new yorker
02-02-2016, 02:46 PM
Interesting to see Gerry Adams speaking out in favour of the 6 counties remaining in the EU. The Shinners sure have come a long way ... with further to go I guess ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397

ah interesting
that would be the beginning of a united ireland?

random new yorker
02-02-2016, 02:57 PM
Poland, (big surprise :)) says it can agree to 3 of the 4 British demands.

Brexit endgame begins as European Council president delivers draft agreement on David Cameron’s reform demands.

(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=f9db11db25&e=2af8d0786d)

There is zero progress on this

Tusk (pronounced ~ 'Tisk') said on twitter: "no deal yet, next 24hr crucial" ... (something like that)

fluffybiscuits
02-02-2016, 03:21 PM
I'll explain why I disagree with a thesis if you venture one, should I disagree with it.

So far, all you've done, from what I've seen of your posts, is post spam and insist that you should have special rights.

Typical "Generation Wuss" behaviour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772396/Over-sensitive-desperate-I-feel-sorry-Bret-Easton-Ellis-gives-damning-analysis-Millennials-brands-Generation-Wuss.html

Not the first time you have rolled out that accusation, you could try addressing the points perhaps....

fluffybiscuits
02-02-2016, 03:22 PM
Interesting to see Gerry Adams speaking out in favour of the 6 counties remaining in the EU. The Shinners sure have come a long way ... with further to go I guess ...

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-says-north-should-be-able-stay-in-eu-in-a-brexit-1.2182397


An exit for the six counties would leave them open to tarrifs and trade issues . The same principal is being applied to Catalonia.

I'd have said they should go for EEA status, be an assoicate member but none of the bollicks that goes with being in the corporate EU club

Shaadi
02-02-2016, 03:34 PM
ah interesting
that would be the beginning of a united ireland?

There's more than that involved. A Brexit would be popcorn time, there's far too much at stake for the UK Govt to seriously risk a Brexit. Thing is they've created a British Nationalist electorate in England who really despise the EU who should never be given an in-out option EU membership referendum vote IF the Govt are not serious about a Brexit. I know the UK state is simply awesome at manipulating public opinion in its favour but the Establishment in the UK is itself split on EU membership so there's no easy way to stop a Brexit train in motion.


Former British prime minister says he is ‘very worried’ about EU vote.

Scotland will leave the United Kingdom if the U.K. votes to break away from the EU, Tony Blair warned Tuesday.

The former British prime minister told France’s Europe 1 radio he was “very worried” about the In/Out referendum on EU membership that David Cameron promised to hold by the end of 2017.

“There’s a little mentioned aspect, which is that, in my opinion, if the U.K. votes to leave Europe, Scotland will vote to leave the U.K.,” he said.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, at the weekend told the BBC that holding the referendum in June would be “disrespectful” as elections to the Scottish parliament take place in early May.

[Sturgeon also repeated her view that a U.K. vote to leave the EU but a Scottish vote to stay, would lead to “overwhelming demand” for another referendum on Scottish independence.

“The democratic outrage of being taken out of Europe against our will, I think would make that almost inevitable,” she said.


http://www.politico.eu/article/tony-blair-brexit-will-lead-to-scottish-independence-uk-scotland/

fluffybiscuits
02-02-2016, 03:39 PM
There's more than that involved. A Brexit would be popcorn time, there's far too much at stake for the UK Govt to seriously risk a Brexit. Thing is they've created a British Nationalist electorate in England who really despise the EU who should never be given an in-out option EU membership referendum vote IF the Govt are not serious about a Brexit. I know the UK state is simply awesome at manipulating public opinion in its favour but the Establishment in the UK is itself split on EU membership so there's no easy way to stop a Brexit train in motion.




http://www.politico.eu/article/tony-blair-brexit-will-lead-to-scottish-independence-uk-scotland/

Its split because the Tories hopped on to the UKIP bandwagon when they decided that they wanted to have scoop up the voters to get in for a second term. UKIP made noise of all sorts that the UK was going to be flooded by people from Eastern Europe if it expanded.

Shaadi
02-02-2016, 03:44 PM
Its split because the Tories hopped on to the UKIP bandwagon when they decided that they wanted to have scoop up the voters to get in for a second term. UKIP made noise of all sorts that the UK was going to be flooded by people from Eastern Europe if it expanded.

There has always been a large Eurosceptic wing in the Tories that is genuinely pro-exit. Riding that bull while claiming to have delivered a kiss me arse deal to keep the UK in the EU will make winning the referendum some feat of skill to pull off for Cameron.

Biting off more than you can chew springs to mind.



PS: Nice to see you around Fluffster.:)

riposte
02-02-2016, 03:49 PM
Its split because the Tories hopped on to the UKIP bandwagon when they decided that they wanted to have scoop up the voters to get in for a second term. UKIP made noise of all sorts that the UK was going to be flooded by people from Eastern Europe if it expanded.


Good to see you posting Fluffy:D

fluffybiscuits
02-02-2016, 03:59 PM
There has always been a large Eurosceptic wing in the Tories that is genuinely pro-exit. Riding that bull while claiming to have delivered a kiss me arse deal to keep the UK in the EU will make winning the referendum some feat of skill to pull off for Cameron.

Biting off more than you can chew springs to mind.



PS: Nice to see you around Fluffster.:)

They must have a good marketing team they know how to get the vote ;)

Good to be back! :)

Count Bobulescu
02-02-2016, 04:20 PM
You're confusing matters here. Tusk is the "Enemy No. 1" in Poland (http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-tusk-zu-polen-ich-bin-der-staatsfeind-nummer-eins-a-1072305.html).

Tusk is the President of the European Council and it was only a matter of time until the Kowtowing begins, which of course is the whole point of this exercise, Cameron is driving a bargain here and nothing else (It's the old Thatcher-spiel "I want my money back!")No, I'm not confusing matters, you are. It's got nothing to do with Tusk at all. I understand perfectly, I'm well capable of walking and chewing gum. You didn't read, or if you did, you didn't understand.
From my link.


“The U.K.’s first three demands are acceptable,” Konrad Szymański, Poland’s Europe minister, told POLITICO. “The fourth one is the problem. We can’t accept discrimination but then how does Cameron offer something for people who are against migration? We understand British concerns. They have the right to shape their labor market. The issue is discrimination.”

C. Flower
02-02-2016, 05:42 PM
;)

Glad to see you two getting on.... :)

random new yorker
02-02-2016, 06:29 PM
.... I know the UK state is simply awesome at manipulating public opinion in its favour but the Establishment in the UK is itself split on EU membership so there's no easy way to stop a Brexit train in motion.

http://www.politico.eu/article/tony-blair-brexit-will-lead-to-scottish-independence-uk-scotland/

yes keep in mind those guys 'invented' the 'free' press which they manipulate as they wish ..

true masters of spin ... i never believe absolutely anything that i read in the british press unless corroborated by other press hopefully in different language

(love them brits but boy they are the two-faced masters of the universe --- better than yous)

random new yorker
02-02-2016, 06:29 PM
PS: Nice to see you around Fluffster.:)

:) welcome back? :)

fluffybiscuits
03-02-2016, 09:16 AM
:) welcome back? :)

Cheers :)

Count Bobulescu
03-02-2016, 03:56 PM
Europe's Biggest Exchange Warns `Brexit' May Spur London Exodus

(https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/europes-biggest-exchange-warns-brexit-may-spur-london-exodus/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCSoTNTI3OTczMzc5MjI0NTM0Njc4OTIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNFR1YU1NXab92WWsiqbFWpO29GFFw)Thwarting the European hegemon as sterling wilts amid Brexit fears (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/europes-biggest-exchange-warns-brexit-may-spur-london-exodus/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCSoTNTI3OTczMzc5MjI0NTM0Njc4OTIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNFR1YU1NXab92WWsiqbFWpO29GFFw)


'GBPUSD could move down to 1.35 by end of April on Brexit referendum risks' - Simon Smith, FxPro (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/conversations-with-forex-experts/2016/02/02/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAyoTNTI3OTczMzc5MjI0NTM0Njc4OTIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNGVGPHq3MF0qZyvr_wPpgZY3XTFBA) FXStreet

1.46 today, was 1.66 approx 6 months ago.

TotalMayhem
03-02-2016, 04:13 PM
Eight of the Top Ten UK export markets are EU members. Imagine their export economy (currently ranked #10 in the world) getting hammered with the EU's Common Customs Tariff...

random new yorker
03-02-2016, 08:18 PM
Eight of the Top Ten UK export markets are EU members. Imagine their export economy (currently ranked #10 in the world) getting hammered with the EU's Common Customs Tariff...

Yes... i want to see that!

Shaadi
03-02-2016, 10:11 PM
Eight of the Top Ten UK export markets are EU members. Imagine their export economy (currently ranked #10 in the world) getting hammered with the EU's Common Customs Tariff...That's a two-way street, as we saw with the Russian embargo, politics is politics but business rules.

It would have to be a very bitter divorce for a suitable accommodation not to have been reached beforehand.

random new yorker
03-02-2016, 11:00 PM
That's a two-way street, as we saw with the Russian embargo, politics is politics but business rules.

It would have to be a very bitter divorce for a suitable accommodation not to have been reached beforehand.

i was reading today that Brussels is quite willing to bend the rules (the same it refused to bend as re Greece, Ireland and Portugal) to 'accommodate' the UK...

Count Bobulescu
04-02-2016, 06:47 AM
Bank of England would try to limit impact of a Brexit on UK economy (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/03/bank-of-england-would-try-to-limit-impact-of-a-brexit-on-uk-economy&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoUMTY5NDM3NjExMTE0MzUxMzQ4NDkyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNEIufSadZbSwzPLRCuKgG3nACQNNA) The Guardian

London Lawyers Oppose Brexit Even With Reward of Added Revenue (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/london-lawyers-oppose-brexit-even-with-reward-of-added-revenue&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAyoUMTY5NDM3NjExMTE0MzUxMzQ4NDkyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNFIvpetpPnIY5J0PeU9GgLGPYu3vg) Bloomberg

Brexit Northern Ireland impact 'would be small', MPs told (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35480567&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCCoUMTY5NDM3NjExMTE0MzUxMzQ4NDkyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNEwmmDa1UjSZ76e680f7K79LjUalQ) BBC News


Expensive border security operation would remain after Brexit, says Ian Paisley (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/expensive-border-security-operation-would-remain-after-brexit-says-ian-paisley-34420739.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCSoUMTY5NDM3NjExMTE0MzUxMzQ4NDkyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNEImWXseOLhQfRwyrYazSyXjI1JwQ) Belfast Telegraph

Count Bobulescu
04-02-2016, 06:49 AM
BREXIT — THE BATTLE ON THE HOME FRONT: David Cameron’s strategy is to win over press, the Tory frontbench and, finally, the British public. http://politi.co/1X4AiGY

(http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=45c7601653&e=2af8d0786d)

BREXIT — FIVE CABINET MINISTERS SET TO CAMPAIGN AGAINST EU, reports the Times (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=3ec47df60c&e=2af8d0786d), as prominent Brexit campaigners Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings are ousted from the board of the Vote Leave campaign group they run (they will remain in their CEO and campaign director posts). http://bit.ly/1R2NonA

(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=a9932c6300&e=2af8d0786d)

BREXIT — THE IRISH PROBLEM: There’s virtually no chance of this happening, but check out the reactions from political forces in Ireland such as Sinn Féin. MEP Martina Anderson emailed journalists overnight: “Ireland’s place is Europe … The north should have its own referendum, calculated and counted separately and the outcome respected. The result of an English referendum should not be imposed on the people of the North of Ireland.”


BREXIT — CAMERON DID WELL, AND EUROPE SAYS ‘WE LOVE YOU’: Economist, author and former Commission adviser Philippe Legrain writes that he’s surprised Cameron did so well in the negotiation, and provides a long list of reasons as to why Britons should back the deal: http://bit.ly/1NQhrbt (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=6dc8bc251b&e=2af8d0786d).

POLITICO’s Pierre Briançon says that having stretched to help Britain (“Europe is trying to show the U.K how much it wants to keep it in the Union”), “Europeans in turn are now asking the Brits to solve their Europe problem.” http://politi.co/1PzSg2y (http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=c2f0fa70d2&e=2af8d0786d); and Tim King writes that Cameron is his own worst enemy: http://politi.co/1nOpK2T

(http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=a993647967&e=2af8d0786d)

BREXIT — IS THERE ANYTHING TO ALLOW A EUROSKEPTIC TO CAMPAIGN FOR ‘IN’? http://bit.ly/1NR7cDQ (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=6c7774210d&e=2af8d0786d)

Count Bobulescu
05-02-2016, 06:55 PM
These 5 Facts Explain the Debate Over Brexit (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://time.com/4207785/these-5-facts-explain-the-debate-over-brexit/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoUMTAxMjY3Njk2ODQyOTIyMzM2MTYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNE38Sjz-rC8LOnYA8S_bRv8-xYXhQ) TIME

Excellent: Goldman Sachs Says Brexit Could Cause 20% Sterling Slump (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/02/04/excellent-goldman-sachs-says-brexit-could-cause-20-sterling-slump/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoUMTAxMjY3Njk2ODQyOTIyMzM2MTYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNFDG2RT0uIiLZL12_E1SYzCnsuVCA) Forbes

David Cameron's Brexit comments infuriate Tory activists who now threaten to abandon support for ... (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12141419/David-Camerons-Brexit-comments-infuriate-Tory-activists-who-now-threaten-to-abandon-support-for-candidates.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAioUMTAxMjY3Njk2ODQyOTIyMzM2MTYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNE1lZx2D1bWne-3oozBavbU4KTyQw) Telegraph.co.uk

Brexit' on My Mind? Not if You're an EU Economic Forecaster (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/-brexit-on-my-mind-not-if-you-re-an-eu-economic-forecaster&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBCoUMTAxMjY3Njk2ODQyOTIyMzM2MTYyGjM3ZGYxNjI 5NzU3YTg0MjI6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNFWDWuEMEqZzCJrSt6eAkOIW6ZbAQ) Bloomberg

BREXIT LATEST…

NEW POLL GIVES ‘OUT’ CAMPAIGN ITS BIGGEST LEAD YET: The YouGov survey found that 45 percent of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36 percent who want to remain. 19 percent are undecided or won’t vote. http://thetim.es/1mhlIhU

(http://politico.us8.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=0c53e9fa51&e=2af8d0786d)CAMERON ‘FINALLY’ ACCEPTS EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT INVITE: He will not actually address all MEPs, but Cameronwill speak to party group leaders at the European Parliament on February 16, two days before EU leaders will discuss his proposals for reformed U.K. membership of the EU at a summit. http://politi.co/1QJJIoD

(http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=ffa658299c&e=2af8d0786d)FIRST ‘SHERPA’ MEETING TODAY IN BRUSSELS TO PUSH DEAL FORWARD: It’s not clear why a special process is needed to finalize a deal on the U.K. negotiation. Do national capitals and the Commission not trust the regular ambassadors? It can’t be a sop to MEPs otherwise excluded from the negotiations — because they’re not invited either. Secretary General Klaus Welle, for example, rather than MEPs will represent the Parliament.

MUST READ ARTICLE: John Rentoul in the Independent writes “[Boris] Johnson’s game is as transparent as the Westminster bubble: he is posing for the cameras as the more Eurosceptic candidate for the Conservative succession (when compared with George Osborne), but he doesn’t want to lead the Leave campaign because he thinks it is going to lose. The same goes for Theresa May, the Home Secretary, who issued a statement on Tuesday saying the proposals were the ‘basis for a deal’. If you want to understand the significance of this week’s deal, listen to the thundering hooves of the deserting big beasts rather than to the shrill wailing of the anti-EU press.” http://ind.pn/1PE58o4 (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=e77558e81a&e=2af8d0786d)

pluralist
05-02-2016, 06:59 PM
^


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwy2MPT5RE

barrym
06-02-2016, 07:05 AM
Cass, is this to be the "real" brexit thread? if so, can you suspend a couple of the posters and then we can get on with the discussion.

Ephilant
06-02-2016, 11:05 AM
Martin Schultz in the EP:


This is despite the fact – and I admit this quite frankly – that the British often test our patience and good will with their continuous demands. They are demanding. They push hard. They insist. They just don’t let go. Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: ‘Don’t stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave.

Obviously not happy with Cameron demanding "reform"...

And then, using the "Brexit" talks as his launching pad, "That" guy pops up again with his views on where the EU is going wrong and what needs doing to set it right, none other than Y. Varoufakis (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/05/eu-no-longer-serves-people-europe-diem25?CMP=share_btn_tw)

I wonder of Schultz would be agreeable to these reforms?

random new yorker
06-02-2016, 02:59 PM
Martin Schultz in the EP:



Obviously not happy with Cameron demanding "reform"...

And then, using the "Brexit" talks as his launching pad, "That" guy pops up again with his views on where the EU is going wrong and what needs doing to set it right, none other than Y. Varoufakis (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/05/eu-no-longer-serves-people-europe-diem25?CMP=share_btn_tw)

I wonder of Schultz would be agreeable to these reforms?

Yanis says he believes his DiEM25 is utopic as do all other people involved ... but that we must keep thinking and advancing proposals for reform.. (tis a good piece, i think)

"Is this utopian? Of course it is. But no more so than the notion that the current EU can survive its anti-democratic hubris, and the gross incompetence fuelled by its unaccountability. Or the idea that democracy can be revived in the bosom of a nation-state asphyxiating within transnational “single” markets and opaque free trade agreements."

Count Bobulescu
06-02-2016, 03:23 PM
^


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwy2MPT5RE

I have a thick skin and can josh with the best, and care little about what you think, but I believe you're trying to derail the thread, I'll let it pass this time. Do it again and I'll report your posts, and make the mods sing for their supper.

Count Bobulescu
06-02-2016, 03:26 PM
Cass, is this to be the "real" brexit thread? if so, can you suspend a couple of the posters and then we can get on with the discussion.

I think this thread which has a broader remit, can co-exist happily with the Irish focused one, even if Riposte - a sensitive soul- fears otherwise.

random new yorker
06-02-2016, 04:01 PM
I think this thread which has a broader remit, can co-exist happily with the Irish focused one, even if Riposte - a sensitive soul- fears otherwise.

ye think they are still upset bout that?

aye

riposte
06-02-2016, 06:20 PM
I think this thread which has a broader remit, can co-exist happily with the Irish focused one, even if Riposte - a sensitive soul- fears otherwise.

The more threads the merrier.......... that's what I say!

TotalMayhem
06-02-2016, 06:48 PM
That is very sensitive of you to say... :D

DCon
07-02-2016, 06:55 AM
A backup plan?




The BBC's Deputy Political Editor, James Landale, says the idea of a sovereignty law so that the House of Commons asserts the supremacy of UK law over European law is "clearly being discussed behind the scenes."

It's an agenda being pushed by the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, and the Prime Minister is examining whether Germany's Constitutional Court model could in any way be applied to the UK.




http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03hfhgs

random new yorker
07-02-2016, 02:45 PM
A backup plan?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03hfhgs


they got their marching orders from Wash DC

so yes

I think they'd better be thinkin' of a face saving alternative

Count Bobulescu
07-02-2016, 04:10 PM
I'm not a devotee of the Express, but these caught my eye.

Jeremy Corbyn backtracks on Euroscepticism with pledge to SUPPORT 'In' camp in EU vote (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/641780/Jeremy-Corbyn-backtracks-Euroscepticism-pledge-support-In-camp-Brexit&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBSoTNTk2MDEwMTg5OTM4ODg5ODkxNjIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHYHIqB4XOPuAuXuK2m_7ANHRdjzg) Express.co.uk

ONE VOICE FOR BREXIT: EU out groups merge into super group - let the battle begin (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/641763/BREXIT-EU-out-groups-merge-super-group-battle-begin-cameron-farage-crossparty&ct=ga&cd=CAEYByoTNTk2MDEwMTg5OTM4ODg5ODkxNjIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNGy7g9WVh7oad6bXltwL4vM45QV0Q) Express.co.uk

Saturday Papers: UK businesses unprepared for Brexit (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://citywire.co.uk/money/saturday-papers-uk-businesses-unprepared-for-brexit/a878496&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBioTNTk2MDEwMTg5OTM4ODg5ODkxNjIaMzdkZjE2Mjk 3NTdhODQyMjpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNGJv7GBLJqovmCqAfVGFj9OkUJsSQ) Citywire.co.uk

DCon
13-02-2016, 10:26 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbIT92RXEAYsA4T.jpg

Count Bobulescu
13-02-2016, 10:35 PM
If I'm reading that right with similar per capita PPP gdp Netherlands contributes about 16 times as much as Ireland.

DCon
15-02-2016, 04:04 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbRRtGQWIAAZSBp.png

Shaadi
15-02-2016, 05:12 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbRRtGQWIAAZSBp.png

It'll be hilarious if the Brits are too chicken to put their money where their mouth is after all their years and years of Euroscepticism.

barrym
17-02-2016, 01:07 PM
It'll be hilarious if the Brits are too chicken to put their money where their mouth is after all their years and years of Euroscepticism.


Euroscepticism is a political event, mostly. Brexit is racial/anti immigrant/too many blacks and muslims. They'll be persuaded that eliminating all that can be achieved without affecting their pockets.

morticia
17-02-2016, 08:24 PM
Lots of financial services companies considering a move to Dublin in the event of a Brexit, apparently.
Unfortunately, we appear to have a school capacity and housing crisis; there may be trouble ahead....

DCon
19-02-2016, 08:31 PM
White Smoke in Brussels with reports that Cameron has gotten a deal



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm3mKGUAAAdWn2.jpg

random new yorker
19-02-2016, 10:04 PM
White Smoke in Brussels with reports that Cameron has gotten a deal



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm3mKGUAAAdWn2.jpg

wow

how did you get your hands on this?

From NPR: Cameron Reaches New Deal On Britain's Status In The EU (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/02/19/467353147/britain-and-the-eu-what-does-david-cameron-want)


Britain will have a special exemption in the future from further political integration aiming for "ever closer union," a merging that has long been a goal of the EU. The agreement also promises fair treatment in future treaty amendments on financial matters between EU countries that use the Euro as their currency and those, such as Britain, that don't.

The new deal allows Britain to "deny in-work benefits to newly arrived workers from other EU states for their first four years in the country."

Individuals filing benefits claims for kids living in other EU countries will be impacted by a new system that allows EU governments to make the payments proportional to the other state's living costs and benefits. New claimants will be immediately impacted by the new system, and all other claimants will be impacted by 2020.


(Britain is special, what else is new)

DCon
19-02-2016, 10:19 PM
wow

how did you get your hands on this?

I have this from NPR: Cameron Reaches New Deal On Britain's Status In The EU (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/02/19/467353147/britain-and-the-eu-what-does-david-cameron-want)

Peter Spiegel (FT Journalist) tweeted it


https://mobile.twitter.com/SpiegelPeter/status/700793775380164608

And more


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm5yKBW4AAXfDt.jpg


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbm42PSW0AE2bLQ.jpg

Spectabilis
20-02-2016, 02:00 AM
The exemption from 'ever-closer Union' is most striking. There is a good, simple summary by Jennifer Rankin in the Guardian of what else was agreed/denied.



http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/19/camerons-eu-deal-what-he-wanagreed and what was deniedted-and-what-he-got

barrym
20-02-2016, 06:23 AM
The exemption from 'ever-closer Union' is most striking.

?? That would seem to imply that the UK was ever "for" this idea. Since Thatcher they have not.

I attended my first EU meeting on 4 January 1973, and for many years thereafter, I never got the impression the UK took the EU seriously. For example, they didn't even try to get any Director General posts in Brussles until the late 70s. Their only early DG was a former UN official who had worked for the EU as a specialist before '73.

The wording of the Brexit agreement is the usual fudge, on the one hand, on the other hand....

DCon
20-02-2016, 11:33 AM
Sky News



David Cameron has announced the #referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union will be held on Thursday 23 June

random new yorker
20-02-2016, 03:38 PM
?? That would seem to imply that the UK was ever "for" this idea. Since Thatcher they have not.

I attended my first EU meeting on 4 January 1973, and for many years thereafter, I never got the impression the UK took the EU seriously. For example, they didn't even try to get any Director General posts in Brussles until the late 70s. Their only early DG was a former UN official who had worked for the EU as a specialist before '73.

The wording of the Brexit agreement is the usual fudge, on the one hand, on the other hand....

Here's my take.

The UK is Special. It has always been. Or at least they think they are and in fact i believe their entire culture is built on that assumption.

Cameron gets to go home an tell the populace that 'Hey as y'all know we are Special and the EU just signed a document making it official'

It feeds right into their Special=Superior feelings and it plays just right

now keeping in mind that they rule under a monarchic system that sits comfortably on the shoulders of a happy and thoroughly brainwashed populace, having the possibility to avail of the main stream media that invented Propaganda then it is not difficult to predict they will now tell their Stragglers to Cop On cos they got from the EU just what they wanted and thus are in a better position to continue leveraging off the financial system and advance their geopolitical power.

Having said that.

This is More Of The Same. Nothing changed in that regard. You can see that from the EU dealings w Greece, Portugal, Italy and now the UK. The pieces on that political puzzle are exactly, precisely in the same place as they were in 2010.

My hat is off to Cameron: he is a Brilliant Politician!

(or my hat will be off when he nails the Yes to EU in that UK referendum - which I think will happen).

hmmm ... wait.. i don't wear a hat!

Shaadi
20-02-2016, 04:02 PM
Here's my take.

The UK is Special. It has always been. Or at least they think they are and in fact i believe their entire culture is built on that assumption.

Cameron gets to go home an tell the populace that 'Hey as y'all know we are Special and the EU just signed a document making it official'

It feeds right into their Special=Superior feelings and it plays just right

now keeping in mind that they rule under a monarchic system that sits comfortably on the shoulders of a happy and thoroughly brainwashed populace, having the possibility to avail of the main stream media that invented Propaganda then it is not difficult to predict they will now tell their Stragglers to Cop On cos they got from the EU just what they wanted and thus are in a better position to continue leveraging off the financial system and advance their geopolitical power.

Having said that.

This is More Of The Same. Nothing changed in that regard. You can see that from the EU dealings w Greece, Portugal, Italy and now the UK. The pieces on that political puzzle are exactly, precisely in the same place as they were in 2010.

My hat is off to Cameron: he is a Brilliant Politician!

(or my hat will be off when he nails the Yes to EU in that UK referendum - which I think will happen).

hmmm ... wait.. i don't wear a hat!I think Cameron is actually a clown. His own party and media are split on Yes/No and will rip themselves apart over the referendum.

A Yes result will leave a very very bitter taste of humiliation for British Nationalism. A Nationalism that is the be all and end all of British Culture. The very glue that holds a large population in an iron grip re loyalty to the UK class system.

Breaking British people's Pride in their ability to go it alone will have untold consequences for UK politics.

In Ireland we've seen faith in every pillar of Irish Society collapse to unprecedented levels for any country.

60-70 million people in the UK with the scales lifted from their eyes in one fell swoop is going to produce a developing roller coaster ride for British politics.

random new yorker
20-02-2016, 04:47 PM
I think Cameron is actually a clown. His own party and media are split on Yes/No and will rip themselves apart over the referendum.

A Yes result will leave a very very bitter taste of humiliation for British Nationalism. A Nationalism that is the be all and end all of British Culture. The very glue that holds a large population in an iron grip re loyalty to the UK class system.

Breaking British people's Pride in their ability to go it alone will have untold consequences for UK politics.

i completely agree w you here that British Nationalism is the glue that tethers loyalty to the UK class system

but at its core is this notion of 'being special=being superior' which Cameron managed to swindle out of the EU powers

I think he will be able to serve the populace their own fave tea of 'specialdom' in a way telling them they are in charge of their own future and thus can go it alone when they want/if needed (but right now they are better feeding off the EU system as they have done in the past feeding off their former colonies, no?)... I mean he can use the same Propagandizing media machine and spoon feed this 'glorious old idea' back to the populace and that is all they need to hear

(he will have to shut some dissenting loud mouths and if i know anything about their system my best guess is he will 'buy' them w something, some special title, that kind of stuff)

and boy! british folk are the easiest to manipulate w stories (no idea why that is) if ye judge by how fast snake oil artists manage to make a living ...there is a degree of 'following yer own tribal leader' also .. quite interesting from my point of view



In Ireland we've seen faith in every pillar of Irish Society collapse to unprecedented levels for any country.

60-70 million people in the UK with the scales lifted from their eyes in one fell swoop is going to produce a developing roller coaster ride for British politics.

you see it from the 'English' perspective but there are a good number of British people who are not English and who may even love the queen but not so blindly? (i mean the Queen doesnt quite look like their own grandma...)

i stated what i think will happen not what I would like to see happen :)

morticia
20-02-2016, 07:14 PM
Yiz are assuming the result will be a Yes because they will fear the chaos ensuing from a no.

I doubt this will be the case, outside of the business interests/CBE, who will be praying for a yes and [email protected]!ng themselves. These guys are the rational ones, but I suspect they may not win the day.

The UK is a much bigger economy than Ireland, change happens much more slowly, even in a crisis. This gives an illusion of stability and means that the causes of economic upheaval can remain more disconnected from their effects in the minds of the populace than in Ireland, where things go wrong faster. The FPTP system means a disconnection from politics and (unlike here) people seem to think discussing voting intentions is rude. Result; massive levels of disengagement.

Some of my relatives by marriage give a good example; re the PR referendum, it was "don't understand it, shan't vote for it, so there".

This will be a case of "bl00dy EU, flooding us with scrounging foreigners who take all our jobs, impose foreign rules on us and suck up tax payers' money; we'd be better off without them".

Nasty stuff will happen to the economy as a result, but Joe Soap will probably blame that on Eurosabotage or similar.

This will be a battle of the classes and ages; a mobile and internationally connected middle class Yes (big business, academia) versus a disenfranchised and propagandised anti-immigrant working class, the less well travelled middle and a landowning hereditary aristocracy that thinks it's innately superior, so bye, bye Europe No.

I suspect the older people may be much more strongly no voting, also those left in the rural shires.

Interestingly, given the tendency for DEFRA to pay farmers their EU subsidies very late and the tendency for many farmers there to resent the bureaucracy, CAP recipients are ironically not a clear cut yes...

random new yorker
20-02-2016, 08:18 PM
you saying yiz think it could be a No?

when is this referendum?

riposte
21-02-2016, 05:01 PM
Well....... it's game on .........with Boris!

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

DCon
21-02-2016, 05:11 PM
GBPUSD 1.42XX after 1.4499 on Friday

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbweMEKUcAEt-SX.jpg

pluralist
21-02-2016, 05:57 PM
Jerry Hayes.


Boris is a copper bottomed, double dealing hypocritical little ****. The press will destroy him

21 Feb 2016 at 18:35

http://jerryhayes.co.uk/posts/2016/02/21/boris-is-a-copper-bottomed-double-dealing-hypocritical-little-****-the-press-will-destroy-him

morticia
21-02-2016, 06:21 PM
The press have so far failed to destroy Bozzer. Despite attempts, his multiple marriages and various affairs, Bullingdon club history and what have you.

It will be interesting to see what they will try next, however [emoji12][emoji6]

pluralist
21-02-2016, 07:01 PM
The press have so far failed to destroy Bozzer. Despite attempts, his multiple marriages and various affairs, Bullingdon club history and what have you.

It's true, hard to destroy a politician who is immune to embarassment.

DCon
21-02-2016, 08:23 PM
Boris




I am a European. I lived many years in Brussels. I rather love the old place. And so I resent the way we continually confuse Europe – the home of the greatest and richest culture in the world, to which Britain is and will be an eternal contributor – with the political project of the European Union. It is, therefore, vital to stress that there is nothing necessarily anti-European or xenophobic in wanting to vote Leave on June 23.


Democracy matters; and I find it deeply worrying that the Greeks are effectively being told what to do with their budgets and public spending, in spite of huge suffering among the population. And now the EU wants to go further. There is a document floating around Brussels called “The Five Presidents Report”, in which the leaders of the various EU institutions map out ways to save the euro. It all involves more integration: a social union, a political union, a budgetary union. At a time when Brussels should be devolving power, it is hauling more and more towards the centre, and there is no way that Britain can be unaffected.

There is only one way to get the change we need, and that is to vote to go, because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No. The fundamental problem remains: that they have an ideal that we do not share. They want to create a truly federal union, e pluribus unum, when most British people do not.

It is time to seek a new relationship, in which we manage to extricate ourselves from most of the supranational elements. We will hear a lot in the coming weeks about the risks of this option; the risk to the economy, the risk to the City of London, and so on; and though those risks cannot be entirely dismissed, I think they are likely to be exaggerated. We have heard this kind of thing before, about the decision to opt out of the euro, and the very opposite turned out to be the case.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12167643/There-is-only-one-way-to-get-the-change-we-want-vote-to-leave-the-EU.html

random new yorker
21-02-2016, 08:32 PM
Boris




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12167643/There-is-only-one-way-to-get-the-change-we-want-vote-to-leave-the-EU.html

it may very well be what the Union needs to Reform itself.. (I agree w him by the way)

morticia
22-02-2016, 06:59 PM
it may very well be what the Union needs to Reform itself.. (I agree w him by the way)

Boris, despite the "lovable eejit" facade, supposedly has a very high IQ and can certainly make a good argument.

However, on the balance of things, many of the policies that he rails against having to impose are decent attempts to give workers rights, protect the environment and promote peace, justice and trade.

The problem with his argument is not that he is incorrect. It is in what he does not tell us.

He's correct on a number of points, including what has happened on the Southern periphery, the mistakes of the Euro project etc.

But what he isn't telling the reader is that, should Britain vote No, many of those rules n regs he is so allergic to will have to be imposed on the UK anyway, and neither he nor anyone else will be able to have a say re framing them. It will be a case of "do you want to trade with us or not"?

Oh, and he's really not mentioning much on immigration. The difficult truth is that the UK really doesn't want to pull its weight on that one. However given issues with the education system, it may underperform without the input of its skilled foreign workers.

They're currently trying to deport any non EU workers who have been there for 5 years and aren't earning more than £35k.

Seems like naked class/wealth based discrimination to me

Shocked, but not surprised. It will crucify the NHS

http://gu.com/p/4a3d6/sbl

DCon
22-02-2016, 09:51 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb2nHDXWIAE5O97.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/suttonnick/status/701900857361702913

TotalMayhem
22-02-2016, 11:06 PM
Meanwhile investors are trashing the Sterling (http://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2016/02/22/sterling-hits-7-year-us-low-over-brexit-but-is-a-currency-run-looming/#5060f66b5410)...

C. Flower
23-02-2016, 04:15 PM
Some disoriented Lefts, including George Galloway, have drifted towards the Brexit campaign.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/23/pers-f23.html

Brexit is not about any kind of progressive national sovereignty. It is about the notion that Imperial Britain can be great again and tread the rest of the world under foot.

pluralist
23-02-2016, 04:36 PM
Some disoriented Lefts, including George Galloway, have drifted towards the Brexit campaign.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/23/pers-f23.html

Brexit is not about any kind of progressive national sovereignty. It is about the notion that Imperial Britain can be great again and tread the rest of the world under foot.

Hilariously, the Voice of Little England, the Daily Mail has been trashing Prince William in the last few days after his recent Europe-friendly comments.

Unpardonable! Bloody royals! They're bloody Germans anyway! Grrr!

TotalMayhem
23-02-2016, 05:46 PM
Looks like it's gonna be "Frankfurt's way" for London Stock Exchange (LSE).

BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35639157)

morticia
23-02-2016, 05:57 PM
Brexit is not about any kind of progressive national sovereignty. It is about the notion that Imperial Britain can be great again and tread the rest of the world under foot.

Got it in one [emoji27] unfortunately [emoji16]

random new yorker
26-02-2016, 02:14 AM
Some disoriented Lefts, including George Galloway, have drifted towards the Brexit campaign.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/23/pers-f23.html

should i assume from this that you are against Brexit?



Brexit is not about any kind of progressive national sovereignty. It is about the notion that Imperial Britain can be great again and tread the rest of the world under foot.

now there a sentence i agree with 100%

TotalMayhem
03-03-2016, 09:59 AM
The French government threatens Britain with opening the tunnel for refugees and shutting down access to the French market, should they decide to leave the EU... they will also roll out “a red carpet” for bankers fleeing London. :D

FT (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2c669fd4-e054-11e5-9217-6ae3733a2cd1.html#axzz41ptjtkXF)

barrym
03-03-2016, 12:37 PM
The French government threatens Britain with opening the tunnel for refugees and shutting down access to the French market, should they decide to leave the EU... they will also roll out “a red carpet” for bankers fleeing London. :D

FT (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2c669fd4-e054-11e5-9217-6ae3733a2cd1.html#axzz41ptjtkXF)

Designed to keep them in....

In fact, if they did leave the French would have to stop the present deal, which was done to speed up the Eurostar in Gare du Nord, with a side issue on the tunnel in Calais. If the brits leave then a new arrangement would have to be set up.

The French are probably pee'd off that the present arrangement sort of copper fastens the refugees at Calais problem.

TotalMayhem
03-03-2016, 01:08 PM
The French are mightily pee'd off that the present arrangement sort of copper fastens the refugees at Calais problem.

Had to correct this for you. ;)

riposte
03-03-2016, 02:11 PM
Brexit is not about any kind of progressive national sovereignty. It is about the notion that Imperial Britain can be great again and tread the rest of the world under foot.

lol !!

pluralist
06-03-2016, 01:40 AM
lol !!

It's interesting. Quite a lot of the serious lefties in the UK are pro-Brexit.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CctHzdDW4AAtJmY.jpg:large

The current leader of the UK Labour party (who most lefties on this internet forum place their hope and trust in, for reasons I still don't understand) used to be a Eurosceptic, before he decided to become pro-EU.

pluralist
18-03-2016, 01:05 AM
The Irish Times pushing the 'Irish Brexiters are bad peepuls' narrative.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/on-crunch-brexit-vote-irish-could-help-swing-close-campaign-1.2577188

The Irish Times are pretty much always wrong. I would be willing to stake a bet that the majority of British Irish will vote for Brexit.

barrym
18-03-2016, 05:54 AM
Where does the <passport free travel> will continue, come from? I see comment that border posts will be needed to prevent EU people entering UK, i.e.Polish plumbers and the like.

We should just upstage the whole affair by joining Schengen now.

Hapax
18-03-2016, 10:16 PM
The In/Out split among the Tories really hotting up this evening, with IDS riding off into the sunset . . . so he can be more active in the civil war, no doubt.


Regardless of who is right or wrong in this dispute, there is no denying that the Government's handling of disability benefit changes has been a mess. The proposals to save money from Personal Independence Payments lasted less than a week. They were rolled out in Wednesday's Budget. On Thursday, Nicky Morgan told a television audience that they were just 'a suggestion'. The next day, an aide close to Mr Duncan Smith replied that she did not seem to understand the policy. Yesterday evening, No 10 indicated that the PIP reforms were being kicked into the long grass. Given how long Mr Duncan Smith has worked on them, it is understandable that he might be angry.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12198441/Iain-Duncan-Smiths-resignation-should-serve-as-a-wake-up-call-for-the-Tories.html

Hapax
19-03-2016, 04:25 PM
David McWilliams on the implications of Brexit for Ireland:


If Brexit happens, it won't make a huge difference. Once Britain's economy is doing okay, we will too. Indeed, financial services might expand in Dublin and so too might foreign investment flows.

One caveat:


The short-term loss of some banking business would bring down house prices a bit in London and, in contrast, this could push up prices in Dublin.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/02/22/we-will-do-just-fine-if-theres-a-brexit

morticia
20-03-2016, 09:47 PM
David McWilliams on the implications of Brexit for Ireland:



One caveat:



http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/02/22/we-will-do-just-fine-if-theres-a-brexit

He is absolutely correct. A lot of London's financial firms will be looking at moving staff and various EU facing function to Dublin. We already have a housing crisis and a burgeoning school places crisis (secondary school places are particularly difficult for new arrivals, apparently); Brexit is likely to turn a car crash situation into a multi-plane midair collision above a large population centre type analogy when it comes to housing and schools places shortages. Neither housing nor school provision are the sort of areas where "market fawces" can be got to work quickly in terms of remedying shortfall. One employee of a large finance firm I saw quoted reckons that most firms will want a presence in Dublin if there's a Brexit.

More builders urgently required...

morticia
20-03-2016, 09:47 PM
David McWilliams on the implications of Brexit for Ireland:



One caveat:



http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2016/02/22/we-will-do-just-fine-if-theres-a-brexit

He is absolutely correct. A lot of London's financial firms will be looking at moving staff and various EU facing function to Dublin. We already have a housing crisis and a burgeoning school places crisis (secondary school places are particularly difficult for new arrivals, apparently); Brexit is likely to turn a car crash situation into a multi-plane midair collision above a large population centre type analogy when it comes to housing and schools places shortages. Neither housing nor school provision are the sort of areas where "market fawces" can be got to work quickly in terms of remedying shortfall. One employee of a large finance firm I saw quoted reckons that most firms will want a presence in Dublin if there's a Brexit.

More builders urgently required...

riposte
20-03-2016, 11:30 PM
He is absolutely correct. A lot of London's financial firms will be looking at moving staff and various EU facing function to Dublin. We already have a housing crisis and a burgeoning school places crisis (secondary school places are particularly difficult for new arrivals, apparently); Brexit is likely to turn a car crash situation into a multi-plane midair collision above a large population centre type analogy when it comes to housing and schools places shortages. Neither housing nor school provision are the sort of areas where "market fawces" can be got to work quickly in terms of remedying shortfall. One employee of a large finance firm I saw quoted reckons that most firms will want a presence in Dublin if there's a Brexit.

More builders urgently required...


Yeah morticia....... that's my biggest worry.... how are we going to house the "Hooray Henrys" who rush across the Irish sea to work in the IFSC.:rolleyes:

DCon
21-03-2016, 03:59 AM
Yeah morticia....... that's my biggest worry.... how are we going to house the "Hooray Henrys" who rush across the Irish sea to work in the IFSC.:rolleyes:

It's not how we house them

Their firms will pay top dollar to house them

It's the knock on effect of the housing they take

DCon
21-03-2016, 03:59 AM
Yeah morticia....... that's my biggest worry.... how are we going to house the "Hooray Henrys" who rush across the Irish sea to work in the IFSC.:rolleyes:

It's not how we house them

Their firms will pay top dollar to house them

It's the knock on effect of the housing they take

barrym
21-03-2016, 06:21 AM
All speculation on the results of Brexit are just that, speculations. If there is Brexit (debateable, it is a long time until June), then there will be 2+ years of negotation on what happens now. Of course there will be chancers selling buildings, investment opportunities and other bullsh** befoe June.

Donal Og
21-03-2016, 10:44 AM
The only way market fawces have ever remedied anything in the Dublin property scene is by causing people - Irish or foreign - to give up the unequal struggle and ***** off to somewhere more sensible.😨

fluffybiscuits
23-03-2016, 08:51 PM
It's not how we house them

Their firms will pay top dollar to house them

It's the knock on effect of the housing they take

Will drive prices higher up in Eastwall and IFSC with the latter being at a premium already

morticia
24-03-2016, 09:03 PM
It's not how we house them

Their firms will pay top dollar to house them

It's the knock on effect of the housing they take

Precisely. Think about what a boom in the top 20% of housing stock will do to rental prices.

It means more homeless families via the domino effect

morticia
24-03-2016, 09:03 PM
It's not how we house them

Their firms will pay top dollar to house them

It's the knock on effect of the housing they take

Precisely. Think about what a boom in the top 20% of housing stock will do to rental prices.

It means more homeless families via the domino effect

barrym
26-03-2016, 06:03 AM
What thread am I on?

morticia
06-04-2016, 09:07 PM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/britain-cant-afford-to-leave-the-eu-1459878383

The cruel reality that the Tory "Leave Campaign" supremacists are trying soon hard to ignore..:(

random new yorker
06-04-2016, 10:14 PM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/britain-cant-afford-to-leave-the-eu-1459878383

The cruel reality that the Tory "Leave Campaign" supremacists are trying soon hard to ignore..:(

ih ih ..yes.. that's why i'd enjoy that show :)

but i guess i shouldn't say that cos it would throw a massive wrench into Ireland' economy as well (where's the angel emoticon?)

Ephilant
07-04-2016, 05:35 AM
Brexit supporters got an unexpected boost, when the Dutch voted (in a legally required referendum) to reject the EU - Ukraine deal already signed by the 27 other EU members. The deal was rejected by a margin of 2 - 1 against, and the voting numbers reached the required 30% for the result to be "considered" by the Dutch government. It is not a binding "no", but Mark Rutte (Dutch PM) stated last night


“It’s clear that ‘No’ have won by an overwhelming margin, the question is only if turnout is sufficient,” Rutte stated. “If the turnout is above 30 percent with such a large margin of victory for the ‘No’ camp then my sense is that ratification can’t simply go ahead.” At that stage he did not know that the 30% minimum had been reached.

In the Ukraine, opposition leader Aleksander Vilkul, a leader of the Opposition Bloc Party, stated:


“This is like a cold shower for the Ukrainian politicians who believe that loud shouting and wild hopping is more important than efficient work. This is an assessment to those who think that no one will notice excessive corruption.

Obviously, the EU commission and the Ukrainian government are NOT happy. Will this once again result in a "go back and vote correctly" attitude? Somehow, I don't think the Dutch will roll over as easy as some others did...

random new yorker
08-04-2016, 01:56 PM
How do you think the Panama Papers will affect Brexit?
RNY

------

David Cameron Did Own Shares In His Late Father’s Offshore Trust (http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/david-cameron-did-own-shares-in-his-late-fathers-offshore-tr#.nopjz8EPZ)
Cameron: Of course I did own stocks and shares in the past, quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker.
The PM sold them for around £30,000 in 2010, he told ITV News. Labour said it was an “extraordinary admission”.

David Cameron Admits to Benefiting from Offshore Trust (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/panama-papers-david-cameron-admits-he-did-have-a-stake-in-father-ian-camerons-offshore-investment-a6973586.html)

The pressure's mounting, but the British prime minister insists he has "nothing to hide." His late father's offshore trust was exposed by the Panama Papers earlier this week, but Cameron says he sold all of his shares before assuming office in 2010. The conservative leader has undergone days of questioning about the trust, and about his 2013 letter urging EU leadership to exempt offshore trusts from transparency rules. Some opposition leaders are calling for his resignation, and the allegations could weaken Cameron as he fights against a potential (http://www.ozy.com/pov/simonomics-on-the-brexit-whats-at-stake/67867) Brexit.

DCon
17-04-2016, 09:46 PM
Latest poll




BRITAIN is more perplexed than ever about the EU referendum – leaving a huge 17 million votes still up for grabs, a new poll for The Sun has revealed.

The exclusive ComRes survey shows the number who still don’t know whether to back Remain or Leave has gone up by 6% since last month to 17%.





http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/02805/table-2-main_2805197a.jpg



http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/02805/table-1-main_2805196a.jpg



http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/02805/table-3-main_2805198a.jpg



http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/7082549/17-million-votes-are-still-up-for-grabs-as-Britain-left-more-perplexed-than-ever-about-the-EU-referendum.html

morticia
25-04-2016, 08:49 PM
Right, so the majority of Sun readers know less about what they're voting on than everyone else, but they're determined to vote No regardless....

Why does that come as such a surprise? (not...)

morticia
25-04-2016, 08:49 PM
Right, so the majority of Sun readers know less about what they're voting on than everyone else, but they're determined to vote No regardless....

Why does that come as such a surprise? (not...)

pluralist
10-05-2016, 03:33 AM
Saturday, 7 May 2016
Text of Resignation Letter to Labour Party Dated Today

Dear X –

It is with regret that I resign from the Labour Party. Could you remove me from all membership and e-circulation lists? I do not think this will come as a surprise but it strikes me as good mannered to give some reasons. It would appear that I made a mistake in re-joining the Party and it is for me to take responsibility for my misjudgement. The reasons may, however, be instructive because I am not alone in my concerns.


1 Lack of Respect for Dissent Within the Tradition

The insulting response by the Labour In Europe representative to my dissenting position on the European Referendum and the failure of the Chair to offer any reasonable opportunity for a reply would not in itself be sufficient cause to leave.

What provided sufficient cause alongside other issues of concern was the discovery that a Party Conference decision was not merely the basis for the decision of the Party Leadership to unite around the pro-Remain policy (which is reasonable) but that it was clear that those who disagreed with the policy would, more generally, not be treated with respect but rather treated as the enemy within.

I was not alone across the Party in finding pressure, often bullying (though I would never accuse anyone in XXXXXXXXX CLP of this), being placed on Members not to promote a dissident view but to follow a ‘line’, an attitude that I thought was one that went out with the old Communist Party. This lack of respect for reasonable dissent within the democratic socialist tradition was, frankly, shocking.

2 Lack of Respect for Evidence-Based Debate

The recent furore over Livingstone’s radio comments was equally disturbing. In fact, Livingstone had expressed an opinion based on a reasonable interpretation of certain facts. He had not expressed any anti-Semitic opinion whatsoever and that was clear at the time. Another MP then barracked him aggressively in public and in an un-comradely way.

Again, if this had resulted in an open debate about what Livingstone said, it would be classed as political education. It may be that the balance of opinion might reasonably have contested his position. Instead, Livingstone was virtually witch-hunted in public and the MP who verbally attacked him not only escaped any censure for his appalling behaviour but was protected by the Whips.

The matter was then ‘framed’ in the media as one of general antisemitism (which was un-evidenced) in terms that bode ill for future freedom of debate and speech. Once again, the Party appeared to be moving towards the adoption of ‘lines’ and the rejection of open debate and away from a strategy of public political education which is the only way to engage honourably with the British people.

One aspect of this farrago was that the thuggish behaviour of the Labour Right and the intemperate arguments of the Labour Left were both derivative of the fact that each had its own constituency based on identity, Jewish or Left-Muslim in this case, which leads me to the third reason …

3 The Infiltration of the Party by Identity Politics

One thing that has radically changed since my earlier period with the Party is the further intensification of American-style identity politics as an acceptable ideology for a democratic socialist party. I find myself very uncomfortable with identity politics because it collectivises not the people as a whole but sections of the population around their attributes and beliefs. It is an indirect concession to fascism.

This is not to argue against action against discrimination and inequality when it disproportionately affects people with certain attributes (gay, black, female or whatever) but only to argue that action on discrimination and for equality is based on people being persons first and having attributes second. Identity politics creates communitarian blocs in which activists purport to speak for others.

Locally, I was disturbed at the dominant role played by radical feminism and was particularly disturbed to find local activists both giving a platform to a rival party (the Women’s Equality Party) and organising and publicising an event which would be ‘women only’, discriminating against men and using the Party brand for a sub-ideology of exclusiveness.

There is no issue here with supporting the Women’s Equality Party or with having women-only or men-only events in a free society. There is every issue with a democratic socialist party conniving in this or any other form of sectarian behaviour. It would be equally disturbing if we were offered Muslim only meetings or LGBT only meetings under the Labour ‘brand’. I want nothing of this.


What do all these have in common? They represent a closed-in exclusive activist ideology that is deeply alienating to dissent within the democratic socialist tradition – a person can be disrespected because they are a) critical of the European Project, b) educated, meaning here willing to test opinions against facts and undertake a civilised debate, and c) male (and, no doubt, the wrong skin colour in some contexts).

Enough is enough. The Party was founded on general working-class representation and on Enlightenment principles based on educational improvement and equality. The post-Marxist infiltration of the Party has created something else entirely – a liberal-left middle class party that expects group-think as a matter of course and reinstates communitarian ideology in place of political pragmatism and liberation ideology.

This has little to do with Left and Right – I am a Corbyn supporter and the Labour Right have led on the promotion of identity politics – but everything to do with civilisation and progress. The Labour Right are far more culpable in general than the incoming Left but I am reluctant to waste the rest of my life trying to contribute to a Party in a state of near-civil war, one in which my core values are clearly not respected.

Having said all that, I want to emphasise that there is no rancour or issue with the local Party (other than the failure to challenge visiting officials and identity activists). I know that the members are hard-working, decent, intelligent and good people who have made great strides in a very conservative local environment. I wish them individually well but it would be wrong to stay silent.

Unfortunately, I cannot wish a Party well that I fear would bring its new habits of discrimination, authoritarianism and evasion and avoidance of challenging debate into high office. Armed with the machinery of the State, there is a serious risk that this culture of disrespect for dissent, of rejection of open debate in favour of media brawling and of discriminatory identity politics could become oppressive.

It is simply not enough to say that we should put up with these flaws in order to ensure a Labour Government, especially one that can reverse neo-liberal austerity measures. History teaches us that a Government that does not have core values based on reason and respect is a very dangerous Government and an anti-austerity culturally authoritarian Government could be very dangerous indeed.

If the Labour Party wants to win my vote (since that is now what it has come down to), it will have to demonstrate to me and to others that it represents the interests of the whole working population and not that of special interests, that it adopts pragmatic evidence-based policies and that it can accommodate reasoned debate and criticism on major existential issues. At the moment, the Party is not for me.

The resignation is effective immediately.

Kind Regards

Tim Pendry

http://positionreserved.blogspot.ie/2016/05/text-of-resignation-letter-to-labour.html

Count Bobulescu
15-05-2016, 01:41 AM
Despite all the warnings of the consequences of a Brexit, polls suggest it's still close to 50/50. Looks like it's going to the wire. Wonder if the Scottish Nationalists will vote no en masse in hopes of tipping the balance to OUT, and thus reigniting the independence issue.

pluralist
15-05-2016, 02:00 AM
Despite all the warnings of the consequences of a Brexit, polls suggest it's still close to 50/50. Looks like it's going to the wire.

Not sure where you're getting this from. Bookies odds are 1/3 on for Remain.

Wonder if the Scottish Nationalists will vote no en masse in hopes of tipping the balance to OUT, and thus reigniting the independence issue. [/QUOTE]

I expect that Remainers will win and by a fairly comfortable margin. I would predict 42%/58% or so.

random new yorker
15-05-2016, 02:08 AM
Despite all the warnings of the consequences of a Brexit, polls suggest it's still close to 50/50. Looks like it's going to the wire. Wonder if the Scottish Nationalists will vote no en masse in hopes of tipping the balance to OUT, and thus reigniting the independence issue.

oh .. i was lookin for the like button here

random new yorker
15-05-2016, 02:25 AM
Read today that London is embracing the opportunity to set up a Panama gig a lot closer to its client base.

(hmmm .. why am i not surprised?)

is that related to Brexit?

may be Plan B?

as in ..

a man will have to make a living ...

or as i like to refer to them "The people with flexible morals"

Donal Og
15-05-2016, 05:31 PM
Closer than Jersey or the Isle of Man? Where on earth could it be! Maybe Dover. ☺

random new yorker
15-05-2016, 05:35 PM
Closer than Jersey or the Isle of Man? Where on earth could it be! Maybe Dover. ☺

why should ye take a ferry when ye can just cross the street? or take the elevator one floor down? :) :)

[ they will never let go of their grip on the monies - legal or not - cos well .. power ]

Count Bobulescu
15-05-2016, 10:35 PM
Re Pluralist @138

These polls suggest a 40/42 split with 14-18 still undecided. I'd call that close.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/britain-s-eu-referendum


https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/




http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

pluralist
15-05-2016, 11:27 PM
These polls suggest a 40/42 split with 14-18 still undecided. I'd call that close.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/britain-s-eu-referendum


https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/




http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/


Put your money where your mouth is, and bet on Brexit. If that's what you truly believe will happen.

Kapiche?

Count Bobulescu
15-05-2016, 11:44 PM
Oh I Kapiche aright. I hope the opposite will happen. Think Brexit would be crazy, but am surprised at how close the polls. After at first challenging my comment, but not responding to my evidence in support, i hope you now Kapiche!

pluralist
15-05-2016, 11:49 PM
Oh I Kapiche aright. I hope the opposite will happen. Think Brexit would be crazy, but am surprised at how close the polls. After at first challenging my comment, but not responding to my evidence in support, i hope you now Kapiche!

Care for a small wager then?

Count Bobulescu
15-05-2016, 11:52 PM
No!

pluralist
15-05-2016, 11:56 PM
No!

So you don't put your money where your mouth is.

That tells me something about you.

Count Bobulescu
16-05-2016, 12:24 AM
Care to say what it tells you, or is it a big national secret?

pluralist
16-05-2016, 12:51 AM
Care to say what it tells you, or is it a big national secret?

Would have thought it's clear enough.

random new yorker
16-05-2016, 03:15 PM
Not sure where you're getting this from. Bookies odds are 1/3 on for Remain.

Wonder if the Scottish Nationalists will vote no en masse in hopes of tipping the balance to OUT, and thus reigniting the independence issue. [/SIZE]

I expect that Remainers will win and by a fairly comfortable margin. I would predict 42%/58% or so.

how can you be so sure about these numbers? that doesn't add up with all the other data people have been gathering ... it seems to be so close that a major global event could tip it to Brexit (i think)

pluralist
16-05-2016, 03:45 PM
^ here you go: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

random new yorker
16-05-2016, 04:23 PM
^ here you go: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

interesting

do you have any piece the correlates the results in Betting v Polling in the real world? for past elections

pluralist
16-05-2016, 04:29 PM
interesting

do you have any piece the correlates the results in Betting v Polling in the real world? for past elections

Will try and find one....off the top of my head, I think the betting odds were largely accurate in the case of the Scots Indyref.

random new yorker
16-05-2016, 04:50 PM
Will try and find one....off the top of my head, I think the betting odds were largely accurate in the case of the Scots Indyref.

ok that is important ... do they also bet on international affairs?

what about on your recent 'gender equality laws'? do you recall what was?

Donal Og
16-05-2016, 09:06 PM
Paddy Power had Yes winning 1/10. So the bookies called that one right. I just looked at their website and the next Pope will be Tagie from the Philippines - at 5/1! Although Francis seems healthy and yer man is probably about 200 years old so don't bet the house on it.

DCon
16-05-2016, 09:14 PM
The Remain group have a very simple strategy to guarantee victory

Say that all European football players signed by English clubs will be in danger of needing work permits

Case closed

DCon
16-05-2016, 09:14 PM
The Remain group have a very simple strategy to guarantee victory

Say that all European football players signed by English clubs will be in danger of needing work permits

Case closed

random new yorker
16-05-2016, 10:47 PM
Paddy Power had Yes winning 1/10. So the bookies called that one right. I just looked at their website and the next Pope will be Tagie from the Philippines - at 5/1! Although Francis seems healthy and yer man is probably about 200 years old so don't bet the house on it.

well

here goes a really naive one

but.. ok

Is gambling legal in Ireland?

[also, do we have a profile of Paddy Power that enjoys this practice? male/female; age group; education level (well religion doesn't matter in Ire) that kinda stuff]

Donal Og
17-05-2016, 10:48 AM
Yes , gambling is quite legal here. As to the rest of your queries I couldn't say. Betting is one vice I never acquired. In the case of Brexit you would have to factor in more than for gay equality , which most people would see as ' victimless' whereas Brexit could have all sorts of ramifications. The power of incumbency comes into play too. The Labour govt actually held a referendum on membership in 1975. But by then UK had already been signed up - in 73- by the Conservative govt of Ted Heath. The British people voted to stay by a big margin. Britain was in deep doodoo after the oil price shock following Yom Kippur war..so there was no great desire to strike out alone.

pluralist
17-05-2016, 02:35 PM
Paddy Power had Yes winning 1/10. So the bookies called that one right.

Was only as short as that on the immediate eve of the referendum (I'm surprised they even kept the market open) but even from the early stages I think the odds favoured Vote Yes.

pluralist
17-05-2016, 02:39 PM
well

here goes a really naive one

but.. ok

Is gambling legal in Ireland?

[also, do we have a profile of Paddy Power that enjoys this practice? male/female; age group; education level (well religion doesn't matter in Ire) that kinda stuff]

I used to see a lot of reports on this kind of stuff because of a job I used to have, so in a way I'm a good person to ask.

The Paddy Power consumer demographic would be biased towards young and middle aged males (particularly for the heavier gamblers)

Lottery I think has more of an evenly spread demographic across genders, age groups, social classes.

While in general, gambling is legal in Ireland, Pat Rabbitte did a good thing a few years ago when he insisted that Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (dubbed the 'crack cocaine' of gambling) would not be allowed in Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/gambling-committee-chief-opposes-betting-machines-1.898604

C. Flower
17-05-2016, 06:41 PM
A whiff of panic from Tusk ?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36314814

DCon
17-05-2016, 08:00 PM
well

here goes a really naive one

but.. ok

Is gambling legal in Ireland?

[also, do we have a profile of Paddy Power that enjoys this practice? male/female; age group; education level (well religion doesn't matter in Ire) that kinda stuff]

Good analysis here, by an academic economist, on betting trends etc


http://theconversation.com/brexit-campaign-is-doomed-if-bookmakers-are-right-again-57514

random new yorker
18-05-2016, 03:33 AM
Good analysis here, by an academic economist, on betting trends etc


http://theconversation.com/brexit-campaign-is-doomed-if-bookmakers-are-right-again-57514

i have a very hard time believing these numbers... let's assume this could signal the vote of the young-to-middle-aged male?

random new yorker
18-05-2016, 03:47 AM
Yes , gambling is quite legal here.

hmm .. i had no clue ... ( Shaadi forgot to educate me on this ...)

so

No to Drugs but Yes to Gambling? they stimulate the same part of the human brain causing the same type of addiction


As to the rest of your queries I couldn't say. Betting is one vice I never acquired. In the case of Brexit you would have to factor in more than for gay equality , which most people would see as ' victimless' whereas Brexit could have all sorts of ramifications.

marriage equality is not exactly victimless (dunno i am not gay, but i hear)


.. Britain was in deep doodoo after the oil price shock following Yom Kippur war..so there was no great desire to strike out alone.

foreign policy landscape is changing a bit with Americans retreating (slightly) and maybe the Brits would see this as an opportunity to move into strategic places?

DCon
18-05-2016, 06:36 PM
i have a very hard time believing these numbers... let's assume this could signal the vote of the young-to-middle-aged male?

I do not think the average BREXIT punter is the same as the average football punter

And I have no reason to doubt the good Professor. And lots of reasons to believe him

random new yorker
19-05-2016, 03:51 PM
I do not think the average BREXIT punter is the same as the average football punter

And I have no reason to doubt the good Professor. And lots of reasons to believe him


have to check what 'betting' he refers to .. i am totally unfamiliar w this

Shaadi
19-05-2016, 04:24 PM
hmm .. i had no clue ... ( Shaadi forgot to educate me on this ...)

so

No to Drugs but Yes to Gambling? they stimulate the same part of the human brain causing the same type of addiction



marriage equality is not exactly victimless (dunno i am not gay, but i hear)



foreign policy landscape is changing a bit with Americans retreating (slightly) and maybe the Brits would see this as an opportunity to move into strategic places?

Well, you never asked and we don't see gambling as being a big deal. There's more than a few things going on re gambling and these Islands. Regular Gambling used to be frowned on and quite tightly regulated but like everything else that there's a legal market in where people need protecting from being preyed on by greedy big businesses, the lobbyists got the politicians to ease up on regulation and the Internet made it necessary to compete with foreign based gambling companies so there had to be more breaks given to keep the gambling cash onshore and in the country.

Culturally the UK and Ireland are very big into horses of all sizes and shapes to the point of obsession for a significant part of the population. Big Race meetings are national cultural events for the movers and shakers in society and there's a large amount of smaller events that are part of the local scene. Having a bet at/on these events is just fun for many people and many Racehorse trainers ( family, staff etc ) with insider knowledge try to supplement their incomes by gambling. Many smaller trainers and owners would go out of business if they weren't gambling with inside information.

Racehorses are a many billion Euro/Pound industry on these Islands ( particularly Ireland which has probably become the most successful racehorse breeding country in the world ) and very rich and influential people are very sympathetic to its needs so it gets what it wants. The other gambling formats ( those others that don't go through the bookmakers ) are much less favourably seen and treated ( aside from the National Lottery type scratch cards/draws etc which the Govt see as a cash cow tax on stupidity/wishful thinking ) with little support for the acceptance of Casinos.

I couldn't tell you how big of a problem Gambling has become here because there were always people who hung around in bookmakers foolishly betting on anything and everything and that volume of mug punters seems to be stable and managable.

What goes on in the privacy of homes re internet gambling 24-7 365 days a year is unknown, rarely discussed and largely uncontrollable.

The legal drug Alcohol is a far far greater problem here than gambling is and it's another industry that has powerful friends intent on keeping the drink flowing.




The victimless crime quip re marriage equality was probably referring to it costing voters nothing out of their own particular pockets to give people their rights, a win win vote.


Yes old blighty has notions about being a major player outside the EU but really I can't see them having much long term success re inserting themselves into the affairs of others. They lack the critical mass required in the modern age to push your weight around. They'll have to reinvent themselves as a manufacturing nation if they're going to make a success out of a Brexit and keeping a very large population in the lifestyle they expect.

I wouldn't pass a bit of heed in the so called wisdom of punters re Brexit or much else. Prices for a Brexit are more attractive than the ones for no Brexit so naturally few smaller punters would be betting the huge amounts necessary to make a decent return on stingy odds for a no Brexit.

pluralist
19-05-2016, 09:30 PM
have to check what 'betting' he refers to .. i am totally unfamiliar w this

You do know (or perhaps you don't) that the trend in the US is towards liberalisation of gambling markets, ever since an important DoJ ruling in 2011?

http://www.gamblingsites.com/online-gambling-jurisdictions/us/

random new yorker
20-05-2016, 03:20 AM
You do know (or perhaps you don't) that the trend in the US is towards liberalisation of gambling markets, ever since an important DoJ ruling in 2011?

http://www.gamblingsites.com/online-gambling-jurisdictions/us/

yes i do know that

they (casino owners) proved themselves to be the best friends a politician could have as elections come and go

a recent development nevertheless.. .and in the US (in my circles) it is more or less accepted that if you have a gambler in the family you have a problem

random new yorker
20-05-2016, 04:05 AM
Well, you never asked and we don't see gambling as being a big deal. There's more than a few things going on re gambling and these Islands. Regular Gambling used to be frowned on and quite tightly regulated but like everything else that there's a legal market in where people need protecting from being preyed on by greedy big businesses, the lobbyists got the politicians to ease up on regulation and the Internet made it necessary to compete with foreign based gambling companies so there had to be more breaks given to keep the gambling cash onshore and in the country.

sorry i put you on the spot .. .you know you DON'T have to reply to these if i have one question or another

it never came up until the Count stated he had placed a bet on Kasich for R nominee and i thought ... ermm ahn.. what's that? he spoke of it with such panache it sounded like this is 'business as usual' and i took it as his own quirk, didn't realize it may be socially accepted in Ireland, or something ye all do as a group and it is ok.
Per my judgement, people betting on who is going to be the nominee for the R or D side is like throwing money in the garbage bin' ... but this is not about my judgement. (and sorry, its a bit late here and i dont recall what you guys call garbage.. litter? ) ..



Culturally the UK and Ireland are very big into horses of all sizes and shapes to the point of obsession for a significant part of the population. Big Race meetings are national cultural events for the movers and shakers in society and there's a large amount of smaller events that are part of the local scene. Having a bet at/on these events is just fun for many people and many Racehorse trainers ( family, staff etc ) with insider knowledge try to supplement their incomes by gambling. Many smaller trainers and owners would go out of business if they weren't gambling with inside information.

maybe that is the reason betting on horses (and dog racing) is big in Appalachia .. especially in Kentucky. In the Coasts it is less 'accepted'...


Racehorses are a many billion Euro/Pound industry on these Islands ( particularly Ireland which has probably become the most successful racehorse breeding country in the world ) and very rich and influential people are very sympathetic to its needs so it gets what it wants. The other gambling formats ( those others that don't go through the bookmakers ) are much less favourably seen and treated ( aside from the National Lottery type scratch cards/draws etc which the Govt see as a cash cow tax on stupidity/wishful thinking ) with little support for the acceptance of Casinos.

I guess i can blame the Wall Street culture on ye guys as well .. thank you for that!

one important piece of info i need from the par above: everyone bets on horses across social strata?


I couldn't tell you how big of a problem Gambling has become here because there were always people who hung around in bookmakers foolishly betting on anything and everything and that volume of mug punters seems to be stable and managable.

What goes on in the privacy of homes re internet gambling 24-7 365 days a year is unknown, rarely discussed and largely uncontrollable.

The legal drug Alcohol is a far far greater problem here than gambling is and it's another industry that has powerful friends intent on keeping the drink flowing.

ah but what would be of life without a good glass of wine? (my dad used to say :) ) ... [ ye caint live without the booze - mesays]


Yes old blighty has notions about being a major player outside the EU but really I can't see them having much long term success re inserting themselves into the affairs of others. They lack the critical mass required in the modern age to push your weight around. They'll have to reinvent themselves as a manufacturing nation if they're going to make a success out of a Brexit and keeping a very large population in the lifestyle they expect.

manufacturing by homo sapiens (regular ole people) is over ... machines are smart enough to do that now ...and in my view, asians are better equipped to let that happen..

Shaadi
21-05-2016, 04:03 PM
sorry i put you on the spot .. .you know you DON'T have to reply to these if i have one question or another

it never came up until the Count stated he had placed a bet on Kasich for R nominee and i thought ... ermm ahn.. what's that? he spoke of it with such panache it sounded like this is 'business as usual' and i took it as his own quirk, didn't realize it may be socially accepted in Ireland, or something ye all do as a group and it is ok.
Per my judgement, people betting on who is going to be the nominee for the R or D side is like throwing money in the garbage bin' ... but this is not about my judgement. (and sorry, its a bit late here and i dont recall what you guys call garbage.. litter? ) ..

Do you enjoy solving tricky puzzles? Some betting is brainless and instant like tossing a coin and some betting like the Count was engaged in using your own judgement is like attempting to solve a puzzle, with the bet being the entrance fee to a competition and the potential winnings being the prize for solving the puzzle. You pay for the thrill you get from having a financial stake in the outcome of a race and if you're operating from a position of insider knowledge/shrewdness it may be also be a day's work for you.

There are considerable differences between types of betting and the reasons people engage in them and how much entertainment and enjoyment people get from betting.

We call garbage rubbish, litter to us is the stuff that people should put in the bin but abandon on the street instead.




e that is the reason betting on horses (and dog racing) is big in Appalachia .. especially in Kentucky. In the Coasts it is less 'accepted'... There's a few things going on there, Kentucky has been a huge centre of breeding and racing for a very long time, where you've lots of racehorses you'll have lots of people touched by that industry and interested in gambling on them. The Irish in the Appalachians AFAIK came from Northern-Irish Presbyterian stock who'd have been scornful of gambling and the idea of hillbillys backing horses regularly doesn't sit right, but there's a tradition in Ireland of a lot of farmers keeping a few horses to sell or to use for the hunt or racing. Racehorse ownership is usually the preserve of the rich and of people who breed or train those horses at various levels.



I guess i can blame the Wall Street culture on ye guys as well .. thank you for that!That's more a City Of London thing, the obnoxious vulgar loud trader with the flash lifestyle is a unique subset of society.



one important piece of info i need from the par above: everyone bets on horses across social strata?



ah but what would be of life without a good glass of wine? (my dad used to say :) ) ... [ ye caint live without the booze - mesays]The majority of people from all backgrounds will have gambled in some way over the years. The Lotto ( national lottery based on a draw of numbers ) being the most common type of gambling. People wouldn't really consider it as being gambling in the way that backing horses or playing poker would be and many that do it would never engage in any other sort of gambling.

Horseracing is another sport that most people would have had a bet on at some stage of their life. The bigger horseracing meetings are very popular social events where many people dress up for the day and socialise there, betting being a secondary activity for many people that would just go for the day out and where they'd have a few small money bets to have an interest in the racing itself. There'd be hardcore of professional gamblers and owners who'd bet large amounts of money there but they'd be only a tiny percent of the population. For the average citizen they'd rarely bet on horseracing unless they were at the races or if there was a huge racing event on such as the Irish or English grand national.

Bingo is still popular with the old dears, a social event. Some people play a friendly game of cards for money in the pub and no one sees it as being anything other than harmless fun.

Serious gambling would be seen as playing high stakes poker which is for people with gambling problems. The same with spending too much time and money in the bookies, you'd be seen as a sad case if you were gambling too much.

It's like your wine, enjoying the good things in life is seen in a good light while being addicted to anything is frowned on.








manufacturing by homo sapiens (regular ole people) is over ... machines are smart enough to do that now ...and in my view, asians are better equipped to let that happen..Don't know about the Asian thing, but there's huge trouble ahead for overpopulated countries such as the UK which will see big populations trying to compete with machines and not having much luck at it. I've a very pessimistic view of what the future of the proletariat is going to be

DCon
21-05-2016, 04:30 PM
RNY; one thing that the UK and Zireland have that is not really a "thing" anywhere else is what is called a bookies

This is a bookmakers shop and gambling is regularly done there. There will be several such shops in all towns and cities. In them one can bet on almost any sporting event and they will have numerous tbsp showing horse racing, dog racing and anything else that is on.

In the US you can only bet, outside of a casino, on racing events if you are at a racetrack . Completely different


http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01599/SNN1040COR_1599008a.jpg

http://racebetter.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Beat-The-Bookies.jpeg

random new yorker
21-05-2016, 08:14 PM
Do you enjoy solving tricky puzzles? Some betting is brainless and instant like tossing a coin and some betting like the Count was engaged in using your own judgement is like attempting to solve a puzzle, with the bet being the entrance fee to a competition and the potential winnings being the prize for solving the puzzle. You pay for the thrill you get from having a financial stake in the outcome of a race and if you're operating from a position of insider knowledge/shrewdness it may be also be a day's work for you.

There are considerable differences between types of betting and the reasons people engage in them and how much entertainment and enjoyment people get from betting.

:) i guess we can blame Wall Street gambling behavior on ye guys (UK and Zireland). ... As you can see from your description above this is exactly the reason Wall Street 'bookies' felt it would be fun to play with our monies.

Insider trading is illegal and twas the reason Martha Stewart landed in jail for 6 months. I guess where i am trying to get is gambling (at that level) is discouraged cos it enables the same type of behavior in other areas that can carry a much higher price to society in general ... if you spending 5 bucks on lotto every week.. meh ..no problem.. 1000 a month on racehorses is a bit more problematic for the family ... betting my entire 401K savings for a number of years now could lead to another world war .. you agree?

it is all a matter of how much and how often you go back for more of 'that' type of fun :)


There's a few things going on there, Kentucky has been a huge centre of breeding and racing for a very long time, where you've lots of racehorses you'll have lots of people touched by that industry and interested in gambling on them. The Irish in the Appalachians AFAIK came from Northern-Irish Presbyterian stock who'd have been scornful of gambling and the idea of hillbillys backing horses regularly doesn't sit right, but there's a tradition in Ireland of a lot of farmers keeping a few horses to sell or to use for the hunt or racing. Racehorse ownership is usually the preserve of the rich and of people who breed or train those horses at various levels.

That's more a City Of London thing, the obnoxious vulgar loud trader with the flash lifestyle is a unique subset of society.

yes and racehorse tracks are legal all over the US ..and dog racing as well (although not sure dog racing is legal in all states?)



The majority of people from all backgrounds will have gambled in some way over the years. The Lotto ( national lottery based on a draw of numbers ) being the most common type of gambling. People wouldn't really consider it as being gambling in the way that backing horses or playing poker would be and many that do it would never engage in any other sort of gambling.

Horseracing is another sport that most people would have had a bet on at some stage of their life. The bigger horseracing meetings are very popular social events where many people dress up for the day and socialise there, betting being a secondary activity for many people that would just go for the day out and where they'd have a few small money bets to have an interest in the racing itself. There'd be hardcore of professional gamblers and owners who'd bet large amounts of money there but they'd be only a tiny percent of the population. For the average citizen they'd rarely bet on horseracing unless they were at the races or if there was a huge racing event on such as the Irish or English grand national.

Bingo is still popular with the old dears, a social event. Some people play a friendly game of cards for money in the pub and no one sees it as being anything other than harmless fun.

Serious gambling would be seen as playing high stakes poker which is for people with gambling problems. The same with spending too much time and money in the bookies, you'd be seen as a sad case if you were gambling too much.

It's like your wine, enjoying the good things in life is seen in a good light while being addicted to anything is frowned on.

Kentucky is without a doubt the capital of racehorse shows, where the big prizes are .. i have met some of these people here too .. and yes understand the higher the stakes the higher the socialtes socializing :)

Bingo et al is falling out of fashion here cos the old ladies are passing on

i dont have numbers on this but it would be interesting to see a breakdown on gambling by age here in the US ..

no judgement from me.. i was aware of the gambling here in US (which is becoming more accepted everywhere, including casino gambling), racehorses etc (i truly dislike dog racing tho) but i made a comment i didnt know it came from those islands ..

i am a lot more interested in finding out how it is used to predict election results than the gambling itself ..

nothing wrong w having some pleasures in life .. i'll stick with my wine tho .. :)



Don't know about the Asian thing, but there's huge trouble ahead for overpopulated countries such as the UK which will see big populations trying to compete with machines and not having much luck at it. I've a very pessimistic view of what the future of the proletariat is going to be

that belongs in the Marxist thread... i'll move it there later

briefly ... how do you explain to Marxists n Trotys that 'the proletariat' does not exist in the West anymore?

gotta go

Donal Og
21-05-2016, 08:45 PM
There's not much to explain. The poor still exist..in growing numbers.Its the jobs which don't exist.

random new yorker
21-05-2016, 09:09 PM
RNY; one thing that the UK and Zireland have that is not really a "thing" anywhere else is what is called a bookies

This is a bookmakers shop and gambling is regularly done there. There will be several such shops in all towns and cities. In them one can bet on almost any sporting event and they will have numerous tbsp showing horse racing, dog racing and anything else that is on.

In the US you can only bet, outside of a casino, on racing events if you are at a racetrack . Completely different


http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01599/SNN1040COR_1599008a.jpg

http://racebetter.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Beat-The-Bookies.jpeg

WoW ! that is indeed very different .. there are some shops here more or less all over where you can buy the Lotto and that type of small change 'gaming'..

now that i think about it ..

i wonder if this is also the reason you guys are NOT risk averse in those islands .. or certainly, not as risk averse as the rest of the euro populace... .

hence here's your social behavior that 'cradled/nurtured' capitalism ..

Saoirse go Deo
21-05-2016, 09:32 PM
They even have virtual racing that one can bet on. My guilty pleasure is horse racing. Despite squeamishness with regards to the amount of injuries to horses nothing comes close to the drama and excitement of national hunt racing (not too much o that in America).... even better when you have some money on it. Only at the race course and only in cash is what I try to stick to.

random new yorker
21-05-2016, 09:43 PM
There's not much to explain. The poor still exist..in growing numbers.Its the jobs which don't exist.

the poor have always existed ... the concept of the 'proletariat' (although of Roman constitution origin) is a 19/20th century invention by Marx and Co ( :) ) .. [ the age of the concept could be debated but that is not the point ]

what we were discussing in the other thread is the ridiculous use of 100 year old concepts nowadays ..

if in my lifetime i am able to witness simple facts that attest to society's evolution: grandma had 10 kids ~100 years ago to keep up w agriculture/early industrializ + the fact that only 1/2 was expected to reach adulthood, mom had 4 to keep up w industrialized economy, i had 2 cos i have to worry about them becoming highly trained specialists of one kind or another), why do historians (and many others in the humanities) fail to understand this, that evolution drives it all and thus, a certain number of concepts need to be updated.

Yes the poor exist today and are as real as they were 100 or 2000 years ago. The concept of the proletariat as defined by Marx is basically non-existent in the West. This idea that manufacturing jobs are going to come back to our shores is as outdated today as someone thinking they should be having 10 children. It shows that these folks never had an opportunity to visit an industrial complex of any kind in the past 50 years.

Shaadi
21-05-2016, 11:46 PM
:) i guess we can blame Wall Street gambling behavior on ye guys (UK and Zireland). ... As you can see from your description above this is exactly the reason Wall Street 'bookies' felt it would be fun to play with our monies. It's 234 years and counting since America gained its independence.:rolleyes:

Gambling implies taking a personal risk. Gambling with other people's money is something else, especially when the game is rigged. Makey uppey financial products, makey uppey collateral and giant companies with Govt in their pockets playing their clients and whole countries for suckers is fraud. The house never really loses!



insider trading is illegal and twas the reason Martha Stewart landed in jail for 6 months. I guess where i am trying to get is gambling (at that level) is discouraged cos it enables the same type of behavior in other areas that can carry a much higher price to society in general ... if you spending 5 bucks on lotto every week.. meh ..no problem.. 1000 a month on racehorses is a bit more problematic for the family ... betting my entire 401K savings for a number of years now could lead to another world war .. you agree?You're putting the cart before the horse. Your savings/pension funds are probably being gambled by financial institutions. There's no country on the planet which has had more power to limit the fraudulent gambling of trillions in pension funds by Wall Street type economics than the uptight about personal gambling US of A.



it is all a matter of how much and how often you go back for more of 'that' type of fun :) Exactly, you could spend your entire life savings on a vintage bottle of wine if you were silly enough to do so. Silly levels of personal gambling are just one of a myriad of potentially destructive personal vices that people succumb to.




yes and racehorse tracks are legal all over the US ..and dog racing as well (although not sure dog racing is legal in all states?)

Kentucky is without a doubt the capital of racehorse shows, where the big prizes are .. i have met some of these people here too .. and yes understand the higher the stakes the higher the socialtes socializing :) There are plenty of big money racetracks around the states that match and exceed the prize money in Kentucky. Kentucky is the hub, the spiritual homeland of American racing and the centre of racehorse breeding in the US. The Big Bucks are in the breeding and selling of top class racehorses, the prize money on the track is chump change to the big outfits. The US racing scene isn't all that healthy ATM and neither is its breeding industry. Bit of a worry for any country as the health of a countries horsey set is a bit of a bellwether as to the health of the monied classes.

PS: I'm more interested in horse pedigrees than I am in politics, not so much interested in betting because as a family man I have to be responsible..:)




Bingo et al is falling out of fashion here cos the old ladies are passing on Must be huge in Florida..:)


dont have numbers on this but it would be interesting to see a breakdown on gambling by age here in the US ..

no judgement from me.. i was aware of the gambling here in US (which is becoming more accepted everywhere, including casino gambling), racehorses etc (i truly dislike dog racing tho) but i made a comment i didnt know it came from those islands ..
Dog racing is a very small business here. Kind of a clubby mentality to it with generations of families that keep it going and for some strange reason other people enjoy a night out at the greyhound racing track where they can have a meal and drink while betting on the dogs, well supported by Govt help and quite civilized. It amuses me how outraged people are over the treatment of well minded racing animals while chomping down on factory farmed animals who endure horrible lives.





lot more interested in finding out how it is used to predict election results than the gambling itself ..

nothing wrong w having some pleasures in life .. i'll stick with my wine though.It's quite simple and very complex. Bookies pay for access to polling data and have very clever odds setters who set the odds to reflect the probability of the result, they then adjust their odds based on how much money they stand to lose or win from the bets placed and based on new polling data. Polling data has far more relevance to the odds available than the amounts wagered have, the bookies in turn lay off bets taken to other bookies so that their book on an event will usually deliver a small winning margin for the bookie regardless of the result. It's all in the margins.

Notions of the collective wisdom of small punters on political events make little sense to me as they have no access to information that's not readily available to all.



that belongs in the Marxist thread... i'll move it there later

briefly ... how do you explain to Marxists n Trotys that 'the proletariat' does not exist in the West anymore?

gotta goYou don't bother, they're not interested in listening to any POV that contradicts their faith and in truth the future is beyond our knowing because the type of change occurring is so unprecedented.

random new yorker
22-05-2016, 03:20 AM
They even have virtual racing that one can bet on.

so you ppl bet against a computer and take pleasure in that?


My guilty pleasure is horse racing. Despite squeamishness with regards to the amount of injuries to horses nothing comes close to the drama and excitement of national hunt racing (not too much o that in America).... even better when you have some money on it. Only at the race course and only in cash is what I try to stick to.

looks like a lot of people here have the same guilty pleasure :)

national hunt? racing .. hunting what?

Count Bobulescu
22-05-2016, 03:29 AM
Just to clarify, I don't consider myself a betting man. The bet I placed on Kasich was probably the first I made in 10 years, and have no "immediate" plans to place another. Shaadi is correct. I did it for fun and to test my political chops. I fancy myself as a pundit. :-)

RNY on the issue of Irish/Uk betting, used to be that the betting shops in DCon's photo sometimes had a sign over the door that read "Turf Accountant" to lend an air of respectability doncha know.

Check out the A-Z left side of the Paddy Power link and click on politics.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet

Because the legality of online betting in the US is currently "up in the air" (courts, but not the Supremes, have said it's legal, but both Bush and Obama have said no) fantasy sports betting evolved as a way around, and now it too is under threat.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fantasy_sport

Count Bobulescu
22-05-2016, 03:38 AM
National Hunt? Jumping the fences Watch this nine minute race, jumping 30 fences.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiPEHfeVh-w

random new yorker
22-05-2016, 04:00 AM
It's 234 years and counting since America gained its independence.:rolleyes:

Gambling implies taking a personal risk.

Ah ... the fuel of capitalism... you can not have capitalism without a nation of risk takers .. compare the amount of capitalism in those islands w the same in the Continent and you will likely find strong linkage btw more risky behavior = more capitalism ...

makes sense to think of the US political system under that light now


Gambling with other people's money is something else, especially when the game is rigged. Makey uppey financial products, makey uppey collateral and giant companies with Govt in their pockets playing their clients and whole countries for suckers is fraud. The house never really loses!

nope. the behavior is exactly the same ... in this case they don't really think about whose money it is .. they are only after the adrenaline kick


The US racing scene isn't all that healthy ATM and neither is its breeding industry. Bit of a worry for any country as the health of a countries horsey set is a bit of a bellwether as to the health of the monied classes.

maybe that applies to the UK/Zireland but i dont think it applies in the US ... that is why i asked about age of betting ppl (in the US) .. if the racing scene in the US isnt that healthy it could be cos younger gen cares a lot less about horse or other racing


PS: I'm more interested in horse pedigrees than I am in politics, not so much interested in betting because as a family man I have to be responsible..:)

i knew you are a responsible family man, i am surprised however you are more interested in horses than in politics (tell us what is the best pedigree out there)


It's quite simple and very complex. Bookies pay for access to polling data and have very clever odds setters who set the odds to reflect the probability of the result, they then adjust their odds based on how much money they stand to lose or win from the bets placed and based on new polling data. Polling data has far more relevance to the odds available than the amounts wagered have, the bookies in turn lay off bets taken to other bookies so that their book on an event will usually deliver a small winning margin for the bookie regardless of the result. It's all in the margins.

capitalism is usually about the 'margins' ..

sounds like people are just betting on polling data, which ok, with the standard dev being so large allows for some possibility for fun.. the bookie always wins, that's why they stay in business and the joe walks to give him/her his money and walks out happy (the fasted way to give oneself hope) .. I want a business like that!


Notions of the collective wisdom of small punters on political events make little sense to me as they have no access to information that's not readily available to all.

if it was wisdom of small punters on political events and if they represented a wide cross (top down) of your society it could be relevant data

random new yorker
22-05-2016, 04:05 AM
[SIZE=4]Just to clarify, I don't consider myself a betting man. The bet I placed on Kasich was probably the first I made in 10 years, and have no "immediate" plans to place another. Shaadi is correct. I did it for fun and to test my political chops. I fancy myself as a pundit. :-)

:) of course ! i am well aware that you too are a responsible family man :)

the conversation here took a turn to the interesting when someone suggested betting data had a role to play in predicting politics

random new yorker
22-05-2016, 04:07 AM
National Hunt? Jumping the fences Watch this nine minute race, jumping 30 fences.

'what' do they hunt?

like a real living animal?

Saoirse go Deo
22-05-2016, 10:41 AM
'what' do they hunt?

like a real living animal?

They don't hunt anything, its just called that because they jump over things. For example there are races called steeplechases, such as the video posted above, which originated in the practice of racing cross country using church steeples as reference for the start and finish, jumping the various obstacles along the way. The wiki page is informative:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hunt_racing

The best races are over hurdles imo.

In flat racing if a horse is any good they are retired very quickly to stud. NH horses however can run until they are 10+ or so. For example my favorite horse Hurricane Fly retired last year http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2015/0831/724678-hurricane-fly/

Anyway this is all rather off-topic. I think the position of the parties up North on brexit is worth a closer look... Unionists for it, Nationalists against it, despite the fact that their individual national aims would be greater served if their opponent won the day on the brexit question.

Saoirse go Deo
22-05-2016, 10:41 AM
'what' do they hunt?

like a real living animal?

They don't hunt anything, its just called that because they jump over things. For example there are races called steeplechases, such as the video posted above, which originated in the practice of racing cross country using church steeples as reference for the start and finish, jumping the various obstacles along the way. The wiki page is informative:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hunt_racing

The best races are over hurdles imo.

In flat racing if a horse is any good they are retired very quickly to stud. NH horses however can run until they are 10+ or so. For example my favorite horse Hurricane Fly retired last year http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2015/0831/724678-hurricane-fly/

Anyway this is all rather off-topic. I think the position of the parties up North on brexit is worth a closer look... Unionists for it, Nationalists against it, despite the fact that their individual national aims would be greater served if their opponent won the day on the brexit question.

C. Flower
22-05-2016, 12:12 PM
Unionists for it, Nationalists against it, despite the fact that their individual national aims would be greater served if their opponent won the day on the brexit question.

The Brexit vote is mainly reactionary, racist and "Little Englander" politically. The EU institutions are an incipient new, bigger, and even less democratic Imperial power, overlapping with and competing with NATO. It is a knotty question as voting pro Brexit appears to feed to racist animals in the U.K.

"To hell with all of your imperialisms" is my reaction.

random new yorker
22-05-2016, 02:39 PM
Anyway this is all rather off-topic. I think the position of the parties up North on brexit is worth a closer look... Unionists for it, Nationalists against it, despite the fact that their individual national aims would be greater served if their opponent won the day on the brexit question.

thanks for the explanation

yea Shaadi and i can take a conversation (slightly) off topic when we get deep into it cos .. one thought leads to another, then another question comes up, and it is fun, one of the reasons i log in from time to time.

(so please don't tell me i can't have my slightly off topic conversations w Shaadi as he is the one that can put certain 'Irish' facts in context for a foreigner's understanding)

random new yorker
22-05-2016, 02:42 PM
The Brexit vote is mainly reactionary, racist and "Little Englander" politically. The EU institutions are an incipient new, bigger, and even less democratic Imperial power, overlapping with and competing with NATO. It is a knotty question as voting pro Brexit appears to feed to racist animals in the U.K.

"To hell with all of your imperialisms" is my reaction.

very good.

How is the EU an even less democratic Imperial power? (Compared to what?, to the UK? to the US?)

what is your proposed alternative?

C. Flower
22-05-2016, 05:17 PM
very good.

How is the EU an even less democratic Imperial power? (Compared to what?, to the UK? to the US?)

what is your proposed alternative?

Less democratic than either the US or the UK. At least when Cameron lost the vote against bombing Syria, he stopped the bombing.

I will rever to you on the other matter.

Shaadi
22-05-2016, 09:23 PM
Ah ... the fuel of capitalism... you can not have capitalism without a nation of risk takers .. compare the amount of capitalism in those islands w the same in the Continent and you will likely find strong linkage btw more risky behavior = more capitalism ...

makes sense to think of the US political system under that light nowBit like horse pedigrees, as we say in Ireland breeding would break out in an ass.





nope. the behavior is exactly the same ... in this case they don't really think about whose money it is .. they are only after the adrenaline kick Nope, the personal ardrenalin rush is a by-product of the risky behaviour engaged in the modern era on behalf of soulless corporations playing the percentages. Unlike gambling ( unless it's professional gambling ) where the punter is engaged in amusing themselves or torturing themselves. What we have nowadays is a perversion of traditional Capitalism where an entrepreneur took a risk and most of the rewards. Now everyone including traditional entrepreneurs are working for the financial industry.

In the modern era the stereotypical German and French models of good planning or exciting design are likely to yield a much better future for the human race than the current chaotic race to the bottom. Of course notions of the sensible carefulness of the Continentals towards financial planning have been blown away by what's gone on behind the scenes in those countries financial institutions.






maybe that applies to the UK/Zireland but i dont think it applies in the US ... that is why i asked about age of betting ppl (in the US) .. if the racing scene in the US isnt that healthy it could be cos younger gen cares a lot less about horse or other racingRacing isn't a young person's game bar doing the dirty work re riding the horses and cleaning the stables. It's a money racket, the tracks AFAIK are doing fine in the USA, it's the US's once vice like grip on the top levels of the international breeding industry that are gone. They sold off top broodmare stock to international concerns and there have been many dispersals of the best of their stud stock and stud farms as top stud owners in the USA got burned in various financial crisis over the last few decades. It's quite disappointing as US stock was by far and away the best in the world until recently.


i knew you are a responsible family man, i am surprised however you are more interested in horses than in politics (tell us what is the best pedigree out there)The best pedigree don't always produce the best racehorses, but they do most of the times and it's their ability to keep churning out a high percentage of top class winners and future breeding stock that makes the best pedigrees so valuable.

There was a big race today in Ireland where the winner was bought for just €12,000. It was a championship race for 3yo fillies and the best pedigree in that race belonged to a horse called Coolmore who finished last beaten by 43 lengths.

The beaten horse is still worth more than winner because she's much better bred and much more likely to produce a top winner than the impressive winner of the race is. The reason Coolmore the horse is worth so much is that she's from a family of horses that repeatedly produce top class horses.

She's by the top sire Galileo ( best sire in the world ) who charges €250,000? ( fee is no longer disclosed at this level) a pop to cover 200 mares a year generating up to €10 million a year. The mother ( dam ) of the horse Coolmore ( horse owned by app named after the biggest and most successful Stud farm in the World ) is what's called a blue hen. That blue hen tag is given to broodmares who produce multiple champion horses.

Coolmore the horse is a full sister to last years 2,000 Guineas winner Gleneagles and to the previous years Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Marvelous, Coolmore the horse is only the broodmare's third foal and she herself has some high class form despite flopping today.

Coolmore's dam is a broodmare called You're so thrilling who's out of a broodmare called Marian's Storm who also produced a legendary full brother to You're so thrilling called Giant's Causeway who won 5 top class races in Europe, nearly won the American Breeder's Cup classic and went on to become Champion Stallion in the US. The rest of her foals were either close to top class or the female ones have since produced top class horses, one of them won a reasonably big race yesterday. All through the horse Coolmore's pedigree are top class breeding stock other the male and female side. A potential broodmare like her is worth �3 million or more because it's from such stock that valuable horses come. Indeed the top pedigrees we're discussing now originated in the US and have been brought to Europe where they've been developed into the top bloodlines in the world. Ye've got to hang onto the top bloodlines or you'll run out of quality stock very rapidly.

People like me enjoy reading through a pedigree to understand what the horse may be capable of, what distance it should race at and knowing how it will be suited to different levels of competition. Science is beginning to take the fun out of understanding pedigrees. There's a link below to the Equinome company who have developed genetic tests to predict which speed genes and others a horse has. Trainers take it quite seriously and are beginning to plot their horses careers around the speed gene test. It may be of interest to you as a scientist.

http://www.equinome.com/

There's one particular man who drives the Coolmore Stud, through sheer grit, bringing in investors, intelligence, luck and ruthlessness he has developed the World's top stud and expanded to a size that can't be steamrolled by anyone not even the bottomless pockets of the Arab owners have been a match for his operation. His name is John Magnier and they say the softest thing about him is his teeth. Your kind of capitalist!









sounds like people are just betting on polling data, which ok, with the standard dev being so large allows for some possibility for fun.. the bookie always wins, that's why they stay in business and the joe walks to give him/her his money and walks out happy (the fasted way to give oneself hope) .. I want a business like that!



if it was wisdom of small punters on political events and if they represented a wide cross (top down) of your society it could be relevant dataYep, the punter is paying to play the gambling game, very few can make a living at it and if you're the type of person who has the ability to beat the bookies then the bookies will refuse to take your bets but there are other means to get bets on and online betting exchanges and spread betting have grown and will continue to grow.

I do enjoy a few modest bets on some events but I can't understand why people fire money into slot machines and crazy stuff like virtual racing where the computer is deciding the best result for the bookie.

The National Hunt racing Saoirse was talking about was developed from the Hunt where they chase a fox. People with good hunting horses decided to have races to prove who owned the best horse, hence the name National Hunt racing. Years ago many farmers would have had working horses on their farms and would have had a Hunt horse or two for themselves and to sell on to the Toffs. It's why there's such a strong connection to horses in this country.

random new yorker
23-05-2016, 12:05 AM
Racing isn't a young person's game bar doing the dirty work re riding the horses and cleaning the stables. It's a money racket, the tracks AFAIK are doing fine in the USA, it's the US's once vice like grip on the top levels of the international breeding industry that are gone. They sold off top broodmare stock to international concerns and there have been many dispersals of the best of their stud stock and stud farms as top stud owners in the USA got burned in various financial crisis over the last few decades. It's quite disappointing as US stock was by far and away the best in the world until recently.

The best pedigree don't always produce the best racehorses, but they do most of the times and it's their ability to keep churning out a high percentage of top class winners and future breeding stock that makes the best pedigrees so valuable.

There was a big race today in Ireland where the winner was bought for just €12,000. It was a championship race for 3yo fillies and the best pedigree in that race belonged to a horse called Coolmore who finished last beaten by 43 lengths.

The beaten horse is still worth more than winner because she's much better bred and much more likely to produce a top winner than the impressive winner of the race is. The reason Coolmore the horse is worth so much is that she's from a family of horses that repeatedly produce top class horses.

She's by the top sire Galileo ( best sire in the world ) who charges €250,000? ( fee is no longer disclosed at this level) a pop to cover 200 mares a year generating up to €10 million a year. The mother ( dam ) of the horse Coolmore ( horse owned by app named after the biggest and most successful Stud farm in the World ) is what's called a blue hen. That blue hen tag is given to broodmares who produce multiple champion horses.

Coolmore the horse is a full sister to last years 2,000 Guineas winner Gleneagles and to the previous years Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Marvelous, Coolmore the horse is only the broodmare's third foal and she herself has some high class form despite flopping today.

Coolmore's dam is a broodmare called You're so thrilling who's out of a broodmare called Marian's Storm who also produced a legendary full brother to You're so thrilling called Giant's Causeway who won 5 top class races in Europe, nearly won the American Breeder's Cup classic and went on to become Champion Stallion in the US. The rest of her foals were either close to top class or the female ones have since produced top class horses, one of them won a reasonably big race yesterday. All through the horse Coolmore's pedigree are top class breeding stock other the male and female side. A potential broodmare like her is worth �3 million or more because it's from such stock that valuable horses come. Indeed the top pedigrees we're discussing now originated in the US and have been brought to Europe where they've been developed into the top bloodlines in the world. Ye've got to hang onto the top bloodlines or you'll run out of quality stock very rapidly.


Not surprised this is followed by the UK upper classed with zeal and appreciation ... after all (to themselves) it proves the point of their existence over other less well-bred people.

Scientifically it is very easy to prove it and disprove it w Mendelian genetics which is compatible with natural selection.

It is what farmers have done since the advent of Agriculture. We first domesticated plants and animals using this technique to fast-forward natural selection.

If you breed top-racing horses of course you are selecting for traits like speed off the box, endurance, two different types of muscles for each trait. It doesn't mean you will get a top racing horse off a mare + stud prize winners. The gamble then lies in betting your money in that first race assuming mendelian genetics has done a job that will benefit yer pocket.

The connection with the british upper crust is that i believe they have been doing the same for the past what? maybe 500 years (how old is the current house of Windsor?) so it would be interesting to see what genes they have been selecting for (their 'stud' voices are very effeminate - if we go by Cameron last apologies to the public on behalf of his deceased dad - so we can start with that trait ...)

It also means that you can start another horse breeding colony down in Argentina and in about 100 years you can get the same results ..

AND you can use genetic engineering (now we have gene editing) and get yourself a mare and a stud that will increase your odds of winning in maybe 20 years (ye save 4 generations) ..


People like me enjoy reading through a pedigree to understand what the horse may be capable of, what distance it should race at and knowing how it will be suited to different levels of competition. Science is beginning to take the fun out of understanding pedigrees. There's a link below to the Equinome company who have developed genetic tests to predict which speed genes and others a horse has. Trainers take it quite seriously and are beginning to plot their horses careers around the speed gene test. It may be of interest to you as a scientist.

http://www.equinome.com/



you can read through a pedigree of a horse to guess what the horse is capable of but NONE of it would be fun if you didn't have to bet your money to prove yourself right knowing that it really is unpredictable... (ye should have been a geneticist - - a lot more fun - - I promise)

mendelian genetics teaches us that if you breed pure purple peas with pure white peas ye get purple peas (not a blend of the two) 3/4 times + 1 pea being white (25%).. so yes you can select for traits but you only get yer money back if you bet in the 4 offspring (not just in one).. then ye have fun cos ye never know if your golden gilded horse on the track is your purple pure bred (BB) or the white slow racer (bb) of the brood that will have his tibia bone explode live on the track (more excitement)... (and yes, I am not even discussing the other 50% - the Bb - most of the offspring of this exquisite pair).


There's one particular man who drives the Coolmore Stud, through sheer grit, bringing in investors, intelligence, luck and ruthlessness he has.... His name is John Magnier and they say the softest thing about him is his teeth. Your kind of capitalist!

is this statement meant to keep us on track/topic ?

or, you think the softest thing about me is my teeth :) ?

the keepers of the gates will be thrown off track w this one ..

( mmm .. .will horse racing n betting lead to Brexit? ... or, will Brexit lead to more horse racing n betting? :confused: )

Count Bobulescu
25-05-2016, 05:16 PM
The WTO guy leans in.........



-- By Hanne Cokelaere
5/25/16, 5:16 PM CET

In an interview with the Financial Times (http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=c030a3f1a6&e=2af8d0786d) published today, World Trade Organization Director-General Roberto Azevêdo warned of the consequences for Britain’s membership should voters decide to leave the EU in June.


“It is a very important decision for the British people,” Azevêdo said. “But it is very important, particularly with regard to trade, which is something very important for the British economy, that people have the facts and that they don’t underestimate the challenges,” he added.
Azevêdo estimated that the additional tariff on imports would cost British consumers up to £9 billion, while British exports would be losing an extra £5.5 billion to other countries. The only alternative would be to make the U.K.’s economy duty-free, but that would leave politically sensitive domestic industries unprotected, he added.


The U.K. joined the WTO along with the rest of the EU and the terms of its accession have been developed after lengthy negotiations with the bloc. If Brexit occurs, the U.K. would not be able to keep these terms, Azevêdo said. “Pretty much all of the U.K.’s trade would somehow have to be negotiated,” he added.


It would be an unprecedented situation since the WTO has never negotiated terms with an existing member. The talks would also be long. And after years under the auspices of the EU, the U.K. would first have to set up its own trade negotiating team.
And the process would be humiliating for a country that was one of the founders of the WTO’s predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

To view online: http://www.politico.eu/pro/wto-chief-warns-of-tough-road-ahead-for-the-u-k-in-case-of-brexit/ (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=a73bfabb5e&e=2af8d0786d)
To update your POLITICO Pro notification preferences, visit www.politico.eu/notification (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=123cd219d6&e=2af8d0786d)
Only POLITICO Pro subscribers have access to POLITICO Pro content. If you are interested in learning more about a POLITICO Pro subscription for your organization, please contact [email protected]

Count Bobulescu
26-05-2016, 03:14 AM
HOGAN WARNS OF BREXIT, AGAIN: Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan continued his campaign in support of keeping the U.K. in the EU, telling Farmers Guardian Insight that Brexit would cause significant problems for farmers in Northern Ireland and potentially create an immigration problem at the border with Ireland. In the interview, Hogan told the publication that CAP payments account for £8.70 of every £10 that farmers in Northern Ireland earn — far higher than the £5.30 for the rest of the U.K. “If it was not for EU assistance, many farms would generate significant losses and in cases, even fail to survive,” Hogan said. What’s more, Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland could become a target for EU residents trying to get into the U.K. illegally. “There is a concern about Dundalk being turned into a ‘Calais situation’ and our border towns would become a back-door entry point into the UK,” Hogan added. The full interview: http://bit.ly/27QQ4fh (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=1fefaeb24d&e=2af8d0786d), POLITICO wrote about Dundalk earlier this month so you should read that, too: http://politi.co/1U79qlK (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=d0951cff41&e=2af8d0786d)


BIG PHIL AND TEAM — WHAT ARE THEY UP TO? Hogan meets PEPSI CEO Indra Nooyi Wednesday. She’s one of the most powerful women in the world, according to Forbes. Today, Hogan’s senior advisor Dermot Ryan meets the New Breeding Techniques Platform to discuss upcoming EU diktats. (Are they GMOs? Aren’t they GMOs? You know the score.) More: http://bit.ly/1U79t1d (http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=5ebb51069b&e=2af8d0786d), more again: http://bit.ly/1U78u0V (http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=803404e27c&e=2af8d0786d)


BREXIT CORNER :


— Business ‘indifferent’ to Brexit, poll finds: Support among business for Britain staying in the EU has declined, according to a new survey which warned that a mounting burden of red tape was damaging confidence. The Telegraph: http://bit.ly/1OSyZLv (http://politico.us8.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=ead73d20cb&e=2af8d0786d)


— David Cameron’s former guru Steve Hilton comes out for Brexit: Steve Hilton, the prime minister’s ex-confidant, urges Leave vote for U.K. to take back power from “arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites.” POLITICO: http://politi.co/1VfuxHW (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=ece9891a8d&e=2af8d0786d)


— Jonathan Hill: Pro-Brexit side hasn’t done the homework: If Leave campaigners were students, they would be asked to redo their assignment, European Commissioner for Financial Services Jonathan Hill said. In a speech at the London School of Economics, the British EU official decried the Leave side’s lack of coherent economic vision in citing and rejecting different models — ranging from Norway to Albania — for future EU-U.K. trade relations in case of a Brexit. More on POLITICO Pro: http://politi.co/1WKPrjk (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=cfa334fdf5&e=2af8d0786d)


— Scots, Welsh, Greens take a stand against Brexit: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, added her voice to the EU referendum campaign, making what she called “the progressive case” for the U.K. remaining in the bloc and warning against “fear-mongering” on both sides of the debate. POLITICO: http://politi.co/1OIU3yy (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=1be8f05506&e=2af8d0786d)


— British press ‘heavily skewed to Brexit:’ The Leave camp may be trailing in the polls, but that’s not because of a lack of supportive coverage in Britain’s partisan press. News coverage of the European Union referendum across Britain’s leading newspapers has been “heavily skewed in favor of Brexit” in the first two months of the campaign, according to research published Monday. Researchers at Oxford University’s Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. http://politi.co/25hIlYB (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=52d16ddf9c&e=2af8d0786d)

DCon
29-05-2016, 10:46 AM
The knives are being sharpened



Tory MPs have broken ranks to brand David Cameron a 'liar' and insisted he will have to quit Downing Street even if he wins the EU referendum.

Backbencher Nadine Dorries said her colleagues no longer 'trusted' the Prime Minister or Chancellor George Osborne after their 'repeated lies' during the campaign so far.






http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3614903/Cameron-Tory-MP-says-PM-survive-wins-EU-referendum-raises-prospect-snap-general-election-Autumn.html

pluralist
29-05-2016, 08:49 PM
If I may be forgiven for linking to another forum, jmc's analysis as per link below is interesting. What do posters here make of his view?

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=65356&start=150

pluralist
30-05-2016, 12:51 AM
Frank Furedi

The EU elite is defined by its fear of popular sovereignty.


http://www.spiked-online.com/spiked-review/article/betraying-europes-democratic-legacy/18386#.V0uEUeTn9Pg

Donal Og
30-05-2016, 05:37 PM
http://www.spiked-online.com/spiked-review/article/betraying-europes-democratic-legacy/18386#.V0uEUeTn9Pg

Hard to know what Furedi really thinks.He was a leader in the Revolutionary Communist Party back in the old days. This tiny group probably had about 150 members at one time. Yet it was very active indeed and produced both a newspaper and a very glossy magazine - Living Marxism. The name was changed to just LM in the 90s.Now he seems to be on the libertarian right more? I think some people just have to be extremists of one sort or another.Which is the kindest view I can take of the old RCP heads.

TotalMayhem
30-05-2016, 06:12 PM
http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9501/47KkyS.jpg

C. Flower
30-05-2016, 06:49 PM
Hard to know what Furedi really thinks.He was a leader in the Revolutionary Communist Party back in the old days. This tiny group probably had about 150 members at one time. Yet it was very active indeed and produced both a newspaper and a very glossy magazine - Living Marxism. The name was changed to just LM in the 90s.Now he seems to be on the libertarian right more? I think some people just have to be extremists of one sort or another.Which is the kindest view I can take of the old RCP heads.

I assume that the comments on that site are not moderated as there is one of the most virulently overt race hate posts I've ever seen on line there.

riposte
30-05-2016, 07:57 PM
http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9501/47kkys.jpg

http://www.politicalworld.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=1121&d=1464638395


like

TotalMayhem
30-05-2016, 08:12 PM
like

This is so like you... :p

Dr. FIVE
31-05-2016, 03:26 PM
All the worst people and organisations in Ireland are shitting the bed about brexit.

Is there actually any downside for the rest of us beyond what the banks, farmers and gombeen class are worried about?

jmcc
31-05-2016, 03:59 PM
http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9501/47KkyS.jpgThe poster for Tommy and Turkish? :) (For those who don't get the movie "Snatch" reference.)

Regards...jmcc

Donal Og
03-06-2016, 08:27 AM
I assume that the comments on that site are not moderated as there is one of the most virulently overt race hate posts I've ever seen on line there.

Spiked? It is run by Furedi and Brendan O Neill of course. Claire Fox and Mick Hume contribute too.All ex RCP. Complaints about sexism, racism et al , are all bogus and just bourgeois attacks on the white male working class. If I understand them correctly.Professional contrarians but very skilled in debate like so many old commie academics.

Donal Og
03-06-2016, 08:33 AM
PS...I see poor old Saint Bob aka Roger Irrelevant has come to the aid of his obliging mate Cameron. Doubt he will have much sway with Irish voters in the UK.

Count Bobulescu
04-06-2016, 09:15 PM
A commentator on US TV compared the Brexit attitude as like quitting your job, and then expecting to get it back, minus all the nasty bits, - pure fantasy

DCon
05-06-2016, 03:46 AM
FT on doomsday




If Britain votes to leave, a sterling sell-off is a safe bet.
Some analysts think the pound could lose as much as a third of its value against the dollar because of worries that leaving the EU will reduce capital inflows, increase the current account deficit and provoke a recession.






http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/a75fc5ae-16c7-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d.html#axzz4AfmhHSrB

DCon
05-06-2016, 05:01 AM
Bertie and Phil in the Guardian warning about the Border

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/bertie-ahern-uk-reimpose-irish-border-after-brexit-eu-northern-ireland?CMP=share_btn_tw



He said there were fears among the Irish political classes in Dublin about “Dundalk becoming the new Calais”.




http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/09/brexit-irish-border-new-calais-eu-commissioner-phil-hogan

Saoirse go Deo
05-06-2016, 08:55 AM
Dundalk has long been El Paso!

DCon
05-06-2016, 09:48 AM
Hogan forgetting that Ireland is not part of Schengen of course

How quaint

Hiding Behind A Poster
05-06-2016, 07:13 PM
http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9501/47KkyS.jpg

Shows the extent to which the Vote Leave campaign are playing on ignorance and xenophobia.

DCon
06-06-2016, 05:08 PM
Osborne singing from the same hymn book as Phil and Bertie

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/06/george-osborne-brexit-northern-ireland-economic-shock-hardened-border

riposte
06-06-2016, 07:11 PM
Shows the extent to which the Vote Leave campaign are playing on ignorance and xenophobia.

The Remainians don't like it up em.

Count Bobulescu
07-06-2016, 01:27 AM
Breaking! Poll has found that 1 in 3 Brexit supporters are as dense as the other two

pluralist
07-06-2016, 01:09 PM
Shows the extent to which the Vote Leave campaign are playing on ignorance and xenophobia.

I would take that particular poster as being largely tongue-in-cheek, without disputing there is a fair amount of xenophobia on the Vote Leave side.

jmcc
07-06-2016, 08:52 PM
Shows the extent to which the Vote Leave campaign are playing on ignorance and xenophobia.Unsurprisingly for an Irish Unionist, you just don't get British humour even though it was explained to you that it is a cultural reference. :)

Regards...jmcc

pluralist
07-06-2016, 10:58 PM
Unsurprisingly for an Irish Unionist, you just don't get British humour even though it was explained to you that it is a cultural reference. :)

Regards...jmcc

Tut tut.

DCon
08-06-2016, 10:26 AM
problems with voter registrations



525,000 people yesterday tried to register to vote in the EU referendum on the last day causing the government website to crash producing the message "504 Gateway Time-out" instead of the online registration form.

The last minute rush came as campaigners from both sides urged those not registered to do so before last night's deadline.

A government source has told the BBC they are looking at whether it would be "practical and legal" to find a way of extending the deadline after the midnight cut off.


http://news.forexlive.com/!/calls-for-brexit-vote-registration-extension-as-thousands-get-locked-out-of-website-20160608

pluralist
08-06-2016, 09:37 PM
Squeaky bum time, as they say in the soccer world.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum

C. Flower
08-06-2016, 10:40 PM
How many wages is 'Europe' paying in the UK ?


To be honest with you, I am so sick of all this Brexit rubbish. If David Cameron took his responsibilities as this country's Prime Minister seriously, he would never have let himself be bullied by Nigel Farage into holding a referendum which no voter knows enough about to make a really informed choice. Can't believe a word any politician says, which kind of makes Jeremy Corbyn quite appealing as he doesn't say much.

David Cameron (it seems to me) has fallen into the trap of many modern managers - he wants to be liked so tries to please everyone, and doesn't have the bottle to take big decisions himself. If he did, we could at least respect him as a man of principle, whatever we might think of him otherwise.

First rule of management - you get the pay packet to do the job, not to be liked by those you manage, so man up.

I will say, with my hand on my heart, that I can make no sense of the rafts of figures being tossed around by every political Tom, Dick and Harry you care to name.

However, Europe has funded most of my recent working life (for about the past twenty five years, on and off) and is still funding me now. So purely on the grounds of self interest, I'll be voting to remain in Europe and keep my job.

So there.

People will vote according to perceived self interest.

riposte
08-06-2016, 11:01 PM
People will vote according to perceived self interest.

In every country ....on every continent........... wherever people were given a vote......... they have universally voted contrary to their own interests.

pluralist
08-06-2016, 11:18 PM
In every country ....on every continent........... wherever people were given a vote......... they have universally voted contrary to their own interests.

I would find it quite amusing if the Irish voters in the UK rejected the patronising, condescending, heavily funded campaign from the likes of IBEC/Zanu FF/FG/Labour and heartily voted for Britain's independence.

Head's with Remain, heart's with Brexit, shall we say.

pluralist
08-06-2016, 11:21 PM
How many wages is 'Europe' paying in the UK ?



People will vote according to perceived self interest.

Remember Albert's 8 billion? ;)

You probably don't, now that I think of it. :p

riposte
08-06-2016, 11:58 PM
[QUOTE=pluralist;452728]I would find it quite amusing if the Irish voters in the UK rejected the patronising, condescending, heavily funded campaign from the likes of IBEC/Zanu FF/FG/Labour and heartily voted for Britain's independence. [QUOTE]

You'd be surprised at how fast Irish people who go to live and work in England become little Englanders ........ it has happened to several members of my own family.

[QUOTE=pluralist;452728]
Head's with Remain, heart's with Brexit, shall we say.[QUOTE]

Nationality and Sovereignty are emotional issues.

Count Bobulescu
09-06-2016, 02:22 PM
France will not go quietly................


France's plan for a bloody Brexit


-- By Nicholas Vinocur and Tara Palmeri
6/8/16, 5:10 PM CET
PARIS — France is not ready to let Britain get away from the European Union scot-free.

If the U.K. votes to leave on June 23, Paris will push to ensure that consequences are felt swiftly and severely to avoid emboldening anti-EU forces elsewhere in the bloc, senior EU diplomatic sources said.

France’s tough stance foreshadows major difficulties for London in the event of Brexit, as a core EU member tries to assert its influence in a reconfigured bloc and sway other countries against adopting an easygoing attitude toward Britain. Some of those countries, such as Germany, are more inclined to favor a softer approach.

The French push is focused on convincing the remaining EU countries to unwind all treaties and agreements binding the U.K. to the bloc quickly, so the divorce is sealed by withdrawing subsidies, re-evaluating trade relationships sector-by-sector, denying British supervisory bodies EU recognition in areas like financial services, and establishing new immigration rules, to name just a few levers, the sources said.

“If we say you are outside the EU but can keep all of the advantages, access to the single market without any solidarity, it’s a terrible message for the rest of the EU,” said a senior EU diplomat who asked not to be named due to the non-public nature of discussions. “[A painless Brexit] is impossible if we want to keep the rest of the EU present.”

The need to send a message is all the more pressing for the French political elite with the anti-EU National Front positioned to make a strong showing in the country’s 2017 presidential election. France would not be acting out of spite, officials said, and has no interest in setting off a tit-for-tat war of punitive measures.

But as a core EU member, sources said it had a responsibility to strengthen the bloc and deprive anti-EU parties — not just the FN but also the likes of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom in the Netherlands — of a chance to use Britain as a shining example of what life can be after the European Union.

“We should avoid a punitive logic,” said Elisabeth Guigou, Socialist head of the foreign affairs committee in France’s lower house National Assembly. “But our president was right when he said that Brexit will have serious consequences…. We will need to fight the centrifugal [political] forces, to show that we can draw conclusions from Britain’s decision.”

She added: “Britain will have to exit from all treaties with the EU. I think that process should go as quickly as possible, and it must not dominate the European Union’s whole agenda.”

Europe’s basic treaty foresees a maximum of two years of negotiations — led by the Commission, but on terms decided by the remaining 27 EU countries — before Brexit becomes a fact. Britain would retain full membership rights in the European Union until those negotiations are concluded.

But that process can be extended if all 27 other EU countries agree to it — or potentially accelerated, if they can rapidly reach common positions on the terms of a new relationship with Britain. France, though it carries a lot of weight in discussions affecting the EU treaties, won’t be the only country with strong views on how Britain should be dealt with during the divorce proceedings; Germany, the bloc’s most powerful member, has an interest in keeping a strong relationship with the U.K., and other regional blocs of countries will also have a say.

But diplomats said there will be clear push to get the Brexit process done quickly if Britain votes to leave.

Stumbling blocks

There are some areas in which France is unlikely to press for tough terms. For example, imposing restrictions on visa or travel rights for some 200,000 Brits who live in France (of which 69,000 are pensioners) could backfire. France has some 160,000 citizens living in Britain, who could be targeted in turn by visa restrictions on foreign travelers and workers.

“[The French] don’t want to create an EU economic cold war,” said Petros Fassoulas, secretary general of European Movement International, a leading pro-EU group in Brussels.

However, there are other ways of demonstrating that withdrawal from the EU can lead to painful payback. One is to restrict the “passporting” of financial services, which allows foreign-owned companies to do business with the EU via offices located in Britain. The principle works because the EU recognizes the authority of British supervisory bodies.

But in the event of Brexit, the EU may no longer recognize that authority, which could push firms to leave Britain and establish bases inside the European Union.

“I would be very tough [on this point],” said Sylvie Goulard, a French MEP who sits on the committee for economic and monetary affairs. “I see no reason to give passporting to a country that decides in a sovereign way to leave the EU…. The day the U.K. leaves … you cannot consider the British supervising authority as an authority of the EU.”

A similar logic would apply for British clearinghouses, or financial institutions that act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers. Currently, Britain-based clearinghouses are supervised by the Bank of England, but comply with EU regulations. If Britain left the EU, member countries would re-evaluate whether they recognize clearinghouses such as LCH.Clearnet, and may push to force all clearing houses to be based inside the EU — as the European Central Bank has already suggested should be the case.

On trade, EU countries would have to hammer out the terms of a new relationship with Britain — a process that would involve negotiations via the European Commission, and difficult debates in the Parliament and Council. Each country would seek an advantage for its own commercial interests against British competition, with France ready to lobby hard for agriculture.

Paris and other EU capitals hope that Britain would adopt Norway’s model of trade with the union, under which it accepts all EU regulations including the free movement of workers in exchange for access to the single market.

But Michael Gove, the U.K.’s Euroskeptic secretary of state for justice, has said that Britain would no longer seek access to the single market as such. Instead, it would try to renegotiate the terms of its relationship along the lines of existing deals between the EU and outsider states like Switzerland, Bosnia, Serbia, Albania — all of which have varying levels of closeness with the bloc.

If Britain opts for restrictive terms, such as denying free movement of workers, Paris and other capitals will push for a narrower relationship, possibly including customs checks for all British products entering the bloc.

Cooling effect

As for British workers employed in the European Union, they could face much less favorable conditions if Britain rejects free movement of workers.

For example, a U.K. citizen living in France, or any other EU state, would not have automatic access to social services like public health care and public pensions, because those rights are not extended to citizens of non-EU nations.

There are also ways of affecting the quality of life for U.K. citizens living in EU countries, where many choose to retire, such as Spain or the south of France.

Unless laws on civil rights are grandfathered in to the future relationship with the U.K., British citizens would lack consumer protections, access to justice and redress when they are traveling or living abroad. Non-EU citizens would not be entitled to such rights, and would find it more difficult to sue in EU courts, sources said.

“People underestimate the rights of the EU citizen,” said the senior EU diplomat. “You may have to go through diplomatic channels to defend your rights [if the U.K. leaves the EU].”

Brexit could also complicate judicial cooperation between Britain and EU nations. After a withdrawal, British citizens would no longer enjoy the right to automatic extradition back to their home country, as they do now.

When it comes to investment, Brexit could also have a major cooling effect. Currently, France is the second biggest investor in the U.K. behind the United States with 124 projects in 2015, accounting for the creation of 8,198 jobs, according to the British government. But French investors could quickly re-evaluate future involvement in the event of Brexit.

“Our major investors are very involved in Britain,” said Guigou. “I hope that Hinkley Point [a nuclear power plant project being led by France’s EDF in Britain] gets completed. But when it comes to other projects, French investors will look twice.”

Guigou also said a Britain-less EU would even try to take business away from the City of London financial district. “I can tell you there is already intense thinking about creating a financial hub on the continent,” she said.

Regardless of how Britain votes, Paris sees an interest in consolidating the European Union and ensuring that the bloc becomes more attractive for investors, and for its own citizens.

“We will need to make sure that at the political level, at the Commission and Council, we make proposals for the future of the European Union,” said Guigou. “Europe cannot continue as it’s going at the moment. Things need to change so that citizens recognize themselves in the project once again.”


To view online: France’s plan for a bloody Brexit – POLITICO (http://www.politico.eu/pro/france-plan-for-a-bloody-brexit-eu-referendum-consequences-europe-hollande-david-cameron/)

Count Bobulescu
09-06-2016, 02:27 PM
Dutch worried too...........


Brexit would hit the Dutch economy hard: report


-- By Hortense Goulard
6/9/16, 9:10 AM CET
A Brexit would have a “severe” impact on the Dutch economy, because it is linked to the U.K. more than to the rest of the EU, according to a report by a Dutch public think-tank published Thursday.

In total, the Netherlands stands to lose up to €10 billion if Brits vote to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum, or 1.2 percent of the Dutch GDP by 2030, said the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).

Losses for the Netherlands would be highest if the U.K. and the EU do not strike a free trade agreement, but decide to trade within the frame of the World Trade Organization, according to the report.

“When we also account for the potential impact of trade‐induced innovation, the costs for the Netherlands, in the WTO scenario, will increase to 2% of GDP or around 1000 euros per person,” the report states.

Other countries that will suffer highest GDP losses include Ireland, Belgium and Luxembourg, the report says: “There is a relatively large amount of trade between these countries and the UK, and they will be hit the hardest by the trade restrictions that would follow a Brexit.”

Since the Dutch economy is deeply intertwined with the British one, the Netherlands would have an interest in negotiating a free trade agreement with the U.K. to reduce trade barriers and lower the cost of Britain’s break up with the Union.

On the other end, countries in Southern and Eastern Europe will have less interest in safeguarding trade with the U.K., and could decide that the precedent if Britain preserves most of its trade with the EU would be too dangerous.

“Compared with the Netherlands, Ireland or Belgium, these countries would benefit the least from a new free trade agreement,” the report states, adding: “It is conceivable that countries with a large economic interest in such a new agreement with the U.K. will not be able to muster the support of all EU member states.”

But should the 27 remaining EU members set high trade barriers to punish the U.K. for leaving the EU and warn others not to follow Britain’s departure, the Dutch economy would be among the first to suffer, according to the report.




To view online: Brexit would hit the Dutch economy hard: report – POLITICO (http://www.politico.eu/pro/report-says-brexit-would-hit-dutch-economy-hard-eu-referendum-ten-billion-euros-leave-remain/)

C. Flower
09-06-2016, 03:27 PM
FIrst France doesn't want the Brits in, then doesn't want them out.

Round and round it goes...

Count Bobulescu
09-06-2016, 04:02 PM
FIrst France doesn't want the Brits in, then doesn't want them out.

Round and round it goes...
Think the 1960's UK rejection was more a deGaulle personal issue, than a broader French one. He wasn't "keen" on UK/US generally.After deGaulle left office his protege Pompidou quickly relented.

pluralist
09-06-2016, 05:24 PM
Odds coming back to Remain.

pluralist
09-06-2016, 07:40 PM
Remember Albert's 8 billion? ;)

You probably don't, now that I think of it. :p

^ To clarify, I didn't mean this as a dig at CF, in general I have found most Irish people seem to have forgotten Maastricht Referendum in 1992 and the lead up to it.

C. Flower
10-06-2016, 09:45 AM
^ To clarify, I didn't mean this as a dig at CF, in general I have found most Irish people seem to have forgotten Maastricht Referendum in 1992 and the lead up to it.

Do remind us.

Maastricht was the vote, was it not, that cemented us into an "ever closer union" most intractably and abandoned national sovereignty ?

Between that, and the GFA, Albert was a Great Enabler.

Richardbouvet
10-06-2016, 01:21 PM
I think that if campaigners in the 70s and 80s had highlighed the "ever closer union" phrase more, it might have woken voters up a little.

By the 90s the damage was done. By then we had a political class for whom the EU could do no wrong, and that is still the prevailing establishment viewpoint.

Certainly if Brexit happens (though I think the chance of that is less than 50%) then there will be a case for Ireland leaving the EU, not least in order to keep the border open.

Count Bobulescu
10-06-2016, 02:45 PM
UK trade deficit falls after record rise in exports: As a present for George Osborne ahead of the EU referendum, new figures show that British exports in the last year grew mainly due to trading with the EU, with a major increase of 10.3 percent, while non EU-exports rose only by 1.9 percent. It also eases concerns after last month’s figures showed Britain’s trade deficit with other EU countries was running at a record high. The Guardian: http://bit.ly/1sxtCr9 (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=368626e5d2&e=2af8d0786d)


— Blair and Major: Brexit could threaten peace in Northern Ireland: Former British Prime Ministers John Major and Tony Blair warned that a Brexit might fracture the U.K., as Britain’s peace settlement with Northern Ireland could be threatened if they leave the EU. They added that leaving would likely lead to a second Scottish referendum. POLITICO: http://politi.co/1TXFh9A (http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=90804d8ad4&e=2af8d0786d)


— Tory MP switches sides: Senior Tory MP Sarah Wollaston renounced her support for the Leave campaign, saying she no longer feels “comfortable” campaigning for a Brexit. The head of the U.K. House of Commons health committee cited her main concern with the campaign is a claim that a Brexit would allow the U.K. to spend an additional £350 million per week on the National Health Service, which she says “simply isn’t true.” More on POLITICO: http://politi.co/1ZBS8ls (http://politico.us8.list-manage1.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=9cbcee1906&e=2af8d0786d)


— Think tank says Brexit would hit poorer families hardest: A report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that low-income households would be disproportionately affected by a Brexit, estimating that in a worst-case scenario, the households could receive £5,500 less per year in tax credits and benefit payments in 2020. The estimates assume that welfare spending would be slashed to adjust to the new economic climate. Full report: http://bit.ly/21aamuJ (http://politico.us8.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=57f663552e&e=2af8d0786d)


— Recruiters say Brexit has already caused job losses: In a poll, recruiter Randstad U.K. found that 17 percent of 340 professionals polled had already frozen hiring, with 25 percent turning to short-term contracts. While firms such as CBI estimated that a Brexit could cost a million jobs, Dean of the London Business School Andrew Likierman said that the recruiting slowdown “is having an impact right now.” The Independent: http://ind.pn/25Nqqtg (http://politico.us8.list-manage.com/track/click?u=e26c1a1c392386a968d02fdbc&id=0a7a8a7a65&e=2af8d0786d)

pluralist
10-06-2016, 04:51 PM
Do remind us.

Maastricht was the vote, was it not, that cemented us into an "ever closer union" most intractably and abandoned national sovereignty ?

Between that, and the GFA, Albert was a Great Enabler.

I am finding surprisingly little on the net from a quick search, but here is a link to some contemporaneous Dail debates:

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail1992040800039?opendocument

DCon
10-06-2016, 06:12 PM
Oh no. Tony Blair will be upset



ive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

Donal Og
11-06-2016, 12:46 PM
Oh no. Tony Blair will be upset



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

If this happens and the UK becomes a lab for the creative destruction of Gove and IDS ....I wonder if a red blooded Labour party in England would be one result? Assuming the Scots vote the other way I leave them out of a putative leftwing labour resurgence. A lot of Brexiters have a fantasy about dear old Blighty morphing into an Atlantic Singapore. Perhaps they really mean Lahnden though.

DCon
11-06-2016, 05:15 PM
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/spiegel.jpg

C. Flower
11-06-2016, 07:04 PM
I am finding surprisingly little on the net from a quick search, but here is a link to some contemporaneous Dail debates:

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail1992040800039?opendocument

Excellent find, thanks.

It runs down the main elements of the Treaty pretty well - and the way that the carrot of cash was waved in front of the cash starved electorate. Single currency - but also this


Other important aspects of the new Treaty are the provisions for closer co-operation in the fields of justice and home affairs; and the provisions in relation to a Common Foreign and Security Policy which established systematic co-operation between member states in the conduct of foreign policy and joint action in certain areas where member states have important interests in common.

Critics of this were mocked over the notion of "conscription into an EU army".

We have been conscripted into a creeping EU foreign policy that is rippling outwards across the Med and further, no signs of it stopping.

The army is being worked up to, via Battlegroups and "increased interoperativability".

And so, a new would-be Imperial power is born.

The US of course don't like this and will pull (and have pulled) the rug in any way they can. The EU armed effort is supposed (from Obama's point of view) to be solely an adjunct to the US forces.

C. Flower
11-06-2016, 08:29 PM
An anti-Marxist run down of Marxist groups' lines on a Brexit.

Well worth reading. However what strikes me is the appalling passivity of the left. There seems to be a general acceptance that the agenda is capitalims in the EU or capitalism in Britain.


A spectre is haunting communism – the spectre of Europe. Lenin would have surely thought the class divide which currently spans UK politics to hold enormous promise. When it comes (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/) to our membership of the European Union, the haves are for In and the have-nots are for Out. Those with mortgages and university degrees, those in the managerial and administrative classes, are for In. Skilled and unskilled workers, and the unemployed, are for Out.

Eventually this class-based analysis departs from its admirable simplicity. Most Leavers clearly do not see Brexit as a means of enriching themselves, more as a blow to a system which has failed to enrich them. The proportion of the working class which truly views Brexit as a project of national economic reinvention is no doubt painfully slender. In versus Out is therefore a case of self-interest versus the high spirits of those who have nothing to lose.
Scotland is different, with 63% (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/) of decided voters wanting to Remain. But this is all tribalism and identity politics. Whilst it still crazed by the fetish of nationalism, there will be no intelligible economic rationale to anything in Scotland.
Contemporary Marxist thought presents a selection box of interesting and sometimes novel ideas about the EU. Yet the flavours mingle disconcertingly. Where one interpretation is persuasive, it usually has the effect of invalidating another Marxist interpretation. Confusion thus reigns over the entire ideology and, to the average voter, Marxism in 2016 cannot be brimming with usefulness.
Let’s begin with the Communist Party of Britain (Marxist–Leninist), which is in tremendous health these days, having announced (http://www.cpbml.org.uk/leave) that, “Leave! We’re backing Brexit.” The CPB (M-L) is electrified by “the chance to vote to leave the European Union, reclaim sovereignty over Britain and deliver a hammer blow to the dictatorial ambitions of the deeply undemocratic EU.” This party was formerly (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Britain_%28Marxist%E2%80%93Leni nist%29) quite comfortable with Maoism and the regime of Enver Hoxha, so its inability to stomach the “dictatorial ambitions” of the EU shows how far the EU must have gone. It is much the same story with the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist), which differs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Great_Britain_%28Marxist%E2%80% 93Leninist%29) from the previous party in maintaining that Britain is “Great” and being openly Stalinist. The CPGB (M-L) insists (http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=proletarian&subName=display&art=1190) that, “British Workers Need A Brexit.”
The CPB (M-L) and the CPGB (M-L) both believe that smashing the EU to smithereens is preferable to leaving in place an apparatus which the workers could one day seize control of. The CPGB (M-L)’s position is the less remarkable of the two, so let’s deal with this first. For them, leaving the EU would not make the workers richer – they admit, with grim relish of a party which had once (http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/12/kim-jong-comrade-communist) paid tribute to Kim Jong Il, that “Life may become more difficult for the British proletariat, for a time.” No, the key benefit of Brexit would be to instead reduce the power, or even just frustrate the will, of the exploiting classes. Brexit has been here adopted as an anti-imperialist manoeuvre: “Britain outside the EU would be less able to bully other countries, and the EU’s ability to do so would also be considerably weakened. US imperialism, too, would be weakened by the weakening of its EU ally.”
Whereas the CPGB (M-L) remains predictably silent about democracy, the CPB (M-L) at least grants the workers a place in the story. The CPB (M-L) looks (http://www.cpbml.org.uk/news/no-advance-without-marxism) to the UK’s working class to arrest the growth of a European superstate which is “built in the interests of capitalism.” Intriguingly, such a line of thought requires these Communists to soon desert many of the Left’s traditional battlegrounds, or to even disown what many would judge to be the Left’s achievements. The CPB (M-L) opposes mass immigration, multiculturalism and devolution because all of them, in their opinion, weaken working class unity. They are unapologetic (http://www.workers.org.uk/features/feat_1207/british.html) in demanding “British Jobs for British Workers,” even though this slogan was originally used by the National Front during the 1970s.
Indeed, the more that you study the CPB (M-L), the harder it becomes to identify any practical difference between this party and nostalgic organisations on the right or far right. All of them think that they can mutter a spell which will return us intact to the 1950s, when manufacturing had not yet wound down, when everyone knew their place and people were pompous about being working class. For the CPB (M-L), this has all the appeal of mass workforces being able to keep wages high by constantly striking. For UKIP, the same workers would play cricket on the village green, drink real ale in family-owned pubs, and queue proudly for their stamps in the state-run post offices.
So should Marxists refuse to combine with the right, even if their analysis of the EU is correct, due to the nostalgia and xenophobia of parties such as UKIP? This is the position of Alan Thornett, who is honestly repulsed by the yuckiness of the Brexiteers. He admits (http://socialistresistance.org/7499/what-position-should-the-left-take-on-the-eu-referendum) to “something of a dilemma for those on the left (like ourselves) who see the EU as a reactionary institution… but have no wish to be associated with the right in any form it might take.” Thornett concludes that, “the right way to vote in this referendum will be Yes .”
The same argument is waged in greater detail and depth by the Republican Communist Network’s Allan Armstrong. Yes, I have been thinking the same – the title is surely redundant. How many Monarchical Communists have there ever been? Presumably enough to justify the RCN’s name. The lynchpin of Armstrong’s analysis is his interpretation (http://republicancommunist.org/blog/2016/04/12/a-political-comparison-between-the-2012-14-scottish-independence-referendum-and-the-2016-eu-referendum-campaign/) of the 2014 Yes campaign as an anti-imperialist movement:

The demand for Scottish independence came out of a longstanding and broadly-based democratic campaign for greater national self-determination. The pro-independence wing of this has been supported by the constitutional nationalists of the SNP, the majority of Scottish Greens, and by the majority of the Left in Scotland, marked at its highest point in 2003 by the presence of 6 SSP MSPs in Holyrood.
By contrast, Armstrong can detect within Brexit the revenge of British imperialism:

…the Right pull on the 2016 ‘Brexit’ campaign is explained by its longstanding origins amongst the reactionary Tory Right and more recently the Right populist UKIP. Their concern has been the decline of ‘Britain’ as an imperial power, and the need to buttress a reactionary British identity.
There are obvious dangers ahead with this assessment and the most obvious is its democratic implications. The Scottish referendum was not the climax of a long popular struggle for “greater national self-determination.” It was instead the surprise outcome of an election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011) in which barely fifty per cent of the voters had turned out. You’ll note that none of the Scottish parties which Armstrong cites are, with the exception of the SNP, household names, even in Scotland. Down south, on the other hand, millions of former Labour voters have swung over en masse to UKIP or at least to a stern discontent with the EU. Almost four million people voted for UKIP in the last general election, and this even after the winning Tory party had stolen UKIP’s flagship policy of holding an EU referendum.
For Armstrong, this democratic pressure only ever amounts to foolish support for the “anti-democratic sovereignty of the UK state.” If a majority in Scotland votes to stay in the EU, and a majority in England outweighs this, then this is, for him, anti-democratic. He will not credit English and Scots alike with being indistinguishable English-speaking peoples, because this would reduce the Scots to a contrary minority which had lost out fairly in a democratic process. Armstrong has duly attributed a mysterious tribal purity to the Scots, a juju which can be never dissolved within the shared language and media of the “imperialist” Union. Against this, any democratic majority down south, however monumental, will be always illegitimate.
Armstrong distrusts the English masses for their jingoism; for other Marxists, the whole working class is now the lumpenproletariat. Armstrong thinks that Brexit “could be helping to open the door to a ‘carnival of reaction’.” James Connolly’s phrase had been used previously by Thornett back in June 2015, when he predicted that, “We can say with confidence when it comes to the referendum campaign itself that it will reach new heights (or plumb new depths) in terms of xenophobia, nationalism and racism… It will be a carnival of reaction.” Happily, Thornett’s prediction has turned out to be completely wrong. The referendum has not been characterised by rampaging racism, with Nigel Farage, one of the most anti-immigrant Brexiteers, being notably marginalised (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499) from the official campaign. One only hopes that James Marshall, for the Labour Party Marxists, is peering into the same defective crystal ball as Thornett when he foresees (http://labourpartymarxists.org.uk/the-in-out-kabuki-dance/) that, “Backing from big business, international institutions, celebrity endorsements … and fear of the unknown will swing popular opinion.”
There are three different Marxist arguments against siding with the Brexiteers. The first is that the UK state is irredeemable and that it can be never put to any progressive use. The second is more optimistic about the state’s prospects, but it judges 2016 to be marked by the wrong historical conditions. The third ignores the state and warns that Brexit will have a negative impact upon capitalism, a system which the working class presumably wishes to inherit intact.
To take the first first, Armstrong reasons (http://republicancommunist.org/blog/tag/britain-stronger-in-europe/) that, “The British ruling class and its UK government representatives have never initiated and rarely supported any measure to democratise the EU. They are happiest with intra-ruling class deals, and corporate lobbying, conducted as far from public scrutiny as possible.” The trouble which Armstrong soon runs into is that the British ruling class is, as a class, on the Remain side, the same side which Armstrong is now signing up to.


Paul Mason, not a Marxist exactly but an energetic left-wing thinker, took up the second argument in yesterday’s Guardian. He argues (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/16/brexit-eu-referendum-boris-johnson-greece-tory) that, “even for those who support the leftwing case for Brexit, it is sensible to argue: not now… I have refused to campaign for Brexit, and may even abstain on the day.” Mason complains that right-wingers “stand ready to seize control of the Tory party and turn Britain into a neoliberal fantasy island” rather than “leaving the economics to the outcome of a subsequent election.” You might think that Boris and his chums have left the economics of Brexit to a subsequent election, and to every election after that one, simply by virtue of not being a permanent feature of the UK state. Nonetheless, Brexit would be more to Mason’s taste if it resulted from the conflict between a nationalising Labour party and a prohibitive EU (as with Russia, this revolution has occurred in the wrong country, namely Greece). We leave him waiting for these circumstances to one day align.
The third argument is put very well by the Marxist economic Michael Roberts. He observes (https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2016/03/24/brexit-stay-or-leave/) that, “the key interest of British capital is to preserve its hegemonic global position in financial services – and with the UK outside the EU that could come under threat.” He judges the chances of any counter-balancing “sharp increase in productivity, investment and trade with the rest of the world” after Brexit to be “unlikely.” His overall findings are that Brexit would “probably be marginally bad for British capital and there would be little or no gain for British Labour.”
Leadership is always preferable to scampering after the heels of the masses, but none of these three arguments divulge a viable democratic alternative to Brexit. For Roberts, sovereignty, and thus democratic sovereignty, is a delusion, or “a relative concept in modern imperialism.” Armstrong airily daubs the image of “a united Europe as a federal social, secular and democratic republic.” The outline of a progressive Europe is also available (https://irishmarxism.net/2016/02/20/what-to-do-about-the-european-referendum/) on the Irish Marxist’s blog:
For those who see the advancement of socialism coming not from the actions of the capitalist state, a left government sitting on top of it or not, the benefit for the conditions of struggle provided by the EU is that it much more quickly puts the question of international workers unity to the fore and in doing so pushes against the nationalist poison that has so hobbled and disabled the working class of every country. In this respect we are in favour of more, not less, European integration and in favour of fighting for reforms within this process of integration that strengthen the working class: such as levelling up the terms and conditions of workers and undermining the race to the bottom.
The danger of this appraisal is that it gives the EU far more of an imperialist remit than it has ever possessed naturally. For an “international” organisation, an awful lot of continents and countries are excluded from the EU, and so the Irish Marxist’s logic would lead to Africa and Asia being opened up to supervision from Brussels. You might as well bring back the British Empire! There is also a fatal vagueness about who precisely is “fighting” for the desired “reforms.”
The administration certainly isn’t, as is evidenced by the austerity which is an inevitable stage of the integration process. Take, as the readiest example of this, the economic pressure upon Europe’s peripheral nations to concede the sovereignty to Brussels which will make the Euro finally function as a currency. Neither can Europe’s working class be relied upon as the progressive factor. For a start there isn’t a single European working class, with a shared language, a shared media, a shared experience of capitalism, and a shared identity which can yet supplant the affinities of nationalism. And if this proletarian unity did stretch across the continent, then why should it primly end where the brown faces become a majority? Partly, one supposes, because this phenomenon of working class unity would get more stretched the further it extended.
What about the working class being “hobbled and disabled” by nationalism? Daniel Morley of Socialist Appeal urges (http://www.socialist.net/the-delusions-of-brexit.htm) that, “Marxists must oppose the EU, but for the very same reason we also oppose the British state, equally a tool of capitalism.” Is not, though, the British state equally the “tool” of an identifiable electorate?


Here, a Marxist of Morley’s mind might accuse me of naivety or of a reckless departure from the science. Classical Marxism is in essence a kind of economic determinism. The state, even a brave independent democracy, is only ever marooned when there is no favourable economic current beneath it. After Brexit, the UK’s workers could all vote for a party which promises to reduce VAT or to spend more on welfare, but these options are safely contained within the undisturbed system of international capitalism. Marxism generally wants the workers to have more power than this.


I am receptive to this analysis, but I remain troubled by where it appears to have led many Marxists. They are in such deep and treacherous water because the EU’s exact place in history is as a bulwark against mass-participatory democracy and the empowerment of ordinary people. The apparatus of the EU, the faux parliament, the obscure and sometimes secret committees, have not just sprouted up for no reason, like fungi on neglected soil. They exist to put a suitable distance between us and the decision-making. And in siding with the EU, even temporarily, or because the time isn’t right, or because the UK state is a miserable alternative, then the Marxists are siding [I]against the people. In this, they are not merely siding against a load of real, working class people who hold the EU in obvious contempt. They are siding against the power of the people as it is still authentically exercised through national democracies.


Lenin’s famous quip that the soldiers had “voted with their feet” may not have expressed a perfect appreciation of democratic propriety, but his slogan of “Peace! Bread! Land!” nonetheless conveys that to win power you need to give the workers what they want. So many Marxists today seem to be approving the suspension of democracy (what we already have – or had) on the grounds that some unspecified alternative will mysteriously arrange itself into being. Supposing, however, that this fails to happen.


Some of my readers on the right might point out that Marxism has been always anti-democratic. For them, its comfort with the EU can be thus explained away as familiarity. This disregards the quickness of Marxists such as Tariq Ali (http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/08/left-wing-brexit-remain-campaigners-turn-one-another/) and Richard Seymour (http://www.leninology.co.uk/2016/04/erratic-marxism-in-its-limits.html?m=0) to challenge the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis when he proposed a pan-European alliance of pro-EU socialist parties. It disregards figures such as Eric Chester (http://republicancommunist.org/blog/2016/03/24/debate-on-the-eu-referendum/), who argues for Brexit within the RCN’s internal debate on the EU.


But for me, the uninspiring role which Marxism is typically fulfilling in the EU referendum conforms to the broader counter-revolution against democracy which is dismayingly evident throughout much of the contemporary Left. The Labour and SNP shadow cabinet ministers who robotically profess to be “passionate” about restricting our democracy; those student unions for whom EU membership is now as trendy as Che Guevara.


And if I can hone in on quite why I have chosen to study Marxism, it is not only because the ideology’s representatives are strangely unwilling to lead massive numbers of yielding working people. It is due to their unusual coolness about crediting Brexit with the traditional language of revolution. Brexit would be admittedly a dreary bourgeois revolution, with the powers of an unelected bureaucracy being handed back to elected politicians. We have relapsed to 1776 and “no taxation without representation.” I have a Spanish friend who jokes that we have never had a revolution in the UK because it might jeopardise the provision of biscuits. The squeamishness about Brexit could be just this old, characteristically British fear of clattering the teacups too loudly. Most Brexiteers are anxious to assure the electorate that Brexit will be smooth, quiet, mild, and with no disruption to any aspect of public life. This is undeniably comical when a rigorous application of Marxism might render it profound.

DCon
12-06-2016, 05:00 PM
Yikes




The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.

It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.



http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679104/End-EU-rule-FINALLY-Leave-camp-take-19-POINT-lead-Britons-flock-Brexit

Count Bobulescu
12-06-2016, 06:04 PM
Cameron told Andrew Marr this morning: There'll be no Norwegian style free trade option.



David Cameron: 'I’ll pull UK out of the single market after Brexit'




-- By Tom McTague
6/12/16, 11:54 AM CET
David Cameron confirmed Sunday that he will pull Britain out of the single market if there is a vote to leave the European Union at the upcoming referendum.


The prime minister told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show that it would be impossible to copy the Norwegian model by remaining inside the trading bloc despite being outside the EU because that would mean accepting freedom of movement and trade rules made in Brussels.


He said the Brexit campaign had made it clear to voters that voting to leave also meant pulling out of the single market. The prime minister said he would accept the result as an “instruction” despite warning that leaving would be like planting a “bomb” under the British economy.


There have been reports that the House of Commons, whose MPs are overwhelmingly pro-Remain, could vote against pulling out of the single market in the event of a Brexit. MPs could claim they were accepting voters’ wishes to withdraw from the EU while protecting them from the economic consequences of leaving the trading area.


However, the Leave campaign has made it clear that in order to restrict immigration and strike trade deals with countries outside the EU, Britain would have to leave the single market.


The prime minister said: “What the British public will be voting for is to leave the EU and leave the single market.”


This would create a “decade of uncertainty,” he added, as the U.K. attempted to renegotiate a trade deal with the EU and countries around the world.


“Far from not banging on about Europe we’d be banging on about Europe for 10 years,” he said.


He said a vote for Brexit was a “DIY recession” that could leave the government with a £20-40 billion black hole in its finances.


“Who wants to vote for a shallow recession? This would be the first recession that would be self-inflicted,” he said and admitted the referendum was on a knife-edge. “Nobody knows what these polls are saying. It feels like a very lively and very full debate.”


Ukip leader Nigel Farage, interviewed before the prime minister on the show claimed there had been “a shift” in public opinion in the last fortnight.


“Collectively people are beginning to put two fingers up to the political class,” he said.


Farage also dismissed claims there could be another referendum if the vote was tight. “If the leave side were to narrowly lose, the chances of Parliament giving us another referendum is pretty slim.”


The Ukip leader also risked controversy after blithely dismissing the threat of a collapse in the value of the sterling in the event of an Out vote. Asked about the consequences of a weakened pound, the Ukip leader said: “So what?”


A lower pound was good for exports, he said.

C. Flower
12-06-2016, 08:21 PM
I would be voting, definitely, to leave, given that I've voted against every Treaty I had the opportunity of voting for, and that the EU is an anti-socialist/communist bloc that has illegalised socialism and building its capacities with the aim of becoming an Imperial power.

Greece and the Syriza government was surely enough of a demonstration of why the EU must be broken up ?

But Brexit on its own would solve absolutely nothing and will give credibility and traction to xenophobia in Britain.

The Express is pointing to the massive threat to the NHS from the EU and TTIP but is overlooking that the Tories are well able to ruin the NHS themselves, and to make adverse trade agreements with the US.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/666454/NHS-EU-killed-off-Brexit-Remain-Leave-referendum-Brussels-European-Uni

pluralist
13-06-2016, 04:13 AM
But Brexit on its own would solve absolutely nothing and will give credibility and traction to xenophobia in Britain.

How could you - or anyone - possibly know that?

DCon
13-06-2016, 09:30 PM
Tusk going mad



Asked about the possible impact of Britain quitting the EU, he said: “Not only economic implications will be negative for the UK, but first and foremost geopolitical.

“Do you know why these consequences are so dangerous? Because in the long-term they are completely unpredictable.

“As a historian, I am afraid this could in fact be the start of the process of destruction of not only the EU but also of the Western political civilisation.”




http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679337/EU-referendum-Donald-Tusk-Brexit-destruction-of-Western-political-civilisation

random new yorker
13-06-2016, 11:16 PM
@ DCon ..
Tusk going mad

Asked about the possible impact of Britain quitting the EU, he said: “Not only economic implications will be negative for the UK, but first and foremost geopolitical.

“Do you know why these consequences are so dangerous? Because in the long-term they are completely unpredictable.

“As a historian, I am afraid this could in fact be the start of the process of destruction of not only the EU but also of the Western political civilisation.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...l-civilisation


he is right in a certain way .. although i think he took a step too far in saying that it will destroy the Western political civilization ..

i think that the UK quitting the EU will leave gaping fractures in the system ...it will massively undermine the EU power in global affairs, no doubt, and if the Brits think they can do it alone (well) they may soon find out otherwise

it will indeed destroy what we have, it will be economically painful in the short term but it may be the only way out of the conundrum we find ourselves in

the EU IS UNDEMOCRATIC (it was designed as such) and it is set up to favor the founders Germany and France .. everyone else will be working for them .. so why keep it going?

pluralist
13-06-2016, 11:36 PM
the EU IS UNDEMOCRATIC (it was designed as such)

So of course is the US in some ways, a point made by the barrister/blogger Matthew Scott here, in his argument in favour of Remain:

http://barristerblogger.com/2016/06/13/must-remain-eu-peace-prosperity/

random new yorker
14-06-2016, 12:06 AM
So of course is the US in some ways, a point made by the barrister/blogger Matthew Scott here, in his argument in favour of Remain:

http://barristerblogger.com/2016/06/13/must-remain-eu-peace-prosperity/

i have no doubt that it will be an economic disaster as i have mentioned previously in this thread - and as the barrister claims

there's a reason Obama went to the UK and made clear statements w Cameron

it will be an econ disaster for everyone (it is what i was trying to say above) but at this point i am thinking that sometimes ye may have to completely demolish what we have so we can start anew

(you can fix the EU as is and make it work but it will NEVER be a fair system -- so why save it?)