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fluffybiscuits
14-01-2015, 09:47 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-general-election-2015-what-do-the-latest-polls-show-9974927.html

From twitter


National Poll (YouGov): 11 - 12 Jan:
LAB - 33% (+1)
CON - 32% ()
UKIP - 17% (-1)
GRN - 6% (-)
LDEM - 6% (-1)


Total and complete collapse of the Lib Dems. Just like the fall of Labour here, the Lib Dems are under pressure having been ridden up the hole by the Tories. Labour is the party on top, Ed Milliband is as charming as a brick. The Tories single handedly are continuing to destroy working class areas and UKIP with Nigel Farrage is whipping up a frenzy doing a line of Euroskepticism and anti immigration tactics. Greens are somewhat of an unknown package.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30808252


David Cameron and Ed Miliband have accused each other of "running scared" over election TV debates, as they clashed at Prime Minister's Questions.

Mr Miliband called the prime minister's refusal to take part unless the Green Party was involved a "pathetic excuse".

He said he would debate with "anyone invited by the broadcasters".

DCon
02-04-2015, 09:29 PM
latest poll



Tonight's Sun/YouGov poll: CON 37%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.

morticia
03-04-2015, 10:37 AM
Oh lord, looks like a UKIP Unionist Tory admin will be most likely. Lord help the North. Particularly if there's a Brexit. Although Greece being driven to insolvency will probably push us all off a cliff before then.

pluralist
03-04-2015, 06:27 PM
Oh lord, looks like a UKIP Unionist Tory admin will be most likely. Lord help the North. Particularly if there's a Brexit. Although Greece being driven to insolvency will probably push us all off a cliff before then.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that is a likely outcome. Remember, under the FPTP system, 12% doesn't translate into anything like that % of seats. I personally believe UKIP have peaked too early and will only finish up with two or three seats. Mark Reckless may struggle to retain the seat he won just a few months ago.

morticia
03-04-2015, 06:39 PM
I wouldn't necessarily assume that is a likely outcome. Remember, under the FPTP system, 12% doesn't translate into anything like that % of seats. I personally believe UKIP have peaked too early and will only finish up with two or three seats. Mark Reckless may struggle to retain the seat he won just a few months ago.

I think you're right re UKIP's likely no of seats (I'd go with 5-6, but not huge, agreed), but the Tories are ahead of Labour. I also doubt they'll get an overall majority. And the Unionists are probably guaranteed their usual number. And the Lib Dems are toast. Far more so than Labour here, given PRSTV.

Hence my prediction.

Apjp
04-04-2015, 03:13 PM
I think you're right re UKIP's likely no of seats (I'd go with 5-6, but not huge, agreed), but the Tories are ahead of Labour. I also doubt they'll get an overall majority. And the Unionists are probably guaranteed their usual number. And the Lib Dems are toast. Far more so than Labour here, given PRSTV.

Hence my prediction.

Labour-SNP-Green-Plaid Cymru seems the most likely government to me given Ukip will struggle to best the gerrymandering system.

morticia
04-04-2015, 05:46 PM
Labour-SNP-Green-Plaid Cymru seems the most likely government to me given Ukip will struggle to best the gerrymandering system.

I hope-really hope- that you are right.

pluralist
04-04-2015, 08:54 PM
^ the above strikes me as a really unwieldy coalition. Then again, we are in unchartered territory.

Farage is reported by the Times tomorrow to be threatening to be in a position to take 6 more Tory MPs as defectors to UKIP if Cameron agrees a deal with Clegg again. I think this is a bluff, an idle threat, as Tories + Lib Dems are unlikely to have the numbers to carry a majority in any case.

Binn Beal
05-04-2015, 10:20 AM
Fluffy Biscuits: the Lib Dems are under pressure having been ridden up the hole by the ToriesRape is not a laughing matter.

Apjp
05-04-2015, 02:08 PM
Rape is not a laughing matter.

First young people, now rape lol.

Maybe people should remember where they are before they post...

Binn Beal
05-04-2015, 02:15 PM
First young people, now rape lol.

Maybe people should remember where they are before they post...
What, if anything, does that mean?

Apjp
05-04-2015, 02:21 PM
What, if anything, does that mean?

The OP has a habit of posting the same way they probably speak.

Celtic Tiger Cubs all out for themselves for example to express his views on young people today.

Posting someone got 'ridden up the hole' is disgusting to say the least.

pluralist
05-04-2015, 07:13 PM
UKIP internal polling suggests Farage may not win a seat in South Thanet and the Conservatives may retain seat.

Binn Beal
05-04-2015, 07:46 PM
Do you have a link to that story?

pluralist
05-04-2015, 08:41 PM
Here you go:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/04/05/ukip-poll-nigel-farage-south-thanet_n_7005964.html

Binn Beal
05-04-2015, 08:55 PM
Thanks. I found the one in the Guardian as well. Doesn't seem to be much in it other than usual UKIP-bashing stuff.

Binn Beal
05-04-2015, 09:07 PM
It's no better or worse an indicator than the polls but Paddy Power is offering odds (in the Thanet South constituency) of 8/13 on UKIP; 5/2 Conservative; 4/1 Labour; 100/1 Others.

Donal Og
06-04-2015, 01:51 PM
So, the knives are out for Sturgeon. Her stellar performance in the debate is all down to being herself - Old Labour. There's a great lesson here for the Lie Bore Party - in UK and Ireland both - but they will not learn it. They can't go to the jacks without asking a focus group. :mad:

pluralist
09-04-2015, 08:05 PM
Gloves are off. By his own cackhandedness Clegg has just made child abuse an election issue.



John MannVerified account
‏@JohnMannMP

After Clegg's outrageous attack on Simon Danczuk today on LBC over child abuse, Sheffield must vote out this pathetic man. Unfit to be MP.


9:38 am - 9 Apr 2015

Apjp
10-04-2015, 02:48 AM
Those Eurocollege technocrat graduates haven't much in the way of thinking capacity have they...along with the insane doctrine if they'd brains they'd be dangerous...

What a pompous idiot. Like a more brainwashed fundamentalist FF/FG leader...

Dr. FIVE
12-04-2015, 06:40 PM
Presumably some character 5intheface has made up

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/17127_10204044001288232_6844863113071097767_n.jpg? oh=bd019db6cff9cbe168ffe87f33922bd5&oe=55A8466B&__gda__=1437596758_dd392757c05b01ae53f9dc27f7b12a4 b

morticia
12-04-2015, 07:00 PM
ROFL, that's brilliant

DCon
12-04-2015, 08:18 PM
http://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20150412/bbc%20poll%20of%20polls.jpg

fluffybiscuits
14-04-2015, 10:38 PM
App for all of you who are interested in the British Gen election but do not know who to vote for

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-should-i-vote-for-general-election-2015-quiz-ukip-conservatives-labour-lib-dems-policies-10174410.html

Labour and Tories appear neck and neck in this polls

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11531506/General-Election-2015-Labour-manifesto-launch-live.html

pluralist
16-04-2015, 09:54 PM
Ken blasting Tories, he only left Cabinet last year!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCvpHlDWAAAmkea.jpg:large

Dr. FIVE
16-04-2015, 10:59 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCvcZUoVAAAOCyf.png

DCon
18-04-2015, 11:16 AM
Latest poll

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC3rkd2WgAABKnr.jpg

Donal Og
18-04-2015, 12:14 PM
Still three weeks to go. Isn't there usually a slight swing back toward the incumbent party in the last day or so? Was just listening to Ed Balls - not a 'great communicator'. Miliband has made some strides recently. And the Tories keep changing the angle of attack on him. Nigel is getting lots of exposure but , if UKIP really get 14% , that would be impressive - and probably scupper the Tory chances. The way the system works there Lab only need about 35%. As someone said 'It's like 300 by-elections'. Essentially , two party politics is over in the UK. Not before time either!

morticia
18-04-2015, 04:32 PM
Yep, too close to call. And then there's the SNP...http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/04/18/d8897ca56fc88a53d345dc6cddc6bcd8.jpg

Anyone else seen this possible Banksy? Masterpiece!

DCon
19-04-2015, 11:49 AM
SNP going for the jugular





The SNP will offer to help the North of England "rebalance Britain" as it makes manifesto pledges about public spending south of the border for the first time, Sky News has learnt.

Nicola Sturgeon's party will promise to be "natural allies" of MPs in the North with pledges of increased spending on infrastructure – specifically high-speed rail.


It will say: "While a strong London is good for the UK, also having a strong Cardiff, Newcastle and Leeds is even better


http://news.sky.com/story/1467977/sturgeon-to-make-manifesto-offer-to-the-north

Cammie baby worried



David Cameron has said that a minority Labour administration in coalition with the SNP would be calamitous for Britain.

In a combative and sometimes ill tempered interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr on Sunday morning, he said: “This would be the first time in our history that a group of nationalists from one part of our country would be involved in altering the direction of our country, and I think that is a frightening prospect.”

“The SNP do not want to come to Westminster to contribute to a government. They want to come to Westminster to break up our country,” he said.





http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/19/labour-snp-coaltion-would-be-calamitous-says-david-cameron

DCon
19-04-2015, 05:56 PM
Ladbrokes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC6LNOPXIAArubG.png

Apjp
20-04-2015, 12:24 AM
I still can't believe British people voted against a fairer electoral system.

I don't care how Extreme Ukip seem every small party should get its share of the votes on seats and transfers.

The Greens at 5% would get at least half a dozen Dáil seats. Obviously the British system diminishes the voice of the alternative left parties then too, bar the SNP of course.

Not as bad as the One Party State in American 'democracy' but still undemocratic in the extremity even when compared with Ireland.

Sidewinder
20-04-2015, 01:25 AM
FPTP is a ludicrous and absurd system. It barely limps along when the political menu is polarised into a binary choice - it completely falls apart when confronted with diverse political fragmentation of the vote, and the results it returns then are wildly at variance with the will of the people. Maybe ordinary Brits will start to cop on to that after two hung elections in a row - after all coalitions, even multi-party ones, are perfectly normal in most European countries and no, the way things are done in Britain really isn't automatically and axiomatically Superior.

But. Good News! The electoral maths does not favour the swivel-eyed WingNut brigade at all at all, and it is actually very unlikely Cameron can command a majority no matter what the fortunes of the LibDems, UKIP and DUP!

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-polls-suggest-ed-miliband-is-likely-to-become-prime-minister/

If Lab can assemble an arrangement (or arrangements) with the SNP, Plaid, Greens, SDLP and LibDems they can command a solid majority that is not at the mercy of any one of those components thus deflecting from the inevitable Tory gutter press attacks on the alleged "legitimacy" of Miliband.

pluralist
20-04-2015, 02:48 AM
I still can't believe British people voted against a fairer electoral system.

...on a rather low turn-out, which seems to indicate the issues were not well-publicised. But perhaps not surprising when the two parties with the biggest political machines think that FPTP benefits them, as indeed it mostly does.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_ref erendum,_2011

Sidewinder
20-04-2015, 03:06 AM
...on a rather low turn-out, which seems to indicate the issues were not well-publicised. But perhaps not surprising when the two parties with the biggest political machines think that FPTP benefits them, as indeed it mostly does.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_ref erendum,_2011

Interesting the 55% vote against in Norn Irn, which has used PR-STV in local council elections for decades, and Assembly elections for nearly 20 years now.

I can't remember the campaign the time, did anyone ever guesstimate how the 18 Norn Westminster seats would go under an AV system?

EDIT: as usual, it actually came down to a simple sectarian headcount with SF/SDLP/Alliance in favour, and the DUP/UUP/TUV Unionists agin' it...just because.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-13051074

Hapax
20-04-2015, 11:12 AM
But. Good News! The electoral maths does not favour the swivel-eyed WingNut brigade at all at all, and it is actually very unlikely Cameron can command a majority no matter what the fortunes of the LibDems, UKIP and DUP!

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-polls-suggest-ed-miliband-is-likely-to-become-prime-minister/

If Lab can assemble an arrangement (or arrangements) with the SNP, Plaid, Greens, SDLP and LibDems they can command a solid majority that is not at the mercy of any one of those components thus deflecting from the inevitable Tory gutter press attacks on the alleged "legitimacy" of Miliband.

Good news right enough! My heart sinks every time I see Labour polling behind the Tories on seats won, but then I see the SNP total (omitted from many reports), the Greens, and so on, and realize that not only are the Tories almost certainly out of government after the vote, but Labour might be sharing power with parties which would actually push them towards a genuinely left-wing agenda,

DCon
20-04-2015, 12:01 PM
Good news right enough! My heart sinks every time I see Labour polling behind the Tories on seats won, but then I see the SNP total (omitted from many reports), the Greens, and so on, and realize that not only are the Tories almost certainly out of government after the vote, but Labour might be sharing power with parties which would actually push them towards a genuinely left-wing agenda,

Lets hope Milliband does not do a Gilmore/Burton and get into bed with the Tories..

Hapax
20-04-2015, 02:08 PM
Peston pontificating:


Out of this mess, perhaps a very odd and paradoxical alliance could be forged, as Robert Harris mused in yesterday's Sunday Times, between a Tory party recognising that union with Scotland no longer serves its own existential interests and an SNP whose priority is to secure constitutional independence from the rest of the UK coupled with a continued monetary union.
As Harris pointed out, alliances as strange have been forged in our parliamentary history - and the logic of securing power can trump ideological and emotional differences.
More likely however is that the UK would need another general election in short order.
Which all sounds a bit inconvenient, but from an economic perspective could be a bit worse than that. Business leaders tell me they would expect an investment hiatus by companies during the unstable interregnum, bankers tell me overseas investors would shun the UK and city traders anticipate a sharp and destabilising fall in the pound.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32379482

DCon
21-04-2015, 06:39 AM
Labour sneak ahead

http://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/20150421/You-gov%20poll.jpg

Apjp
21-04-2015, 04:35 PM
Lets hope Milliband does not do a Gilmore/Burton and get into bed with the Tories..

Yeah.

It will take balls to actually go and lead an old school Labour govt. in coalition with multiple leftwing parties.

The SDLP and Alliance would support him too I presume, provided there are concessions for the North?

He's a victim of his background really Miliband even though it's more modest than Cameron's one.

His brother is very flakey-Wikipedia says David Miliband is on the Geopolitical front 'The Trilateral Commission' which probably explains why the Press wanted him to get elected as leader and not Ed.

pluralist
21-04-2015, 05:48 PM
Lets hope Milliband does not do a Gilmore/Burton and get into bed with the Tories..

Unlikely I think, but when you say 'do a Gilmore/Burton', really and truly, the Irish Labour Party have always been Fine Gael's b***h, its just it usedn't to be as obvious as under the likes of Garret 'the Good' in the eighties, for example, FG were themselves relatively left wing or at least social democratic.

morticia
21-04-2015, 06:53 PM
I cannot see Labour getting into bed with the Tories, unless they somehow end up as a minority party in some distant future. It won't happen this election anyway.

DCon
24-04-2015, 10:18 PM
The UKIP/SNP effect is taking its toll on the tories


Mr Cameron has argued it is "simply unfair" English MPs would be unable to vote on the income tax paid by people in Aberdeen and Edinburgh, while Scottish MPs would be able to vote on the tax paid by residents in Birmingham, Canterbury or Leeds.

Once taxes have been devolved to Scotland, under Conservative plans, MPs from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would need to give the go-ahead to the level of rates across the rest of the UK.

http://news.sky.com/story/1471364/tory-english-votes-plan-to-include-income-tax


http://interactive.news.sky.com/2014/html5/infographic-timeline-template/index.html?project=english_manifesto

Donal Og
25-04-2015, 09:41 AM
I cannot see Labour getting into bed with the Tories, unless they somehow end up as a minority party in some distant future. It won't happen this election anyway.

Aontaim leat, Morticia. Short of some existential crisis, like a world war or the outbreak of some deadly incurable plague. The late great Paul Foot used to tell a good story about Mrs Thatcher. Back when she was in opposition - in those days the Tories and Labour agreed on certain issues. Tories had essentially accepted the post war Labour reforms (NHS, free universities etc) as being the settled will of the British people. So Foot couldn't resist annoying Thatcher about this 'consensus' politics when he met her at some event. 'What's the point of even having two parties when you are just like Labour?'
'You are wrong there ; we are quite different to Labour. We always will be'
Why? 'Because we represent different people'

Paul Foot took her to mean that, from time to time as the situation dictates, Conservatives may implement progressive policies. But, when the going gets tough it's back to normal service : Screw the Workers! An important lesson in politics he said.

morticia
25-04-2015, 11:33 AM
Hilarious, but all too true. Sadly.

pluralist
25-04-2015, 08:06 PM
Labour have announced they will bring in a cap on rents, banning private landlords from increasing them by more than the rate of inflation. This is quite a brave gambit. It will spark a campaign of fury from the Mail, doubtless.

Donal Og
26-04-2015, 11:26 AM
Labour have announced they will bring in a cap on rents, banning private landlords from increasing them by more than the rate of inflation. This is quite a brave gambit. It will spark a campaign of fury from the Mail, doubtless.

Yes , some tory on radio 4 saying it will drive poor old landlords out of the market and create homelessness, end of civilisation as we know it etc.:D

morticia
26-04-2015, 02:09 PM
Bring it on [emoji2][emoji12]

ang
26-04-2015, 02:22 PM
Bring it on [emoji2][emoji12]

Going to be very uncomfortable for Joan and Co.

morticia
26-04-2015, 02:25 PM
Going to be very uncomfortable for Joan and Co.

schadenfreude. And we urgently need more social housing and rent controls here too. Bring on the hairshirt undies.

Apjp
26-04-2015, 04:21 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lklwne_3C-g

A recent Miliband interview with that BBC head Evan from The Dragons Den.

He got a good few decent social democratic points across. A bit populist how he thinks young people should face dole cuts after a year if they have not found a job or if they refuse a job offer after 12 months-he claims he will offer them a job/paid apprenticeship guarantee similar to those on offer in Germany. Not exactly neoliberal but a pretty detached view of youth unemployment. Nothing the Greens and SNP couldn't pull him up on in fairness. His main focus he says is on income inequality, energy prices, health and the reduction of fees for college.

Overall by far the lesser evil if the SNP/Greens/SDLP can get concessions on key areas like social welfare, devolution etc. from him.

Apjp
26-04-2015, 04:45 PM
http://news.sky.com/story/1472448/sturgeon-miliband-will-change-tune-on-deal

Nicola's Response on Sky News.

Like Ed could resist her charms ;)

No in all seriousness it would be easy for him to say he cannot control how the SNP vote and easy enough to just include the SNP in forming legislation through the Parliamentary committees surely? Wouldn't be very hard to work out a deal with them without actually working out a deal.

Apjp
26-04-2015, 05:57 PM
Alex Salmond is also in my second Sky News link above lower down. Very coherent and amusing as usual.

Clegg attacking Labour is also on that link. A bit mad but enough of them could get re-elected to be relevant again. 11 days to go now. Looking interesting. Very little coverage of Plaid Cymru, the Greens and no coverage at all of the Nordie parties like SDLP/Alliance or the DUP who have all hinted they'd be open for coalition.

Apjp
26-04-2015, 06:00 PM
Sorry the wonderfully accented Leanne Wood of P.C. in Wales is actually way down the bottom of that link...

Donal Og
26-04-2015, 06:16 PM
Sorry the wonderfully accented Leanne Wood of P.C. in Wales is actually way down the bottom of that link...

I love Leanne Wood's accent. A lot of the meedja condescension toward Plaid Cymru and the SNP is down to good old fashioned racism, I think. The knives are out for Cams already, though there is still time for a wee blip to save him.

A lot of rot is being talked about unstable coalitions and Labour not having a mandate if they aren't the biggest party. Governments have been elected without winning the popular vote before. The Libdems and Tories are trying to hoodwink people with this made up Constitutional crisis bit. There is no Constitution in the UK, just various precedents.

Apjp
26-04-2015, 06:31 PM
I love Leanne Wood's accent. A lot of the meedja condescension toward Plaid Cymru and the SNP is down to good old fashioned racism, I think. The knives are out for Cams already, though there is still time for a wee blip to save him.

A lot of rot is being talked about unstable coalitions and Labour not having a mandate if they aren't the biggest party. Governments have been elected without winning the popular vote before. The Libdems and Tories are trying to hoodwink people with this made up Constitutional crisis bit. There is no Constitution in the UK, just various precedents.

Indeed.

Where are the SDLP to point this out? Aren't they supposed to be constitutional skeptics in regard to Britain's make up and the fairness of the way devolution works, or lack thereof?

Miliband is about as progressive and centre left as we can expect for someone of his background. He seems to have made a departure in his views on the Iraq war and the Syrian vote so these could be key too. The first time in living memory a leader of the British opposition was in a position to slap down a demand from America for war.

He should really attack Cameron on Syria and Libya.

pluralist
26-04-2015, 07:57 PM
Yes , some tory on radio 4 saying it will drive poor old landlords out of the market and create homelessness, end of civilisation as we know it etc.:D

One for the "man who fears his income will reduce protests plan to reduce his income" file.

morticia
26-04-2015, 08:10 PM
I used to have a lot of respect for Plaid Cymru when I lived in Wales. Hard working constituency MPs, and they opposed the Iraq war. I used to vote for them on the grounds that they were the only alternative contender for the safe Labour constituency I used to live in. Sadly, they could have stuck a red rosette on a one legged dead donkey and got it elected; local MPs therefore not known for overwork.

I think FPTP should be banned by the Geneva convention.

DCon
26-04-2015, 09:26 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDjD2B7WEAAzeSE.jpg

pluralist
26-04-2015, 11:48 PM
^ sad to see a once objective newspaper reduced to that open shilling.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDjpTuRW8AASYnN.png


Here is the link to the list of signatories:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03281/Small_Business_Let_3281571a.pdf

morticia
30-04-2015, 08:38 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/danny-alexander-tory-plans-welfare-cuts-child-benefits?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Well, it appears the Lib Dems may not be entirely prepared to go gently into the good night.

Danny Alexander has just leaked details of crushing Tory cuts to social welfare, child benefit in particular. When reading this article, one should bear in mind that UK child benefit is much lower than ours already; 60 odd STG for the first child and less for subsequent.

The bleeping bleeps (insert worst swear words you can think of) are planning to cut CB for third children altogether, and withdraw support for over 16s still in education. They also want to means test it (less heinous in my view, if they were planning this alone, but that's in addition to the above).

I realise this isn't very unbiased of me but ....Lord, I cannot stand Tories.

well, I guess it's now Govt. policy in Britain that no-one should have more than 2 kids. Unless, of course, the bankster's bonus, or similar, will cover the cost.

Apjp
30-04-2015, 09:12 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/danny-alexander-tory-plans-welfare-cuts-child-benefits?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Well, it appears the Lib Dems may not be entirely prepared to go gently into the good night.

Danny Alexander has just leaked details of crushing Tory cuts to social welfare, child benefit in particular. When reading this article, one should bear in mind that UK child benefit is much lower than ours already; 60 odd STG for the first child and less for subsequent.

The bleeping bleeps (insert worst swear words you can think of) are planning to cut CB for third children altogether, and withdraw support for over 16s still in education. They also want to means test it (less heinous in my view, if they were planning this alone, but that's in addition to the above).

I realise this isn't very unbiased of me but ....Lord, I cannot stand Tories.

well, I guess it's now Govt. policy in Britain that no-one should have more than 2 kids. Unless, of course, the bankster's bonus, or similar, will cover the cost.

Did you see Miliband's interview with that Conervative journalist Evan from BBC?

Miliband was actually asked how many kids poor people should have. He handled it well until he mentioned he'd target young people for punishment instead-why does anybody need to be 'incentivised' to accept a 'guaranteed job/paid apprenticeship'?

Richardbouvet
30-04-2015, 09:19 AM
I have a bad feeling about this election. The tories could come out on top after a late surge of the kind that saved Netanyahu's ass in Israel recently. Here's hoping I am wrong.

Apjp
30-04-2015, 09:37 AM
Miliband appears to be on track to be leading the largest party.

He will have to govern with somebody though whether that's a combination of SNP/Lib Dems/Greens/Plaid Cymru/SDLP/Alliance or whoever(probably all of the above).

Surely a 7 party left leaning coalition would be no bad thing. Might remind people what democracy is too.

DCon
30-04-2015, 09:03 PM
Milliband says no to a SNP coalition

http://www.snappytv.com/tc/575266/133976

pluralist
30-04-2015, 10:42 PM
Surely a 7 party left leaning coalition would be no bad thing..

To be perfectly frank, it sounds terrible. But, still, preferable to Conservative/DUP/UKIP.

Binn Beal
01-05-2015, 06:36 AM
To be perfectly frank, it sounds terrible. But, still, preferable to Conservative/DUP/UKIP
The alternative is more likely to be Lab, SNP, Green, Plaid Cymru and Uncle Tom Cobbly and all. In any case, it's going to be a right proper Syriza.

DCon
01-05-2015, 06:55 AM
Nige on FPTP

http://www.snappytv.com/tc/576291/134350

pluralist
01-05-2015, 06:58 AM
Nige on FPTP

http://www.snappytv.com/tc/576291/134350

Lol. Not that's he's wrong, but has he only just twigged?

Hapax
01-05-2015, 04:07 PM
Milliband says no to a SNP coalition

http://www.snappytv.com/tc/575266/133976

Not just a coalition, apparently. Beeb says he even ruled out confidence and supply:


"I am not going to have a Labour government if it means deals or coalitions with the Scottish National Party," he said, ruling out a so-called confidence and supply arrangement.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32542765


SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said Mr Miliband would never be forgiven if he let the Tories retain power rather than work with her party.

It's not just in Scotland he wouldn't be forgiven, either. What the hell is he playing at?

Hapax
01-05-2015, 05:22 PM
What the hell is he playing at?

My question answered. Well, maybe. Seems the landscape has been significantly changed in this regard by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act of 2011:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-qa-ed-miliband-prime-minister/20837

Shaadi
01-05-2015, 07:24 PM
Not just a coalition, apparently. Beeb says he even ruled out confidence and supply:



http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32542765



It's not just in Scotland he wouldn't be forgiven, either. What the hell is he playing at?Labour stand to lose Scotland to the SNP, possible every last Labour seat in Scotland will be gone from a position where Labour won 41 seats in Scotland in the 2010 Westminster Election. That's approximately 16% of the seats Labour won in the whole of the UK in 2010.

Wouldn't you be bitter and desperate enough to try any tactic to stop that if you were Milliband?

They way I see it, if Labour need the SNP after the election, then Milliand who has painted himself into a corner can be sacrificed in a coup that will let Ed Balls take his position.

Apjp
01-05-2015, 07:42 PM
To be perfectly frank, it sounds terrible. But, still, preferable to Conservative/DUP/UKIP.

I would be quite happy if Sinn Féin led a leftwing and independent grouping of 6-7 parties/groups in a minority govrnment.

Such a govt. would have a vested interest in radical reform and policies to the left of social democracy.

pluralist
02-05-2015, 03:06 AM
I would be quite happy if Sinn Féin led a leftwing and independent grouping of 6-7 parties/groups in a minority govrnment.

Such a govt. would have a vested interest in radical reform and policies to the left of social democracy.

??

This is the British General Election thread. SF operate an abstentionist policy with regard to Westminster.

DCon
02-05-2015, 07:53 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/CD-vypLW0AAfjgT.png

Slim Buddha
02-05-2015, 08:38 AM
If this election achieves anything, it may spell the death knell for the undemocratic, imbecilic and utterly moronic FPTP electoral system which is so utterly discredited it should not be allowed to exist in 21st century politics. Because this ridiculous system is biased in favour of the two main parties, they unsurprisingly want to retain it. But this election may see the end of it. The problem for the Brits is that their political parties have no idea how to deal with results which give no party an overall majority. Hence you have Cameron and Miliband talking all sorts of fatuous nonsense about deals and votes and who will do what on the Queen´s Speech. You may get Labour plus SNP plus whatever works form Plaid Cymru, Greens and others like SDLP who wont vote for the Tories versus Tories, UKIP (if they get anyone apart from Carswell elected) Lib Dems and DUP. (For the purposes of Westminster politics, Sinn Fein are utterly irrelevant). The Brits are not good at this because they have never really had to do it before. Democracy for slow learners, I guess. But the price for any support for the dinosaurs has to be the abolition of FPTP in order to haul the UK in the 21st century form the bowels of the 17th.

morticia
02-05-2015, 10:38 AM
If this election achieves anything, it may spell the death knell for the undemocratic, imbecilic and utterly moronic FPTP electoral system which is so utterly discredited it should not be allowed to exist in 21st century politics. Because this ridiculous system is biased in favour of the two main parties, they unsurprisingly want to retain it. But this election may see the end of it. The problem for the Brits is that their political parties have no idea how to deal with results which give no party an overall majority. Hence you have Cameron and Miliband talking all sorts of fatuous nonsense about deals and votes and who will do what on the Queen´s Speech. You may get Labour plus SNP plus whatever works form Plaid Cymru, Greens and others like SDLP who wont vote for the Tories versus Tories, UKIP (if they get anyone apart from Carswell elected) Lib Dems and DUP. (For the purposes of Westminster politics, Sinn Fein are utterly irrelevant). The Brits are not good at this because they have never really had to do it before. Democracy for slow learners, I guess. But the price for any support for the dinosaurs has to be the abolition of FPTP in order to haul the UK in the 21st century form the bowels of the 17th.

Well, I hope you're right and I'd agree with every word you've written. However, the LibDems did try... the reaction of various relatives over there was "well, that's a bit complicated, I don't understand this, i'm voting NO".

The Irish electorate is both relatively well informed and politically engaged. I'd not recommend extrapolating that across the H2O. The Brits are in general far fonder of "tradition" and far less keen to change things even in instances where it is screamingly obvious that the current format ain't working.

Facepalm.

Slim Buddha
02-05-2015, 10:49 AM
Well, I hope you're right and I'd agree with every word you've written. However, the LibDems did try... the reaction of various relatives over there was "well, that's a bit complicated, I don't understand this, i'm voting NO".

The Irish electorate is both relatively well informed and politically engaged. I'd not recommend extrapolating that across the H2O. The Brits are in general far fonder of "tradition" and far less keen to change things even in instances where it is screamingly obvious that the current format ain't working.

Facepalm.


The Irish electoral system is far fairer and democratic. Irelands problem is not the electoral system (which FF tried to change twice, by the way) but the sort and quality of people attracted to politics in the first place. Across the board, apart form a fistful of notable exceptions, it is catastrophically bad.

morticia
02-05-2015, 11:26 AM
The Irish electoral system is far fairer and democratic. Irelands problem is not the electoral system (which FF tried to change twice, by the way) but the sort and quality of people attracted to politics in the first place. Across the board, apart form a fistful of notable exceptions, it is catastrophically bad.

Yes, I'd defend PRSTV to the death and it is good no one actually succeeded in changing it. However, because of the competition between TDs representing the same patch, it does lead to some undesirable side effects (localism, voting in the local fixer over someone with a more national vision, competitive funeral attendance etc). However, at least you rarely end up with lazy TDs....they have to be seen to be doing something or they don't get back in. Not so in Westminster. You could have stuck a red rosette on a one legged dead donkey in my old Welsh constituency and it would have been elected. No questions asked.

As for the relevant expertise, methinks that situation may be improving. There have been incredible numbers of highly qualified people applying for the Civil Service recently. Our Jim Hackers may be former teachers that show up to the opening of every tin can in their constituency, but our Sir Humphreys are increasingly over qualified [emoji2]

Apjp
02-05-2015, 05:05 PM
??

This is the British General Election thread. SF operate an abstentionist policy with regard to Westminster.

I know that.

The comparisons between a Hung Westminster and a Hung Dáil are pretty apt as SF are likely to be at the head of a wide variety of opposition or possibly minority govt. parties as surely as Labour are next week.

This is the way democracy is going to go across Europe over the next few years. We have already seen it in Greece where two radical opposition parties of differing philosophy have sort of formed an anti-establishment govt. We saw it to a lesser extent in Iceland previously and the next Icelandic election offers this possibility too with the Pirate Party very popular there.

Are you immune from seeing the trend? This analysis should not be limited to Britain but what is about to happen in Britain should be seen in context.

If FPTP can be got rid of too that will be a victory for some sort of localised democracy again too.

Apjp
02-05-2015, 05:16 PM
If this election achieves anything, it may spell the death knell for the undemocratic, imbecilic and utterly moronic FPTP electoral system which is so utterly discredited it should not be allowed to exist in 21st century politics. Because this ridiculous system is biased in favour of the two main parties, they unsurprisingly want to retain it. But this election may see the end of it. The problem for the Brits is that their political parties have no idea how to deal with results which give no party an overall majority. Hence you have Cameron and Miliband talking all sorts of fatuous nonsense about deals and votes and who will do what on the Queen´s Speech. You may get Labour plus SNP plus whatever works form Plaid Cymru, Greens and others like SDLP who wont vote for the Tories versus Tories, UKIP (if they get anyone apart from Carswell elected) Lib Dems and DUP. (For the purposes of Westminster politics, Sinn Fein are utterly irrelevant). The Brits are not good at this because they have never really had to do it before. Democracy for slow learners, I guess. But the price for any support for the dinosaurs has to be the abolition of FPTP in order to haul the UK in the 21st century form the bowels of the 17th.

Hi Slim. Good to see you back.

Just to re-iterate I only raised SF et al in the context of comparing a Hung Dáil to a Hung Parliament over the water. I just want to nip that in the bud before we get into Chinese Whispers territory. One poster misinterpreted or misread what I said and all of a sudden people think somebody is confusing SF's non-role in this outcome, which is of course irrelevant apart from the Parliament having 2-3 seats less.

We all know they abstain. Although of course the SDLP, Alliance, DUP and maybe others from the North may play a crucial role on differing sides of the divide.

I think leftwing coalitions are very much a lesser evil but they have to be democratic and in order for that to happen the bigger parties need to be made realise they cannot compete electorally on the basis that majorities are the only 'stable' form of government.

Centre left and leftwing minority governments have operated competently and progressively in Scotland, Sweden, Denmark and elsewhere.

Apjp
02-05-2015, 05:19 PM
The Irish electoral system is far fairer and democratic. Irelands problem is not the electoral system (which FF tried to change twice, by the way) but the sort and quality of people attracted to politics in the first place. Across the board, apart form a fistful of notable exceptions, it is catastrophically bad.

Yes the voting system is a lifesaver.

No surprise the more Authoritarian governments tried to entrench themselves in the system by seeking to abolish it.

pluralist
02-05-2015, 10:22 PM
I know that.

The comparisons between a Hung Westminster and a Hung Dáil are pretty apt as SF are likely to be at the head of a wide variety of opposition or possibly minority govt. parties as surely as Labour are next week.

This is the way democracy is going to go across Europe over the next few years. We have already seen it in Greece where two radical opposition parties of differing philosophy have sort of formed an anti-establishment govt. We saw it to a lesser extent in Iceland previously and the next Icelandic election offers this possibility too with the Pirate Party very popular there.

Are you immune from seeing the trend? This analysis should not be limited to Britain but what is about to happen in Britain should be seen in context.

If FPTP can be got rid of too that will be a victory for some sort of localised democracy again too.

There is certainly a long term downward trend in the combined vote of the major parties in both the UK and Ireland.

As for FPTP, even Farage of the "British Ways are Always Best!" party has now copped onto FPTP being a ludicrous system.

Apjp
02-05-2015, 11:56 PM
There is certainly a long term downward trend in the combined vote of the major parties in both the UK and Ireland.

As for FPTP, even Farage of the "British Ways are Always Best!" party has now copped onto FPTP being a ludicrous system.

It should be agreed on by all smaller parties that this system must be scrapped to re-energise the stagnant democracy Britain has become.

Conversely Farage can never hope to govern except in coalition under a likely Irish style replacement, which ought to be more than enough to limit him from ever seriously wielding power.

I can't see any Conservative-Ukip coalition ever really getting much done for example and UKIP will never be as powerful as FN in France look like becoming.

Donal Og
03-05-2015, 09:32 AM
Well, I hope you're right and I'd agree with every word you've written. However, the LibDems did try... the reaction of various relatives over there was "well, that's a bit complicated, I don't understand this, i'm voting NO".

The Irish electorate is both relatively well informed and politically engaged. I'd not recommend extrapolating that across the H2O. The Brits are in general far fonder of "tradition" and far less keen to change things even in instances where it is screamingly obvious that the current format ain't working.

Facepalm.
Yes the Libdems tried - but with that awful AV mishmash - not much better than FPTP and v complex. Interestingly there was a man from the Torygraph on the radio ( What the Papers Say), saying that whoever wins the election FPTP must go! Labour could, theoretically win the election after losing the popular vote. Just as the Tories did in 1951. Labour got a bigger vote nationally and lost. Yet they had a huge landslide victory in 1945...mental. I well recall , during Thatcher's merciless 'locust years' watching some tv pundit argue that PR gives you weak governments like Canada. 'Bring it on then!' roared my brother.
:D

DCon
03-05-2015, 06:31 PM
The @SkyNews poll of polls, which averages out all the main polls - has the Conservatives one point ahead of Labour pic.twitter.com/EZHe0AtlZO

In the Sky News Scottish poll of polls, the SNP is way ahead on 50% of the vote - double Labour on 25% #GE2015 pic.twitter.com/ejR66hkuHz

DCon
06-05-2015, 08:34 PM
Sky News Poll of Polls

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEWX94SWEAIt_hJ.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEWX927WgAAVMj9.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEWX94BWoAA-Vuq.jpg

5intheface
06-05-2015, 09:15 PM
Yes the Libdems tried - but with that awful AV mishmash - not much better than FPTP and v complex. Interestingly there was a man from the Torygraph on the radio ( What the Papers Say), saying that whoever wins the election FPTP must go! Labour could, theoretically win the election after losing the popular vote. Just as the Tories did in 1951. Labour got a bigger vote nationally and lost. Yet they had a huge landslide victory in 1945...mental. I well recall , during Thatcher's merciless 'locust years' watching some tv pundit argue that PR gives you weak governments like Canada. 'Bring it on then!' roared my brother.
:D

Did Labour not form a government after losing the popular vote in 74 also?

C. Flower
06-05-2015, 09:16 PM
Do you have a link to that story?

It;'s all over the place. Farage has been pinned down defending his own seat.

pluralist
06-05-2015, 09:29 PM
It is eve of poll today, and I can't see any postings on this vital subject. In fact, I am even having to post on "British General election 2010" forum.

Anyway, here are 2 nightmare scenarios from the point of a (non-tory) watcher of the election results:

1. Exit polls give Cameron a chance of an outright majority, but this depends on a handful of seats which do not declare until about 4am. This would be utterly excrutiating.

2. This one is worse. Exit polls do not look good for Cameron, but as the results come in he starts winning and it becomes clear that the exit polls were wrong. This is almost head-in-the-oven territory.

I have an awful feeling that one of the above will happen. Please God let me be wrong.

I don't think either of above will happen this week. But it might if, as is distinctly possible, there's another election within six months or so, and centrist/undecided voters break for the Tories in the interests of 'stability'.

Donal Og
06-05-2015, 09:44 PM
Yes, I think that's right. The popular vote is not relevant in the context of FPTP. The Liberal Alliance got 23 seats ( or thereabouts ) in the 83 election. For six million votes. Quite mad. Millions more are wasting votes in safe seats. I have a friend in Basildon and her vote actually counts ; it is a genuine 'swing seat'. But I have another friend in Southend on Sea, 12 miles down the road. He may as well go on a long weekend break. Or just get plastered and watch a DVD. Because a pig's bladder on a stick will be elected in the Southend seats - as long as it has a Conservative rosette attached. There is a vote swap website I believe , where people literally swap with another voter in a different seat. But surely that itself is a sign the system is broken.

Sorry - this is a reply to 5 in the face! yes you are correct re 74.:)

Shaadi
06-05-2015, 10:10 PM
I could care less which one of them wins, Blairite Labour and Cameronite Conservatives, the difference is negligible.

OK, The Conservatives are evil, but so are liary Labour.

DCon
06-05-2015, 10:13 PM
You're right

They are just like the Republocrats across the pond and FGFF here

DCon
06-05-2015, 10:24 PM
http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEWpNlWWYAAlkPw-768x1024.jpg

pluralist
06-05-2015, 10:42 PM
^^


Andrew Neil ‏@afneil May 5

Tomorrow's front pages show British press at partisan worst. All pretence of separation between news and opinion gone, even in "qualities".
3,744 retweets 1,555 favourites


The Telegraph is particularly blatant. 'Don't Do Something You'll Regret' is that supposed to be aimed at the tiny % of Telegraph readers that vote Labour? :confused:

C. Flower
07-05-2015, 08:28 AM
Very interesting article here by Irvine Welsh - has application far wider than only the UK.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/may/07/labour-risks-failing-the-english-just-like-it-did-the-scottish

He ends -


In the absence of a British or English consensual national identity, the shouty, rightwing (http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-neil-kinnock-murdoch-labour), media-sponsored Greater Englandism wins by default. So it’s up to the left in England to start defining and negotiating for a civic English national polity, based on citizens’ rights, in a democratic, decentralised, multicultural state. As counter-intuitive as it seems, perhaps it’s time to take that white flag that has been the real symbol of the mainstream left in Britain for the last 30 years, and paint a flaming red cross on top of it. The SNP evidently scares the establishment to a greater extent than a tawdry, complicit Labour, which is essentially competing with the Tories to serve it. How much more would a populist, leftist, decentralist, civic nationalist party in England?


However, the Labour insistence on playing the rigged Westminster game, despite the waning enthusiasm for it from many of the party’s own supporters, shows how its incorporation into the establishment has enfeebled and constrained its imagination. English Labour is a rough coalition between London and the north and West Midlands. Its comfortable middle-class leadership has never been at ease with working-class voters who don’t do as they say and think the way they want them to.
When I insist to leftist friends in London “don’t call me a nationalist”, it doesn’t mean I’m comfortable with the smug, wistful and complacent title of “internationalist”, which is too often simply metropolitan myopia. When one country not 500 miles to the north was trying to liberate itself from a vicious neo-liberalism and the governmental system that promotes it, many on the London left scoffed and sneered. However, few really cared: it just wasn’t their party. The notion that you can stop, rather than help to just precipitate, a cultural shift to the SNP by promising to “get the Tories out” and then (presumably) reforming a corrupt, centralist state in ways you won’t even discuss, is beyond nonsense.

The sad truth is that Blairism has afforded many people who have drifted to the right through wealth, success or just a plain old hardening of the political arteries the delusion that they are somehow still on the “left”. They dislike the grass-roots radicalism of the Scottish independence movement, as it called them out on their own incipient conservatism. When confronted with it during the referendum, their visceral reaction was to pucker their lips in distaste and cry “Salmond!” before throwing in their lot with the status quo.
If the ****-the-bed neo-liberal model of globalisation is truly the last stand of imperialism, then the emerging narrative has to be the progressive, democratic nation state. It’s time for the left in England to get over their hurt that this story didn’t originate in north London, and get onside with this project. After all, it’s where things end up that’s important, not where they start out. The Tories have all but given up on Scotland: it offers them nothing but governmental headache. Labour now unwittingly finds itself in the same boat, having suffered a bad self-inflicted wound by rejecting the Scots, through trying to promote a bogus Britishness that no longer substantively exists. To make the same mistake with regard to England would surely see it dealing itself a fatal one.

Richardbouvet
07-05-2015, 10:27 AM
Here are 2 nightmare scenarios from the point of a (non-tory) watcher of the election results:

1. Exit polls give Cameron a chance of an outright majority, but this depends on a handful of seats which do not declare until about 4am. This would be utterly excruciating.

2. This one is worse. Exit polls do not look good for Cameron, but as the results come in he starts winning and it becomes clear that the exit polls were wrong. This is almost head-in-the-oven territory.

I have an awful feeling that one of the above will happen. Please God let me be wrong.

BTW, why is this thread under "European politics"? Surely the UK should have its own forum.

Apjp
07-05-2015, 12:08 PM
Here is hoping for a multi party left leaning coalition.

Miliband surely cannot be serious about missing his only chance at Downing St cos of some personal or party dislike of the SNP.

Who cares what Jim Murphy says anyways. He won't even get his seat.

DCon
07-05-2015, 07:02 PM
BTW, why is this thread under "European politics"? Surely the UK should have its own forum.

We're all Europeans now :)

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:01 PM
BBC exit poll

Conservatives largest party - 316 seats

Labour - 239 seats

SNP - 58 seats

Lib Dems - 10 seats

UKIP - 2 seats

morticia
07-05-2015, 09:06 PM
Ya bet me to it .

Dang and blarst and all the other swear words I'm not allowed to print here.

Election exit poll puts Tories ahead

UK election exit poll predicts Conservatives will be largest party in a hung parliament, with 316 seats to Labour's 239


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:07 PM
currency reaction





GBP/USD



Close: 1.5245
Current Bid/Ask: 1.5410 / 1.5413

C. Flower
07-05-2015, 09:08 PM
zerohedge @zerohedge



(https://twitter.com/zerohedge) UK Exit Polls: Conservative 316 Labour 239 SNP 58 LibDems 10 Plaid15 4 UKIP 2 #Greens (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Greens) 2 Others 19





The count will be interesting so.

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:08 PM
Ya bet me to it .

Dang and blarst and all the other swear words I'm not allowed to print here.

Election exit poll puts Tories ahead

UK election exit poll predicts Conservatives will be largest party in a hung parliament, with 316 seats to Labour's 239


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099

SNP taking all but one Scottish seat if the poll is accurate

C. Flower
07-05-2015, 09:09 PM
SNP to get all but one seat in Scotland ?

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:13 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbqAEZWIAE7fH7.jpg

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:30 PM
Yougov exit poll: Con 284 lab 263 lib dems 31 snp 48 ukip 2

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:40 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbwqgcWIAENavy.jpg

DCon
07-05-2015, 09:53 PM
Labour win Sunderland South (no surprise)

UKIP take 22% of the vote,and beat Tories (big surprise)

Shaadi
07-05-2015, 09:56 PM
It's a tad early to predict the result, I wouldn't be too sure that the exit poll is correct. At the moment I'd think the result is going to be closer than people think.. Talking about the SKY one not the YouGov one which is more realistic.

pluralist
07-05-2015, 09:58 PM
It's a tad early to predict the result, I wouldn't be too sure that the exit poll is correct. At the moment I'd think the result is going to be closer than people think..

I am thinking exit poll is a rogue rather than the pre election polls. But we will see.

pluralist
07-05-2015, 10:04 PM
First declaration: Labour take Sunderland South as expected, with UKIP in second place. UKIP should finish second many times tonight but will only finish up with handful of seats. Shows fundamental unfairness of FPTP, whatever one thinks of UKIP.

DCon
07-05-2015, 10:06 PM
Nidgey



Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage

My prediction for tonight is that #UKIP vote will prove to be a huge boost to Conservative Party, not that it was our intention.

DCon
07-05-2015, 10:29 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbtN-aUUAA5317.jpg

Apjp
07-05-2015, 10:55 PM
Yougov exit poll: Con 284 lab 263 lib dems 31 snp 48 ukip 2

Okay yes this looks more accurate.

All is not yet lost if these numbers are correct. Lab/Lib dems in concert with SNP/PC or even Lab/Plaid Cymru and some SNP votes.

The Green's 2-3 seats may prove vital.

Apjp
07-05-2015, 10:56 PM
It's a tad early to predict the result, I wouldn't be too sure that the exit poll is correct. At the moment I'd think the result is going to be closer than people think.. Talking about the SKY one not the YouGov one which is more realistic.

Yes the YouGov one is the one I would trust and want to trust more than the Murdoch owned commissioned ones...

Apjp
07-05-2015, 10:58 PM
First declaration: Labour take Sunderland South as expected, with UKIP in second place. UKIP should finish second many times tonight but will only finish up with handful of seats. Shows fundamental unfairness of FPTP, whatever one thinks of UKIP.

Yep exactly my opinion.

DCon
07-05-2015, 11:07 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEcDwfcWAAAhwpY.png

Dr. FIVE
07-05-2015, 11:08 PM
not a bit of this is surprising tbh

Apjp
07-05-2015, 11:10 PM
Er if the Yougov one is even half right Labour have more chances of forming a government. Tories/Lib Dems/Ukip/DUP wouldn't even get over the line on those numbers.

C. Flower
07-05-2015, 11:16 PM
not a bit of this is surprising tbh

So who wins ? :)

Sidewinder
07-05-2015, 11:29 PM
The BBC abandoned any reputation for impartiality at the time of IndyRef. This is all part of the expected right-wing media onslaught to convince the herd that no matter what the actual result in terms of seats, that no matter if Labour end up actually having multiple legitimate paths to a majority, that the Tories - even if they can't assemble a majority - somehow "won" and are the "legitimate" government.

Apjp
07-05-2015, 11:35 PM
A constitutional crisis so called and an imposed technocratic coalition in the National Interest?

Stranger things have happened.

pluralist
07-05-2015, 11:48 PM
The BBC abandoned any reputation for impartiality at the time of IndyRef. This is all part of the expected right-wing media onslaught to convince the herd that no matter what the actual result in terms of seats, that no matter if Labour end up actually having multiple legitimate paths to a majority, that the Tories - even if they can't assemble a majority - somehow "won" and are the "legitimate" government.

It does look that way.

These days I trust Murdoch's Sky News ahead of BBC.

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/596459472677183489/photo/1

pluralist
07-05-2015, 11:59 PM
Exit poll trumpeted by the Beeb looking increasingly like a rogue. If other polls showing Cons only a handful of seats ahead of Labour (1 seat ahead according to one poll), Beeb should lose licence. At the very least, heads should roll at Portland Place.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 12:42 AM
Exit poll trumpeted by the Beeb looking increasingly like a rogue. If other polls showing Cons only a handful of seats ahead of Labour (1 seat ahead according to one poll), Beeb should lose licence. At the very least, heads should roll at Portland Place.

Indications now that the exit poll was accurate. Heads should roll at all the other polling companies in that case. Heads better roll, is all I can say.:mad::mad:

Sidewinder
08-05-2015, 01:14 AM
Surprise defeat of the odious Boxcar Wullie in South Antrim with the UUP somehow staggering back from the dead. Lady Sylvia romps home in North Down. SF & SDLP vote continues to gradually fall...are nationalist voters simply apathetic/less motivated these days and don't bother turning up, or are nationalist-minded voters actively getting fed up with both parties?

Sidewinder
08-05-2015, 01:28 AM
Dougie Alexander trounced in Paisely & Renfrewshire South, losing his seat to a 20-year-old lassie from the SNP who collected 51% of the vote :)

pluralist
08-05-2015, 01:37 AM
Surprise defeat of the odious Boxcar Wullie in South Antrim with the UUP somehow staggering back from the dead. Lady Sylvia romps home in North Down. SF & SDLP vote continues to gradually fall...are nationalist voters simply apathetic/less motivated these days and don't bother turning up, or are nationalist-minded voters actively getting fed up with both parties?

So UUP will have 2 seats, one behind SDLP? Didn't expect that from a party that seemed practically invisible post-Trimble. I guess they must be strong on the ground in some constituencies.

Sidewinder
08-05-2015, 02:45 AM
Brick holds Belfast North but as the sole Unionist candidate with just 47% of the vote. An agreed non-divisive non-Flegger could take this next time.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 03:40 AM
Gildernew could be in trouble in Fermanagh-South Tyrone.

Shaadi
08-05-2015, 03:54 AM
It's a very significant moment for the UK, where are they heading?

Huge regionalism evolving, the rich Tory South in control, breeding resentment and increased resistance to English rule elsewhere. I don't think the UK could have a had a more destabilizing result.

NI politics seemingly defying the demographic shifts, DUPers winning battles and in the long term on a decline losing the Unionist majority to a growing fragmentation of the traditional unionist vote which is showing increased tolerance.

SF seem to have hit a wall, SDLP hanging in, why are the demographics not feeding through? Why are voters staying at home?

SF likely to get uppity to guard its flank from the left challenge to its traditional vote.

Hmm, there may be trouble ahead...

Unity Unionist candidate Elliot rumored to be ahead of Gildernew.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:06 AM
I reckon of the four main 'English-centred' parties, three will have new leadership vacancies within days. Tough game, politics.

Shaadi
08-05-2015, 04:16 AM
I reckon of the four main 'English-centred' parties, three will have new leadership vacancies within days. Tough game, politics.Leadership is important, Labour cut their own throats by making Milliband leader. He was a truly hapless figure to put before the electorate as Prime Minister material.

Even Labour voters would squirm at the thought of him representing the UK on the World Stage!

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:17 AM
Unity Unionist candidate Elliot rumored to be ahead of Gildernew.

Has been confirmed Elliott has taken the seat.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:25 AM
Esther McVey has lost Wirral West seat to Labour, one of few Labour gains from the Tories. Merseyside now a Tory-free zone again.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:25 AM
Leadership is important, Labour cut their own throats by making Milliband leader. He was a truly hapless figure to put before the electorate as Prime Minister material.

Even Labour voters would squirm at the thought of him representing the UK on the World Stage!

I never went along with the Miliband as hapless figure meme - guess most of the electorate disagreed with me.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:33 AM
Here are 2 nightmare scenarios from the point of a (non-tory) watcher of the election results:

1. Exit polls give Cameron a chance of an outright majority, but this depends on a handful of seats which do not declare until about 4am. This would be utterly excruciating.

2. This one is worse. Exit polls do not look good for Cameron, but as the results come in he starts winning and it becomes clear that the exit polls were wrong. This is almost head-in-the-oven territory.

I have an awful feeling that one of the above will happen. Please God let me be wrong.

BTW, why is this thread under "European politics"? Surely the UK should have its own forum.

Bloody heck, mate. Any chance of a tip on the 4:30 at Exeter? ;)

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:39 AM
All counts now in for Northern Ireland

18 seats in NI:
DUP - 8 (-1)
SF - 4 (-1)
SDLP - 3 (+/-0)
UUP - 2 (+2)
Ind - 1 (+/-1)

#GE2015NI

The Independent is Lady Sylvia Hermon, so from the Unionist 'gene pool', as it were.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 04:47 AM
Final #NorthernIreland vote shares:
DUP 25.7%,
SF 24.5%,
UUP 16.0%,
SDLP 13.9%,
All 8.6%,
Oth 11.3%.

morticia
08-05-2015, 05:33 AM
El Beebo reporting Cameron likely to get 325 seats. Without the Shinners in their seats, this gives him a working majority without DUP/UKIP/LibDem etc.

Any chance the Shinners could be persuaded to take their seats for once, just to make life difficult for him[emoji35]??

On another note, what is wrong with Britain? He hacks welfare and essential services for all but a privileged top layer and the electorate increased his seat count?? Won't happen here, we can be sure of that. Is it the same as the US, where a lot of the white population is being convinced that the welfare payments are going to "them", therefore they are tolerating the cuts increasingly?? Statistically I'm sure it's not true, but is this why people are permitting this?? Unpleasant theory I know, happy to hear more pleasant ones, but I'm suspicious this may be down to a toxic anti EU and immigration cocktail.

I'm gobsmacked, and not in a good way. We might see a lot of emigrants come home as a result, if reaction on Facebook is anything to go by; quite a lot of people saying they're planning to activate Irish passports, if entitled...

The only good thing is the SNP...

And Dave is gonna have to hold that referendum now. Brexit, here we come.

DCon
08-05-2015, 05:33 AM
From the beeb




UKIP nationally will have gained 3.5 million votes and yet will only end up with one (or possibly two seats) in the House of Commons, YouGov's Peter Kellner says. Meanwhile, the SNP will have 1.5 million votes but 56 seats. Hardly surprising that UKIP have become advocates of electoral reform. Mr Kellner says, if nothing else, it makes electoral reform a subject of debate.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 05:43 AM
El Beebo reporting Cameron likely to get 325 seats. Without the Shinners in their seats, this gives him a working majority without DUP/UKIP/LibDem etc.

Any chance the Shinners could be persuaded to take their seats for once, just to make life difficult for him[emoji35]??

On another note, what is wrong with Britain? He hacks welfare and essential services for all but a privileged top layer and the electorate increased his seat count?? Won't happen here, we can be sure of that. Is it the same as the US, where a lot of the white population is being convinced that the welfare payments are going to "them", therefore they are tolerating the cuts increasingly?? Statistically I'm sure it's not true, but is this why people are permitting this?? Unpleasant theory I know, happy to hear more pleasant ones, but I'm suspicious this may be down to a toxic anti EU and immigration cocktail.

I'm gobsmacked, and not in a good way. We might see a lot of emigrants come home as a result, if reaction on Facebook is anything to go by; quite a lot of people saying they're planning to activate Irish passports, if entitled...

Tories and DUP doing a deal, if that happens, is disastrous, I'd honestly rather if they do now win outright majority, or even Tories and UKIP.

Someone said on Twitter 2002 Irish General Election might be a parallel, in a way. I think that's an interesting point.

Lib Dems lost seats, as everyone predicted. Hardly anyone predicted that it was the Tories and not Labour that hoovered most of those seats up.

Launchbury
08-05-2015, 07:36 AM
Politics is mental, I'd say there's a lot of red faced poll companies this morning. It's going to be great craic seeing our lot brick themselves at Brexit


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Andrew49
08-05-2015, 08:51 AM
Looking forward to David Cameron ruling the "United Kingdom" AND the Tory party all at the same time. Sparks will be flying.

Surely there has to be a second Referendum in Scotland!

goatstoe
08-05-2015, 09:09 AM
Looking forward to David Cameron ruling the "United Kingdom" AND the Tory party all at the same time. Sparks will be flying.

Surely there has to be a second Referendum in Scotland!

If they actually table a vote for Britain to leave the EU it would mean another Scottish Referendum, the Scots don't want to leave the EU.

Andrew49
08-05-2015, 09:22 AM
If they actually table a vote for Britain to leave the EU it would mean another Scottish Referendum, the Scots don't want to leave the EU.

Which makes it all very interesting. How Cameron juggles all the balls - without getting hit and seriously injured - is going to be fun to watch.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 09:36 AM
Which makes it all very interesting. How Cameron juggles all the balls - without getting hit and seriously injured - is going to be fun to watch.

Cameron may long for the days of coalition. Right wingers on his back-benches will be looking for all kinds of concessions. They'll be looking for a real Queen's speech along these lines:


http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/beyond-satire-tory-rights-alternative-queens-speech

pluralist
08-05-2015, 09:37 AM
Farage beaten by 2,800 in South Thanet. A poor result for him, though not quite as bad as being beaten into third as some were predicting.

DCon
08-05-2015, 09:58 AM
If they actually table a vote for Britain to leave the EU it would mean another Scottish Referendum, the Scots don't want to leave the EU.

Will the Scots have any say?

they (SNP) are not in government.

DCon
08-05-2015, 11:35 AM
bloodbath



• Ed Miliband steps down as Leader of the Labour Party
• Nick Clegg steps down as Leader of Liberal Democrats
• Nigel Farage steps down as leader of UKIP

Apjp
08-05-2015, 12:01 PM
El Beebo reporting Cameron likely to get 325 seats. Without the Shinners in their seats, this gives him a working majority without DUP/UKIP/LibDem etc.

Any chance the Shinners could be persuaded to take their seats for once, just to make life difficult for him[emoji35]??

On another note, what is wrong with Britain? He hacks welfare and essential services for all but a privileged top layer and the electorate increased his seat count?? Won't happen here, we can be sure of that. Is it the same as the US, where a lot of the white population is being convinced that the welfare payments are going to "them", therefore they are tolerating the cuts increasingly?? Statistically I'm sure it's not true, but is this why people are permitting this?? Unpleasant theory I know, happy to hear more pleasant ones, but I'm suspicious this may be down to a toxic anti EU and immigration cocktail.

I'm gobsmacked, and not in a good way. We might see a lot of emigrants come home as a result, if reaction on Facebook is anything to go by; quite a lot of people saying they're planning to activate Irish passports, if entitled...

The only good thing is the SNP...

And Dave is gonna have to hold that referendum now. Brexit, here we come.

Ireland is a good degree less insane in comparison. For the moment. The blatant unfairness of the electoral system in Britain did for any serious opposition from outsider parties in England though-UKIP, The Greens and small party candidates never had a chance. Ukip got about 13-14% and the Greens got close to 7% I think. Imagine how many Dáil seats that could be for comparison as to how undemocratic our nearest neighbour is.

A very amusing meme doing the round showing our little island saying 'British Refugees welcome'.

This is depressing because no matter what happens Dave is safe. He can call upon the UUP or the DUP or even the Lib Dem's if 2-3 MP's in his own party get stroppy. Why wouldn't he go for broke and leave Europe now? A chance to leave his own legacy from his own warped point of view.

Boris Johnson in the next Cabinet or potentially as Deputy PM will be some spectacle.

A Field day for buffoons, clowns and swivel eyed nutjobs everywhere.

Whatever happens in Ireland surely there is no way FG will increase their seats and get a majority. Irish people cannot be that thick and going on recent elections are not as loathing of the poor or foreigners as half of England remains.

Farage resigning is a surprise. He won them the European election and FPTP is what stopped them winning a fair share of seats. Shows how little loyalty there is in British politics.

Apjp
08-05-2015, 12:03 PM
I for one welcome Irish Reunification and Scottish Independence which may come very soon if Britain leaves the EU.

Apjp
08-05-2015, 12:06 PM
From the beeb

I completely agree with UKIP for once.

We cannot operate democracy on the basis of keeping themmuns out by Gerrymandering because they don't like immigrants.

FPTP has to go but sadly is here for good. Britain isn't a democracy.

Apjp
08-05-2015, 12:08 PM
Looking forward to David Cameron ruling the "United Kingdom" AND the Tory party all at the same time. Sparks will be flying.

Surely there has to be a second Referendum in Scotland!

Another referendum in that context would be dopey.

They should just declare independence, swivel eyed nutjobs be damned.

Richardbouvet
08-05-2015, 12:16 PM
Already the Blairites are gathering around the political corpse of Ed Miliband. We are hearing a crescendo of "They picked the wrong Miliband."

More serious than this however, is the supposed truism that "Labour cannot win from the left" which I heard being trumpeted several times on the radio this morning.This is a poisonous mantra, which implies that UK politics is doomed forever to alternate between centre and right.

My question to all progressives is: How do we combat this counsel of despair? The people who say it seem to have the facts on their side. In 1992 and this week, a (very modestly) leftish program failed to get the votes. Those of us who want something better for the UK than a return to tory lite must answer this argument.

In any case, however, it seems likely that the Blairites will retake control of the party, at least in the short term. It is tragic.

Apjp
08-05-2015, 12:19 PM
Already the Blairites are gathering around the political corpse of Ed Miliband. We are hearing a crescendo of "They picked the wrong Miliband."

More serious than this however, is the supposed truism that "Labour cannot win from the left" which I heard being trumpeted several times on the radio this morning.This is a poisonous mantra, which implies that UK politics is doomed forever to alternate between centre and right.

My question to all progressives is: How do we combat this counsel of despair? The people who say it seem to have the facts on their side. In 1992 and this week, a (very modestly) leftish program failed to get the votes. Those of us who want something better for the UK than a return to tory lite must answer this argument.

In any case, however, it seems likely that the Blairites will retake control of the party, at least in the short term. It is tragic.

Forget them. David Miliband is a US Stooge who has been to Bilderberg meetings and is on some geopolitical think tank called the Trilateral Commission.

We need to focus our energies at home now and do whatever it takes to get SF/Independents/small left parties and friends into govt. in the short term.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 12:40 PM
In any case, however, it seems likely that the Blairites will retake control of the party, at least in the short term. It is tragic.

I wouldn't assume that. People like Tom Watson and Simon Danzcuk have emerged with increased majorities, bucking the national trend, I wouldn't describe either as Blairites.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 12:40 PM
Another referendum in that context would be dopey.

They should just declare independence, swivel eyed nutjobs be damned.

Cameron will make some kind of offer, however I would expect them to refuse it. They are in the driving seat now for sure.

Apjp
08-05-2015, 12:51 PM
Cameron will make some kind of offer, however I would expect them to refuse it. They are in the driving seat now for sure.

SNP right?

Tories and SNP have both had a field day in their respective fields.

pluralist
08-05-2015, 01:03 PM
SNP right?

Yes. Being the third largest party they are now entitled to representation on all House of Commons select committees. They will likely look for chairmanships of some. They have indicated that they are aware responsibility is on them to provide opposition. I hope they step up to the plate and work with Labour in a constructive fashion (and vice versa).

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 01:32 PM
El Beebo reporting Cameron likely to get 325 seats. Without the Shinners in their seats, this gives him a working majority without DUP/UKIP/LibDem etc.

Any chance the Shinners could be persuaded to take their seats for once, just to make life difficult for him[emoji35]??

On another note, what is wrong with Britain? He hacks welfare and essential services for all but a privileged top layer and the electorate increased his seat count?? Won't happen here, we can be sure of that. Is it the same as the US, where a lot of the white population is being convinced that the welfare payments are going to "them", therefore they are tolerating the cuts increasingly?? Statistically I'm sure it's not true, but is this why people are permitting this?? Unpleasant theory I know, happy to hear more pleasant ones, but I'm suspicious this may be down to a toxic anti EU and immigration cocktail.

I'm gobsmacked, and not in a good way. We might see a lot of emigrants come home as a result, if reaction on Facebook is anything to go by; quite a lot of people saying they're planning to activate Irish passports, if entitled...

The only good thing is the SNP...

And Dave is gonna have to hold that referendum now. Brexit, here we come.

what the hell happened overnight? a woman goes to sleep and wakes up in a new planet?

what happened to the LibDems?

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 01:34 PM
Politics is mental, I'd say there's a lot of red faced poll companies this morning. It's going to be great craic seeing our lot brick themselves at Brexit


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

well seems like the pollsters were working for The Con man, no?

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 01:35 PM
If they actually table a vote for Britain to leave the EU it would mean another Scottish Referendum, the Scots don't want to leave the EU.

ok this is good

Apjp
08-05-2015, 01:37 PM
what the hell happened overnight? a woman goes to sleep and wakes up in a new planet?

what happened to the LibDems?

There are 8 or 9 of them still around. If Dave is fancying a stable 5 more years he can include them.

But he is now in a position to go for broke. Boris and chums are in the wings to deliver his head on a silver plate if he doesn't concede enough ground so this is the more likely option.

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 01:46 PM
Already the Blairites are gathering around the political corpse of Ed Miliband. We are hearing a crescendo of "They picked the wrong Miliband."

ah dose bums didnt vote for Miliband cos he is a Jew!

Hey Morticia .... what do ye think? :) :)

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 01:52 PM
what happened in Northern Ireland? (make it really simple for a foreigner to understand :) )

if Scotland becomes 'more' independent will the NI folks warm up to Dublin? or will they chose Edinburgh?

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 01:53 PM
I for one welcome Irish Reunification and Scottish Independence which may come very soon if Britain leaves the EU.

why do you say this? on what basis?

Richardbouvet
08-05-2015, 01:57 PM
Random, both Milibands are Jews, and Ed eats bacon sandwiches, so I hardly think it was that.

Apjp
08-05-2015, 02:00 PM
what happened in Northern Ireland? (make it really simple for a foreigner to understand :) )

if Scotland becomes 'more' independent will the NI folks warm up to Dublin? or will they chose Edinburgh?

They won't have a choice.

That's the beauty of it.

It'll be go off with the crazy swivel eyed nutjobs or come to some sort of arrangement within their own country.

It's 50-50 either way.

The SNP are complete polar opposites to the Northern Unionists ideologically.

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 02:38 PM
Random, both Milibands are Jews, and Ed eats bacon sandwiches, so I hardly think it was that.


:) feeling much better i eat bacon too and apparently that doesnt make me less of a jew

so ye think i can get meself a Jew up there?

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 02:41 PM
They won't have a choice.

That's the beauty of it.

It'll be go off with the crazy swivel eyed nutjobs or come to some sort of arrangement within their own country.

It's 50-50 either way.

The SNP are complete polar opposites to the Northern Unionists ideologically.

so the Unionists up North will probably just stick to the Queen then, no? they will go with London... not Dublin.

morticia
08-05-2015, 04:39 PM
ah dose bums didnt vote for Miliband cos he is a Jew!

Hey Morticia .... what do ye think? :) :)

No, RNY. Most people weren't even aware of that and anyway, he's not practicing, so I don't know exactly how relevant that is? Surely if you're an atheist or non-believer, it doesn't matter what religion your parents espoused? Sure, Judaism has some racial connotations that being of Protestant or Catholic or Muslim origin maybe wouldn't, but.....

People didn't vote for Miliband because he was more left wing and less anti immigration and minority rights than they wanted, and he also came across as less macho than required.

@Apjp, hope you're right re Scots independence and Irish reunification. I'd certainly bet on the former.

As someone with many British links, I despair and apologise. Facepalm.

Lord help us over Brexit. The poor old IDA et al. are going to have to renegotiate all trade deals on a bilateral basis if they bail and bureaucratic sclerosis will be the least of it. Recession here we come.

Shaadi
08-05-2015, 04:55 PM
what happened in Northern Ireland? (make it really simple for a foreigner to understand :) )

if Scotland becomes 'more' independent will the NI folks warm up to Dublin? or will they chose Edinburgh?Firstly NI is not going to change constitutionally for 2 decades if at all, on the other hand the UK as whole is actually on fire re Nationalist feelings. Make no mistake the Tory victory was an English victory, too complex to explain the details but the English asserted their control over the whole UK by plumping for the Conservatives and gave 2 fingers to the EU. Scotland's result is a huge challenge to the UK, how it plays out is anyone's guess, but the Conservative win is a red flag to a bull to the Scots.


A good night for the NI Unionist vote, a mildly bad night for the NI Nationalist vote. A result with horribly complex underlying demographics and levels of apathy or engagement that may mask an awful lot of possibly contradictory and changeable positions.

First off the Nationalist % vote fell slightly ( SFs numerical vote actually rose a little while the secondary Nationalist party the SDLP's vote fell ), the Nationalists lost a seat to the Unionists, but that seat loss was an incredibly close call 500 or so votes and had been won previously by just 4 votes in 2010 ( perhaps a single vote after a recount or some such last time ).

That Unionist win this time was achieved by Unionists having a single agreed candidate against two Nationalist candidates. The hardline Unionist pacts in a few constituencies worked well for them, but those pacts mask a moderating of hardline Unionist opinion in the Protestant community.

The story for me is what's going on, why hasn't the undoubtedly huge demographic shift fed through to the elections.

There's an intense Unionist-Nationalist battle going on in parts of Northern Ireland and not in others, there are turnout falls in safe Nationalist areas and Unionist fear of losing seats is driving Unionist voters to the polls in areas where their seats are under some threat. There's a welcome but limited normalisation of politics occurring in NI, the more Liberal Unionist and neutrals are gaining some ground against the hard Core Unionists vote.

There's an awful lot of weird and normality mixed into these results, some considerable tactical voting going on where people vote for candidates to block others. Next year's Assembly elections will clear up the muddled picture a fair bit. A Brexit would turn Northern Ireland's Unionists and Scotland inside out, so much so that the result of that could be a breakup of the UK, with a form of UI back on the cards for economic reasons..

Shaadi
08-05-2015, 05:05 PM
ah dose bums didnt vote for Miliband cos he is a Jew!

Hey Morticia .... what do ye think? :) :)They didn't vote for him because he looks and acts like a Gobshyte..:)

Saoirse go Deo
08-05-2015, 07:57 PM
How significant was UKIP in taking working class votes from labour, enabling the Conservatives to win seats?

morticia
08-05-2015, 08:10 PM
How significant was UKIP in taking working class votes from labour, enabling the Conservatives to win seats?

Given that they got 12.3% of the vote and 1 seat, I'd say pretty significant.

Excellent point, I hadn't thought of that !

They may have taken from the LibDems as well?

Apjp
08-05-2015, 08:32 PM
Cameron will get his Thatcherite decade and legacy opening the door for Boris and Pals.

DCon
08-05-2015, 08:49 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEgut_2WgAAogPl.jpg

DCon
08-05-2015, 08:51 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEgtbE2XIAACL6f.jpg

PaddyJoe
08-05-2015, 09:13 PM
No, RNY. Most people weren't even aware of that and anyway, he's not practicing, so I don't know exactly how relevant that is? Surely if you're an atheist or non-believer, it doesn't matter what religion your parents espoused? Sure, Judaism has some racial connotations that being of Protestant or Catholic or Muslim origin maybe wouldn't, but.....

People didn't vote for Miliband because he was more left wing and less anti immigration and minority rights than they wanted, and he also came across as less macho than required.

@Apjp, hope you're right re Scots independence and Irish reunification. I'd certainly bet on the former.

As someone with many British links, I despair and apologise. Facepalm.

Lord help us over Brexit. The poor old IDA et al. are going to have to renegotiate all trade deals on a bilateral basis if they bail and bureaucratic sclerosis will be the least of it. Recession here we come.

Nope, not so Morticia. Remember the old joke about the new fella that moves into the street and get asked about religion. "Well, I'm an atheist" "Ok, but are you a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist?"
There's more than a grain of truth in that one.
;)

pluralist
08-05-2015, 09:21 PM
Nope, not so Morticia. Remember the old joke about the new fella that moves into the street and get asked about religion. "Well, I'm an atheist" "Ok, but are you a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist?"
There's more than a grain of truth in that one.
;)

Begorrah.

PaddyJoe
08-05-2015, 09:32 PM
Begorrah.
Supposedly an old fashioned Irish corruption of "By god", no? The ould religion is never far from the surface.
:)

morticia
08-05-2015, 09:32 PM
Nope, not so Morticia. Remember the old joke about the new fella that moves into the street and get asked about religion. "Well, I'm an atheist" "Ok, but are you a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist?"
There's more than a grain of truth in that one.
;)

Well, yes, according to the Southside Provisional, they used to ask the 'RA and Loyalist boys that when committing them to jail; obviously, one wouldn't want to be banged up with the wrong crowd in a sectarian slammer, now would one??

However, I remember one relative from the larger island next door nearly dying of laughter after some guy was described in such a way in an Irish paper. Similar paroxysms of laughter arose after someone here was described as a "devout Protestant".....that's an oxymoron on the "mainland" apparently (at least in England).

Makes the DUP look a bit foreign to their "beloved compatriots", dunnit??

But anyway, I thought that whole Catholic atheist/Protestant atheist thing was confined to Nordieland.....

morticia
08-05-2015, 09:46 PM
BoJo on the Beebvision just now to admit that actually, one needs to make some sort of "federal offer" to the Scots after Nicola Sturgeon and Co. Ltd. have left Lib, Lab and Con with one seat each, and the SNP with 56.

Fairly decisive "we wanna divorce" kind of vote, methinks. It appears BoJo at least can see the calligraphy on the wall. Cameron still on about "one nation".

Frankly, not even England looks all that United; South is blue, North is red.

PaddyJoe
08-05-2015, 09:54 PM
Well, yes, according to the Southside Provisional, they used to ask the 'RA and Loyalist boys that when committing them to jail; obviously, one wouldn't want to be banged up with the wrong crowd in a sectarian slammer, now would one??

However, I remember one relative from the larger island next door nearly dying of laughter after some guy was described in such a way in an Irish paper. Similar paroxysms of laughter arose after someone here was described as a "devout Protestant".....that's an oxymoron on the "mainland" apparently (at least in England).

Makes the DUP look a bit foreign to their "beloved compatriots", dunnit??

But anyway, I thought that whole Catholic atheist/Protestant atheist thing was confined to Nordieland.....

Not a bit of it. In the further reaches of rural Ireland if you're an atheist you're more than likely going to be English or French or German or married to some class of blow in like that. Anyway, I'm well off topic here so this is a conversation for another thread.

morticia
08-05-2015, 09:59 PM
Not a bit of it. In the further reaches of rural Ireland if you're an atheist you're more than likely going to be English or French or German or married to some class of blow in like that. Anyway, I'm well off topic here so this is a conversation for another thread.

Well, ok, maybe I've lived too much of my life in South Dublin.....[emoji12]
But we were discussing Ed Miliband's possible Jewish roots, and I do know they don't do the Protestant/Catholic atheist thing in England....I'm sure there are many who wouldn't have much of a clue about what religions their grandparents practiced, if any. The atheism goes back more generations there.... Not always a good thing, from a societal ethics POV. Money, money, money.....Mammon is the replacement God

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 11:12 PM
Firstly NI is not going to change constitutionally for 2 decades if at all, on the other hand the UK as whole is actually on fire re Nationalist feelings. Make no mistake the Tory victory was an English victory, too complex to explain the details but the English asserted their control over the whole UK by plumping for the Conservatives and gave 2 fingers to the EU. Scotland's result is a huge challenge to the UK, how it plays out is anyone's guess, but the Conservative win is a red flag to a bull to the Scots.


A good night for the NI Unionist vote, a mildly bad night for the NI Nationalist vote. A result with horribly complex underlying demographics and levels of apathy or engagement that may mask an awful lot of possibly contradictory and changeable positions.

First off the Nationalist % vote fell slightly ( SFs numerical vote actually rose a little while the secondary Nationalist party the SDLP's vote fell ), the Nationalists lost a seat to the Unionists, but that seat loss was an incredibly close call 500 or so votes and had been won previously by just 4 votes in 2010 ( perhaps a single vote after a recount or some such last time ).

That Unionist win this time was achieved by Unionists having a single agreed candidate against two Nationalist candidates. The hardline Unionist pacts in a few constituencies worked well for them, but those pacts mask a moderating of hardline Unionist opinion in the Protestant community.

The story for me is what's going on, why hasn't the undoubtedly huge demographic shift fed through to the elections.

There's an intense Unionist-Nationalist battle going on in parts of Northern Ireland and not in others, there are turnout falls in safe Nationalist areas and Unionist fear of losing seats is driving Unionist voters to the polls in areas where their seats are under some threat. There's a welcome but limited normalisation of politics occurring in NI, the more Liberal Unionist and neutrals are gaining some ground against the hard Core Unionists vote.

There's an awful lot of weird and normality mixed into these results, some considerable tactical voting going on where people vote for candidates to block others. Next year's Assembly elections will clear up the muddled picture a fair bit. A Brexit would turn Northern Ireland's Unionists and Scotland inside out, so much so that the result of that could be a breakup of the UK, with a form of UI back on the cards for economic reasons..


thx Shaadi... i feel enlightened now

i also saw a graph posted by the Economist (I think) that shows in a very simple figure how different Northern Ireland is from the rest of the UK. Like they are a complicated kind of 'beast'... that's why i keep asking questions an when i think i nailed something down .....there's g-d knows what else i didnt consider.

on Brexit ... well i went running an prodded my friend (the politician in PT)... well he is half english (well half-welsh really) but i love him anyway ... so he was telling all of us how he went an voted conservative and as he was taking a beating from all of us libdems I was able to find out he doesn't think Brexit is in the cards for the UK.

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 11:20 PM
They didn't vote for him because he looks and acts like a Gobshyte..:)

:) i think he looks good, in his fair skin, dark hair, libdem, jewish ..what else could a woman wish for? :)

makes sense he is libdem tho

so is Maajid Nawaz ... good one, on the muslim side, i wonder if he is going to run for the top job

random new yorker
08-05-2015, 11:22 PM
Nope, not so Morticia. Remember the old joke about the new fella that moves into the street and get asked about religion. "Well, I'm an atheist" "Ok, but are you a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist?"
There's more than a grain of truth in that one.
;)

Morticia dear

i am now thinking you may be trying to deceive me with this spiel about how no one really knew he is a jew :)

PaddyJoe
08-05-2015, 11:33 PM
Morticia dear

i am now thinking you may be trying to deceive me with this spiel about how no one really knew he is a jew :)

That joke only applies to Ireland, RNY. I tend to agree with her on Milliband and Jewishness.
:)

random new yorker
09-05-2015, 01:54 AM
That joke only applies to Ireland, RNY. I tend to agree with her on Milliband and Jewishness.
:)

well i try to use my smilies here but honestly they suck and can't convey the simplest sarcasm :)

AND

I am fully aware of my status as a 'blow in' :)

morticia
09-05-2015, 06:53 AM
Morticia dear

i am now thinking you may be trying to deceive me with this spiel about how no one really knew he is a jew :)

All I knew about his religion of origin (obviously not too relevant given the bacon sandwiches) was when someone mentioned it on here during the week. And had I been in Britain and living somewhere other than Scotland, I would have voted Labour regardless, promise [emoji2].

Slim Buddha
09-05-2015, 08:08 AM
It is a travesty that is the brain-dead, eighteenth century, first-past-the-post system allows the SDLP claim 3 seats on 99,000 votes and UKIP only one seat on almost four million votes. If you were designing a new country and had to select a voting system to represent the population is a fair manner, FPTP would not even deserve a minute´s consideration.

morticia
09-05-2015, 10:24 AM
It is a travesty that is the brain-dead, eighteenth century, first-past-the-post system allows the SDLP claim 3 seats on 99,000 votes and UKIP only one seat on almost four million votes. If you were designing a new country and had to select a voting system to represent the population is a fair manner, FPTP would not even deserve a minute´s consideration.

You betcha. Agree 100%. Don't know what the UK electorate was thinking, except that Nick Clegg's system was the not much better AV. PRSTV is the fairest and best, IMO.

DCon
09-05-2015, 10:53 AM
Discuss:






SNP + LibDems 4.3 million votes = 64 Seats
UKIP 3.8 million votes = 1 Seat


The election results under a fair voting system:

CON 244
LAB 201
UKIP 83
LD 52
SNP 31
Greens 25
DUP 3
PC 3
SF 3
UUP 2
SDLP 2
Alliance 1





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/britain-functioning-democracy-its-not

Apjp
09-05-2015, 11:15 AM
http://news.sky.com/story/1480524/salmond-tory-majority-to-erode-in-months

Okay the only three real pluses of this election have been:

1. The FPTP system's days are numbered surely to God after this mess. The DUP getting 8 times more seats than the Greens or UKIP on a fraction of their vote is risible and I would say a public clamour will emerge for this over the next decade or so.

2. UKIP are at least off the stage for now, though they have not gone away as they have a sizeable vote and many MEPS cos of their election win last year under a much fairer voting system. Farage has said he will consider whether to run again for the leadership after the summer. Claims he is taking his first period off in 22 years, which I would almost believe as it feels like he's been on the airwaves that long.

3. The SNP will be the real leaders of the Opposition. This is good for leftwing politics in Britain. The pure legend that is Alex Salmond is back in business and in the link above predicts amazingly that the Tory majority will not last long. He's looking forward to some showbiz baby showbiz style chaos when that happens. Worth mentioning I suppose this new government will have a much smaller majority than the last one.

While the next five years could potentially be really depressing to witness all is not lost and we still have our own election to get through in the meantime which should hopefully leave Ireland ungovernable. FG seem to be banking on a majority themselves which is surely crazy talk after last year's European, local and by elections.

The Carlow election will be interesting. If FG don't win that surely there will be an early election before things get any worse for them vote wise.

How would the Brits react to a scenario where you have multiple elections in Ireland or a minority SF govt.? Will they call it an 'illegit' govt. in a bid to discredit FPTP so the public there don't go getting ideas about what democracy really is?

Richardbouvet
09-05-2015, 11:25 AM
That is all true apjp, but progressives must now be worried about the UK Labour party. The prevailing narrative already is that Labour "cannot win from the left." The Blairites seem to have the facts on their side when they say that Labour only wins elections when they ditch socialist policies, and always lose (as in 1992 and now) when they advance even moderately left ones.

I want to see progressives counter that argument; otherwise the Blairites are certain to retake control of the party, and under FPTP there really is no obvious alternative to Labour in England.

Apjp
09-05-2015, 11:26 AM
Morticia dear

i am now thinking you may be trying to deceive me with this spiel about how no one really knew he is a jew :)

I know you are being light hearted but to nip this in the bud it really could not have been more irrelevant other than one Tory candidate who was part Muslim made an issue of it and she was expelled afaik from the Conservative party over her public comments on 'the jew', which does not say much for the selection process of the Tories.

Miliband faced far more personal attacks about other much more disturbing things besides his Ethnicity.

They didn't need to discredit in a racist way him based on his ethnicity anyways because they never needed to stoop that low.

Half the British public saw him as Cameron light and half the public saw him as some Red under the Bed.

The former is closer to reality so I guess a sizeable proportion voted UKIP/Green(22% in total) and a sizeable proportion didn't vote. A not too small percentage would have just voted Cameron because of the EU thing, their own back pocket and the purely hysterical McCarthyite propaganda against Miliband.

Apjp
09-05-2015, 11:29 AM
8 million people didn't even register like.

That's about 20% of the voting public, right?

What was the turnout nationally and the spolied vote percentage? I have heard nothing on that and I suspect it must have been low because it hasn't been mentioned on any Irish or British website.

Apjp
09-05-2015, 11:31 AM
All I knew about his religion of origin (obviously not too relevant given the bacon sandwiches) was when someone mentioned it on here during the week. And had I been in Britain and living somewhere other than Scotland, I would have voted Labour regardless, promise [emoji2].

No if you were back in Wales would have to be the irresistible Leanne Wood or the Greens in England..

Apjp
09-05-2015, 11:32 AM
It is a travesty that is the brain-dead, eighteenth century, first-past-the-post system allows the SDLP claim 3 seats on 99,000 votes and UKIP only one seat on almost four million votes. If you were designing a new country and had to select a voting system to represent the population is a fair manner, FPTP would not even deserve a minute´s consideration.

Yep.

Anybody interested in representative democracy needs to adopt the Irish voting system.

Apjp
09-05-2015, 11:36 AM
That is all true apjp, but progressives must now be worried about the UK Labour party. The prevailing narrative already is that Labour "cannot win from the left." The Blairites seem to have the facts on their side when they say that Labour only wins elections when they ditch socialist policies, and always lose (as in 1992 and now) when they advance even moderately left ones.

I want to see progressives counter that argument; otherwise the Blairites are certain to retake control of the party, and under FPTP there really is no obvious alternative to Labour in England.

The problem is FPTP full stop.

Until that goes the English left will never be a represented voice of opposition. Just look at how many seats the Greens would get under an Irish style system-25.

The Green Party is the only leftwing party there nowadays. Forget Labour. And forget British elections until the penny drops in a decade or two with the increasingly herd like English public.

A Tory-UKIP coalition with a majority of a handful of seats would have been much more preferable than an outcome that gives this , as SB says, braindead system legitimacy because it keeps the hippies and the racists out of parliament.

Countless Brits online saying this is good news as it means UKIP are not represented. Fools.

pluralist
09-05-2015, 11:53 AM
I do not see any reasonable prospect of FPTP being ditched any time soon, sadly. It's not exactly on Cameron's wishlist.

Labour are still the second largest party and have their own reasons for resistance to reform. And it's not on the SNP's wishlist either, especially as they are now beneficiaries from it.

I am not seeing a solution part from a hard slog of a grassroots campaign persuading MP's at local level.

Slim Buddha
09-05-2015, 01:02 PM
Yep.

Anybody interested in representative democracy needs to adopt the Irish voting system.

The Irish system has significantly fewer faults FPTP. The problem in Ireland relates more to the alarming number of village idiots presented to the electorate by the political establishment.

Slim Buddha
09-05-2015, 01:04 PM
I do not see any reasonable prospect of FPTP being ditched any time soon, sadly. It's not exactly on Cameron's wishlist.

Labour are still the second largest party and have their own reasons for resistance to reform. And it's not on the SNP's wishlist either, especially as they are now beneficiaries from it.

I am not seeing a solution part from a hard slog of a grassroots campaign persuading MP's at local level.

The SNP is committed to electoral reform, having long memories of the 70 years of FPTP electoral injustice it suffered.

morticia
09-05-2015, 01:08 PM
No if you were back in Wales would have to be the irresistible Leanne Wood or the Greens in England..

[emoji23] well, to be completely honest, I would have followed my previous strategy, which was to vote to unseat or keep out the Tories. Under FPTP, you vote for the other most likely to be elected who isn't Tory. So yes, Labour, SNP, Plaid....

Apjp
09-05-2015, 01:10 PM
The Irish system has significantly fewer faults FPTP. The problem in Ireland relates more to the alarming number of village idiots presented to the electorate by the political establishment.

Agreed.

I think this actually begun changing last year and though FG/FF/Lab/Renua may scrape together a govt I can't see FG possibly increasing their seats like the Tories did under our system.

FG arrogantly believe they will do exactly that.

Apjp
09-05-2015, 01:11 PM
The SNP is committed to electoral reform, having long memories of the 70 years of FPTP electoral injustice it suffered.

:)

DCon
09-05-2015, 01:22 PM
The SNP is committed to electoral reform, having long memories of the 70 years of FPTP electoral injustice it suffered.

They would have far less Westminster seats under a fairer system though

They also have far less seats in the Scots parliament, which is mainly FTFP elected

Slim Buddha
09-05-2015, 01:41 PM
They would have far less Westminster seats under a fairer system though

They also have far less seats in the Scots parliament, which is mainly FTFP elected

Really? They have been in government in Holyrood in one form or other for the last eight years.
You are right that, today, they would have less Westminster seats. Last week, however, they only had 6 seats
so maybe their commitment to electoral reform maybe diluted, but I doubt it. John Swinney repeated it last night.
As for elections to the Scottish Parliament, elections on on the AMS model which is a hybrid of FPTP and a list system.
By no means perfect, but a slight improvement on the pure FPTP system.

Richardbouvet
09-05-2015, 02:15 PM
I agree that FPTP has done appalling damage to British politics. Thatcherism could not have happened without it, and Cameron would not now be where he is either. That is why I never cease to be amazed by the obdurate stupidity of many British lefties who continue even now to support FPTP.

The Lib Dems' crucial error in 2010 was to agree to a referendum on AV. Instead, they should have demanded that AV be brought in by Act of parliament. There was never a referendum to bring in FPTP, so there would have been nothing undemocratic about doing that.

random new yorker
09-05-2015, 03:23 PM
It is a travesty that is the brain-dead, eighteenth century, first-past-the-post system allows the SDLP claim 3 seats on 99,000 votes and UKIP only one seat on almost four million votes. If you were designing a new country and had to select a voting system to represent the population is a fair manner, FPTP would not even deserve a minute´s consideration.

ah i was puzzled about the numbers, i think Dcon posted it

(does Canada have the same system?)

bit medieval

but hey i also think a Monarchic system is medieval but they are very proud of it.

random new yorker
09-05-2015, 03:34 PM
well.. excellent discussion everyone!!

random new yorker
09-05-2015, 03:50 PM
article below is quite upsetting

i second the voices a bit shocked about british friends (left and right) showing their support for First Pass The Post cos UKIP only got one seat. Ultimately the system worked for them as it worked for SNP, it will eventually work for the Libdems again no? (if we assume there is no chance FPTP can be changed in the near future)

rny
---

7 laws the Libdems stopped the Tories from passing! (http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/7-laws-the-lib-dems-stopped-the-tories-from-passing--gkKwqOshgb)

The UK has a majority Conservative government for the first time in 20 years, and David Cameron is expected to take advantage of being freed from the ‘shackles’ of the Liberal Democrats in coalition to push through a radical Tory agenda to consolidate support among his backbenchers.

The Lib Dems were almost wiped out in the election, with Nick Clegg standing down as leader after his party lost all but eight of the 57 seats they won in 2010.

Voters might be wishing the Lib Dems were still around, however, now that the Tories are free to pass the following…

Snooper’s charter

Consistently blocked by the Lib Dems in the coalition, Cameron is expected to push through greater powers for the police to monitor internet and phone communications. Only the libertarian wing of the Tory party could prevent it becoming law.

Human Rights Act

Cameron is expected to make good on a 2010 manifesto pledge to scrap the Human Rights Act, maybe even within the first 100 days of the new government. This was a non-starter in the coalition due to the opposition of Lib Dems MPs.

Climate change

Two departments previously run by the Lib Dems, the Department for Business, and Department of Energy and Climate Change, are expected to bear the brunt of departmental spending cuts. Now that the Lib Dems are out, subsidies for offshore wind farms and other green energy supplies are likely to be slashed.

BBC

With the BBC’s royal charter to be reviewed by the end of 2016, the best the Beeb can hope for now is a licence fee freeze. But many Tories, and some influential media backers, will push the government to go much further - possibly introducing subscription based services.

Employment regulations

The Lib Dems stopped the Tories from reducing the employment rights of workers, but now the government is set to slash business regulation, merge regulators and cut costs.

Boundary review

The Lib Dems blocked Tory plans to reduce the number of the seats in the Commons from 650 to 600 - reportedly as an act of revenge for the failed AV referendum - but this will now be pushed through as a priority, making it even more difficult for Labour to get back into power in 2020.

Europe

A referendum on Britain’s EU membership is now certain to happen in 2017, and the Tories are expected to enshrine the referendum in law as soon as possible.

One silver lining for people who voted for progressive parties is that although the Tories are governing alone, Cameron’s majority is wafer-thin. Whereas before he had the help of Lib Dem MPs and a majority of 76, he now just has 10, and very rebellious backbenches to whip.

But overall, oh, Nick.

----

it will be interesting to follow what SNP does next
rny

morticia
09-05-2015, 04:06 PM
FPTP won't be abolished in the lifetime of this parliament, that's for sure. Aughh [emoji37]

Apjp
09-05-2015, 04:34 PM
Clegg was always right leaning but was relatively sane by Establishment standards.

This is truly the age of the 'Swivel eyed Nutjob' to quote one colourful poster.

Britain will be unrecognisable in 10-15 years.

morticia
09-05-2015, 09:00 PM
Clegg was always right leaning but was relatively sane by Establishment standards.

This is truly the age of the 'Swivel eyed Nutjob' to quote one colourful poster.

Britain will unrecognisable in 10-15 years.

It's utterly plausible that it won't exist, at least not as a political entity.

You're totally right though. Unrecognisable is the word.

There are a lot of British people (including my other half) who got a great start in life and a really good education, despite very underprivileged backgrounds. Thanks to Old Labour and a socialist system in the 1970s. The trap door has been closed and social mobility will become an oxymoron. Police cuts, hunger and lack of opportunity will mean spiking crime rates. And increasingly inequitable health provision will mean a U.S. Style gulf in life expectancy; something that's 80 something in wealthy Dorset and 57 in some parts of Glasgow (South Wales not far behind).

I don't know if you ever read a book called the Ragged Trousered Philanthropists (Robert Tressell, I think), but England will be back to those Edwardian slum conditions close enough. TB and all....

I can't believe the English Electorate (and yes, it's the English; the Scots and Welsh voted left/nationalist) are stupid enough to throw away the progress they've made since WwI....sure I guess I predicted this in more depressed moments, but I was praying to be wrong.

Aargh. On behalf of family, friends and relations over there, and social justice in general, I am so jarred off.

Apjp
09-05-2015, 09:16 PM
Would be interesting to see what Anglo-Irish relations would be like were Adams elected Taoiseach.

Would he raise the new snooping powers that will enhance GCHQ's spying powers over all British subjects and Irish citizens?

Kenny really is, to borrow Boris's lexicon, a 'great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jelly'.

C. Flower
09-05-2015, 09:49 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CElGGK9WEAECoUN.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEkPkyjW8AEzcPC.jpg:large


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CElgvq5WgAAzBDz.jpg:large

London tonight

DCon
09-05-2015, 09:51 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CElwFdlWgAAlu2I.jpg

random new yorker
09-05-2015, 10:02 PM
reading this:

" According to the rules of the British system, he (Cameron) has won a supposed mandate to carry out all his party's policies, even though the Tories gained the support of slightly less than 25% of the total electorate, and little more than a third of those who actually voted.

That in itself should be enough to discredit the idea that Britain is a democracy in any meaningful sense."

Article Here (http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2862451/the_real_lessons_of_the_tory_victory.html)

and asking my newly 'conservative' friend to explain ...

[.. he is supposed to be leading LibDems in Portugal and we are all pissed off about this ..]

morticia
09-05-2015, 10:32 PM
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2015/05/09/saturday-essay-it-isnt-that-difficult-to-see-why-labour-lost-the-election-but-it-is-for-the-left/

Interesting article from the Slog on why the "Ed Miller Band" lost.

He's more right wing than I am, but I think he may have most of it right. Except that I don't think the Lib Dem voters of 2010 "stayed away in droves". Those that had tactically voted for them in 2010 to keep Tories out went back to voting Labour because the Lib Dems hadn't kept them out.... a wasted vote in many of the Shires. And those ex Tory voters who had voted Lib Dem in 2010 in disgust at 500 bags of manure (Heathcote-Amory, Con) and floating duck sanctuaries (Sir Peter Viggers??) being billed to parliamentary expenses just went back to voting Tory.

Oh well, at least Sturgeon v. Cameron over the next 5 years should be vaguely amusing....

DCon
10-05-2015, 07:47 AM
More of it




Following Ed Miliband’s resignation, former home secretary Alan Johnson has said Labour’s next leader should should embrace Tony Blair’s success to make the party appeal to aspirational voters who no longer relate to it.



http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/cameron-prepares-list-of-new-all-conservative-cabinet-1.2206710

pluralist
10-05-2015, 08:06 AM
Things I learned on Twitter in the last few days: Ed Milliband is both a Marxist and a secret Tory.

Apjp
10-05-2015, 11:47 AM
Things I learned on Twitter in the last few days: Ed Milliband is both a Marxist and a secret Tory.

:)

Fraxinus
10-05-2015, 11:49 AM
It's utterly plausible that it won't exist, at least not as a political entity.

You're totally right though. Unrecognisable is the word.

There are a lot of British people (including my other half) who got a great start in life and a really good education, despite very underprivileged backgrounds. Thanks to Old Labour and a socialist system in the 1970s. The trap door has been closed and social mobility will become an oxymoron. Police cuts, hunger and lack of opportunity will mean spiking crime rates. And increasingly inequitable health provision will mean a U.S. Style gulf in life expectancy; something that's 80 something in wealthy Dorset and 57 in some parts of Glasgow (South Wales not far behind).

I don't know if you ever read a book called the Ragged Trousered Philanthropists (Robert Tressell, I think), but England will be back to those Edwardian slum conditions close enough. TB and all....

I can't believe the English Electorate (and yes, it's the English; the Scots and Welsh voted left/nationalist) are stupid enough to throw away the progress they've made since WwI....sure I guess I predicted this in more depressed moments, but I was praying to be wrong.

Aargh. On behalf of family, friends and relations over there, and social justice in general, I am so jarred off.

It really is a sad state of affairs for people in Britain. Going more in the direction of the US by the day.
You're right...why on earth would the Tories give up the Fptp system? And I'd be sceptical of the level of the public outcry for reform.
On the Labour issue....I'd love to know what percentage of traditional Labour areas are actually registered to vote. Could Labour's problems for the past 3 decades be that a large proportion of working class, lower middle and young people don't vote? Meaning they then have to try and steal votes from the centre and right of? The trade union movement also seems to be non existent and even more powerless than here. Throw on top of that a national post colonial and industrial identity crisis that appears to have manifested itself in England.
This maybe a problem for the left in a broad European sense and probably always in Ireland, that they can't seem to adapt or gain sufficient support in the absence of industry....a society where class lines are muddied.

On the hopes of FG here...I hate to say it but I think they could compete very strongly in the next election as the Tories did...can't see a majority happening of course. Labour will lose their support but those who benefit from the rise in the tide will be grateful to FG.

Apjp
10-05-2015, 12:05 PM
They will definitely lose about 20 odd seats that much is a given.

I don't think people are that much happier than they were last summer or during the many by elections late last year.

FG have won like 2/7 by elections, in one case due to a sympathy vote in Red neck Meath East, and in another case because of parish pumpism.

If they lose Carlow to FF or SF it's truly squeaky bum time.

DCon
10-05-2015, 02:44 PM
Tory Cabinet taking shape



Michael Gove has been brought back to a frontline Cabinet role to oversee Conservative plans to scrap the Human Rights Act.

The former Chief Whip has been appointed as Justice Secretary. His government department will be where plans will be drawn up to replace the European legislation with a British Bill of Rights.

It comes as Mr Cameron launches a 100-day policy push in which he will rework Britain's relationship with Brussels, redraw constituency boundaries and introduce his five-year tax freeze.



http://news.sky.com/story/1480979/michael-gove-to-become-new-justice-secretary

morticia
10-05-2015, 04:06 PM
I never want to give FG credit for much, but I don't think they'd go so far as to scrap the human rights act, surely? Just what excuses are the Tories using for this? Disgraceful.

@ Fraxinus, sure you're right in that older Tories are more likely to vote. I'm not quite so sure the England issue is an identity crisis exactly. Southern England is full of concern that welfare money is going to "wasters", there's too much going on welfare, and if taxes go up, they won't be able to afford a house in the catchment areas of good schools. So they see tax raises, not in compassionate terms, but in terms of the "less deserving" taking from the "more deserving". What they are not seeing is that the system itself sucks and they are the ones perpetuating it, but hey ho.

Many people are living from one month to the next, wages are more insecure, but they are choosing to vote along the lines of "tax rises would crucify me" rather than "end austerity and make us all better off.

Then there's the perception (inaccurate) that immigrants and racial minorities take the lions share of the welfare bill and they don't want to pay for "them". And then there's the class system; people want to be seen, perhaps to be voting for the party of the prosperous, not the needy, to bolster their own sense of status.

Then there's the fact that England is actually a very conservative place, more so than here in many ways, and many of the unPC have decided they've had enough of gay and feminist and minority rights being shoved down their throats by the Labour Party.

And don't start the little Englanders on the Scots; they're apparently helping themselves to taxes from hard pressed little Englanders to cut uni bills and provide a better Scottish NHS....living beyond their means, apparently.

So I'd fully expect Cameron to hand Sturgeon full tax raising powers and enjoy the chaos when Holyrood can't balance the welfare/NHS bill. Thereby ensuring SNP unpopularity, he thinks.

I just hope Nicola Sturgeon is cleverer than he is.....

pluralist
10-05-2015, 04:30 PM
I never want to give FG credit for much, but I don't think they'd go so far as to scrap the human rights act, surely? Just what excuses are the Tories using for this? Disgraceful.

It was in their manifesto. They're not really scrapping it but replacing it with a bill of rights. Some say it won't really make much difference, it's just some red meat for the Eurosceptic right. The right have always said Cameron was secretly glad to be in coalition with the Liberal Democrats as it gave him cover for not doing things that he didn't want to do anyway.


@ Fraxinus, sure you're right in that older Tories are more likely to vote. I'm not quite so sure the England issue is an identity crisis exactly. Southern England is full of concern that welfare money is going to "wasters", there's too much going on welfare, and if taxes go up, they won't be able to afford a house in the catchment areas of good schools. So they see tax raises, not in compassionate terms, but in terms of the "less deserving" taking from the "more deserving". What they are not seeing is that the system itself sucks and they are the ones perpetuating it, but hey ho.

I reckon the London real estate market is built on a house of cards and whichever party is in government when it bursts is in trouble. Mind you, I would have said that eight years ago.

Donal Og
10-05-2015, 04:33 PM
Scotland pays more tax per capita I believe. Has done for 30 years odd.

Welfare: 80% + goes on the elderly.

Debt to GDP = 90% , same as it was in the 60s. It was 240% in the early 50s - when Tory govts were building vast numbers of council houses.
So why couldn't Labour make its case? I still think they are petrified of the Media and City of London. They don't need another Blair clone , that's for sure. Sucking up to the city is what led to 2008. Another Nye Bevan would do. Would to God we had one here in Ireland.

pluralist
10-05-2015, 04:38 PM
Scotland pays more tax per capita I believe. Has done for 30 years odd.

Welfare: 80% + goes on the elderly.

Debt to GDP = 90% , same as it was in the 60s. It was 240% in the early 50s - when Tory govts were building vast numbers of council houses.
So why couldn't Labour make its case? I still think they are petrified of the Media and City of London. They don't need another Blair clone , that's for sure. Sucking up to the city is what led to 2008. Another Nye Bevan would do. Would to God we had one here in Ireland.

The hysteria over government debt is indeed over the top. It takes a few minutes on the net to verify that. Troubling that Labour couldn't manage it and get message across.

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2012/06/uk-debt-gdp.png

The UK has pursued a policy of quantitative easing combined with austerity for several years now. As someone put it to me, this is akin to trying to drive a car with your feet on both the accelerator and brake pedal.

pluralist
10-05-2015, 07:10 PM
Cameron's majority is less than any of Blair's or Thatcher's and roughly on a par with Major's in 1992.

Nevertheless, I just have this fear that the Labour party will tear itself apart, much as the Conservatives did from 1990-2005 or so.

Dr. FIVE
10-05-2015, 07:34 PM
very good read on the opinion polls

https://opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/shaun-lawson/polls-and-all-but-one-of-forecasts-were-wrong-ed-miliband-was-nowhere-near-b

morticia
10-05-2015, 08:11 PM
The hysteria over UK govt debt is not entirely overblown when you consider that the PFI debt is hidden and off books. That practically doubled their debt when added to the total in 2006, according to the Guardian. Unlike the official debt, though, that wasn't expanded during the crisis, the Govt shelved it, but it is probably still considerable.

Since Tony Bliar and his wars are one of the reasons I stopped voting Lab in 2003, I am not entirely sure a clone of him would be such a good idea.

Yes, I too am afraid Lab will shred themselves over the next 5 years; awful pity as a combo of La Sturgeon and Brexit is likely to kill both the UK and the English economy.

Best strategy might just be to sit back and watch Cam n co eff up royally, but the 24/7 news cycle types in modern politics tend not to have the patience...

Apjp
10-05-2015, 10:09 PM
It was in their manifesto. They're not really scrapping it but replacing it with a bill of rights. Some say it won't really make much difference, it's just some red meat for the Eurosceptic right. The right have always said Cameron was secretly glad to be in coalition with the Liberal Democrats as it gave him cover for not doing things that he didn't want to do anyway.



I reckon the London real estate market is built on a house of cards and whichever party is in government when it bursts is in trouble. Mind you, I would have said that eight years ago.

I don't believe for a second that Cameron cares one way or the other about Human Rights. He wasn't so concerned about them when bombing Libya, Syria and Iraq to bits.

Anyways Boris and pals will plot a coup before long if he tries to keep them in the EU so we may have some good showbiz baby showbiz splitting type times ahead soon if Alex Salmond and others have it right.

pluralist
10-05-2015, 10:27 PM
Anyways Boris and pals will plot a coup before long if he tries to keep them in the EU so we may have some good showbiz baby showbiz splitting type times ahead soon if Alex Salmond and others have it right.

?

Apjp
10-05-2015, 11:41 PM
?

Salmond reckons the Tory Majority will erode within months.

I would reckon things will not come to head until about the time of the EU referendum in 2017. Johnson is after the Leadership and his term as London Mayor ends next year(pure jobbery that one, he should have resigned upon election, which is the norm even in Ireland these days, not to hold two political offices at once).

I think what people are bemoaning are the actual vote itself and the lack of even a centre left alternative.

The majority Cameron can now govern with has actually been reduced substantially and including Ulster Unionists will only give him more headaches, not less.

I suppose he can always go back to the Rump Lib Dems for political cover, in every sense of the phrase, if 10-12 Tories revolt.

morticia
11-05-2015, 11:07 AM
The rump Lib Dems would be utterly stupid to go back in with Cameron, so one lives in hope that Salmond (and you) are correct and they'll disintegrate within a year....

Fraxinus
11-05-2015, 12:34 PM
As the article says...potential trouble ahead if Human Rights Act abolished regarding Scotland and the Good Friday Agreement...
https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/there-may-be-trouble-ahead-2/

C. Flower
11-05-2015, 01:06 PM
As the article says...potential trouble ahead if Human Rights Act abolished regarding Scotland and the Good Friday Agreement...
https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/there-may-be-trouble-ahead-2/


One way and another, there are going to be ructions under this government.

Donal Og
11-05-2015, 05:27 PM
One way and another, there are going to be ructions under this government.

You are spot on there. Especially if the Europhobes put the boot in. That could leave Cams at the mercy of the DUP. Of course he'd have a huge majority if SNP gave him even tacit support. Hard to see why they would so far though.
Meanwhile Gove is the new Justice guy. He thinks the paedophile stuff should be swept under the carpet.
And the minister of equality who voted against gay marriage. Then we have Heinrich Himmler at social welfare. Or is it IDS? So confusing.:(

pluralist
11-05-2015, 05:55 PM
You are spot on there. Especially if the Europhobes put the boot in. That could leave Cams at the mercy of the DUP. Of course he'd have a huge majority if SNP gave him even tacit support. Hard to see why they would so far though.
Meanwhile Gove is the new Justice guy. He thinks the paedophile stuff should be swept under the carpet.
And the minister of equality who voted against gay marriage. Then we have Heinrich Himmler at social welfare. Or is it IDS? So confusing.:(

John Whittingdale is Minister for Media, Sport & Culture not Minister for Equality, though culture vulture types do tend to be social liberals, so he seems an odd choice. Incidentally, without wanting to play 'guilt by assocation', he is half-brother to this guy:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/548566/Half-brother-of-Tory-MP-John-Whittingdale-jailed-for-historic-abuse

morticia
11-05-2015, 07:09 PM
And on the subject of the lovely Michael Gove, Justice, some Facebook posts are alleging he's in favour of bringing back hanging....describing this lot as dinosaurs is actually unfair to the dinos....

Dr. FIVE
12-05-2015, 01:01 AM
knives out in Scotland

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/scottish-labour-inside-the-campaign-from-hell.125560928

morticia
12-05-2015, 07:09 PM
Well, for once, the Tories have actually come out with a policy I can agree with;

Planning to lengthen the school day to reflect the needs of working parents and shorten the school holidays such that annual leave can cope with them.

Now we'll see how their teachers unions react?

There's one Enda could learn from.

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jan/30/lengthen-school-days-cut-holidays-tory-adviser

DCon
12-05-2015, 07:43 PM
Well, for once, the Tories have actually come out with a policy I can agree with;

Planning to lengthen the school day to reflect the needs of working parents and shorten the school holidays such that annual leave can cope with them.

Now we'll see how their teachers unions react?

There's one Enda could learn from.

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jan/30/lengthen-school-days-cut-holidays-tory-adviser

The article is quite old

Is this being rehashed?

morticia
12-05-2015, 07:53 PM
Possibly; picked it up on Facebook [emoji6]

DCon
12-05-2015, 08:09 PM
Possibly; picked it up on Facebook [emoji6]

maybe the nasty lib dems resisted and now it is a tory free for all it is being brought up again