PDA

View Full Version : Labour in 2016 election -poll



barrym
07-12-2012, 12:57 PM
How many seats? Who will survive? Where will the votes go?

OK, all speculation, but after budget 2013 what will happen in 2016?

Holly
07-12-2012, 02:51 PM
The logical home for life-long Labour voters is now Sinn Féin or Independent.

C. Flower
07-12-2012, 03:20 PM
The logical home for life-long Labour voters is now Sinn Féin or Independent.


There are distinct possibilities of a new left formation.

The ULA is hanging in by a thread, and there are a lot of unattached leftists, and even disaffected Labour people.

Richardbouvet
07-12-2012, 03:47 PM
Labour party members are not as suicidally stupid as Green party members were.

There is a lot of time for things to happen in the party between now and 2016, so there is no point in writing Labour off 3 years ahead in the way this poll implies it should be.

There will probably be a massacre in the local elections. If Gilmore is not gone by then, he probably will go soon after.

unspecific
07-12-2012, 03:55 PM
Labour party members are not as suicidally stupid as Green party members were.

There is a lot of time for things to happen in the party between now and 2016, so there is no point in writing Labour off 3 years ahead in the way this poll implies it should be.

There will probably be a massacre in the local elections. If Gilmore is not gone by then, he probably will go soon after.

The Labour Party do this once a decade, regular as clockwork. No interest in anything beyond the acquisition of seats and power at any cost.

The Greens to be fair only ever did that once.

fluffybiscuits
07-12-2012, 03:57 PM
There are distinct possibilities of a new left formation.

The ULA is hanging in by a thread, and there are a lot of unattached leftists, and even disaffected Labour people.

ULA should be chasing the disenfranchised Labour vote and looking to take it from them. Carers, single parents, unemployed and especially trade union members are all wandering around pondering who to vote for . About time the ULA got it together to think about a long term strategy or at least one that will work for the people and get tehm into a better position.

fluffybiscuits
07-12-2012, 03:58 PM
Labour party members are not as suicidally stupid as Green party members were.

There is a lot of time for things to happen in the party between now and 2016, so there is no point in writing Labour off 3 years ahead in the way this poll implies it should be.

There will probably be a massacre in the local elections. If Gilmore is not gone by then, he probably will go soon after.

If the four members of Labour like Keaveney and Co can jump ship and steer the Labour ship into the opposition they may just save themselves but failing that they might go the way of the Greens or the PD's...

disability student
07-12-2012, 04:23 PM
Gimme more couldn't look at Shortall when he spoke says volumes.

Old labour stickies such as Gimme More, Rabbitte, Howlin don't give a fig about their own party.

Their aim in terms of career in politics was careerist and getting the holy grail-Gold plated pensions.

A local from Wexford town commented to me that he saw Howlin in a local shop. It struck him that locals avoided him and didn't want to speak to him after what Howlin did re budget.

Shaadi
07-12-2012, 05:00 PM
Labour party members are not as suicidally stupid as Green party members were.

There is a lot of time for things to happen in the party between now and 2016, so there is no point in writing Labour off 3 years ahead in the way this poll implies it should be.

There will probably be a massacre in the local elections. If Gilmore is not gone by then, he probably will go soon after.There's only one way that Labour in power are heading and that's into minority party status. That "every little hurts" poster is an overwhelming demonstration of Labour's dishonesty and insincerity. The game is up, the emperor has no clothes, they've got a role as defenders of the PS that'll prevent them from disappearing at the next GE.

Where to from there! With clear and permanent electoral daylight between Labour and FG/FF/SF by 2016, Labour will become an irrelevance and one that'll be unforgiven. There's no economic upturn that can come between now and 2016 that'll prevent three more Thatcherite budgets and three Thatcherite budgets that'll have Labour's "lifestyle choices" of the right wing leadership all over them.

Burton doing her Thatcher impression, Howlin putting the PS ahead of Welfare and nobody swallowing the no cuts to basic SW rates line that's hiding the creation of a Thatcherite poverty mountain.

These are revolutionary times, parties should be coming into existence on the Left and Right to fill the void. A breakaway Labour party would have a better long-term future than the current one.

unspecific
07-12-2012, 05:44 PM
These are revolutionary times, parties should be coming into existence on the Left and Right to fill the void. A breakaway Labour party would have a better long-term future than the current one.

Any breakaway would have to have a political difference in programme and method for there to be any difference ie, parish-pump handwringers on either side of the Dail is of no use to anyone. Simply sell-outs in waiting to go with the sell-outs-in-action.

Greengoddess
07-12-2012, 06:38 PM
Labour party members are not as suicidally stupid as Green party members were.

There is a lot of time for things to happen in the party between now and 2016, so there is no point in writing Labour off 3 years ahead in the way this poll implies it should be.

There will probably be a massacre in the local elections. If Gilmore is not gone by then, he probably will go soon after.

I agree . But I don't think then government will last until 2016.

morticia
07-12-2012, 10:57 PM
I agree . But I don't think then government will last until 2016.

The problem is, there are no credible successors. Who would take over?

Mick Tully
07-12-2012, 11:11 PM
The vote starts off at ten, a bit hopeful there.

Greengoddess
07-12-2012, 11:13 PM
The problem is, there are no credible successors. Who would take over?

A quote from Shaadi on another thread


Originally Posted by Shaadi
An election takes its place or a minority FG Govt takes its place. An election will bring two options FF/FG or FF/SF/Lab.

Option A will get stuck in and fix the deficit by cutting the PS and by following a similar Joan Burtonesque line on the welfare system. The advantage of option A is that the PS unions can fight the unjust cuts and be exposed if they fight the corner of the PS top brass who need an almighty kick in the **** as far as the public are concerned. Option A will be more efficient than the current arrangement and will allow for the creation of a proper Left/Right divide in Irish politics. Option A would see Labour retain 25 seats in a snap election and keep them on a par with SF and guarantee Labour's survival and probable regrowth.

Option B will be a centre-left Govt that'll have a Left wing majority of SF/Labour calling the shots over the FF pragmatists who are quite capable of swinging to the left. Option B will be capable of taxing the wealthy while following the CPA line with the PS and using the wealth taxes to alleviate some of the pain for the SW class. Option B keeps Labour on a par with SF and FF, even if the Govt declines in popularity over its term, Labour will still be in touch with the other two.

As Labour are pension hungry and deluded enough to think that their blatantly transparent hand-wringing is enough to fool the public, they will carry on until it's too late and bring us to a point where either FF/FG or FF/SF/INDs take over in 2015-16. Thus leaving the new Govt with the heavy work having already been done and five years to get the country back on its feet, while Labour struggle for relevance and survival on 10% or less support.

Andrew49
08-12-2012, 09:32 AM
I think FG/Lab will sweep the next election as they did the GE in 2011. They've shown themselves to be the loyal poodles of the ECB/IMF/Frankfurt cabal and that will bring rewards for them. I think the number of seats each of them get this time will be much more even. Fine Gael will lose more seats than Labour - and Labour will - in all likelihood - make gains. So no change there.

The big battleground will be on the turf SF and FF hold or hope to hold. I expect blood to be spilled here - and copiously so. Mangy dogs like Fianna Fail - who have been around for a good while - need a couple of savagings before expiration and Sinn Fein are the only ones with the teeth to do that.

Mick Tully
08-12-2012, 10:22 AM
I think FG/Lab will sweep the next election as they did the GE in 2011. They've shown themselves to be the loyal poodles of the ECB/IMF/Frankfurt cabal and that will bring rewards for them. I think the number of seats each of them get this time will be much more even. Fine Gael will lose more seats than Labour - and Labour will - in all likelihood - make gains. So no change there.

The big battleground will be on the turf SF and FF hold or hope to hold. I expect blood to be spilled here - and copiously so. Mangy dogs like Fianna Fail - who have been around for a good while - need a couple of savagings before expiration and Sinn Fein are the only ones with the teeth to do that.

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRla87KGueyiIx8cYptKd3GVvW8tExdh JJF-qQo-iEUhYXuKDEO

Shaadi
08-12-2012, 10:22 AM
I think FG/Lab will sweep the next election as they did the GE in 2011. They've shown themselves to be the loyal poodles of the ECB/IMF/Frankfurt cabal and that will bring rewards for them. I think the number of seats each of them get this time will be much more even. Fine Gael will lose more seats than Labour - and Labour will - in all likelihood - make gains. So no change there.

The big battleground will be on the turf SF and FF hold or hope to hold. I expect blood to be spilled here - and copiously so. Mangy dogs like Fianna Fail - who have been around for a good while - need a couple of savagings before expiration and Sinn Fein are the only ones with the teeth to do that.GE 2007 FG 27.3%, Labour 10.1%.

Economic collapse.

GE 2011 FG 36.1%, Labour 19.4%.

One harsh budget => bit of grumbling but still in honeymoon period.

Red C November 2012 FG 28%, Labour 14%.

2nd harsh budget December 2012=> went down like a lead baloon.

2013=>2016 more harsh budgets, un-meetable growth projections and no goodwill for the Govt.

GE 2016=> FG 25%, FF 23%, SF 21%, Others 21%, Labour 10%.

Andrew49
08-12-2012, 11:00 AM
GE 2007 FG 27.3%, Labour 10.1%.

Economic collapse.

GE 2011 FG 36.1%, Labour 19.4%.

One harsh budget => bit of grumbling but still in honeymoon period.

Red C November 2012 FG 28%, Labour 14%.

2nd harsh budget December 2012=> went down like a lead baloon.

2013=>2016 more harsh budgets, un-meetable growth projections and no goodwill for the Govt.

GE 2016=> FG 25%, FF 23%, SF 21%, Others 21%, Labour 10%.

How many of that 21% are natural cohabitants with FG? I can only see transfers going to FG from within this (21%) group.

Shaadi
08-12-2012, 11:27 AM
How many of that 21% are natural cohabitants with FG? I can only see transfers going to FG from within this (21%) group.The rise of Independents is down to the demise of FF, the portion of the traditional FF 40%+ block that has deserted them and couldn't stomach voting for FG went IND. The others in that others block on the extreme left despise FG by instinct. That others block will take seats all over the place, particularly in rural Ireland.

FGs core vote was 22% on 2002, they are the Millwall of Irish politics, they're hated by most of the others and they don't care.

FG will pick up some FF transfers and some Labour transfers, but the protest vote others block will be lean pickings for them and surprisingly fertile for SF/FF. Besides that, the anti-FG/Lab sentiment in 2015-16 at 60%+ will push transfers the way of the FF/SF/Others block in the same way the anti-FF vote pushed transfers towards FG/Lab in 2011 which gave FG/Lab an unrepeatable seat boost.

At a now combined 42%, they are already dead in the water electorally and would be unable to form a Govt without the help of 6 to 10 Inds if there were an election now.

Baron von Biffo
08-12-2012, 12:29 PM
I agree . But I don't think then government will last until 2016.

Even without any pressure it was never likely that they would hang on until 2016 as that would mean another February election. Summer/Autumn of 2015 is probably the latest time for the next GE.

Just as an aside - The government does have the option of legislating to extend the term of the Dail beyond 5 years but given its unpopularity that probably wouldn't be politically possible.

barrym
08-12-2012, 02:32 PM
Gimme more couldn't look at Shortall when he spoke says volumes.

Old labour stickies such as Gimme More, Rabbitte, Howlin don't give a fig about their own party.

Their aim in terms of career in politics was careerist and getting the holy grail-Gold plated pensions.

A local from Wexford town commented to me that he saw Howlin in a local shop. It struck him that locals avoided him and didn't want to speak to him after what Howlin did re budget.

+ 1 on the first three points.

However it is my experience that people don't want to be seen sucking up to TDs etc., they do that 'offline' - that way no one knows you got the job/permission/grant/pension whatever, through the TD, although everyone knows ye did.

barrym
08-12-2012, 02:44 PM
Any breakaway would have to have a political difference in programme and method for there to be any difference ie, parish-pump handwringers on either side of the Dail is of no use to anyone. Simply sell-outs in waiting to go with the sell-outs-in-action.

Well said.

My vision is of every TD using the period between now and 2016 to duck for cover and try desperately to save their skins, except of course those who will use the gold plated pension to bow out - Rabbitte?? McGinley, and several others.

Realistically, the present system is unshakeable. Look at your own constituency and ask yourself, honestly, who will go, who will stay and what new faces/parties there will be.

New parties?? Too late already, mores the pity, though. Like others here, I've no idea what a new party that would make a difference would look like.

barrym
08-12-2012, 02:51 PM
Even without any pressure it was never likely that they would hang on until 2016 as that would mean another February election. Summer/Autumn of 2015 is probably the latest time for the next GE.

Just as an aside - The government does have the option of legislating to extend the term of the Dail beyond 5 years but given its unpopularity that probably wouldn't be politically possible.

VERY surprised that a serving politician should suggest that. The largest majority ever? No, skin saving and ensuring we do the term for the pension will see them through to 2016.

What's the betting on ANY ONE of the presently whipped members voting on Tues/Wed/Thursday next agin the bills - Social Welfare and Property Tax??

Not enough people outside the Dail gates (in the cold) to have any affect. How many of the ditch hurlers on here even contemplated being there?? I'm excused, out of the country working, otherwise I swear....

barrym
08-12-2012, 03:40 PM
The rise of Independents is down to the demise of FF, the portion of the traditional FF 40%+ block that has deserted them and couldn't stomach voting for FG went IND. The others in that others block on the extreme left despise FG by instinct. That others block will take seats all over the place, particularly in rural Ireland.
...
At a now combined 42%, they are already dead in the water electorally and would be unable to form a Govt without the help of 6 to 10 Inds if there were an election now.

OK, so the "bottom line" is the inds hold the balance of power.

In a 2016 election, how many of the present inds will survive?

All?? maybe not, but will there be many more? I don't think so, rural Ireland is VERY conservative, only former big party guys and gals get elected as inds, more or less. All politics is local was coined to describe rural Ireland.

Either way there is some interesting speculative stuff in the potential coalitions.

I feel that FF won't get enough recovery momentum to be in the running, but this lot have shown world class incompetence, one never knows.

Shaadi
08-12-2012, 05:18 PM
OK, so the "bottom line" is the inds hold the balance of power.

In a 2016 election, how many of the present inds will survive?

All?? maybe not, but will there be many more? I don't think so, rural Ireland is VERY conservative, only former big party guys and gals get elected as inds, more or less. All politics is local was coined to describe rural Ireland.

Either way there is some interesting speculative stuff in the potential coalitions.

I feel that FF won't get enough recovery momentum to be in the running, but this lot have shown world class incompetence, one never knows.The Inds would hold the balance of power if there were an election now. Rural Ireland uses Inds to protest and rural Ireland is mighty teed off, I expect Inds to take seats that people expect FF or FG to take as their right.

You'd have to go through it constituency by constituency to figure out how the Inds stand on the ground, but I can't see any off the top of my head who'd be in danger, Wallace maybe and Shane Ross is in a very volatile constituency.

All the soft Labour and FG gains will be reversed, Canney should topple Labour's Keaveney in Galway East, and those that have jumped ship in Labour and FG should get elected ahead of their fomer party colleagues.

I don't know what to make of FFs seeming recovery, but if you were a conservative FF voter before and saw how this crowd are behaving, why wouldn't you switch back? FFs biggest advantage this time will be that they can target their candidates to maximum advantage without having to run too many incumbents which killed them last time and which will kill FG/LAB this time.

homer
08-12-2012, 05:52 PM
Gimme more couldn't look at Shortall when he spoke says volumes.

Old labour stickies such as Gimme More, Rabbitte, Howlin don't give a fig about their own party.

Their aim in terms of career in politics was careerist and getting the holy grail-Gold plated pensions.

A local from Wexford town commented to me that he saw Howlin in a local shop. It struck him that locals avoided him and didn't want to speak to him after what Howlin did re budget.

I thought Howlin was trad Labour rather than a stickie?

Greengoddess
08-12-2012, 06:02 PM
I thought Howlin was trad Labour rather than a stickie?

Correct.

disability student
08-12-2012, 06:17 PM
I thought Howlin was trad Labour rather than a stickie?

Sorry my mistake, you are correct on Howlin a trad Lab;)

Greengoddess
08-12-2012, 08:15 PM
Sorry my mistake, you are correct on Howlin a trad Lab;)

That emoticon is somewhat ambiguous .....

unspecific
09-12-2012, 02:42 AM
Well said.

My vision is of every TD using the period between now and 2016 to duck for cover and try desperately to save their skins, except of course those who will use the gold plated pension to bow out - Rabbitte?? McGinley, and several others.

Realistically, the present system is unshakeable. Look at your own constituency and ask yourself, honestly, who will go, who will stay and what new faces/parties there will be.

New parties?? Too late already, mores the pity, though. Like others here, I've no idea what a new party that would make a difference would look like.

Well it's quite clear whats necessary - a new mass organization built on class politics that isn't afraid to challenge class society/capitalism/is anticapitalist. One that doesn't count its worth by the number of seats it has or its bank balance. This isn't a crisis of particularly amoral personalities by unfortunate coincidence are in the levers of power - it's a crisis of capitalism. Actually-Existing-Capitalism is the problem.

However, all attempts to build narrow avowedly marxist sects(I dont use the term to offend) have failed and aren't up to the job(though are still vital)

Crucially, Official Social Democracy doesn't even seek to reform its way to a postcapitalist society either(a la postwar Old Labour) but is now firmly entrenched as the liberal party of upper middle classes, quite happy to throw the working class on a bonfire to keep neoliberalism and international finance going!

So, politically, the space is rooted in the now unrepresented working class who seek a society that works for them(as opposed to a bankers state that works for bankers) with a broad programme similar to the ULA's programme which allows revolutionaries and reformists to work together and most importantly to bring layers of new people into activism.

And vitally the new organization's method has to develop ordinary folk into activists (not just accumulate funding and paper members. Develop activists who organize, agitate, educate etc in campaigns in workplaces, in unions, in social movements in the streets and actually mobilizes tens of thousands and fights for causes. A weapon for the working class that is fit-for-purpose in the *raging* class war going on all around.

Never again to propping up the Right. Never again to social partnership. Develop class politics(which is what a left-right divide is).

Never again to a corrupt political culture of lobbying, handwringing and cheap opportunistic ploys of resigning the whip until after the election in order to keep their own little fiefdom and employment intact.

Holly
09-12-2012, 12:16 PM
What is meant by the term "sticky"?

barrym
09-12-2012, 12:43 PM
Well it's quite clear whats necessary - a new mass organization built on class politics that isn't afraid to challenge class society/capitalism/is anticapitalist. One that doesn't count its worth by the number of seats it has or its bank balance. This isn't a crisis of particularly amoral personalities by unfortunate coincidence are in the levers of power - it's a crisis of capitalism. Actually-Existing-Capitalism is the problem.

With due respect, that is pie in the sky politics.

There hasn't been any movement on those issues since Lenin and, unfortunately, there isn't likely to be, Putin for one will make sure of that, backed by Berlisconi, et al., strange bedfellows I know but with a common purpose - look after me and my friends.

One of the oldest political statements of faith is "bread and circuses" - followed by the mushroom theory - "keep them in the dark and throw them plenty of ****" Both are alive and well.There is far more discussion in the media about "fooball" and plenty of ****.

So, what can we do? There has to be much more direct interaction with the personnel. Attending public meetings where political figures congregate and asking the direct questions. Oh, I know there are few enough occasions, but they must be used, to make politicians aware there are voters out there that actually think things should change.

Apropos, persuade everyone you know to register to vote and use their vote. Ireland has a relatively good spread of voters but it needs to be increased, especially by younger voters.

Longer term, allowing postal and other forms of remote voting, moves towards a constitutional change to create compulsory voting. I know, I know, it is extreme, it is dirigiste, etc., but the alternative is more of the present trend, reduction in % vote, leading pols to concentrate on those who will vote for their viewpoint and spend party money on cars to the polling station.

jmcc
09-12-2012, 01:08 PM
What is meant by the term "sticky"?Official Sinn Fein/Sinn Fein The Workers Party, Sinn Fein The Peoples Front of Judea, Sinn Fein The Popular Front of Dunlaoghaire, Democratic Left, Democracy Left Behind. Basically it got the name "Stickies" because at Easter, it used to sell stick-on Easter Lillies whereas Sinn Fein used to sell pin-on Easter Lillies (to commemorate the 1916 Rising).

Regards...jmcc

unspecific
09-12-2012, 01:21 PM
With due respect, that is pie in the sky politics.

There hasn't been any movement on those issues since Lenin and, unfortunately, there isn't likely to be, Putin for one will make sure of that, backed by Berlisconi, et al., strange bedfellows I know but with a common purpose - look after me and my friends.

"Those issues"? Do you mean class-based society? Capitalism? The capitalism that's falling down all around us? How on Earth could any new leftwing party - not even a revolutionary one - ignore that? What's the purpose of the new party? SYRIZA in Greece is a model to investigate.


One of the oldest political statements of faith is "bread and circuses" - followed by the mushroom theory - "keep them in the dark and throw them plenty of ****" Both are alive and well.There is far more discussion in the media about "fooball" and plenty of ****.

So, what can we do? There has to be much more direct interaction with the personnel. Attending public meetings where political figures congregate and asking the direct questions. Oh, I know there are few enough occasions, but they must be used, to make politicians aware there are voters out there that actually think things should change.

Apropos, persuade everyone you know to register to vote and use their vote. Ireland has a relatively good spread of voters but it needs to be increased, especially by younger voters.

Longer term, allowing postal and other forms of remote voting, moves towards a constitutional change to create compulsory voting. I know, I know, it is extreme, it is dirigiste, etc., but the alternative is more of the present trend, reduction in % vote, leading pols to concentrate on those who will vote for their viewpoint and spend party money on cars to the polling station.

But, why are people not voting? Who are not voting? The working class. Because every party they vote for gets in and dumps all the attacks on them. I think Labour's stated strategy is actually to target all the cuts on those who don't vote anyway. So compulsory voting and even some sort of constitutional change isn't an "extreme" solution, in fact its no solution at all. You have to start flexing the ol' brain muscles and have some analyses, a method and a strategy.

jmcc
09-12-2012, 01:25 PM
As the old Labour song goes: The working class can kiss my ass as I've got a minister's job at last? :) Ireland is not Greece in that it is more conservative. It has more conservative parties than Leftist parties.

Regards...jmcc

Holly
09-12-2012, 02:00 PM
Official Sinn Fein/Sinn Fein The Workers Party, Sinn Fein The Peoples Front of Judea, Sinn Fein The Popular Front of Dunlaoghaire, Democratic Left, Democracy Left Behind. Basically it got the name "Stickies" because at Easter, it used to sell stick-on Easter Lillies whereas Sinn Fein used to sell pin-on Easter Lillies (to commemorate the 1916 Rising).

Regards...jmcc

Thanks for the answer but I couldn't possibly begin to keep track of all those names and it does not enlighten me as to what it stands for politically.

Greengoddess
09-12-2012, 02:04 PM
Thanks for the answer but I couldn't possibly begin to keep track of all those names and it does not enlighten me as to what it stands for politically.
A really neat thing called "democratic centralism", whereby a decision is made at the centre and very unpleasant things happen if subsequent disagreements occur . For this reason , FG liked being in coalition with DL because they were " reliable".

Saoirse go Deo
09-12-2012, 02:11 PM
As the old Labour song goes: The working class can kiss my ass as I've got a minister's job at last? :) Ireland is not Greece in that it is more conservative. It has more conservative parties than Leftist parties.

Regards...jmcc
Speaking of labour sing songs, at the labour youth conference they sang "I'd rather be a sellout than a trot"

C. Flower
09-12-2012, 02:18 PM
Thanks for the answer but I couldn't possibly begin to keep track of all those names and it does not enlighten me as to what it stands for politically.

I recommend the book "The Lost Revolution" if you would like to try to find your way around the political conundrum that is "the Workers' Party."
It will give you a history of the Party that friends and enemies seem to accept as reasonably accurate.

After reading it, I am still unsure I could say "what they stand for politically" but it appears to me to act at times as some kind of prop from within the Labour Movement of the State (both British and Irish).

But perhaps someone could give another explanation for the Party's actions.

There are a lot of people much better equipped to answer this than I am.

C. Flower
09-12-2012, 02:19 PM
Speaking of labour sing songs, at the labour youth conference they sang "I'd rather be a sellout than a trot"

Well, that had the virtue of being honest :)

C. Flower
09-12-2012, 02:22 PM
A really neat thing called "democratic centralism", whereby a decision is made at the centre and very unpleasant things happen if subsequent disagreements occur . For this reason , FG liked being in coalition with DL because they were " reliable".

It is a defective model, if it works from the top down only. Policy is meant to be developed by thorough-going party debate top to bottom and sideways. Between conferences people are nominated to act on agreed lines to carry out that policy.

When there is a leadership that makes it up as it goes along, and bullies its own way in conference, it is all centralism, and no democracy.

Greengoddess
09-12-2012, 02:25 PM
It is a defective model, if it works from the top down only. Policy is meant to be developed by thorough-going party debate top to bottom and sideways. Between conferences people are nominated to act on agreed lines to carry out that policy.

When there is a leadership that makes it up as it goes along, and bullies its own way in conference, it is all centralism, and no democracy.

I agree of course. " bullies" is all you need to know!

RahenyFG II
25-12-2012, 12:05 PM
The ULA is hanging in by a thread.

They don't even have a national organisation or even a yearly national conference. Total mess!

C. Flower
25-12-2012, 12:49 PM
They don't even have a national organisation or even a yearly national conference. Total mess!

Not a party - only a very tentative alliance.

But with a number of serious members who would like a party.

Ceannaire
27-12-2012, 03:15 PM
Thanks for the answer but I couldn't possibly begin to keep track of all those names and it does not enlighten me as to what it stands for politically.


It essentially relates to historical and ideological issues that developed in the Marxist tradition that were related to the history of the Soviet Union.


After Stalin came to power in Russia, those who had supported Trotsky founded the Fourth International in opposition to him, and advocating "worldwide and permanent" socialist revolution. Although that movement has become very splintered, the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers' Party and hence the ULA follow that tradition.


The other main Marxist tradition is represented by the "Stickies", the Official Sinn Féin/Sinn Féin the Workers' Party/Workers' Party, etc. party and the Communist Party of Ireland, which were more sympathetic to the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries, so in terms of what they stood for, it would have been largely solidarity with those countries and promoting a model of socialism they would have favoured.

Greengoddess
27-12-2012, 04:12 PM
It essentially relates to historical and ideological issues that developed in the Marxist tradition that were related to the history of the Soviet Union.


After Stalin came to power in Russia, those who had supported Trotsky founded the Fourth International in opposition to him, and advocating "worldwide and permanent" socialist revolution. Although that movement has become very splintered, the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers' Party and hence the ULA follow that tradition.


The other main Marxist tradition is represented by the "Stickies", the Official Sinn Féin/Sinn Féin the Workers' Party/Workers' Party, etc. party and the Communist Party of Ireland, which were more sympathetic to the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries, so in terms of what they stood for, it would have been largely solidarity with those countries and promoting a model of socialism they would have favoured.
Indeed. Solidarity with some of the most brutal Soviet regimes in history. Where the torturing of poets in Gulags was the norm. What kind of people are attracted to that ?
:o

Greengoddess
27-12-2012, 04:13 PM
Indeed. Solidarity with some of the most brutal Soviet regimes in history. Where the torturing of poets in Gulags was the norm. What kind of people are attracted to that ?
:o
Wrong emoji
:D

Ceannaire
27-12-2012, 04:56 PM
Indeed. Solidarity with some of the most brutal Soviet regimes in history. Where the torturing of poets in Gulags was the norm. What kind of people are attracted to that ?
:o


Pretty horrendous and sadistic people, but I doubt that the majority of people who joined pro-Soviet parties in the 1930s and 40s knew the full extent of the horrors at the time. Disgracefully, Western capitalist countries were happy to allow their businesses co-operate with Stalin, and he was given a relatively easy ride by the media. Unfortunately, even much of the mainstream left was deluded (Stalin's "show trials", where the accused were forced to confess to crimes they had never committed were described by the Webbs -- the founders of the "New Statesman" -- as exemplary judicial proceedings).

Greengoddess
27-12-2012, 05:23 PM
Pretty horrendous and sadistic people, but I doubt that the majority of people who joined pro-Soviet parties in the 1930s and 40s knew the full extent of the horrors at the time. Disgracefully, Western capitalist countries were happy to allow their businesses co-operate with Stalin, and he was given a relatively easy ride by the media. Unfortunately, even much of the mainstream left was deluded (Stalin's "show trials", where the accused were forced to confess to crimes they had never committed were described by the Webbs -- the founders of the "New Statesman" -- as exemplary judicial proceedings).

There were other, of course, that joined later.....

Sam Lord
27-12-2012, 07:36 PM
Indeed. Solidarity with some of the most brutal Soviet regimes in history. Where the torturing of poets in Gulags was the norm. What kind of people are attracted to that ?
:o

Not like the EU of course which has never had anything to do with the oppression of anyone anywhere. It just marches along the high road of human civilisation spreading benefits to humanity in its wake. The tens of millions who die in poverty around the world every year have nothing to do with the global capitalist system the EU serves. There is no connection at all. The people who run the EU and sit in its parliament are all the most noble individuals who would die before oppressing anyone least of all a poet. Weren't they awarded the Noble peace prize after all. :rolleyes:

It seems the deeper that capitalism goes into crisis the louder will be the shrill propaganda of imperialism.

But as the sign in my avatar says, "Eat your pheasant drink your wine ... your days are numbered Bourgeois swine".

C. Flower
27-12-2012, 07:39 PM
It essentially relates to historical and ideological issues that developed in the Marxist tradition that were related to the history of the Soviet Union.


After Stalin came to power in Russia, those who had supported Trotsky founded the Fourth International in opposition to him, and advocating "worldwide and permanent" socialist revolution. Although that movement has become very splintered, the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers' Party and hence the ULA follow that tradition.


The other main Marxist tradition is represented by the "Stickies", the Official Sinn Féin/Sinn Féin the Workers' Party/Workers' Party, etc. party and the Communist Party of Ireland, which were more sympathetic to the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries, so in terms of what they stood for, it would have been largely solidarity with those countries and promoting a model of socialism they would have favoured.

Without having yet read your other posts on this thread, I would point out that whatever about the SWP etc., Trotsky himself stood firmly "In Defence of the Soviet Union (http://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1929/09/fi-b.htm)."

barrym
27-12-2012, 08:44 PM
If Gilmore is not gone by then, he probably will go soon after.

to be replaced by? and to what effect on the 2016 result?

Greengoddess
27-12-2012, 10:07 PM
I was actually referring to the political formation of some Irish politicians . I believe that a certain type of person is attracted to certain political structures. Even if they change parties their spots don't, as it were . For instance most of my former profession, internationally as well, are centre- left of some kind.
I also know quite a bit about suicide being a psychotherapist for 25 years. I choose not to talk about that subject for that reason.

C. Flower
27-12-2012, 10:36 PM
I was actually referring to the political formation of some Irish politicians . I believe that a certain type of person is attracted to certain political structures. Even if they change parties their spots don't, as it were . For instance most of my former profession, internationally as well, are centre- left of some kind.
I also know quite a bit about suicide being a psychotherapist for 25 years. I choose not to talk about that subject for that reason.

At the moment perhaps the amount of discussion of it is unhelpful. But some properly informed discussion of how it should and should not be reported in the press would not go amiss. That would be for a different thread.

Ceannaire
28-12-2012, 02:56 PM
There were other, of course, that joined later.....


Well if you're talking about those who joined after Stalin was gone (and officially denounced), you had a very different geopolitical structure to the one you had when he was terrorising his population, i.e., you had a bipolar world, and you could side with the USSR or the USA with little room for a Middle Way.

If anything, those people could claim a higher moral ground than Western-aligned parties, given that the USA had a much worse record on state terror, as it supported such regimes as Suharto in Indonesia (1 million Communists killed); the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia (3.5 million dead -- demographically the worst genocide in human history); during the Sino-Soviet split, the US sided with Mao, who was probably responsible for more deaths than anyone in history; Saddam Hussein, who started a war with Iran in which 1 million people died and gassed his own people to death; Pinochet, who killed and tortured thousands who opposed his fascist rule after America supported the overthrow of his democratically-elected predecessor; they also supported the despicable apartheid regime in South Africa -- and those are just some of the ones I thought of off the top of my head.

So for people who joined pro-Soviet parties during the post-Stalin era it wasn't because they were endorsing everything in those countries, but that in that bipolar scenario for the reasons I've outlined above the USSR was objectively the lesser evil.

Greengoddess
28-12-2012, 03:02 PM
That is an interesting analysis. Probably I am not objective on this subject and shouldn't talk on it.

Greengoddess
29-12-2012, 12:57 PM
Since this seems to have become yet another of the USSR threads ;) it might be worth mentioning that the Discovery History channel has a two programme feature on the Russian revolution beginning at 5.00 this evening.
A Labour thread becoming about the USSR! What a thought .

C. Flower
29-12-2012, 01:45 PM
A Labour thread becoming about the USSR! What a thought .

The big divide was the votes by the social democratic/Labour parties in 1914 to support World War 1, sending fellow socialists to kill each other.

barrym
30-12-2012, 07:22 AM
as the op on this thread, could I ask the ragged bunch of potemkin scholars to open their own thread??

Greengoddess
30-12-2012, 10:02 AM
There's one on the silent revolution......

riposte
30-12-2012, 03:02 PM
There's only one way that Labour in power are heading and that's into minority party status. That "every little hurts" poster is an overwhelming demonstration of Labour's dishonesty and insincerity. The game is up, the emperor has no clothes, they've got a role as defenders of the PS that'll prevent them from disappearing at the next GE.

Where to from there! With clear and permanent electoral daylight between Labour and FG/FF/SF by 2016, Labour will become an irrelevance and one that'll be unforgiven. There's no economic upturn that can come between now and 2016 that'll prevent three more Thatcherite budgets and three Thatcherite budgets that'll have Labour's "lifestyle choices" of the right wing leadership all over them.

Burton doing her Thatcher impression, Howlin putting the PS ahead of Welfare and nobody swallowing the no cuts to basic SW rates line that's hiding the creation of a Thatcherite poverty mountain.

These are revolutionary times, parties should be coming into existence on the Left and Right to fill the void. A breakaway Labour party would have a better long-term future than the current one.

Excellent!

Greengoddess
30-12-2012, 03:18 PM
I was hoping to keep Shaadi and he/she insomnia -producing comments at bay for a few hours ! This anonymity thing is sometimes irritating if only to satisfy curiosity ......

riposte
30-12-2012, 03:39 PM
This anonymity thing is sometimes irritating if only to satisfy curiosity ......

I know what you mean GG ....... I've been caught out a couple of times myself ..... not least when I kept saying ......."good man" .....to our host here .... lol !!

Greengoddess
30-12-2012, 03:57 PM
I know what you mean GG ....... I've been caught out a couple of times myself ..... not least when I kept saying ......."good man" .....to our host here .... lol !!

Most are men aren't they? On political sites . Why is that ?

barrym
31-12-2012, 09:13 AM
Changing the focus a bit, who of the present bunch will survive 2016 (assuming it is 2016, unlikely to be before, more's the pity).
My guesses - always assuming they don't run for cover with the pinsion....

Bruton, Quinn, Gilmore (?) and maybe some of the younger ones in urban areas?

B

Captain Con O'Sullivan
31-12-2012, 10:28 AM
Most are men aren't they? On political sites . Why is that ?

Moustaches capture the HobNob crumbs whereas the wimmin' have to keep getting up from the computer to shake the keyboard around over the swingbin in the kitchen.

Captain Con O'Sullivan
31-12-2012, 10:36 AM
Seriously though I am fairly sure that the notion still exists in large part around Irish society that if your family is not already in possession of a seat then it is more difficult for a female to enter into politics from a cold start than it is for a male.

I think the online sites are a reflection of the level of participation of males/females in Irish politics. It is still easier for example for the male of a couple who have moved to a new area to get involved in politics than it is for a female. Firstly because existing party hacks in any area are predominantly male and the male of the new couple in the area is more likely to meet them socially than the female is ...

Sounds a bit off but I've a feeling it is a blend of social opportunity and perception... I don't agree with it, mind, and I'd be a lot happier if females were more forward about getting on selection committee lists but I'd love to know for example how many selection committees are male dominated and I've a feeling it will be most of them.

That is most likely where the 'senior hurling' system will be reserved automatically for a male candidate whereas a female candidate will be considered usually only if she comes from a 'political family' with political form in the area.

That's my perception anyway. We would need to look at the makeup of selection committees around the country and how they scratch their posts before being able to really get to the heart of why so few women enter politics at a local level with no previous convictions within the family for the ongoing crime of Irish politics.

Captain Con O'Sullivan
31-12-2012, 10:40 AM
To get back to then subject of this thread, albeit obliquely, I think the local and Euro elections in 2014 will frame what happens in 2016 GE if the government get that far which I doubt. Mostly though I would be delighted to see the reaction against Fianna Fail being sustained enough to kick the local level ladders out from under Fianna Fail because that is where the nursery is for that particular creature.

Greengoddess
31-12-2012, 12:28 PM
moustaches capture the hobnob crumbs whereas the wimmin' have to keep getting up from the computer to shake the keyboard around over the swingbin in the kitchen.

😱

riposte
31-12-2012, 12:54 PM
To get back to then subject of this thread, albeit obliquely, I think the local and Euro elections in 2014 will frame what happens in 2016 GE if the government get that far which I doubt..

My guess is that there will be more defections from Labour in the run up to the General Election in the hope that those individuals can distance themselves from the Government and hang onto their seats. However a large number of Labour TDS will soldier on until 2016 and then retire. This will include some first-timers who reckon it won't be worth gambling 50,000 on a campaign.

Either way ... no election before 2015 at the earliest.

Shaadi
31-12-2012, 01:40 PM
I was hoping to keep Shaadi and he/she insomnia -producing comments at bay for a few hours ! This anonymity thing is sometimes irritating if only to satisfy curiosity ......Middle-aged family-man, pragmatic liberal blue collar Republican. No party affiliations and leaning towards left-libertarianism as the best system to overcome the inbuilt Orwellian tendancies of Humanity.

Shaadi
31-12-2012, 01:56 PM
Back on the subject of the thread. The future for Labour is going to be even bleaker than I thought. The problem of the dissidents seems to be unresolvable, the split in the Labour vote that their running against official Labour candidates will cause will have the effect of pushing the official Labour vote to under 10%.

The dissidents will beat the officials where they clash, turning the next GE into a worse version of the kickback against the Spring Tide. Dark times indeed, unless the disssents can be brought back into the fold.

Greengoddess
31-12-2012, 02:08 PM
It's word " dissenter" deserves some exploration. If it is true that these dissidents represent the core values of the Party, who REALLY are the mainstream . Are they so because they hold the reins of power? If so there is trouble ahead because they are not in the majority outside the PLP. This is why Keaveney will not be allowed to remain as chair if at all possible . I wonder, though, how many there will be in 2016. If we even get there.

riposte
31-12-2012, 02:15 PM
Middle-aged family-man, pragmatic liberal blue collar Republican. No party affiliations and leaning towards left-libertarianism as the best system to overcome the inbuilt Orwellian tendancies of Humanity.

In other words .... you're rootless Shaadi...... lol !!

Greengoddess
31-12-2012, 02:18 PM
Or in disguise!

riposte
31-12-2012, 02:20 PM
It's word " dissenter" deserves some exploration. If it is true that these dissidents represent the core values of the Party, who REALLY are the mainstream . Are they so because they hold the reins of power? If so there is trouble ahead because they are not in the majority outside the PLP. This is why Keaveney will not be allowed to remain as chair if at all possible . I wonder, though, how many there will be in 2016. If we even get there.

It will be measure of great man if Keaveney can resist the pressure to stand down and force them to hold a conference to have him removed. Not many have that much marrow in their bones.

barrym
31-12-2012, 02:27 PM
It will be measure of great man if Keaveney can resist the pressure to stand down and force them to hold a conference to have him removed. Not many have that much marrow in their bones.

Now that WILL be interesting, my read is that there may be many, including the hierarchy, who want him out, but political expediency says a conference to do so would generate too much noise. So, what to do, run the day to day without him? Is that possible within the rules?

Shaadi
31-12-2012, 02:57 PM
Or in disguise!You've been hanging around with the politburo types for too long. :D

Greengoddess
31-12-2012, 03:05 PM
Politburo? I love it!

Baron von Biffo
31-12-2012, 04:49 PM
Back on the subject of the thread. The future for Labour is going to be even bleaker than I thought. The problem of the dissidents seems to be unresolvable, the split in the Labour vote that their running against official Labour candidates will cause will have the effect of pushing the official Labour vote to under 10%.

The dissidents will beat the officials where they clash, turning the next GE into a worse version of the kickback against the Spring Tide. Dark times indeed, unless the disssents can be brought back into the fold.

The thing about the dissidents is that they're all motivated by personal considerations rather than matters of principle. 3 shaky seats, 1 eccentric and a wounded ego are not the stuff on which great political movements are founded.

riposte
31-12-2012, 04:53 PM
The thing about the dissidents is that they're all motivated by personal considerations rather than matters of principle. 3 shaky seats, 1 eccentric and a wounded ego are not the stuff on which great political movements are founded.

Wasn't that the foundation stone of the PDs?

Shaadi
31-12-2012, 05:27 PM
The thing about the dissidents is that they're all motivated by personal considerations rather than matters of principle. 3 shaky seats, 1 eccentric and a wounded ego are not the stuff on which great political movements are founded.That may be true, but the Irish electorate love splitters! Just look at all the ex FFers like Mattie and Co, they're still going strong.


Broughan aTD since 1992 is a shoe in, Shorthall a TD since 1992 another shoe in, Penrose a big personal vote and a poll topper. Nulty's seat is very dodgy but it's a very left-wing constituency and he's a better chance against Moan than with her. Keaveney 7.2% in 2011 has a better chance running as a Semi-Independent martyr candidate than as an Official Labour one. None of their chances are anything but enhanced by leaving the PLP.

Baron von Biffo
31-12-2012, 05:34 PM
That may be true, but the Irish electorate love splitters! Just look at all the ex FFers like Mattie and Co, they're still going strong.


Broughan aTD since 1992 is a shoe in, Shorthall a TD since 1992 another shoe in, Penrose a big personal vote and a poll topper. Nulty's seat is very dodgy but it's a very left-wing constituency and he's a better chance against Moan than with her. Keaveney 7.2% in 2011 has a better chance running as a Semi-Independent martyr candidate than as an Official Labour one. None of their chances are anything but enhanced by leaving the PLP.

You're absolutely right that they've enhanced their personal electoral support but that doesn't mean they'll work together or found another party. Some of them may rejoin Lab and the best the others can hope for is the whore themselves out in a future Gregory deal.

Shaadi
31-12-2012, 05:38 PM
You're absolutely right that they've enhanced their personal electoral support but that doesn't mean they'll work together or found another party. Some of them may rejoin Lab and the best the others can hope for is the whore themselves out in a future Gregory deal.Bar Broughan and possibly Nulty, they're all just waiting to return to the fold given half a chance.

Baron von Biffo
31-12-2012, 05:41 PM
Bar Broughan and possibly Nulty, they're all just waiting to return to the fold given half a chance.

Broughan? He's lost the whip more often than a drunk dominatrix but he always finds it again when it's expedient.

Shaadi
31-12-2012, 05:57 PM
Broughan? He's lost the whip more often than a drunk dominatrix but he always finds it again when it's expedient.

Yes, and the expedient thing to do is to put distance between the lifeboat and the sinking ship. This time it could be permanent, the 2015/16 GE will be a dangerous time to be on the Labour ship. The head of Gilmore won't be enough to save Labour from the ire of the electorate.

rebellin
01-01-2013, 09:25 PM
How many seats? Who will survive? Where will the votes go?

OK, all speculation, but after budget 2013 what will happen in 2016?

The question is: will this government, which stands behind "the worst budget in the history of the State" even last until 2016? I doubt it.