PDA

View Full Version : Committee for a Workers International groups see growth in electoral support



Jolly Red Giant
09-11-2012, 07:13 PM
The Socialist Party is affiliated to the Committee for a Workers International which comprises of organisations in over 40 countries around the globe.

Over the past few weeks member organisations of the CWI have seen significant growth in electoral support in several countries.

Brazil

In the recent local elections in Brazil the Liberty, Socialism and Revolution platform (CWI) in PSOL ran a candidate for mayor in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte and also council candidates in seven other cities. In Taboão da Serra, a metropolitan region of São Paulo, the LSR campaign won the political support of one of the most important movements of struggle for urban housing in the country, the MTST (Roof-less Worker’s Movement). The MTST organises urban occupations involving thousands of families. Our candidate was the only one supported by the movement in the whole country. While none of the LSR candidates were elected several candidates who politically aligned closely with the LSR were elected and the elections have resulted in significant growth in the membership of the LSR.

Russia

In Russia socialist and workers candidates are excluded by the electoral rules from participating in national elections. As a result of the undemocratic nature of the electoral process in Russia liberal opposition groups (and some far-right nationalist groups) came together and organised electioral primaries to 'Coordinating Groups' to build an opposition movement to Putin. Left organisations used these primaries as an opportunity to build the forces of the left to wrestle the opposition movement from the leadership of the liberals.

The CWI stood three candidates, Elena Volkova (from the independent teachers’ union) and Igor Yasin (from the March for Equality) in the ‘general section’ and Alexandra Volkova (Zhenya Otto) nominated by the CWI in the section for Left candidates. Zhenya gaining 9963 votes (15%), one of the top five Left votes and just a couple of hundred votes less than Vladimir Tor, one of the country’s best-known fascists and a founder of the notorious anti-immigrant “Russian march”. The Head of the Electoral Commission later admitted Zhenya won a seat, but refused to grant her the place. Results for other CWI candidates on the general list Elena Volkova 13,437 (18%) of those voting and Igor 3,334 (4%).

CWI candidates participated in several TV debates and had a significant impact. Zhenya Otto, for example, took part in an hour long debate on online TV, with Anton Kolganov, a Stalinist, on the way forward for the protest movement. Questions where so detailed that at one stage Zhenya even had to explain how the CWI raises its money from donations from members’ and the wider movement, which is a radical departure for most opposition groups in Russia, which rely on business sponsors. Having started the programme with just 30% of the online vote, Zhenya ended with a total of 61%.

Australia

On October 27 elections took place in Victoria to local councils and Socialist Part (CWI in Australia) stood candidates for Yarra Council. The city of Yarra is a municipality located in the inner north of Melbourne and the council comprises of nine councillors.

The press widely reported these elections being some of the ‘dirtiest’ in recent times. In many electorates reports of stolen ballots, scuffles between candidates, and misrepresentations of party affiliations were the dominant focus.

Stephen Jolly, standing for the Socialist Party in the Langridge ward increased his vote to an impressive 34.24%. The second Socialist Party cadidate, Mel Gregson secured a further 3% and ended with more than 10% of the vote following distributions. The Socialist Party were the largest party in Langridge ward.

In 2008 the Socialist Party polled a mere 2.13% in Melba ward. This time Antohny Mann won almost 12% of the vote and lost the last seat by just over 100 votes as a result of vote rigging by the Labour Party.

In Nicholls ward in 2011 the Socialist Party won 5.5% of the vote. A year later Chris Dite and David Elliott managed to double the Socialist Party vote to just under 11%.

In electoral terms the Socialist Party is now the second largest party in Yarra with just over 20% of the vote and less than 4% behind the Labour Party.

USA

Two days ago Socialist Alternative (CWI in USA) candidate Kshama Sawant won a historic vote of 27% in the Washington State House elections. This was the highest vote for an openly socialist candidate in the Washington State House elections for more than half a century. The vote was all the more remarkable because Kshama Sawant was standing against Democratic incumbent Speaker Frank Chopp. The more than 20,000 received by Kshama Sawant was the largest vote against Chopp in his 18 years in the House.

Socialist Alternative had to battle hard to even get on the ballot paper, first winning a run-off for the right to have Kshama Sawant on the ballot paper and then having to engage in a historic lawsuit by Sawant that compelled the Washington Secretary of State, the Attorney General, and King County to print her party preference, Socialist Alternative, on the ballot paper.

“We achieved this election result as an openly Socialist campaign that was largely ignored by the corporate media, with no corporate donations, on a shoe string budget,” explained Sawant. "Occupy gave a voice to working people’s rage at Wall Street, and our campaign gave voice to mass anger at the corporate politicians. It shows the potential to build a powerful left electoral challenge to the two corporate parties.”

Election night saw mass celebrations erupt in the streets of Seattle after the passage of Referendum 74 upholding marriage rights for same-sex couples. Speaking from atop a make-shift sound truck, Sawant addressed a crowd of over 2,000 people: “If you think that the Democratic Party politicians did this for you, let me tell you it was us that won this! The fight for LGBT rights has just begun, we still need to fight poverty, homelessness, and workplace discrimination.”

South Africa

The events surrounding the mine workers strikes in South Africa continue to send shockwaves through the country and have opened up a huge chasm in the political landscape. The call by the Democratic Socialist Movement (CWI in South Africa) for the establishment of a Mass Workers Party is begining to gain significant traction among the South African working class.

The ANC, SACP, NUM and COSATU have continued their unabated attacks on the DSM. Today the New Statesman published an article entitled Militant Tendency sends shivers through South Africa (a reference back to the previous name for many affiliates of the CWI). The article states:

Into the vacuum has stepped a new party, the Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM). Rallying disaffected miners in the gold and platinum industries, they have been roundly criticised by the ANC and its allies. Some attacked the DSM as a “counter revolutionary movement.” They were described as “hooligans” and accused of encouraging miners to pelt union officials, including the Cosatu leader, Zwelinzima Vavi, with rocks.

Certainly the DSM has the ANC leadership worried

The South African Broadcasting Corporation stated that A showdown looms between Congress of the South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM) .

Business Daily have stated -

A SOCIALIST, worker-based party, the Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM), is preparing to register and contest the 2014 national election, its leader, Mametlwe Sebei, said in an interview on Wednesday.

The party — fashioned as a grassroots, Marxist organisation — is working closely with "strike committees" from platinum mines in the Rustenburg area which have led wildcat strikes this year, demanding improved wages and working conditions. It is capitalising on the social distance that has sprung up between workers and established trade unions, such as the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which has strong ties to the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

The new party is fashioning itself as the voice of mining workers, and that of the poor communities surrounding the mines. The party prefers a "bottom up" approach — where the people at grassroots level lead — to political representation, in stark contrast to the Congress of the People — also punted as an alternative to the ANC — which self-destructed in fights over who should lead the party.

Mr Sebei said the DSM "took a decision at the beginning of the year that the working class of Rustenburg are at the forefront of the revolt of the working class".

"They are the ones that are going to break the entire alliance that until now has been used to hold in check the working class," he said in an interview after a meeting of the national strike committee in Rustenburg this week.

The article finihsed by quoting a statement from the strike committee at Amplats where more than 15,000 miners are on strike

the DSM was giving workers a voice, where the NUM had denied them one.

Mmegi (Botswana's leading newspaper) carried the following article today entitled And now, for something different: The new left. The artilce states:


Had the Marikana massacre not taken place in August, trade union federation Cosatu and the SA Communist Party could have gone on purporting to be the voice of the working class. But the workers rebellion at Lonmin's Marikana mine and the ripple effect in the platinum, gold and coal mining industries has lifted the lid on mass worker discontent.

Cosatu and the NUM are scrambling to regain the faith and loyalty of their members, who have either been organising themselves as strike committees or sought shelter under the umbrella of the Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM).

The real test for the ruling alliance would happen if a serious left-wing political party takes shape. The space has been created by the ANC leaning further centre-right on the political spectrum and dragging the SACP and Cosatu along.

C. Flower
03-12-2012, 03:52 PM
An exception here with the Socialist Party in Ireland.

The worst performing of any opposition group in the Dail.

http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SBP-2nd-Dec-2012-Poll-Report.pdf

All the fault of Mick Wallace ?

Given the weight that the SP has put on its TDs and its electoral ambitions, is the party facing an existential crisis ?

C. Flower
03-12-2012, 04:17 PM
An exception here with the Socialist Party in Ireland.

The worst performing of any opposition group in the Dail.

http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SBP-2nd-Dec-2012-Poll-Report.pdf

All the fault of Mick Wallace ?

Given the weight that the SP has put on its TDs and its electoral ambitions, is the party facing an existential crisis ?

Just looked again. The only opposition group in the Dail to have lost support, rather than gaining it.

Dr. FIVE
03-12-2012, 04:19 PM
Timely

https://p.twimg.com/A9NAvXOCAAAW8Wp.png

Sam Lord
03-12-2012, 04:46 PM
There is an unhealthy preoccupation with electoral support in the OP.

C. Flower
03-12-2012, 04:51 PM
There is an unhealthy preoccupation with electoral support in the OP.

Well, it is the topic of the thread.

Dojo
03-12-2012, 04:57 PM
There is an unhealthy preoccupation with electoral support in the OP.

Wha???? Isn't that how you're supposed to gain power, by getting elected?! :rolleyes: :confused:

Sam Lord
03-12-2012, 05:00 PM
Wha???? Isn't that how you're supposed to gain power, by getting elected?! :rolleyes: :confused:

I dunno. Ask Allende. Oh sorry, he's dead.

Dojo
03-12-2012, 05:03 PM
I dunno. Ask Pinochet. Oh sorry, he's dead.

Who said anything about Pinochet? You made a comment about electoral support being "unhealthy". But isn't electoral support the only way the far left can gain power? It kind of defeats your work if no one supports your party. :confused:


















Unless you advocate a violent, armed insurgency against the state?

Sam Lord
03-12-2012, 05:05 PM
Who said anything about Pinochet? You made a comment about electoral support being "unhealthy". But isn't electoral support the only way the far left can gain power? It kind of defeats your work if no one supports your party. :confused:


Sorry. My bad. Wrong Chilean. Try Allende.

C. Flower
03-12-2012, 05:16 PM
Wha???? Isn't that how you're supposed to gain power, by getting elected?! :rolleyes: :confused:

It is not how most democratic states got power. In England they had a bloody civil war and chopped the king's head off. I heard there was some trouble in France too. In Egypt, they did not get rid of Mubarak at the polls.

Dojo
03-12-2012, 05:28 PM
It is not how most democratic states got power. In England they had a bloody civil war and chopped the king's head off. I heard there was some trouble in France too. In Egypt, they did not get rid of Mubarak at the polls.

Pardon me, has everyone on this site (or at least the mods) taken leave of their senses??? We live in a democracy where political parties accede to power through the ballot box. In many countries without a democratic process the people are forced to take power by force. Seriously people, catch a grip FFS!!! :confused: :confused:

C. Flower
03-12-2012, 05:34 PM
Pardon me, has everyone on this site (or at least the mods) taken leave of their senses??? We live in a democracy where political parties accede to power through the ballot box. In many countries without a democratic process the people are forced to take power by force. Seriously people, catch a grip FFS!!! :confused: :confused:

I'm very much in favour of taking part in democratic processes. I'm only pointing out that we would not have them if at times people had not taken mass unilateral action.

Do you think that the Egyptians should have carried on putting up with Mubarak ?

Jolly Red Giant
03-12-2012, 06:09 PM
An exception here with the Socialist Party in Ireland.

The worst performing of any opposition group in the Dail.

http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SBP-2nd-Dec-2012-Poll-Report.pdf

All the fault of Mick Wallace ?

Given the weight that the SP has put on its TDs and its electoral ambitions, is the party facing an existential crisis ?

And you demonstrate here your complete lack of understanding of the operation of opinion polls.


There is an unhealthy preoccupation with electoral support in the OP.

There is no pre-occupation with anything - electoral support is an indication of the potential for the development of left-wing ideas and the building of left organisations - nothing more and nothing less.

<MOD>

C. Flower
03-12-2012, 08:34 PM
[QUOTE=Jolly Red Giant;296931]And you demonstrate here your complete lack of understanding of the operation of opinion polls.

Would you like to explain this, on the basis of your own understanding ?

https://p.twimg.com/A9NAvXOCAAAW8Wp.png




There is no pre-occupation with anything - electoral support is an indication of the potential for the development of left-wing ideas and the building of left organisations - nothing more and nothing less.

An indication, but very far from the only one, and not the most significant by any means.

CMK
03-12-2012, 11:45 PM
Margin of error stuff, surely. And that margin can only go one way. Unless someone here seriously believes a party can have a -3% rating. A party whose last two trips to the electorate yielded five councillors, one MEP and two TDs (one now departed) polls 0% and there is rejoicing at PW. A party whose last trip to the polls dropped from 18 councillors to 3 and from 6 TDs to 0 TDs and it's not picked up by PW or doesn't give any pause for thought. It's that kind of analysis that throws up huge credibility questions about PW from my perspective. But no doubt that graphic will provide some comfort.

Jolly Red Giant
04-12-2012, 12:03 AM
Margin of error stuff, surely. And that margin can only go one way. Unless someone here seriously believes a party can have a -3% rating. A party whose last two trips to the electorate yielded five councillors, one MEP and two TDs (one now departed) polls 0% and there is rejoicing at PW. A party whose last trip to the polls dropped from 18 councillors to 3 and from 6 TDs to 0 TDs and it's not picked up by PW or doesn't give any pause for thought. It's that kind of analysis that throws up huge credibility questions about PW from my perspective. But no doubt that graphic will provide some comfort.

Shock and horror :eek: someone on this forum shows some sense and makes an insightful comment - the resident internet warriors shhould take note :rolleyes:

fluffybiscuits
04-12-2012, 12:06 AM
Shock and horror :eek: someone on this forum shows some sense and makes an insightful comment - the resident internet warriors shhould take note :rolleyes:

You sound like you are in need of a hug and a cup of tea everytime you post :)

Jolly Red Giant
04-12-2012, 12:15 AM
You sound like you are in need of a hug and a cup of tea everytime you post :)

My wife gives me all the hugs I need and I don't drink tea ;)

fluffybiscuits
04-12-2012, 12:20 AM
My wife gives me all the hugs I need and I don't drink tea ;)

touche ;)

C. Flower
04-12-2012, 12:53 AM
Margin of error stuff, surely. And that margin can only go one way. Unless someone here seriously believes a party can have a -3% rating. A party whose last two trips to the electorate yielded five councillors, one MEP and two TDs (one now departed) polls 0% and there is rejoicing at PW. A party whose last trip to the polls dropped from 18 councillors to 3 and from 6 TDs to 0 TDs and it's not picked up by PW or doesn't give any pause for thought. It's that kind of analysis that throws up huge credibility questions about PW from my perspective. But no doubt that graphic will provide some comfort.

These are poll results that relate to the trend since the General Election, and not before it.

West Dublin was the last trip to the electorate by the Socialist Party, was it not ? Its candidate was regularly heard promising to root for projects that would bring "jobs for West Dublin." People have heard enough of that kind of thing from Fianna Fail.

And I can assure you, there is no rejoicing about the failure of the most active and significant party on the Irish left to make any impact in the arena it deems most important. But the SP's parliamentary existence remains "within the margin of error." Instead of shooting the messenger, why not ask yourselves why you are making that little impact ?

Jolly Red Giant
04-12-2012, 06:17 PM
These are poll results that relate to the trend since the General Election, and not before it.
An opinion poll is an opinion poll - not an election - furthermore a relative of mine was contacted for this poll and again when they stated support for the Socialist Party they were told that the Socialist Party wasn't included and they would be added to the Others catagory.


West Dublin was the last trip to the electorate by the Socialist Party, was it not ? Its candidate was regularly heard promising to root for projects that would bring "jobs for West Dublin." People have heard enough of that kind of thing from Fianna Fail.
Are you suggesting that the SP should say 'no jobs for Dublin West'? - furthermore in the by-election the SP actually INCREASED its vote when everyone was claiming that the vote in DW was purely a personal vote for Joe Higgins.


And I can assure you, there is no rejoicing about the failure of the most active and significant party on the Irish left to make any impact in the arena it deems most important. But the SP's parliamentary existence remains "within the margin of error." Instead of shooting the messenger, why not ask yourselves why you are making that little impact ?
The margin of error would put the Socialist Party anywhere between 0%-6%

A result at the half way point would mean more than 65,000 votes for SP candidates and would result in the SP probably winning four or more seats in the election. This would be a remarkable result for a far-left party and unprecedented in Irish politics.

The realty is that irrespective of the opinion polls in the next general election the SP will linkely win at least three seats and I think four (DWx2, CNC and DSW), the SWP are likely to win at least two (DL and DSC) and could take a third (DMW) and left independents could win five (DN, DSC, TS, SNL, DonSW) and I'm not including indos of the soft social democrat type like Murphy, Halligan, O'Sullivan or Clare Daly's buddy or the guy who smokes the wacky backy in that list. Furthermore the SP will significantly increase its votes in other areas like Limerick and Carlow etc. with the SP standing for the first time in other areas. Such a result would be unparralled in Irish politics and would represent a seismic shift in the political landscape and lay the foundation for a SYRIZA type result within the short-term.

Even more important (significantly more important) - the Socialist Party will have played a major role in developing a large scale anti-austerity movement leading such a movement in many parts of the country.

So CF - be the eternal pessimist - land all the blame for your shattered illusions at the doorstep of the uncompromising sectarian Socialist Party - continue to cry into your computer - in the meantime we'll get on with the job of building a political alternative.

C. Flower
04-12-2012, 06:55 PM
An opinion poll is an opinion poll - not an election - furthermore a relative of mine was contacted for this poll and again when they stated support for the Socialist Party they were told that the Socialist Party wasn't included and they would be added to the Others catagory.


That is serious for Red C and should be reported. I will give them a ring and ask how come that happened, and where they got their figures for the SP from. I have been hammering away at the press and at the polling companies that the SP and SWP/PBP should be disaggregated.


Are you suggesting that the SP should say 'no jobs for Dublin West'?

I am pointing out that your candidate played the parish pump game.


- furthermore in the by-election the SP actually INCREASED its vote when everyone was claiming that the vote in DW was purely a personal vote for Joe Higgins.

The SP came third, behind Fianna Fail.


The margin of error would put the Socialist Party anywhere between 0%-6%

Surely 3% and a notional - 3% ?


A result at the half way point would mean more than 65,000 votes for SP candidates and would result in the SP probably winning four or more seats in the election. This would be a remarkable result for a far-left party and unprecedented in Irish politics

I think it is quite possible that the SP would win 3 or 4 seats. This is nothing at all remotely like the SYRIZA landslide, in which they nearly formed the government.


The realty is that irrespective of the opinion polls in the next general election the SP will linkely win at least three seats and I think four (DWx2, CNC and DSW), the SWP are likely to win at least two (DL and DSC) and could take a third (DMW) and left independents could win five (DN, DSC, TS, SNL, DonSW) and I'm not including indos of the soft social democrat type like Murphy, Halligan, O'Sullivan or Clare Daly's buddy or the guy who smokes the wacky backy in that list. Furthermore the SP will significantly increase its votes in other areas like Limerick and Carlow etc. with the SP standing for the first time in other areas. Such a result would be unparralled in Irish politics and would represent a seismic shift in the political landscape and lay the foundation for a SYRIZA type result within the short-term.

I have been pointing out the strong shift to the left since the GE, expressed in a move to SF, and Independents. But you deny it is happening.


Even more important (significantly more important) - the Socialist Party will have played a major role in developing a large scale anti-austerity movement leading such a movement in many parts of the country.

I would be delighted if that was the case. However, it will not only be the SP - it will be hospital campaigners, and many energetic independents, FEE, the ULA, and one thousand and one other groups who are opposing this government and the Troika.


So CF - be the eternal pessimist - land all the blame for your shattered illusions at the doorstep of the uncompromising sectarian Socialist Party - continue to cry into your computer - in the meantime we'll get on with the job of building a political alternative.

I am not at all pessimistic. In fact, it is the SP that I find pessimistic with their continual refrain that the mood is not right and it is all going to happen, but not until some time next year or maybe the year after.

Jolly Red Giant
04-12-2012, 08:42 PM
That is serious for Red C and should be reported. I will give them a ring and ask how come that happened, and where they got their figures for the SP from. I have been hammering away at the press and at the polling companies that the SP and SWP/PBP should be disaggregated.

We have had three calls at my house from polling companies in the past two months and none of them will accept the SP as a seperate entity and all lump them into Others - the SP have been arguing with them for nearly two years about their polling methods.



I am pointing out that your candidate played the parish pump game.Ruth Coppinger called for jobs for the unemployed in Dublin West.



The SP came third, behind Fianna Fail.
The SP INCREASED its vote - if the SP had wanted to engage in sillybuggers about the result we could have demanded a recount and FF would have held the result up for a week by dragging out an army of solicitors. The SP's final vote was TIED with FF.



Surely 3% and a notional - 3% ?
No - the margin would be 0%-6% - you can't have a negative polling rating - in the same way the GP are between 0%-6%



I think it is quite possible that the SP would win 3 or 4 seats. This is nothing at all remotely like the SYRIZA landslide, in which they nearly formed the government.
in 2004 SYRIZA got 3.3% and 6 seats
in 2007 SYRIZA got 5.04% and 14 seats
in 2009 SYRIZA got 4.6% and 13 seats
in 2012 SYRIZA got 16.8% and then 27% a month later

The potential result for the far left in the next election in Ireland is potentially on the scale of the 2009 SYRIZA result - with the possibility of a momentum growing behind it with further economic crisis.



I have been pointing out the strong shift to the left since the GE, expressed in a move to SF, and Independents. But you deny it is happening.
The only thing I see you doing after each opinion poll is adding up the SF and LP vote with the indos. The LP are not 'left' (they are neo-liberal) and SF is populist. The growing mood is one of anti-austerity - the working class are still some way from drawing left-wing conclusions about the crisis.



I would be delighted if that was the case. However, it will not only be the SP - it will be hospital campaigners, and many energetic independents, FEE, the ULA, and one thousand and one other groups who are opposing this government and the Troika.

See the point above - and by the way, I have been arguing for five years that the issue that will bring tens of thousands out onto the streets on an ongoing basis will be over health cuts - what we have seen so far is only the tip of the iceberg. The key is ensuring that protests against the health cuts are not hijacked by parish pump politicians as they have in the past, but become part of a generalised anti-austerity campaign.



I am not at all pessimistic. In fact, it is the SP that I find pessimistic with their continual refrain that the mood is not right and it is all going to happen, but not until some time next year or maybe the year after.
The reality is that to date opposition to austerity has been mainfest in three ways
1. Intermittent campaigning against health cuts
2. An electoral thumping for FF and some growing support for parties posing as anti-austerity
3. The household charge boycott.
The left will only develop, and has only ever developed, during the heat of class struggle when working class people have drawn class conclusions about the nature of the crisis - while there are some stirrings in that way, It has not manifest itself in a generalised move to building new formations of the left - indeed that might (and I stress might) not happen until the ranks of the unions start engaging in battle.

Sam Lord
04-12-2012, 08:56 PM
The margin of error would put the Socialist Party anywhere between 0%-6%


Hilarious.

Who taught you about "margin of error"?

In the JRG world if you poll 0% it could be anything up to 6% and if you poll 3% then it could be anything up to, lets see .... oh, the same 6%

The stuff you make up is astonishing.



A result at the half way point would mean more than 65,000 votes for SP candidates and would result in the SP probably winning four or more seats in the election. This would be a remarkable result for a far-left party and unprecedented in Irish politics.


Not at all. The sticks won seven seats in 1989. They weren't up to much but they at least if not more left than the SP.



- in the meantime we'll get on with the job of building a political alternative.

:)

I'd have greater faith in the Labour Party.

Jolly Red Giant
04-12-2012, 11:28 PM
Hilarious.

Who taught you about "margin of error"?

In the JRG world if you poll 0% it could be anything up to 6% and if you poll 3% then it could be anything up to, lets see .... oh, the same 6%

The stuff you make up is astonishing.

And I take it that you're understanding comes from that degree you have in statistics and probability :rolleyes:


Not at all. The sticks won seven seats in 1989. They weren't up to much but they at least if not more left than the SP.
Actually they weren't - as amply demonstrated by the fact that they voted to put Haughey into power.



I'd have greater faith in the Labour Party.
Now there's a surprise - you can join with the rest of your ex-Stalinist buddies who run the LP these days.

Baron von Biffo
04-12-2012, 11:34 PM
The SP INCREASED its vote - if the SP had wanted to engage in sillybuggers about the result we could have demanded a recount and FF would have held the result up for a week by dragging out an army of solicitors. The SP's final vote was TIED with FF.

No matter how you try to spin it the official result of the election is that Coppinger was third, behind both the discredited Labour party and the discredited FF.

It was a terrible result for the SP.

Sam Lord
05-12-2012, 12:21 AM
And I take it that you're understanding comes from that degree you have in statistics and probability :rolleyes:


I think basic common sense would tell anyone that a margin of error of plus or minus three percent means exactly that. When you hit zero you might as well call the minus three percent zero as you cannot have a negative but the plus three percent does not become a plus six percent margin because you have hit rock bottom.



Actually they weren't - as amply demonstrated by the fact that they voted to put Haughey into power.


Well who knows what deals the SP might cut if they were ever in a position to do so.



Now there's a surprise - you can join with the rest of your ex-Stalinist buddies who run the LP these days.

I'm not joining with anyone thanks. Because one has more confidence in A than in B to do something does not imply that there is necessarily a hope in hell of A actually doing the task nor that one supports A. Elementary logic is not one of your strengths. In fact, your only strength seems to be in spoofing.

Garibaldy
05-12-2012, 12:22 AM
And I take it that you're understanding comes from that degree you have in statistics and probability :rolleyes:


Actually they weren't - as amply demonstrated by the fact that they voted to put Haughey into power.


Now there's a surprise - you can join with the rest of your ex-Stalinist buddies who run the LP these days.

Once more the parallel word of JRG who was let's not forget a member of the LP and canvassing for the LP while as the WP was a left offering an alternative to it and the other parties. Militant was telling people to vote for the most right wing social democratic power in Europe instead of WP candidates. That says it all.

I really do wonder what it's like in a world where objective reality doesn't matter. But where other people don't see blatant untruths when they see them do.

Sam Lord
05-12-2012, 12:33 AM
Once more the parallel word of JRG who was let's not forget a member of the LP and canvassing for the LP while as the WP was a left offering an alternative to it and the other parties. Militant was telling people to vote for the most right wing social democratic power in Europe instead of WP candidates. That says it all.


:D

I'd actually forgotten that they spent a considerable portion of their political lives as Labour Party activists.

C. Flower
05-12-2012, 12:55 AM
[QUOTE=Jolly Red Giant;297322]We have had three calls at my house from polling companies in the past two months and none of them will accept the SP as a seperate entity and all lump them into Others - the SP have been arguing with them for nearly two years about their polling methods.

Why does the SP not make a fuss about this publicly? But this is not the issue - the chart we are discussing does give a separate figure for the SP. If you are accusing Red C of fabricating that, it is a serious matter.


Ruth Coppinger called for jobs for the unemployed in Dublin West.As I said. She called for massive Capital Spending to benefit her constituency.


The SP INCREASED its vote - if the SP had wanted to engage in sillybuggers about the result we could have demanded a recount and FF would have held the result up for a week by dragging out an army of solicitors. The SP's final vote was TIED with FF.Oh dear.


No - the margin would be 0%-6% - you can't have a negative polling rating - in the same way the GP are between 0%-6%The margin of error relates to confidence not to the percentage - in this case there is a 95% certainty that the SP is on near as dammit 0%.


in 2004 SYRIZA got 3.3% and 6 seats
in 2007 SYRIZA got 5.04% and 14 seats
in 2009 SYRIZA got 4.6% and 13 seats
in 2012 SYRIZA got 16.8% and then 27% a month later[The potential result for the far left in the next election in Ireland is potentially on the scale of the 2009 SYRIZA result - with the possibility of a momentum growing behind it with further economic crisis.

The SP's sister party is not in SYRIZA, which is an amalgam of a large number of left parties/groups. The KKE lost ground in the same period.
There is no automatic guarantee of electoral gains by left parties in a crisis. It depends on their performance and credibility, amongst other things.


The only thing I see you doing after each opinion poll is adding up the SF and LP vote with the indos. The LP are not 'left' (they are neo-liberal) and SF is populist. The growing mood is one of anti-austerity - the working class are still some way from drawing left-wing conclusions about the crisis.
Then you are missing the point, which is the direction and extent that people have moved since the General Election.


See the point above - and by the way, I have been arguing for five years that the issue that will bring tens of thousands out onto the streets on an ongoing basis will be over health cuts - what we have seen so far is only the tip of the iceberg. The key is ensuring that protests against the health cuts are not hijacked by parish pump politicians as they have in the past, but become part of a generalised anti-austerity campaign.
There have been many thousands marching on parish pump health issues time and again over the last year. But the content of these protests is changing from local competition for resources to generalised opposition to loss of services.
As we've seen from the current pro choice campaign, the direction of events can't easily be predicted. There are so many things that could "break the camels back."

The reality is that to date opposition to austerity has been mainfest in three ways
1. Intermittent campaigning against health cuts
2. An electoral thumping for FF and some growing support for parties posing as anti-austerity
3. The household charge boycott.
The left will only develop, and has only ever developed, during the heat of class struggle when working class people have drawn class conclusions about the nature of the crisis - while there are some stirrings in that way, It has not manifest itself in a generalised move to building new formations of the left - indeed that might (and I stress might) not happen until the ranks of the unions start engaging in battle.What exactly do you mean by "opposition to austerity" ?

There have been a large number of small protests in the last three years on a large number of economic and social issues. There was the experience of the Occupy movement. The growth of FEE and the formation of the ULA were important developments. The pro-choice movement is another one. The Trade Unions have been successfully coralled by government strategy, backed by the bureacrats. Has the SP called on the public sector union members to refuse to collect regressive taxes, refuse to make people homeless, etc. ?

Sam Lord
05-12-2012, 01:06 AM
The margin of error relates to confidence not to the percentage - in this case there is a 95% certainty that the SP is on near as dammit 0%.


That is not correct.

Margin of error and confidence are two different things. The confidence percentage is one of confidence in the margin of error.

So with a margin of error of plus/minus 3% and a confidence level of 95% what is being said is that 95 times out of 100 the result will be within the margin of error range.

In this case what is being said is the there is a 95% likelihood of the SP polling between 0 and 3 percent.

C. Flower
05-12-2012, 01:16 AM
That is not correct.

Margin of error and confidence are two different things. The confidence percentage is one of confidence in the margin of error.

So with a margin of error of plus/minus 3% and a confidence level of 95% what is being said is that 95 times out of 100 the result will be within the margin of error range.

In this case what is being said is the there is a 95% likelihood of the SP polling between 0 and 3 percent.

You are right.

In the case of a small party like the SP, polls like this don't allow for the impact they can make when they focus their efforts on a small number of constituencies. This can bring some limited electoral success. But it is not a good strategy for the kind of growth that JRG is talking about. Sinn Fein's approach has been very different and more ambitious.

Sam Lord
05-12-2012, 01:31 AM
You are right.

In the case of a small party like the SP, polls like this don't allow for the impact they can make when they focus their efforts on a small number of constituencies. This can bring some limited electoral success. But it is not a good strategy for the kind of growth that JRG is talking about. Sinn Fein's approach has been very different and more ambitious.

JRG is also forgetting that they have lost their most able person (Daly)and that Higgins is not getting younger and seems tired and increasingly disinterested. Who they have in line that might appeal to voters is hard to say. Coppinger seems very lightweight.

C. Flower
05-12-2012, 02:12 AM
JRG is also forgetting that they have lost their most able person (Daly)and that Higgins is not getting younger and seems tired and increasingly disinterested. Who they have in line that might appeal to voters is hard to say. Coppinger seems very lightweight.

I have the impression that a lot of the young generation of activists in Ireland have been attracted to environmental causes, by anarchism or by nationalism and a range of single issues like Palestine and are not too interested in the Dail.