There is No Evidence of An Iranian Nuclear Weapons Programme

[C. Flower]

This American perspective blog asks the question "what evidence is there of an Iranian nuclear bomb programme."

The answer, backed up by the latest US intelligence reports, seems to be that any related research or work ended in 2003, and that Iran does not have a weapons development programme.

http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/32822/

Some fascinating detail on the US efforts (fake bricks and road signs, sensitive to radioactivity) that have failed to come up with any evidence that Iran is working towards a bomb.

I'm posting this in the context of the current punitive sanctions to be imposed on Iranian oil exports, that are so severe that they could be considered an act of war by the US and EU against Iran.


For decades Americans have been subjected to saturation bombing by misinformation and outright lies about Iran. The information from our intelligence agencies has painted a more accurate picture, if we choose to see it

[antiestablishmentarian]

Thanks for posting this. The (unquestioned) orthodoxy is that Iran is developing the bomb and thus turning the burden of proof on Iran rather than on those imposing the sanctions and who have already attacked Iran and its infrastructure through the Stuxnet virus.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8326387/Israel-video-shows-Stuxnet-as-one-of-its-successes.html

[cdgalwegian]

. The (unquestioned) orthodoxy is that Iran is developing the bomb and thus turning the burden of proof on Iran

Governments, because they are made up of people with their own prejudices, desires and vested interests, develop agendas to further their aims. A particular strategy, blatantly followed through Iraq was to follow the principle: “Absence of proof is not proof of absence.” And when all else fails, make the stuff up; as Einstein said "If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts."

This is therefoe the continuation of the neo-conservative strategy of reality-formation.


The End of the American Road

The New Neo-Con Reality

by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

"We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

–Bush White House aide explaining the New Reality
http://www.counterpunch.org/2008/10/28/the-new-neo-con-reality/

The role of the media is obviously important here, which this forum frequently points out; the media helps shapes the perceptions which influence our understanding the world as presented. If this can be manipulated, two birds can be killed with the one stone: in making reality, two agendas can be fulfilled- in the supposed national interest in the geo-political stakes, as well as corporate interest. The two become aligned.

It has got to the situation where corporate greed can direct American foreign policy, regardless of the consequence. The simplistic, atavistic and emotional use of the term 'Axis of Evil' was an evil act in itself. It's shameful that this narrative, without the explicit use of the term has been carried on.

[Holly]

Did the Labour Party's Eamon Gilmore pledge Ireland's support for the European Union's decision to place an embargo on Iranian oil?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-120104eu-iran-oil,0,5842881.story

[antiestablishmentarian]

Did the Labour Party's Eamon Gilmore pledge Ireland's support for the European Union's decision to place an embargo on Iranian oil?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-120104eu-iran-oil,0,5842881.story

We won't know 'til WikiLeaks publish the next cache of US diplomatic cables.

[rebellin]

Iran Ready To Resume Nuclear Talks, While Voices in the West Beat their War Drum Lies

Iranian state media reported on Jan 1 that Iran is ready to resume nuclear talks with world powers. Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi said in a meeting with a visiting Chinese official in Tehran that Iran was ready to resume talks with the six world powers over its nuclear programs. Additionally, chief nuclear negotiator Saeid Jalili plans to inform European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton about Iran's decision.

Mehr news agency quoted Iran's Ambassador to Berlin Ali-Reza Sheikh-Attar, as saying that Jalili would soon forward Iran's intention to Ashton, who leads the six involved parties — comprised of the five permanent UN Security Council members, Great Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, plus Germany — in the talks.

[Kev Bar]

Iran is so short of energy supplies, nuclear power is essential.

And given their dire lack of alternative sources of energy, how could one even think that they might be harbouring nuclear weapon ambitions.

Surely a look at what happened in Iraq would deter them.

Then a look at North Korea wld show the heavy price one pays for nuclear desires.

Perhaps we should offer Iran oil and gas.

Then they would have no need for nuclear power.

But I suppose the logistics of trying to get oil and gas to that region may prove difficult.

[cdgalwegian]

Iran is so short of energy supplies, nuclear power is essential.



[QUOTE]
Iran possessed abundant fuels from which to generate energy, ranking second in the world in natural gas reserves and third in oil reserves. Nevertheless, in 2005 Iran spent US$4 billion dollars on fuel imports, mainly because of inefficient domestic use.[QUOTE]
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/oil.htm

The problem, as far as I remember, is lack of refinement of crude oil, rather than reserves.

[antiestablishmentarian]

Iran is so short of energy supplies, nuclear power is essential.

And given their dire lack of alternative sources of energy, how could one even think that they might be harbouring nuclear weapon ambitions.

Surely a look at what happened in Iraq would deter them.

Then a look at North Korea wld show the heavy price one pays for nuclear desires.

Perhaps we should offer Iran oil and gas.

Then they would have no need for nuclear power.

But I suppose the logistics of trying to get oil and gas to that region may prove difficult.
To my mind there's a plausible argument to be made that if Iraq actually had WMD the US might not have invaded them.

[Kev Bar]

To my mind there's a plausible argument to be made that if Iraq actually had WMD the US might not have invaded them.

I think the Iranians might agree with you.

[Apjp]

Iran is so short of energy supplies, nuclear power is essential.

And given their dire lack of alternative sources of energy, how could one even think that they might be harbouring nuclear weapon ambitions.

Surely a look at what happened in Iraq would deter them.

Then a look at North Korea wld show the heavy price one pays for nuclear desires.

Perhaps we should offer Iran oil and gas.

Then they would have no need for nuclear power.

But I suppose the logistics of trying to get oil and gas to that region may prove difficult.

Iran doesn't need oil and gas from the west. It produces its own oil. I'd sooner cut a fuel deal over our energy fields here in Ireland with themselves than the yanks, the troika or shell.

[Kev Bar]

Iran doesn't need oil and gas from the west. It produces its own oil. I'd sooner cut a fuel deal over our energy fields here in Ireland with themselves than the yanks, the troika or shell.

I know that.
And therefore its need for nuclear power is...?

[Kev Bar]

[QUOTE]
Iran possessed abundant fuels from which to generate energy, ranking second in the world in natural gas reserves and third in oil reserves. Nevertheless, in 2005 Iran spent US$4 billion dollars on fuel imports, mainly because of inefficient domestic use.[QUOTE]
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/oil.htm

The problem, as far as I remember, is lack of refinement of crude oil, rather than reserves.

Wld it be simpler and cheaper to be efficient and refine or to go nuclear?

[Kev Bar]

Iran doesn't need oil and gas from the west. It produces its own oil. I'd sooner cut a fuel deal over our energy fields here in Ireland with themselves than the yanks, the troika or shell.

Perhaps.
The bodies of many Iranian socialists and communists, murdered by the Mullahs after the Iranian revolution, might turn in their graves at you giving Iran such trust.

[C. Flower]

Perhaps.
The bodies of many Iranian socialists and communists, murdered by the Mullahs after the Iranian revolution, might turn in their graves at you giving Iran such trust.

If you propose sanctions on all oil producers who have executed communists, you would quickly run out of supplies.

[C. Flower]

I know that.
And therefore its need for nuclear power is...?

It's a finite resource Kev. The two biggest fields in the world are losing pressure.
Some oil states have been preparing for the oil free future for decades.

[TotalMayhem]

Worry not, folks, the eveidence will be found when Bombing for Democracy becomes inevitable and the liberation of the Iranian people the most noble duty.

[Apjp]

I know that.
And therefore its need for nuclear power is...?

You said its essential they have nuclear power and maybe the west should give them oil. I pointed out they have oil already. Therefore their need for oil is..?

[Apjp]

If you propose sanctions on all oil producers who have executed communists, you would quickly run out of supplies.

There's always Compagnero Chavez lol

[Kev Bar]

If you propose sanctions on all oil producers who have executed communists, you would quickly run out of supplies.

I don't recall proposing sanctions. I was questioning preferential treatment.

[C. Flower]

I don't recall proposing sanctions. I was questioning preferential treatment.

Found any bombs yet ?

[antiestablishmentarian]

I know that.
And therefore its need for nuclear power is...?The Iranians say they are developing the programme to free up more oil for export.

[TotalMayhem]

The Iranians say they are developing the programme to free up more oil for export.

Well, they don't need that anymore, do they? I mean, now that they can't sell their oil anymore? ;)

[antiestablishmentarian]

Well, they don't need that anymore, do they? I mean, now that they can't sell their oil anymore? ;)
We'll have to see how long that lasts before the Chinese and Indians get up in arms about it. It could cause serious tensions between the western alliance and these new powers.

[C. Flower]

We'll have to see how long that lasts before the Chinese and Indians get up in arms about it. It could cause serious tensions between the western alliance and these new powers.

South Korea was asking the US for dispensation to carry on using Iranian oil last week. Oil prices are already up.

Wars are great users of oil too - the amount used by the US navy is more than a lot of countries.

[TotalMayhem]

South Korea was asking the US for dispensation to carry on using Iranian oil last week.

Italy is looking for an exemption of crude oil.

[antiestablishmentarian]

South Korea was asking the US for dispensation to carry on using Iranian oil last week. Oil prices are already up.

Wars are great users of oil too - the amount used by the US navy is more than a lot of countries.
The US and the EU have said they'll enforce this so it's hard to see how they'd justify allowing the Koreans to get their oil while barring the BRIC countries from accessing Iranian energies.

[musashi]

The US will not attempt to seriously escalate the situation in the Straits of Hormuz, Iran however I'm not so sure about; both sides have a kill switch, the 'nuclear' option (please excuse the pun). Escalation will stop the bottleneck on a crucial source of oil, markets will go berserk, Gold will likely skyrocket, the dollar ... who knows.

It occurs to me that it was under a similiar phony pretext (an imminent nuclear threat) that the US invaded Iraq. Back then the US went to the UN, lied through their teeth and initiated a war that killed north of 100,000 people.

Although that precedent has already been set, invasion predicated on a lie, it is unlikely to intimidate Iran, which has spent the last 50 years developing its own indigenous military force.

[Holly]

Whatever about israeli/US propaganda about the development of Iranian weapons of mass destruction, the USA will not permit Iran to close and international sea lane. The only question will be whether the Americans will merely obliterate the entire Iranian navy or go further and level Tehran.

[C. Flower]

The US will not attempt to seriously escalate the situation in the Straits of Hormuz, Iran however I'm not so sure about; both sides have a kill switch, the 'nuclear' option (please excuse the pun). Escalation will stop the bottleneck on a crucial source of oil, markets will go berserk, Gold will likely skyrocket, the dollar ... who knows.

It occurs to me that it was under a similiar phony pretext (an imminent nuclear threat) that the US invaded Iraq. Back then the US went to the UN, lied through their teeth and initiated a war that killed north of 100,000 people.

Although that precedent has already been set, invasion predicated on a lie, it is unlikely to intimidate Iran, which has spent the last 50 years developing its own indigenous military force.

Given the state of the European economy, it might be a hefty side swipe by the US (and UK) at Europe.

[Kev Bar]

You said its essential they have nuclear power and maybe the west should give them oil. I pointed out they have oil already. Therefore their need for oil is..?

I was being smart arsed about the imperative for nuclear power cos of the lack of alternatives.

I was speaking like they allegedly do in the souks of the Orient - with forked tongue.

[C. Flower]

I was being smart arsed about the imperative for nuclear power cos of the lack of alternatives.

I was speaking like they allegedly do in the souks of the Orient - with forked tongue.

Wrong KB - it's the White Man who "allegedly" speaks with a forked tongue.

[C. Flower]

Reuters reports that Iran has opened a new uranium enrichment plant for inspection - it sounds as though it is so deep under some mountain that no bomb is going to reach it.

Also they have passed a death sentence on an Iranian born US citizen for spying.

Upping the anti.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/09/iran-idUSL6E8C91P920120109

[fluffybiscuits]

Reuters reports that Iran has opened a new uranium enrichment plant for inspection - it sounds as though it is so deep under some mountain that no bomb is going to reach it.

Also they have passed a death sentence on an Iranian born US citizen for spying.

Upping the anti.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/09/iran-idUSL6E8C91P920120109

While Im not the biggest fan of American policy they would be no better than the Americans if they put the man to death. For a country that is fiercely critic of the US it sometimes ironically acts like them in its sentencing. Why not just deport him and ban him frm Iran if they feel he is a threat or are they trying to prove a point to the Americans?

[DCon]

pause for thought

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98j0I7e5OHE&feature=player_embedded

[rebellin]

Professor Fancis A Boyle: Waging war against Iran is a Criminal Act, in violation of International Law.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28532

[Count Bobulescu]

Anyone who thinks that Obama who promised to end the Iraq war, and depart Afghan by 2014, now wants to go to war with Iran before the election is way off base. The current tension arises from the Iranian threat to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the new sanctions. Current thinking in the US is that for a variety of reasons ultimately Iran will not do it, not the least of which is that they would be unable to import refined product from China, Singapore and other sources. US has just placed sanctions on the Chinese and Singapore exporters. If they do block, US will reopen.
Here’s an NYT piece.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/world/middleeast/us-warns-top-iran-leader-not-to-shut-strait-of-hormuz.html?_r=1&ref=world

“The simple answer is yes, they can block it,” General Dempsey said on CBS on Sunday.
Estimates by naval analysts of how long it could take for American forces to reopen the strait range from a day to several months, but the consensus is that while Iran’s naval forces could inflict damage, they would ultimately be destroyed.
“Their surface fleet would be at the bottom of the ocean, but they could score a lucky hit,” said Michael Connell, the director of the Iranian studies program at the Center for Naval Analysis, a research organization for the Navy and Marine Corps. “An antiship cruise missile could disable a carrier.”

[C. Flower]

Why where the Iranians bringing in yellow cake from Niger so?

Why would they bother when they are happy to be able to make their own ?

http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=iran%20yelllow%20cake&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.voanews.com%2Fenglish%2Fnews% 2FIran-Produces-First-Domestically-Produced-Uranium-Yellowcake-111343954.html&ei=ja8QT8OpBIjBhAfz8c2LBw&usg=AFQjCNHpMoqJY2_wHqhK5UtwCXp7L18H5w

[Dr. FIVE]

http://www.fair.org/blog/2012/01/11/at-wapo-editorial-page-can-make-up-iran-facts/

[Holly]

None of the American newspapers can be believed in their reporting of Iran.

[C. Flower]

Anyone who thinks that Obama who promised to end the Iraq war, and depart Afghan by 2014, now wants to go to war with Iran before the election is way off base. The current tension arises from the Iranian threat to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the new sanctions. Current thinking in the US is that for a variety of reasons ultimately Iran will not do it, not the least of which is that they would be unable to import refined product from China, Singapore and other sources. US has just placed sanctions on the Chinese and Singapore exporters. If they do block, US will reopen.
Here’s an NYT piece.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/world/middleeast/us-warns-top-iran-leader-not-to-shut-strait-of-hormuz.html?_r=1&ref=world

I'm not sure that the US intended to go to war in Libya when it did. And the sanctions are virtually an act of war.

[Binn Beal]

Count B: The current tension arises from the Iranian threat to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the new sanctions.
The reports I've seen/read say that the Iranians threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if their country was attacked.
Their response to the sanctions was to ridicule them. We should be thankful that so far they have not regarded the murders of the scientists as an attack. It seems it will take a bigger provocation to get them to respond.

[Griska]

This is well known, but is succinctly put here:


1967: Under the U.S. “Atoms for Peace” program, started in the 1950s by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Shah is allowed to buy a 5-megawatt, light-water type research reactor for Tehran (which -- call it irony -- is still playing a role in the dispute over the Iranian nuclear program).

http://www.tomdispatch.com/

The whole thing is a farce, albeit a rather dangerous one.

[People Korps]

Re Op yes that is accepted by all sane people but like Saddam Iran does not want to admit it really

What Iran does have is the missile delivery systems that Pakistani warheads could be launched by :)
dont **** with Iran

[fluffybiscuits]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d49e0bc8-4121-11e1-b521-00144feab49a.html#axzz1jl7i6Z4S

Talk of the embargos in Iran on its oil. Iran has said that this would be tantamount to suicide for Europe and push the price of oil through the roof. Amazing, they punish us in the search for some imaginary weapons. Utter tools...

[Dr. FIVE]

Pilger

http://stopwar.org.uk/index.php/usa-war-on-terror/1056-the-war-on-democracy-and-where-the-bombing-of-iran-will-start#.TxhLJ6-TI-8.twitter

[Holly]

Eamon Gilmore stated today that "Ireland" supports the European Union's intention to place an embargo on Iranian oil. The Labour Party believes that Iran's militarization of atomic energy is a threat to world peace. Does Ireland have spies in Iran or is the Labour Party getting its information from another source?

[C. Flower]

Eamon Gilmore stated today that "Ireland" supports the European Union's intention to place an embargo on Iranian oil. The Labour Party believes that Iran's militarization of atomic energy is a threat to world peace. Does Ireland have spies in Iran or is the Labour Party getting its information from another source?


I think we should ask him. Hard to believe that Gilmore would contradict his Embassy handler though.

[Holly]

Up to 20% of the European Union's oil likely to go to Red China causing higher prices in Europe. Eamon Gilmore voted for this without any debate in the Dáil.
Strait Jacket: Iran to 'definitely' close Hormuz if EU bans oil - YouTube

This is beginning to look like Ireland is no longer considered a "neutral" country as the build-up to an invasion of Iran takes shape.

[fluffybiscuits]

Up to 20% of the European Union's oil likely to go to Red China causing higher prices in Europe. Eamon Gilmore voted for this without any debate in the Dáil.
Strait Jacket: Iran to 'definitely' close Hormuz if EU bans oil - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZZdpQQGMKc&feature=g-all-u&context=G2b0d578FAAAAAAAAAAA)

This is beginning to look like Ireland is no longer considered a "neutral" country as the build-up to an invasion of Iran takes shape.

If they close the straits of Hormuz and choke the oil supply then the prices will be even higher than they are at the moment. Iran is fully entitled to close the straits if they like as it lies within the nautical boundary as per the UN convention on the sea, 12 miles from its coast. The US are itching to flex their muscles, after Afghanistan and Iraq, Obama wouldnt mind showing what he can do and start a war, he only got to continue one. Of course its coming close to elections also so thats another reason....

[C. Flower]

Why did Gilmore lie to the Irish voters and say that there was an Iranian weapons programme?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0124/1224310671484.html

The US intelligence services found no evidence that there is one.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0123/Iran-angry-over-EU-unity-on-oil-embargo?cmpid=addthis_twitter#.Tx2VPiSG9mQ.twitter

[antiestablishmentarian]

Why did Gilmore lie to the Irish voters and say that there was an Iranian weapons programme?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0124/1224310671484.html

The US intelligence services found no evidence that there is one.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0123/Iran-angry-over-EU-unity-on-oil-embargo?cmpid=addthis_twitter#.Tx2VPiSG9mQ.twitter

Gilmore is a liar, I'm surprised you expect any different of him. The moves to break down Irish 'neutrality' have been ongoing for a while and given the fact he has partners in government who want to see us as signatories to NATO, as well of course as the state's obligations towards a European common defence means a move towards military integration of Ireland in the western bloc is a pretty foregone conclusion and will probably be pushed through sometime in the next decade, perhaps under the guise of winning 'bondholder' concessions from the Federal government.

[Holly]

Why did Gilmore lie to the Irish voters and say that there was an Iranian weapons programme?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0124/1224310671484.html

The US intelligence services found no evidence that there is one.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0123/Iran-angry-over-EU-unity-on-oil-embargo?cmpid=addthis_twitter#.Tx2VPiSG9mQ.twitter
email sent by me today to Eamon Gilmore:
Mr. Gilmore,
You are quoted in The Irish Times as saying, "“Here we’re dealing with an undisputed fact that Iran is militarising its nuclear set-up. There is no argument about the threat that that poses,”. Yet, while American and Israeli intelligence, along with inspectors of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, conclude that Iran has conducted weapons-related work in the past, they say they have no evidence that Iran has decided to make a nuclear device.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0123/Iran-angry-over-EU-unity-on-oil-embargo?cmpid=addthis_twitter#.Tx2VPiSG9mQ.twitter
On behalf of Ireland, a country with a reputation for neutrality, you are committing us to an act of hostility with an oil embargo against a country that has done us no harm.

Why do you not ask for an embargo of products from Israel for the treatment meted out by the Israeli Defense Forces daily to the Palestinians in blockaded Gaza and the Palestinian Occupied Territories instead? I recognize nothing resembling the Labour Party before the election and your conduct since joining Finne Gael.

[fluffybiscuits]

email sent by me today to Eamon Gilmore:
Mr. Gilmore,
You are quoted in The Irish Times as saying, "“Here we’re dealing with an undisputed fact that Iran is militarising its nuclear set-up. There is no argument about the threat that that poses,”. Yet, while American and Israeli intelligence, along with inspectors of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, conclude that Iran has conducted weapons-related work in the past, they say they have no evidence that Iran has decided to make a nuclear device.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0123/Iran-angry-over-EU-unity-on-oil-embargo?cmpid=addthis_twitter#.Tx2VPiSG9mQ.twitter
On behalf of Ireland, a country with a reputation for neutrality, you are committing us to an act of hostility with an oil embargo against a country that has done us no harm.

Why do you not ask for an embargo of products from Israel for the treatment meted out by the Israeli Defense Forces daily to the Palestinians in blockaded Gaza and the Palestinian Occupied Territories instead? I recognize nothing resembling the Labour Party before the election and your conduct since joining Finne Gael.


Excellent e mail, straight and to the point. Question everything you can find them on. Its times like this Im happy Im a member of a site like this, people who care.

Let me know about the response, would love to hear :)

[Holly]

...
Let me know about the response, would love to hear :)

I don't expect a response, Fluff, other than perhaps an acknowledgment of receipt from one of his clerical staff.

[Count Bobulescu]

From this Sunday’s NYT.


SNEAK PEAK, N.Y. Times Magazine cover story, "WILL ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN?" by Ronen Bergman: "Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran's nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project? And can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack? 2. Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack? 3. Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran's nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack? For the first time since the Iranian nuclear threat emerged in the mid-1990s, at least some of Israel's most powerful leaders believe that the response to all of these questions is yes." http://nyti.ms/w8vZn2 (http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8285d18826136634a9b3eebe772d2797f1056a4025bf18 8a99fd5cdf28c9e903)

[fluffybiscuits]

I don't expect a response, Fluff, other than perhaps an acknowledgment of receipt from one of his clerical staff.
Took five days to get an acknowledgement from Pat Rabbittes office :mad:

[Count Bobulescu]

Iran says it’s ready to talk nukes, maybe.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/president-ahmadinejad-adds-voice-to-irans-call-for-nuclear-talks-with-world-powers/2012/01/26/gIQAjt9XSQ_story.html

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran is ready to revive talks with the U.S. and other world powers, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday, but suggested that Tehran’s foes will have to make compromises to prevent negotiations from again collapsing in stalemate.
Iran’s insistence that it will never give up uranium enrichment — the process that makes material for reactors as well as weapons — scuttled negotiations a year ago and still looms as a potential deal breaker even as tougher Western sanctions target Iran’s critical oil exports.
Ahmadinejad added his voice to proposals by Iranian officials to return to talks Thursday at a rally in the southeastern city of Kerman, saying a nation that is in the “right” should not be worried about holding dialogue.

[Count Bobulescu]

USS Ponce headed back to Middle East after a rush refit.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-wants-commando-mother-ship/2012/01/27/gIQA66rGWQ_story.html?hpid=z1


The Pentagon is rushing to send a large floating base for commando teams to the Middle East as tensions rise with Iran (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/angry-iran-buries-slain-scientist-vows-revenge-against-us-israel/2012/01/13/gIQAT65CwP_story.html), al-Qaeda in Yemen (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/militants-create-haven-in-southern-yemen/2011/12/29/gIQA9Fb1SP_story.html)and Somali pirates (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/navy-seal-raid-in-somalia-frees-american-223/2012/01/25/gIQA1CL5QQ_video.html), among other threats.

Lt. Cmdr. Mike Kafka, a spokesman for the Navy’s Fleet Forces Command, declined to elaborate on the floating base’s purpose or to say where, exactly, it will be deployed in the Middle East. Other Navy officials acknowledged that they were moving with unusual haste to complete the conversion and send the mothership to the region by early summer.

Other details of the project became public Tuesday when the Military Sealift Command posted a bid request (https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=2ab56f891da0e3fcdef7e1218b0b9431&tab=core&_cview=1)to retrofit the USS Ponce, an amphibious transport docking ship, on a rush-order basis.

U.S. military officials declined to say what prompted them to give the Ponce a sudden new lease on life. But contract and bidding documents underscore the urgency of the project.

One no-bid contract for engineering work states that the military was waiving normal procurement rules because any delay presented a “national security risk.” Other contract bids are due Feb. 3. The Navy wants the conversion work to begin 10 days later on the Ponce, which is docked in Virginia Beach.

[C. Flower]

Interesting, about the Ponce.

The commandoes will more likely be training "Al Qaeda" in the Yemen, or joining the ranks. The Yemeni opposition to Saleh seems to have the unaccountable conviction that "al Qaeda" - the US.

[Count Bobulescu]

US official fingers Khamenei for first time.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-is-prepared-to-launch-terrorist-attacks-in-us-intelligence-report-finds/2012/01/30/gIQACwGweQ_story.html?hpid=z1

The assessment signals a potentially dire new direction in the adversarial relationship between the United States and Iran, at a time when there are indications (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-military-chief-in-israel-for-talks-on-iran/2012/01/20/gIQAzywCDQ_story.html)that a covert campaign is already underway to thwart Iran’s alleged ambition to develop a nuclear weapon (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/irans-quest-to-possess-nuclear-weapons/2011/11/07/gIQAEZaZvM_gallery.html).
At the time, Obama administration officials said they were unclear on “how high up” in the Iranian leadership approval of the alleged plan extended. Clapper’s reference to Khamenei marks the first time that U.S. officials have mentioned Iran’s supreme leader in connection with the plot, signaling new belief that the alleged willingness to authorize such attacks comes directly from the top

[Sam Lord]

http://i1142.photobucket.com/albums/n611/boavista1/Iran.jpg

The stars are US military bases.

Now remind me again ... who is threatening whom ....

[Count Bobulescu]

Nothing to do with US bases, more to do with diplomacy at this stage, but your point that the Iranians have good grounds to be fearful is acknowledged.

[Count Bobulescu]

Haven’t seen much commentary on this in the European media. Big deal in US. A lot of surprise that Panetta would be so specific.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-israel-preparing-to-attack-iran/2012/02/02/gIQANjfTkQ_story.html

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has a lot on his mind these days, from cutting the defense budget to managing the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/panetta-afghanistan-withdrawl-begins-and-ends-with-politics/2012/02/01/gIQAmoaliQ_blog.html). But his biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israeli-officials-say-the-window-of-opportunity-to-strike-iran-narrowing-fast/2012/01/30/gIQABJf2cQ_story.html) over the next few months.

Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the United States could then stop them militarily.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want to leave the fate of Israel dependent on American action, which would be triggered by intelligence that Iran is building a bomb, which it hasn’t done yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak may have signaled the prospect of an Israeli attack soon when he asked last month to postpone a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise that would culminate in a live-fire phase in May. Barak apologized that Israel couldn’t devote the resources to the annual exercise this spring.

[Count Bobulescu]

US/EU SOPA has nothing on Iran.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57374594-21/iran-cuts-off-internet-access/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20&tag=nl.e703

An individual inside the country confirmed this morning that Gmail, Hotmail, and Yahoo email are no longer available. Ditto for Facebook. So far, the government has not made any announcement about the service interruption.

[Holly]

The BBC is reporting this morning that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has stated he will be making an important announcement about the latest development of Iran's nuclear program.

[fluffybiscuits]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16995727

Im sure this is going to be advances in building technologies for energy and not weapons but doubt our friends in the American military will see it that way....

[fluffybiscuits]

Iran nuke program will lead to regional nuke arms race


http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/02/10/saudi-arabia-threatens-to-go-nuclear-if-iran-does/

Saudi Arabia would launch a military nuclear program immediately if Iran successfully developed atomic weapons, The Times of London reported Friday.

While Riyadh signed an agreement with the US in 2008 stating that it would only pursue nuclear power for civil purposes, the Saudi government is likely to abandon the deal if Tehran had a nuclear bomb.

"There is no intention currently to pursue a unilateral military nuclear program but the dynamics will change immediately if the Iranians develop their own nuclear capability," a senior Saudi source said.

"Politically, it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom."
lol@ your link for that, Fox News come off it...

[C. Flower]

Yet another report that US intel agencies agree that Iran is not working on a nuclear bomb.

Someone at the Embassy should tell Eamon Gilmore next time he rings.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4194307,00.html

[Count Bobulescu]

Complimenting CF’s post above


SHOT: N.Y. Times col. 1, "U.S. AGENGIES SEE NO MOVE BY IRAN TO BUILD A BOMB: HONING TECHNICAL SKILL - New Strides Could Pave Way for Tehran to Be a Nuclear Power," by James Risen and Mark Mazzetti: "Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier ... [O]fficials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America's 16 intelligence agencies." http://nyti.ms/xGshwI (http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=09dddcd47871ae71466d021b91027e5ee6a2ad224ecec1 969868983783824a52)

(http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=09dddcd47871ae71466d021b91027e5ee6a2ad224ecec1 969868983783824a52)
--CHASER: WSJ 5-col. lead, "U.S. Bulks Up Iran Defenses: Pentagon Plans New Sea, Land Measures to Counter Any Attempt to Close Persian Gulf Oil Gateway," by Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes: "The U.S. military has notified Congress of plans to preposition new mine-detection and clearing equipment and expand surveillance capabilities in and around the strait, according to defense officials briefed on the requests, including one submitted earlier this month. The military also wants to quickly modify weapons systems on ships so they could be used against Iranian fast-attack boats, as well as shore-launched cruise missiles."


As I noted in the Israel/Iran thread yesterday US is no longer heavily dependent on Middle East oil. Since 9-11 there has been a policy to move away from it. US sticks with Saudi for strategic reasons but could substitute a good portion of Saudi if necessary India and China and Europe are much more dependent. That’s why the US is bulking up to reopen the strait if Iran closes it. No one else can do it.


Here are the top 15 suppliers of oil to the US in 2011.
ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

[Griska]

One other Stratfor official allegedly indicated a similar finding.

“Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and nuclear research projects,” he wrote on November 13, 2011. “Even if the Israelis have the capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the commandos destroyed a significant part of it.”

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/27/wikileaks-emails-indicate-stratfor-discovered-israel-already-destroyed-irans-nuclear-facilities/

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/leaked-e-mails-israel-kurds-may-have-destroyed-iranian-facilities-1.415237?localLinksEnabled=false

May explain the explosion we had been discussing.

[Kev Bar]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/27/wikileaks-emails-indicate-stratfor-discovered-israel-already-destroyed-irans-nuclear-facilities/

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/leaked-e-mails-israel-kurds-may-have-destroyed-iranian-facilities-1.415237?localLinksEnabled=false

May explain the explosion we had been discussing.

Curiously, the view of another Stratfor analyst gets less prominent coverage:

One company analyst responded dismissively to the possibility of an Israeli attack having already taken place, asking: "How and when did the Israelis destroy the 'infra' on the ground?

[Count Bobulescu]

Obama to Iran & Israel: I don’t bluff.


http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/

Dismissing a strategy of "containment" as unworkable, the president tells me it's "unacceptable" for the Islamic Republic of Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

At the White House on Monday, President Obama will seek to persuade the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to postpone whatever plans he may have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months. Obama will argue that under his leadership, the United States "has Israel's back," and that he will order the U.S. military to destroy Iran's nuclear program if economic sanctions fail to compel Tehran to shelve its nuclear ambitions.

In the most extensive interview he has given about the looming Iran crisis, Obama told me earlier this week that both Iran and Israel should take seriously the possibility of American action against Iran's nuclear facilities. "I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don't bluff." He went on, "I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say."

[Count Bobulescu]

Obama speaks to AIPAC on US-Israel-Iran continuing to speak softly with a big stick.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/05/world/middleeast/in-aipac-speech-obama-warns-against-loose-talk-of-war.html?_r=2&hp

“I do not have a policy of containment,” Mr. Obama said, to applause from the huge crowd in the cavernous hall at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center. “I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. And as I’ve made clear time and again during the course of my presidency, I will not hesitate to use force when it is necessary to defend the United States and its interests.”

But the president also made clear that he considers diplomacy, and the policy of sanctions set in motion by the United States and Europe, as the West’s best hope for getting Iran to stop short of pursuing a nuclear weapon. “Already, there is too much loose talk of war,” Mr. Obama said on Sunday. “For the sake of Israel’s security, America’s security, and the peace and security of the world, now is not the time for bluster.”

He has said repeatedly that he does not think a military strike, either by Israel or the United States, would do more than delay any Iranian nuclear program (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier).
Some perspective on Iran-Syria.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-officials-iran-is-stepping-up-lethal-aid-to-syria/2012/03/02/gIQAGR9XpR_story.html?hpid=z1

“The aid from Iran is increasing, and is increasingly focused on lethal assistance,” said one of the officials, insisting on anonymity to discuss intelligence reports from the region.

The expanded Iranian role in the conflict has been underscored by reports — supported by U.S. intelligence findings — that an Iranian operative was recently wounded while working with Syrian security forces inside the country.
The flow of military aid to Assad comes as Arab states are considering arming the regime’s opponents, raising the risk of a wider conflict that U.S. officials fear could spread to neighboring countries

[DCon]

Obama told the Israeli PM today that there is no evidence that Iran is making nuclear weapons


Yet Netanyahu left no doubt about the seriousness of Monday's talks. Looking directly at Obama, he reiterated Israel's right to take unilateral military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which the Jewish state - estimated to have several hundred nuclear warheads of its own that it refuses to acknowledge officially - views as an existential threat.


http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/05/2677326/netanyahu-tells-obama-israel-may.html#storylink=cpy

[DCon]

The BBC have a nice war mongering piece discussing Israel's attack options

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17115643

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/58708000/jpg/_58708668_israel_iran_map_624.jpg

[fluffybiscuits]

Even the former head of the IAEA said that he believed they had nuclear weapons as evidenced from http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/transcripts/2004/alahram27072004.html


ABDALLA: Some criticisms were raised on the occasion of the recent visit to Israel by Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the IAEA. In my view, some media have portrayed a picture that may be at variance with the truth when they indicated that ElBaradei was sympathetic to the Israeli position. This visit was particularly important because it came within the framework of IAEA efforts, requested from the Director General by the international community, towards the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free Middle East and to bring all nuclear installations - including Israeli ones - under the IAEA’s full-scope safeguards regime, so it was natural for Al-Ahram to approach the Director General to discuss with him several nuclear issues of a political nature relating to the region, world peace and security and technical cooperation. The dialogue with him went as follows:

[DCon]

Obama has asked Israel to delay their attack until after he is re-elected..


wo days ago Obama held a press conference in which he openly prevaricated and disinformed the world about the true nature of his meeting with Israel PM Netanyahu. Today we find what was truly discussed, courtesy of Israel's Maariv newspaper, Spiegel and Reuters, which all tell us that it was a simple case of quid pro quo, namely that Barack Obama would supply Israel with bunker-busters and refueling planes if Bibi promised to delay an Iran attack until after the presidential election. The implication is simple - avoid an oil price shock this summer and delay it until next winter when Obama will be safely in his throne for another 4 years

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-promises-bunker-busters-israel-if-netanyahu-delays-iran-invasion-until-after-us-elections

[fluffybiscuits]

Obama has asked Israel to delay their attack until after he is re-elected..



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-promises-bunker-busters-israel-if-netanyahu-delays-iran-invasion-until-after-us-elections



So more than likely an invasion by Israel is going to go ahead. There was a good article in the Guardian discussing how Iran could retaliate and they said while their missile systems are off their navy could certainly do some damage. The Iranians will Im sure use Hamas as their proxy and get back as Israel that way. The straits of Hormuz will Im sure be closed to shipping also...

[Count Bobulescu]

Jeffrey Goldberg in Bloomberg View on Netanyahu, the bluffing bad cop (http://theatlantic.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ed2d318978b7dc9b30b1f464f&id=2d9f47ab6b&e=e5c72d445c) Many are advancing the theory, Goldberg reports, that Israel's PM Netanyahu has no intention to launch an air strike on Iran, but rather he's bluffing, and working as Obama's bad cop. "I remain fairly confident that Netanyahu means it when he says that Israel would strike Iran to prevent it from going nuclear, but this third option is an interesting one, mainly because the game -- a sustained Israeli bluff -- would seem to be working so well.," Goldberg says. He describes the theory's attractions, and notes that the sanctions Obama and Netanyahu have put together show promise of working. "I recognize, too, that believing Netanyahu never intends to attack Iran by himself is dangerous. But, if true, Netanyahu is proving himself to be an adept poker player."

[Count Bobulescu]

Long excerpt from David Sanger’s new book in NYT today. Obama ordered cyber attacks against Iran.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html?_r=2&ref=world


WASHINGTON — From his first months in office, President Obama secretly ordered increasingly sophisticated attacks on the computer systems that run Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facilities, significantly expanding America’s first sustained use of cyberweapons, according to participants in the program.
Mr. Obama decided to accelerate the attacks — begun in the Bush administration and code-named Olympic Games — even after an element of the program accidentally became public in the summer of 2010 because of a programming error that allowed it to escape Iran’s Natanz plant and sent it around the world on the Internet. Computer security experts who began studying the worm, which had been developed by the United States and Israel, gave it a name: Stuxnet.

[Holly]

Although not a trustworthy newspaper, The New York Times is close enough to the Israelis and the U.S. Administration to make this story credible.

[Count Bobulescu]

Although not a trustworthy newspaper, The New York Times is close enough to the Israelis and the U.S. Administration to make this story credible.
I'd be interested in your list of "trustworthy" newspapers?

[Holly]

I'd be interested in your list of "trustworthy" newspapers?

So as not to derail this thread, I will not go into that here.

[Count Bobulescu]

So as not to derail this thread, I will not go into that here.
Then best not to make assertions about any newspaper.

[Holly]

Then best not to make assertions about any newspaper.

You are the one who posted the link to The New York Times, presumably as a credible source.

[Count Bobulescu]

You are the one who posted the link to The New York Times, presumably as a credible source.
If you don't want to derail this thread, but do want to make assertions about newspapers, you need to start a thread on the credibility-trust-untrustworthiness of newspapers. Can't have it both ways.

[C. Flower]

Long excerpt from David Sanger’s new book in NYT today. Obama ordered cyber attacks against Iran.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html?_r=2&ref=world

Flame, too ?

[Holly]

If you don't want to derail this thread, but do want to make assertions about newspapers, you need to start a thread on the credibility-trust-untrustworthiness of newspapers. Can't have it both ways.

If you do not like members to comment on your sources, quit posting links to them. You do not own this thread.

[Count Bobulescu]

Flame, too ?
No evidence........yet

[Count Bobulescu]

If you do not like members to comment on your sources, quit posting links to them. You do not own this thread.
That is the most A$$-backwards logic I've seen in a while.

1: By the time members comment on sources its too late not to post links to them.

2: The site rules actively encourage links in support, the better to avoid confusion.

3: The comment suggesting I stop posting links makes you seem like someone who would rather burn a book than face the truth.

[Count Bobulescu]

"DELISTING THE MEK: A three-judge panel for the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has ruled that Secretary of State Clinton has 120 days to either justify the State Department's classification of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) as a terrorist organization, or delist the group -- or else the Appeals Court will take the highly unusual step of delisting the group itself. ... At issue is the fate of 3,400 Iranian dissidents housed in 2 camps in Iraq. ... The MEK renounced violence in 2001, and the human rights issues in this matter have attracted a bipartisan list of former lawmakers and law enforcement officials."

[fluffybiscuits]

Long excerpt from David Sanger’s new book in NYT today. Obama ordered cyber attacks against Iran.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html?_r=2&ref=world

CB If you have time please read this article gives a fascinating insight into how the article was created and the forensics behind the worm

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/07/how-digital-detectives-deciphered-stuxnet/all/1

The worm was created using a particular piece of software to target manufacturing equipment manufactured by a specific company. From intelligence sources they knew that the manufacturing plant had a certain set up and was capable of processing nuclear material (in centrifuges). The programming language used to code it was a little known one used in industrial facilities and needed a specific knowledge that was little known outside of the US.

[fluffybiscuits]

Iran warns of lightining response if it is attacked

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/06/03/MNB51OS6N2.DTL

[Count Bobulescu]

Thanks Fluffy, the Irish are everywhere.:)


Fascinating radio interview 47 minutes, with David Sanger author of the book excerpted in the NYT piece referenced above. Focuses on the political as opposed to technical aspects of stuxnet.
Stuxnet was developed by building a replica of Natanz in several discrete sections in the US desert, in part to convince Israel that there was a viable alternative to bombing.

http://www.npr.org/2012/06/04/154282712/obamas-secret-wars-against-americas-threats

[C. Flower]

"DELISTING THE MEK: A three-judge panel for the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has ruled that Secretary of State Clinton has 120 days to either justify the State Department's classification of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) as a terrorist organization, or delist the group -- or else the Appeals Court will take the highly unusual step of delisting the group itself. ... At issue is the fate of 3,400 Iranian dissidents housed in 2 camps in Iraq. ... The MEK renounced violence in 2001, and the human rights issues in this matter have attracted a bipartisan list of former lawmakers and law enforcement officials."

The MEK feature regularly in reports on assassinations and bombings in Iran, with the backing of Israel and the US. Bless them, they were also behind the phony "stoning" reports over the last two years too.

http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CGQQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.alexanderhiggins.com%2F2012% 2F02%2F09%2Fofficials-terrorist-group-ran-israel-iran-bombings-82441%2F&ei=Zm3PT5ikC4KohAeh0LyXDA&usg=AFQjCNHiDT_m7oVSbiPeE3h80aaIBGj0QA

By any normal human standard, the MEK, Mossad, and the US State are all terror bodies.

[Count Bobulescu]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/senators-blast-now-public-cyberattack-on-iran-20120605?mrefid=site_search


Many lawmakers were incensed – for different reasons – by the recent New York Times report detailing how President Obama attempted to derail Iran’s nuclear program by secretly ordering cyberattacks on computer systems that run its enrichment facilities. Some members of Congress accused the administration of leaking the information for political gain ahead of the election and called upon Obama to appoint a special counsel to investigate. Others worried that the attack, apparently the first time the U.S. had consistently used cyberweapons to damage another country’s infrastructure, sidelines Congress’s oversight or could allow bad actors to justify their own cyberattacks. On Tuesday, a spokesperson for Carl Levin, D-Mich., announced that the Senate Armed Services Committee he chairs would hold hearings to investigate the recent leaks “pertaining to recent public reports of classified information.” Read more

[Count Bobulescu]

http://www.npr.org/2012/06/07/154454246/planned-e-u-oil-embargo-looks-set-to-squeeze-iran?ft=3&f=1001&sc=nl&cc=pmb-20120607


On July 1, the European Union says it will stop buying oil from Iran. Europe is one of the most important markets for Iran's oil, and in anticipation of the boycott, Iranian oil exports worldwide are already down by more than 25 percent.
Iran's leaders say they can weather this pressure, and so far they have refused to budge on their controversial nuclear activities, ones that prompted a series of economic sanctions.
As a result, it appears as if Iran will only face even greater difficulties when it comes to exporting oil, the lifeblood of its economy.
Iran is facing nothing but trouble in the global oil market, says Steve LeVine, energy analyst and author of The Oil and the Glory.
"It's being hit on two sides — fewer absolute sales and it's getting less money for the sales that it's making," LeVine says.
Sales to Europe are already down by a half from a year ago, and Iran is having a good deal of difficulty making up the difference, says LeVine.
"Even the countries that have been agreeable to buy Iran's oil have cut back," he says.
Iran Running Out Of Options
Iran was expecting Asian markets to increase their imports, but right now that piece of the picture looks murky.

[Count Bobulescu]

THE PROBLEM WITH PROSECUTING LEAKS. Lawmakers from both parties praised the appointment of two prosecutors to investigate recent national security leaks on Stuxnet and drones, but as The New York Times points out, taking legal action isn’t easy. “Historically, the vast majority of leak-related investigations have turned up nothing conclusive, and several of the nine that have been prosecuted — six already under the Obama administration, and just three more under all previous presidents — collapsed,” the Times reports. Part of the problem is that “there is no law against disclosing classified information, in and of itself.” Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision may be politically popular, but it’s unclear whether it will deliver any results.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/us/for-us-inquiries-on-leaks-a-difficult-road-to-prosecution.html?_r=1&ref=politics

[Count Bobulescu]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/cybersecurity-researchers-say-theyve-spotted-new-link-between-flame-stuxnet-viruses/2012/06/11/gJQAE9i0UV_story.html?hpid=z4


LONDON — Cybersecurity researchers said Monday that they’d found a link between the infrastructure-wrecking cyberweapon known as Stuxnet and the recently-discovered Flame virus — possibly offering a new clue about the latter’s origins.

Kaspersky Labs expert Alexander Gostev said in a blog post that his company had identified a similarity between a subset of the code used in Flame and another set of code used in an early version of Stuxnet, which is believed to have been aimed at Iran’s disputed nuclear program.

Kaspersky had previously said that while Flame and Stuxnet spread in similar ways, the two worked off of different coding platforms.
“It turns out we were wrong,” Gostev said. “Wrong, in that we believed Flame and Stuxnet were two unrelated projects.”

Alan Woodward, a cybersecurity researcher at the University of Surrey in southern England, backed Kaspersky’s analysis, saying that the similarity they identified “does suggest that very early on there was some sharing” between the viruses’ authors

[Count Bobulescu]

U.S. SAYS SEVEN COUNTRIES EXEMPT FROM NDAA SANCTIONS, BUT NOT CHINA. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that India, Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Turkey have all significantly reduced their volume of crude-oil purchases from Iran, meaning sanctions Congress passed through the fiscal 2012 defense authorization bill will not apply to their financial institutions. Administration officials told The New York Times that the U.S. would continue negotiations with China – the world’s No. 1 buyer of Iranian oil – after a period in which the Chinese sharply curtailed their purchases of Iranian oil during a price dispute, only later to rebound. Meanwhile, Obama determined there is enough non-Iranian oil supply to allow other countries to significantly reduce their imports of Iranian oil. Read more
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-11/u-dot-s-dot-exempts-seven-countries-from-iran-oil-sanctions

[Count Bobulescu]

US and Israel behind Flame say Western officials. Flame predates Stuxnet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-israel-developed-computer-virus-to-slow-iranian-nuclear-efforts-officials-say/2012/06/19/gJQA6xBPoV_story.html?hpid=z1


The United States and Israel jointly developed a sophisticated computer virus nicknamed Flame that collected critical intelligence in preparation for cyber-sabotage attacks aimed at slowing Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, according to Western officials with knowledge of the effort.

The massive piece of malware was designed to secretly map Iran’s computer networks and monitor the computers of Iranian officials, sending back a steady stream of intelligence used to enable an ongoing cyberwarfare campaign, according to the officials.

The emerging details about Flame provide new clues about what is believed to be the first sustained campaign of cyber-sabotage against an adversary of the United States.

“This is about preparing the battlefield for another type of covert action,” said one former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official, who added that Flame and Stuxnet were elements of a broader assault that continues today. “Cyber collection against the Iranian program is way further down the road than this.”

Flame came to light last month after Iran detected a series of cyberattacks on its oil industry. The disruption was directed by Israel in a unilateral operation that apparently caught its U.S. partners offguard, according to several U.S. and Western officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity

There had been speculation that the United States had a role in developing Flame, but the collaboration on the virus between Washington and Israel has not been previously confirmed. Commercial security researchers last week reported that Flame contained some of the same code as Stuxnet. Experts described the overlap as DNA-like evidence that the two sets of malware were parallel projects run by the same entity.

[Count Bobulescu]

TEHRAN — With downgraded nuclear talks with world powers set to begin Tuesday, there are growing signs in Iran that Western sanctions are hurting the nation’s economy and alarming its decision-makers.

Javad Karimi, a member of parliament’s Commission for National Intelligence and Foreign Policy, said Monday: “There is a plan in parliament to stop tankers that are carrying oil bound for the U.S., E.U. and Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. . . . This is a retaliation against those countries that sanction our oil.”
As of Sunday, 100 members of Iran’s 290-seat parliament had signed the measure.http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iranian-authorities-acknowledge-impact-of-sanctions/2012/07/02/gJQA1hDcIW_story.html

REAL WORLD - N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "U.S. ADDS FORCES IN PERSIAN GULF, A SIGNAL TO IRAN - DIPLOMACY AT IMPASSE," by Thom Shanker, Eric Schmitt and David E. Sanger:
"The Navy has doubled the number of minesweepers assigned to the region, to eight vessels, in what military officers describe as a purely defensive move. 'The message to Iran is, "Don't even think about it,"' one senior Defense Department official said. 'Don't even think about closing the strait. We'll clear the mines. Don't even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We'll put them on the bottom of the gulf.'" http://nyti.ms/LumsIYhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/world/middleeast/us-adds-forces-in-persian-gulf-a-signal-to-iran.html?pagewanted=all

[fluffybiscuits]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iranian-authorities-acknowledge-impact-of-sanctions/2012/07/02/gJQA1hDcIW_story.html

REAL WORLD - N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "U.S. ADDS FORCES IN PERSIAN GULF, A SIGNAL TO IRAN - DIPLOMACY AT IMPASSE," by Thom Shanker, Eric Schmitt and David E. Sanger: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/world/middleeast/us-adds-forces-in-persian-gulf-a-signal-to-iran.html?pagewanted=all

The Straits of Hormuz are Iranian territory.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/327858

So what if they want to close them, US should quit sticking its nose in. Bullyboy tactics and words to the effect of "my dad can beat up your dad" serve no purpose other than to stoke the flames. Economic sanctions are damaging enough..

[Count Bobulescu]

The Straits of Hormuz are Iranian territory.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/327858

So what if they want to close them, US should quit sticking its nose in. Bullyboy tactics and words to the effect of "my dad can beat up your dad" serve no purpose other than to stoke the flames. Economic sanctions are damaging enough..
Fluffy, it’s well established that the primary reason the US would intervene to keep the Straight open is to benefit the Asians and Europeans who are much more dependent on Gulf oil than is the US. Other navies do not have the capacity to keep the straight open, so it falls to the US. Your “so what” if the Iranians close it is a bit naive.

[fluffybiscuits]

Fluffy, it’s well established that the primary reason the US would intervene to keep the Straight open is to benefit the Asians and Europeans who are much more dependent on Gulf oil than is the US. Other navies do not have the capacity to keep the straight open, so it falls to the US. Your “so what” if the Iranians close it is a bit naive.

So let me get this right. US is going to invade the waters of another soverign nation so that they can keep the world in cheap oil and lifestyle we are accustomed to?

[Count Bobulescu]

So let me get this right. US is going to invade the waters of another soverign nation so that they can keep the world in cheap oil and lifestyle we are accustomed to? That's about the height of it.

[fluffybiscuits]

That's about the height of it.

Virtue of the American actions, they are defenders of capitalism...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-blames-france-germany-intelligence-for-killing-nuclear-scientist/2012/07/06/gJQAbYQRRW_story.html

There is accusations floating about that nuclear scientists have been killed by French and German securitiy services but this is unlikely...

[Count Bobulescu]

Here’s a call in today’s WaPo by an ex Bushie to get tough and threaten to spill the gunpowder. Not likely to happen, but these guys are still out there talkin tough.


By Michael Singh, Published: July 8
Michael Singh is managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. From 2005 to 2008, he worked on Middle East issues at the National Security Council.
Predictably, last week’s “expert level” talks between Iran and world powers were no more fruitful than previous rounds, leaving little optimism for a negotiated resolution to the nuclear crisis anytime soon. Western policymakers, buoyed by their success in reducing Iran’s oil exports , appear content to give sanctions more time to work, in the hope that once Tehran feels their full effect negotiators will return to the table, more ready to compromise.
The evidence, however, suggests that sanctions’ effect on oil exports will not increase over time.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/oil-sanctions-against-iran-will-not-be-enough/2012/07/08/gJQAjW8pWW_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines

[Count Bobulescu]

The Ponce is in place.


WASHINGTON — One of the Navy’s oldest transport ships, now converted into one of its newest platforms for warfare, arrived in waters off Bahrain late last week, a major addition to the enlarged presence of American forces in the Persian Gulf designed as a counter to Iran.

The keel for the ship, the Ponce, was cast in 1966, and the vessel, nearing the end of its service, was to have been scrapped. But the Ponce was reborn as a floating forward base for staging important military operations across the region — the latest example of the new American way of war.
The first mission of the reborn Ponce was designed to be low profile and defensive, as an operations hub for mine clearing in the Strait of Hormuz, a counter to threats from Tehran to close the vital commercial waterway. In that role, the Ponce will be a launching pad for helicopters, a home to underwater diver teams and a seaborne service station providing fuel and maintenance for minesweeping ships.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/world/middleeast/the-navy-ship-ponce-reflects-the-new-united-states-way-of-war.html

[Count Bobulescu]

Another tightening of the ratchet.


A federal grand jury has indicted Iranian and Chinese nationals on charges stemming from an alleged plot help Iran acquire advanced metals and other sensitive U.S. technology for its nuclear program, the Justice Department announced Friday.
The indictment of the two men was the latest to target what U.S. officials say is a global procurement network operated by Iran to obtain needed parts for its uranium enrichment plants as well as its most sophisticated missiles. At least some of materials appear to have made it to Iran, according to law enforcement officials familiar with the investigation.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/justice-probe-nets-iran-nuclear-procurement-ring/2012/07/13/gJQAybiniW_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines


Federal investigators are probing a major Chinese telecom firm and its U.S. subsidiary for allegedly selling banned U.S. surveillance equipment to Iran, according to a newly disclosed document.
The investigations into ZTE and its Texas subsidiary, ZTE U.S.A., by the FBI and Commerce Department reflect two major U.S. policy concerns — blunting Iran’s appetite for advanced technology that could be used in warfare and understanding the activities of Chinese companies in the United States.http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/chinese-telecom-firm-zte-probed-for-alleged-sale-of-us-surveillance-equipment-to-iran/2012/07/13/gJQA6mKUiW_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines

[Andrew49]

A US ship has fired on a boat off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), US officials say.

The USNS Rappahannock fired on a vessel after it 'ignored warnings and rapidly approached the ship', the US Navy says. There is no confirmation of casualties although a UAE official said an Indian fisherman had been killed and three more wounded. Source (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18862480)

The boat appeared to be a civilian vessel about 30ft (9m) long and powered by three outboard motors, the report said.

[fluffybiscuits]

A US ship has fired on a boat off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), US officials say.

The USNS Rappahannock fired on a vessel after it 'ignored warnings and rapidly approached the ship', the US Navy says. There is no confirmation of casualties although a UAE official said an Indian fisherman had been killed and three more wounded. Source (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18862480)

The boat appeared to be a civilian vessel about 30ft (9m) long and powered by three outboard motors, the report said.

Bit like bombing the Chinese embassy in Belgrade years ago and then apologising. Dylan Moran was articulate when he put it like

The US and world are flat mates and the world says to the US, "You broke my stuff again" and the US responds, "Sawee I'll you a new one..."...

[Andrew49]

The Obama administration's top security official has briefed Israel's prime minister on US plans for a possible attack on Iran, an Israeli newspaper reports. The Haaretz daily says National Security Adviser Tom Donilon sought to reassure Israel that Washington is prepared to act militarily should diplomacy and sanctions fail to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear enrichment program. Source (http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/us-presents-israel-with-iran-strike-plan/story-e6frfkui-1226438010049)

Full Text is only available to subscribers!!! (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-presented-netanyahu-with-contingency-plan-for-iran-strike.premium-1.454235)

[Holly]

Mitt Romney in Israel today gave support to Israel in the event that it attacked Iran should that country develop the "capability" of developing an atomic weapon. The Jewish lobby could make the difference in the American election. There are no votes in promoting the Palestinian cause.

[Dr. FIVE]

Fisk - Syrian war of lies and hypocrisy

The West's real target here is not Assad's brutal regime but his ally, Iran, and its chemical weapons


http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-syrian-war-of-lies-and-hypocrisy-7985012.html

[fluffybiscuits]

Mitt Romney in Israel today gave support to Israel in the event that it attacked Iran should that country develop the "capability" of developing an atomic weapon. The Jewish lobby could make the difference in the American election. There are no votes in promoting the Palestinian cause.

Morally there is but there is a corrupt elite in the American establishment. The abuse of Palestinians goes on but tis ignored. There is not one back bone in American politics . Dont forget Im sure there is profit to be made somewhere along the lines as well...

Meanwhile Iran is losing $133m a week because of sanctions

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-01/iran-loses-133-million-a-day-from-sanctions-as-oil-buoys-obama

Again not a moral backbone among a lot of those supposed christians..

[Count Bobulescu]

David Ignatius in The Washington Post on negotiations with Iran. Negotiations with Iran to prevent a war have been on recess during Ramadan, but even when they start up again, Ignatius doesn't hear "any hint of a breakthrough that would ease the war fever," he says. There's still "a significant gap" between Iran and P5+1 countries, the U.S., Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany. An interesting proposal: Iran could agree to a "zero stockpile" of low-enriched fuel and cap enrichment at 5 percent. Any uranium would be converted immediately into fuel rods and exported. "This intriguing proposal lacks official Iranian support, but it would address Israel’s biggest concern and would surely interest U.S. officials."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-seeking-to-cool-war-fever-over-iran/2012/08/21/ab6f110c-ebcb-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_story.html

[Sam Lord]

[B]
"This intriguing proposal lacks official Iranian support, but it would address Israel’s biggest concern and would surely interest U.S. officials."



The only thing that will interest US officials is a regime subservient to the US.

[TotalMayhem]

The Jewish lobby could make the difference in the American election. There are no votes in promoting the Palestinian cause.

There are votes in promoting Diageo. ;)

http://i.imgur.com/XJ16a.jpg

[Count Bobulescu]

The only thing that will interest US officials is a regime subservient to the US.
“only subservient” seems a bit harsh Sam. Whether speaking about Iran, or talking more generally, I’d credit the US with interests beyond that.

Granted, the “outside the US perception" changes when there is a big ideological shift in the White House as has occurred in the Clinton-Bush-Obama continuum. Some would allege that there was little or no ideological shift in that continuum. I would call that view naive.
Even that bastion of anti-US rhetoric the UN is concerned about Iran. Otherwise why send nuclear inspectors?

[Count Bobulescu]

Right winger Charles Krauthammer has an interesting column today on the proposals of Anthony Cordesman.


What to do? The sagest advice comes from Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Cordesman is a hardheaded realist — severely critical of the Bush administration’s conduct of the Iraq war, skeptical of the “war on terror,” dismissive of the strategic importance of Afghanistan, and a believer that “multilateralism and soft power must still be the rule and not the exception.”

He may have found his exception. “There are times when the best way to prevent war is to clearly communicate that it is possible,” he argues. Today, the threat of a U.S. attack is not taken seriously. Not by the region. Not by Iran. Not by the Israelis, who therefore increasingly feel forced to act before Israel’s more limited munitions — far less powerful and effective than those in the U.S. arsenal — can no longer penetrate Iran’s ever-hardening facilities.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-the-cordesman-criteria/2012/08/23/b0a618b6-ed45-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_story.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions

More on Iran from today’s NYT.


WASHINGTON — International nuclear inspectors will soon report that Iran has installed hundreds of new centrifuges in recent months and may also be speeding up production of nuclear fuel while negotiations with the United States and its allies have ground to a near halt, according to diplomats and experts briefed on the findings.

Almost all of the new equipment is being installed in a deep underground site on a military base near Qum that is considered virtually invulnerable to military attack. It would suggest that a boast by senior Iranian leaders late last month — that the country had added upward of 1,000 new machines to its installation despite Western sabotage — may be true.“
For now, the talks are dead in the water,” one senior official said Thursday.
Mr. Obama and his staff have been trying to avoid a crisis over Iran that would unfold in the last months of the presidential election. But the report, expected to be the last by the I.A.E.A. before Election Day, will lay out a stark reality: Despite increasingly painful sanctions, and a covert program called Olympic Games that aimed to slow the Iranian program with cyberattacks, Iran has made substantial progress in producing enriched uranium in recent years — from about one bomb’s worth when Mr. Obama took office in 2009 to the equivalent of about five bombs’ worth today.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/world/middleeast/signs-that-iran-is-speeding-up-nuclear-work.html?ref=world&pagewanted=all

[fluffybiscuits]

Scaring Iran into backing down? Has it not been tried already and Iran has more or less stood up to the Americans and more or less told them to sod off?

[Count Bobulescu]

Another Way?

Najmedin Meshkati and Guive Mirfendereski in the Los Angeles Times on a relationship with Iran Sanctioning won't change Iran's behavior and would result in further radicalization. Instead, the U.S. should try to build a relationship and use baby steps to overcome its "idealogical angst" with Iran, just as the U.S. did with the Soviet Union and China. Allowing Iran to slowly purchase goods and services will benefit both countries economically. "A fresh and bold approach to U.S.-Iran relations is not only desirable but imperative for the United States' national interests in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa."


As the gathering of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran demonstrates, Iran is isolated mostly in the minds of some U.S. policymakers and their cheerleading pundits. It is U.S. interests that suffer as a consequence. By not reckoning with Iran as a major player in the Middle East, the U.S. deprives the American private sector of a lucrative market, indirectly keeps Israel's security in a state of limbo and deepens the stagnation in the Arab-Israeli peace process. A fresh and bold approach to U.S.-Iran relations is not only desirable but imperative for the United States' national interests in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-meshkati-iran-isolation-20120828,0,3764322.story

[fluffybiscuits]

Is it the old adage, "keep your friends close and your enemies closer?" which applies here? The US wants to be seen as a leading influence in Iran and other spheres of influence and should follow the policy of the Putin administration (Im speaking positive of Putin what next!!). Arms deals, stand up for them in the UN, supply them with knowledge etc. Obama's policies on Iran hurt the working man and the latest in these sanctions is computer gamers having their access to World of Warcraft cut off. Give the Iranians an incentive to disarm or perhaps encourage them to look at alternative forms of power like renewable energy. Dangle a carrot and dont use the stick to beat them before they have taken the carrot.

[Count Bobulescu]

Answers to All Your Questions About Iran, Israel, Bibi and Obama!


Question: So, is Israel going to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the presidential election on November 6?

Answer: Maybe. But probably not. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak would have ordered a strike already if not for the determined opposition of President Obama. That opposition is undiminished. And Netanyahu and Barak may now be thinking that holding off -- agreeing to Obama's wishes, in other words -- may buy them some favor with the President, should he be reelected.This runs counter to an earlier belief, that an Israeli attack before the election would put Obama in a box, that he would have to support Israel for fear of alienating its supporters in America.http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/answers-to-all-your-questions-about-iran-israel-bibi-and-obama/261906/

[Count Bobulescu]

Canada has just broken off diplomatic relations with Iran, citing threat to global peace.


Canada has closed its embassy in Iran and is expelling all remaining Iranian diplomats in Ottawa, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said Friday.
It wasn’t immediately clear why Canada was choosing now to sever diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic. In explaining the move, Mr. Baird gave a laundry list of reasons: Iran’s current support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, its nuclear program, its long-time support for organizations Ottawa considers terrorist groups, its threats against Israel, its human-rights record and even the 1979 hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/citing-threat-to-global-peace-canada-closes-embassy-in-iran/article4526167/

[Count Bobulescu]

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, did not publicly (if indirectly) criticize the Obama Administration because he is trying to tip the election to Mitt Romney. He criticized the Obama Administration because he believes the President won't actually stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

Netanyahu doesn't appear to understand three aspects of Obama's position on Iran:


Obama is committed, and has been committed, long before he became president, to a vision of a nuclear-free world. He is a militantly opposed to proliferation. He believes that if Iran were to go nuclear, the world's most volatile region would quickly become the scene of a nuclear arms race. He has said many times that this is completely unacceptable to him.

Obama has stated clearly, and repeatedly, that a nuclear Iran would represent a "profound" national security threat to the United States. Nothing in his behavior suggests he does not actually believe this to be true. He understands that competent presidents do not go about identifying profound national security threats and then ignoring them.

Obama understands that his presidency will be judged a failure if Iran goes nuclear. He has gone on record many times promising the American people, and the world, that Iran will not get a bomb. If Iran succeeds, he will have failed, catastrophically. His legacy will be shattered, his credibility will be destroyed, and he will bequeath to his party a reputation for weakness and fecklessness that will not be shed for a generation. For these reasons alone, Obama knows he cannot let Iran go nuclear.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/09/what-netanyahu-doesnt-understand-about-obama/262381/

[Dr. FIVE]

hmmm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19665225


Pro-Israel adverts that equate jihad with savagery are to appear in 10 of New York's subway stations next week, after officials failed to block them.

The ad says: "In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Support Israel Defeat Jihad."

New York's transportation agency barred the ads citing demeaning language.

But a judge ruled in July for the American Freedom Defense Initiative (FDI), the group behind the campaign.

[Count Bobulescu]

IDG News Service - The Iranian government appears to have blocked access to Google's search engine and Gmail webmail service from inside Iran, according to Internet users there.

A security researcher going by the Twitter handle of @0xal reported late Sunday that access to Gmail and Google had been restricted", and later said that he could only access the services using a VPN or a proxy.

However, he later reported that it is still possible to access Google via some IP addresses rather than a hostname.

"Both Gmail and google.com are blocked since last night, but Gmail is not blocked in some mobile operators," he said via direct Twitter message.
Regional news site Your Middle East said its Tehran correspondent was no longer able to access the services. The site, and other news agencies, said that the block had been confirmed by Abdolsamad Khoram Abadi, the secretary of an official group responsible for detecting illegal Internet content. The move was made in response to demands from the Iranian people, he told the news outlets.
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9231628/Iran_blocks_access_to_Gmail_and_Google_Internet_us ers_say

More.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/09/iran-google-gmail-blocked.html

[Count Bobulescu]

Panic in Tehran


October 2, 2012
Large crowds of anxious Iranians gathered in Tehran on Sunday and Monday at foreign exchange offices — some of which had shuttered their doors — as Iran's currency continues its free fall.
From Sunday to Monday, the rial lost nearly one-third of its value against the dollar — and the decline appears to have continued Tuesday.
Most economists say it's the very tough economic and banking sanctions against Iran, as well as an embargo on Iranian oil sales, that are responsible for the currency collapse. Iran's government is blaming currency speculators and what it's calling "defrauders."

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/02/162156785/panic-rises-in-iran-as-currency-plunges-to-new-lows


http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286450

[Count Bobulescu]

Maybe there was more than one reason for the panic.



IN THE LOOP: Iranian news service cites faux Onion story on poll finding Ahmadinejad more popular than Obama
Fars News Agency, described as "Iran's leading independent news agency," apparently was the latest in a proud tradition to mistake an Onion story for the real deal.
» Read full article

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/iranian-news-service-cites-faux-onion-story-on-poll-finding-ahmadinejad-more-popular-than-obama/2012/09/28/df07e492-0987-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_blog.html?wpisrc=nl_pmpolitics

[Count Bobulescu]

I
ran says its offshore oil and gas platforms have been targeted for cyberattacks in recent weeks, but that they managed to successfully repel the attempts to bring down their drilling stations. The head of information technology for the Iranian Offshore Oil Company blamed the attacks on "the regime occupying Jerusalem and a few other countries," but claims that no damage was done. None of the usual suspects (Israel and the United States) is talking.

While there has been much worrying about a possible air battle between Israel and Iran, it appears that their war is already well underway in the digital realm. The Iranian nuclear program has already been hit by malicious computer programs several times and the nation is trying to build its own private internet to combat security concerns. (And maybe keep its own people in line.)

Now the oil industry, which is beleaguered by international sanctions, is under assault as yet other avenue for undermining the already struggling Iranian economy. (A pipeline between Iran and Turkey was also hit by a blast today, but that looks more like an attack on Turkey by Kurdish separatists.) No matter who is really to blame it has become more obvious than ever that when nations do battle from now, computer warfare will be just as important as guns and bombs.

Of course, this stealth war won't remain stealthy forever if, as some have speculated, that mysterious drone that was shot down over Israel this weekend actually came from Tehran. Don't worry. The old ways of fighting wars are still pretty popular too.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/10/08/world/middleeast/08reuters-iran-cyber.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes

[DCon]

Cammy baby has an itcfhy trigger finger

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A6pv3bWCIAAX0PD.jpg

[Andrew49]

Iranian authorities on Jan. 2 advised the 1.5 million residents of Isfahan to leave the city if they can because air pollution has reached emergency levels. (BBC Radio, Jan. 2 - 0850) Tehran's Air Quality Control Company also warned Jan. 2 that air pollution in the capital has also reached alarming levels, and ordered elementary schools and daycare centers closed in the city due to heavy smog.

Source (http://www.ww4report.com/node/11848)

There are links within the source above which verify the story to some degree or another - but I did read one right-wing report (http://freebeacon.com/iran-to-citizens-flee-isfahan/) linking the evacuation to a radiation leak!

[Count Bobulescu]

.

Iran Cools Nuclear Work as Vote Looms

 By JAY SOLOMON


WASHINGTON—Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to keep Iran's nuclear program within limits demanded by Israel for now, according to senior U.S., European and Israeli officials, in a move they believe is designed to avert an international crisis during an Iranian election year.

With a vote set for June, Mr. Khamenei is eager to place a leader more aligned with his positions than current Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, without sparking a repeat of the nationwide unrest that followed a 2009 vote, these officials said.

U.S. and European officials have worried Mr. Khamenei might challenge Israel and the U.S. over the nuclear issue to consolidate his political position. But instead of pressing an agenda that could heighten tensions between Tehran and the international community, the opposite is happening, for the time being, these officials said.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324883604578396970564613516.html?m od=djemITP_h

[Count Bobulescu]

Time for a new approach on Iran. A new report due out this morning from the Atlantic Council says it's time to get a little more pragmatic with Iran, and features way to reach out to the Iranian people regardless of what happens with nuclear talks. Suggestions include tweaking sanctions and stationing Americans in Tehran to process visas.

Four themes, according to the execsum: One: "Even while ensuring that nuclear-related sanctions are made more effective, the U.S. and its allies should introduce new measures to augment people-to-people ties, support Iran's democratic evolution, and facilitate trade in?food, medicine, and medical supplies;" Two: "Diminishing Iran's ability to hurt the interests of the US and its allies in the region;" Three: "Stopping and reversing Iran's progression toward a nuclear weapons capability through negotiations, including direct bilateral talks; and four: "Engaging the Iranian people by increasing outreach through media, technology, academic, cultural, and sports exchanges, and direct diplomatic access." Read the report here. (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001zLvbaqAPqpBErsS6rZZSBmERG8Nn_WZ06YW7dz LYde01YJrOH7AbDOIX9Azrzop4uiOTncogsTh2eS9e1fwPjkTf dGIZXLkiEF4QY1qDQK35YO4ScuAtxSiOv8svnYlSDKm5by6k4A AdzSLnK9Pfrg==)

[Count Bobulescu]

Iran has announced a new plan (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001YaUydsZZBo0goROEMjNafUeJ1FO9iFEzknCTyR d3ytxW-sG64vM97uYuDCZ4JSk1mV5o5QAZocGqcigUq7TXgwvV71Rb-i44OFGlvCC-1H-zq6wW4okgjon-IKJDJJwBWWGNUZlQ3rhWAAuxao-lileO-XbjGRYhZk-S_Kn0DhdZDUaih8Csv8JZC0hUHuPQs5f26KWZzBlairgJZnGeY dCaQunxVG0AYw0o6r18va2TewYWC-0voYs6BGV9Uk-9AtkxaTm5Pn8=) for its nuclear program.


ALMATY, Kazakhstan — As negotiations resumed here on Friday between Iran and the six world powers demanding that it curb its nuclear program, Iran said it had put forward a new “comprehensive proposal” that it hoped would “establish a new bedrock for cooperation.”

The other negotiators, however, described Iran’s statement as a bewildering surprise and said they had not received any concrete new proposal. An afternoon negotiating session ended with little sign of additional clarity, and though officials said the talks would continue on Saturday, they seemed to have hit a roadblock.