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Anti-Coalition
04-11-2011, 10:07 AM
Something tells me that the Labour will go the way of the Green Party in Government, being obviously the weaker partner. In fact, a lot of things tell me that. Don't forget, we are not dealing with a situation here where we have two similar parties working together. Labour and Fine Gael and diametrically opposed, in terms of political theory. Fine Gael is right wing, and Labour is left, and with Fine Gael the dominant partner, they are flexing their right-wing muscles, now that they have finally gotten into Government. Bit by bit Labour will first alienate all their core voters, and then the broader softer support will collapse, the more it becomes apparent that they are just lapdogs to Fine Gael.

The environment is one area where Fine Gael are going to go to town, reversing planning law restrictions, ignoring climate change, delisting monuments, etc. All totally anathema to Labour, and particularly Gilmore's principles.

In criminal law, we already saw Fine Gael lead the way in terms of trying to set up a new court system.

Don't forget there was talk of ending Irish neutrality, which Labour will abhor.

I could give more examples, but I won't go on and on here. Obviously, from my stage name here I am philosophically opposed to coalition Governments, and I am certain this one is going to prove me right again.

I look forward to hearing people's predictions on this. For me, it's not a question of "if" but "when".

The interesting question is what can Labour do to stop the rot?

culmore
04-11-2011, 10:40 AM
Labour on the way up. just won Presidential and bye election

disability student
04-11-2011, 10:48 AM
Labour on the way up. just won Presidential and bye election

It's only a blip. Btw, MDH resigned from the Labour party. It's the start of beginning of the end for Labour which i agree with anti-coaltion's comments.

4 more harsh budgets on the way, austerity programme not working and no job stimulus scheme. They lacked ideas as they wanted to be seen as a 'goodboy' or good model' country re non burning of the bondholders. There is a long long way to go before the GE.

Anti-Coalition
04-11-2011, 10:49 AM
Labour on the way up. just won Presidential and bye election

Oh yes, they are riding a natural high right now. But, then again, the Government is yet to actually DO anything. So far, its pretty much been all talk.

The Budget will soon change all that...

antiestablishmentarian
04-11-2011, 11:18 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJi-K6nYS_g

Joe Higgins here sticking the boot into Labour- 'What is the point of the Labour Party?' Sounds like they're refighting the expulsion of Militant again in the second half of the video :D

unspecific
04-11-2011, 04:44 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJi-K6nYS_g

Joe Higgins here sticking the boot into Labour- 'What is the point of the Labour Party?' Sounds like they're refighting the expulsion of Militant again in the second half of the video :D

Magnificent.

C. Flower
04-11-2011, 05:10 PM
We are not going to see a replay of the FF/Green scenario. There is no one to hand over to so easily.

Baron von Biffo
04-11-2011, 05:36 PM
We are not going to see a replay of the FF/Green scenario. There is no one to hand over to so easily.

FF/SF. Or even FG/SF.

Dr. FIVE
04-11-2011, 05:49 PM
The Phoenix had a good line the other week.


However, backbenchers’ main complaint was directed at their coalition partners, Fine Gael, whose ministers they accused of outmanoeuvring Labour with their greater PR resources and willingness to spin different types of announcements. As one TD put it, good news is Fine Gael news from one of their ministers while bad news was coalition or, even worse, Labour news.

They have definitely been a few steps behind FG since February. Their contrasting fortunes this month might balance things a bit but both parties facing the prospect of every decision of their term being unpopular. FG will have to raise taxes and Lab will have to cut. Protecting their own narrow interests and donors wasn't enough for FF and this crowd will arguably have "tougher decisions" to make. Things are going to get far worse and the amount of people to **** off far outweighs the number of loyal tribal voters. On that point, privatisation will do them in. It suits FG and their ******** voters but there are a lot of deluded labour hacks who still think their party are going to stand against that kind of thing.

Celebrating the centenary next year.
They will wave the red flag and salute Connelly and Larkin while somewhere in the background the vultures will be asset stripping the country.

Anti-Coalition
04-11-2011, 09:23 PM
We are not going to see a replay of the FF/Green scenario. There is no one to hand over to so easily.

I just can't see FG compromising on anything, and sooner or later it will take it's toll on Labour

C. Flower
04-11-2011, 11:59 PM
I just can't see FG compromising on anything, and sooner or later it will take it's toll on Labour

Both Labour and FG have a zest for what they are doing. FF in comparison tried to delay and to fudge it.

From the time of the last election, I've said that the assumption that Labour would go the Green trajectory could not be assumed.

There was no serious resistance from outside to Labour going into that coalition - it was "ah sure isn't that what Labour does."

So they are in and people aren't surprised at what they are doing.

The election results showed that it is FG not Labour that is carrying the can for coalition decisions.

Anti-Coalition
22-11-2011, 09:46 AM
Both Labour and FG have a zest for what they are doing. FF in comparison tried to delay and to fudge it.

I disagree. FG/Lab haven't done anything yet, except compete over the presidency. The budget will be their first test, and it already looks like Labour are in trouble, being told to compromise on many core principles and promises.

The Irish Times:today -[URL="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1122/1224307949412.html"Labour's promises refuse to go away[/URL] story today shows how far they are bending. Education cuts are also a broken promise. And the closure of nursing homes is just suicide for them.


From the time of the last election, I've said that the assumption that Labour would go the Green trajectory could not be assumed.

There was no serious resistance from outside to Labour going into that coalition - it was "ah sure isn't that what Labour does."

So they are in and people aren't surprised at what they are doing.


The Government was elected by default. Neither were popular enough to go it alone. They have no mandate really, and although they might seem like predicable bedfellows, they are even more opposite than FF and Greens were, being from deeply left/right traditions.

And then there is Kenny, who is not for bending, on anything, and whose ego has reached Mount Everest proportions.

I don't see thus coalition making it to a second budget, and if t does, it will be at Labour's expense.



The election results showed that it is FG not Labour that is carrying the can for coalition decisions.

Well, I think it showed we have move from the Green Mudguard to the Red Mudguard, and the tyres are going to blow again.

Dr. FIVE
23-11-2011, 01:16 AM
http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/5442/lqlab.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/265/lqlab.jpg/)

People Korps
23-11-2011, 02:26 AM
http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/5442/lqlab.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/265/lqlab.jpg/)

Kellher has a bit of wit ....but AC is obviously correct as the budget will prove the core values (supposed) of Irish Labour are out the window laving the door open to Gnley time Christian right wing fundamentalism rather than the fractured harder left

People Korps
23-11-2011, 02:42 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJi-K6nYS_g

Joe Higgins here sticking the boot into Labour- 'What is the point of the Labour Party?' Sounds like they're refighting the expulsion of Militant again in the second half of the video :D

Higgins put the wind up the Stickie Gilmore there amazing the chortling of the Labour back bench they wont even let their own leader speak.....Ac has it right I feel.

Dr. FIVE
24-11-2011, 01:46 AM
Here's a “Attitudes and Perceptions towards the Labour Party” survey lol

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/9VRSN9R


Have a click and tell them they're rubbish.

Shaadi
24-11-2011, 09:18 AM
Labour won't go the way of the Green Party, they'll die slowly instead. It'll take two or three General Elections for them to become irrelevant in Irish politics. It could have been the opposite, Labour were in the 30% in polls at one stage and fell back because people don't have faith in their leadership. They have the interests of the PS unions as their no. 1 priority, if that was just to protect the lower tiers of the Civil Service the majority of people would accept it. They are defending a system that allows the Top Civil Servants to earn silly money while attacking the poor and unemployed with enthusiasm. They will have alienated the working class section of their vote by their attacks on the poor and will drive the floating voters that they got from FFs collapse into the hands of SF/ULA and even back to FF. The lesson of Sean Gallaghers strong performance in the Presidential Election is that there is a strong block of voters who reject the snobbery and condescension of FG/LAB.

Times are getting increasingly tough, the honeymoon is over for the new Govt. If they are going to let people literally go without while letting those at the top of the Civil Service keep bleeding the public purse, then they both will be hammered by the voters next Local and European Elections. That will give all the opposition parties including FF lots of new councillors, leaving those parties sitting pretty in the run up to the next General Election. FG may be able to hold their vote by appealing to the Thatcherite section of the electorate. Labour will have no CPA agreement to buy the PS vote in 2016 when the bailout money will be long gone, Labour will be lucky to get 10% in the 2016 GE leaving them behind both FF and SF. Once FF and SF get ahead of Labour that's curtains for Labour, FF who should be dead will become a force again and SF will keep growing now that they are big enough to be something other than a niche party.

The next Govt will be FG/FF, they share the same political philosophy. Labour will go into opposition and lick their wounds while SF consolidate their vote by acting as the opposition. Labour will be left looking like FF are now, criticising policies that they themselves were implementing.

Anti-Coalition
24-11-2011, 10:31 AM
Labour won't go the way of the Green Party, they'll die slowly instead. It'll take two or three General Elections for them to become irrelevant in Irish politics....

... Labour will have no CPA agreement to buy the PS vote in 2016 when the bailout money will be long gone, Labour will be lucky to get 10% in the 2016 GE leaving them behind both FF and SF.
.

Good analysis. But even your subsequent analysis shows that it is the next GE that will be the body blow to Labour. Naturally, they won't be wiped off the face of Irish politics as quickly as the Greens, purely because of their size. But it is the present coalition which they entered, much in the way the Greens did with FF, that will decimate them.

palme
24-11-2011, 11:10 AM
Good analysis. But even your subsequent analysis shows that it is the next GE that will be the body blow to Labour. Naturally, they won't be wiped off the face of Irish politics as quickly as the Greens, purely because of their size. But it is the present coalition which they entered, much in the way the Greens did with FF, that will decimate them.

I suspect Labour will split before the next election, with the real membership and the backbenchers forming a Real Labour Party, leaving a few ex-ministers and their personal followings in possession of a hollowed out husk.

Labour will survive in some shape of from because it represents European leftism whcih , despite the relentless sneering trendy young, represents the highest point of political civilisation since the dawn of time. The Irsih Green movement is by contrast doomed, since it represents nothing. Can you believe they learned niothing at all from their disastrous stay in government. They elected Ryan as leader , the most clueless apologist for neo-liberalism that ever appplied for membership of any Green movement anywhere? He is still defending the guarantee, which in the long run may be the single most damaging decision to the environment since the Green movement was founded. While the economic ripple effects of that illiterate decision is still with us, (and it will be for decades) nothing Green will approach anywhere near the top of any political agenda.

barrym
24-11-2011, 11:18 AM
Whats this "will" they have.....

Griska
24-11-2011, 01:32 PM
There will be a lot of high profile retirements at the end of this term, leaving the younger members to face the well deserved sh1tstorm.
They are a disgrace and the working class should shun them en masse.

Anti-Coalition
24-11-2011, 01:49 PM
I suspect Labour will split before the next election, with the real membership and the backbenchers forming a Real Labour Party, leaving a few ex-ministers and their personal followings in possession of a hollowed out husk.

Labour will survive in some shape of from because it represents European leftism whcih , despite the relentless sneering trendy young, represents the highest point of political civilisation since the dawn of time. The Irsih Green movement is by contrast doomed, since it represents nothing. Can you believe they learned niothing at all from their disastrous stay in government. They elected Ryan as leader , the most clueless apologist for neo-liberalism that ever appplied for membership of any Green movement anywhere? He is still defending the guarantee, which in the long run may be the single most damaging decision to the environment since the Green movement was founded. While the economic ripple effects of that illiterate decision is still with us, (and it will be for decades) nothing Green will approach anywhere near the top of any political agenda.

The Green Party and the Labour party, are both imported franchises, as opposed to our native, civil warmongering parties - which makes it a lot harder to get rid of them, like we did the PDs. The Green Party should have been closed up after the last election. But instead they have elected a glorified bicycle mechanic, who is, as you say, clueless, despite his BA in commerce. They are squatting in the the role of protectors of the environment, and actually preventing any real effective force from developing.

I remember Gilmore saying last year something along the lines of that they would only enter Government if they didn't have to enter coalition. He was smart enough to know that coalition would be the death of them, particularly with FG. But he was stupid enough to lead the party into coalition anyway. Gilmore on the radio today, still pushing behind Cardiff, is a very bad sign. They should get out of Government now. If Gilmore were to jump out and say, "Look, I don't support most of the decisions being made., to be honest.". He should retake the high moral ground, and put out a clear vision of fairness and hope that people could get behind, along with a solid plan to implement it, and he would get huge support and respect. Labour would jump ahead in the subsequent election. and be able to go it alone in Government, or at least get them in the driving seat of some coalition. As much as I hate coalitions, I'd much rather see this one led by Labour than Fine Gael. The Greens had a chance to do a similar jump, right before NAMA, and indeed the bank guarantee, but they missed their chance...fully drunk on power. I would hope Gilmore is more of a political teetotaler.

Holly
24-11-2011, 02:18 PM
There will be a lot of high profile retirements at the end of this term, leaving the younger members to face the well deserved sh1tstorm.
They are a disgrace and the working class should shun them en masse.
This sums it up well.
Sinn Féin and United Left Alliance, and Socialists are set to get the traditional Labour vote after the conduct of this Labour Cabinet Politburo.

Anti-Coalition
06-12-2011, 09:19 PM
Another one bites the dust.

Labour TD to vote against Budget (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1206/breaking55.html)

"Labour’s newest TD Patrick Nulty will vote against the Budget, he said this evening. The Dublin West deputy said the coalition’s measures were “unjust” and claimed they would damage Ireland’s chances of recovery,"

How many is that now? Not as many as I thought, but early days yet.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 09:24 PM
Hasn't done it yet and missed the 9 news. Voted with the gov on last three.
VAT bit up at the moment so maybe this one.


In order to survive as a party those within really have to start differentiating themselves from the leadership me thinks.
No point doing the Fianna Fáil and blaming to top at election time while doing nothing about it for years.

Griska
06-12-2011, 09:25 PM
Another one bites the dust.

Labour TD to vote against Budget (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1206/breaking55.html)

"Labour’s newest TD Patrick Nulty will vote against the Budget, he said this evening. The Dublin West deputy said the coalition’s measures were “unjust” and claimed they would damage Ireland’s chances of recovery,"

How many is that now? Not as many as I thought, but early days yet.

Labour must have been out of their minds to go along with Howlin dishing out the cuts yesterday.
They seem intent on self-destruction.

I'm loving the fact that their by-election crowing has been silenced.
I hope Nulty doesn't apologise and meekly go back.

Baron von Biffo
06-12-2011, 09:32 PM
David McCullagh reporting that Nulty voted for 3 budget measures - increased fag duty, motor tax and petrol/diesel rises.

Holly
06-12-2011, 09:34 PM
Labour have betrayed their base now and the few in Cabinet probably believe that all the backbenchers will behave. The old fogies are listening to no one and those who voted for Labour in the last election will be looking elsewhere.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 09:36 PM
Apparently Patrick Nulty was "accused" of being a "Shinner" by senior members of Labour Party.

That is particularly strong insult these days in Labour

Holly
06-12-2011, 09:37 PM
Apparently Patrick Nulty was "accused" of being a "Shinner" by senior members of Labour Party.

That is particularly strong insult these days in Labour
Labour leaders are terrified of Sinn Féin.

Baron von Biffo
06-12-2011, 09:39 PM
Apparently Patrick Nulty was "accused" of being a "Shinner" by senior members of Labour Party.

That is particularly strong insult these days in Labour

Lab and SF both oppose cuts until they're in power. When they look at each other it must be like looking in a mirror and not liking what you see.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 09:48 PM
Pretty much.

Hopefully people will see through SF on that score

Shaadi
06-12-2011, 10:34 PM
Labour leaders are terrified of Sinn Féin.Labour are too shortsighted to see that they're sleeping with the enemy. FG want Labour to destroy themselves. By the time this Dail has run it's course FG will have slipped the rope around Labours neck and kicked the stool, all without the Labour stooges even knowing that it was happening.. Labour will have been overtaken permanently by FF and SF in the next GE, leaving FG sitting pretty at the top with their rivals relegated to fourth place and obscurity.

Holly
06-12-2011, 10:41 PM
Labour are too shortsighted to see that they're sleeping with the enemy. FG want Labour to destroy themselves. By the time this Dail has run it's course FG will have slipped the rope around Labours neck and kicked the stool, all without the Labour stooges even knowing that it was happening.. Labour will have been overtaken permanently by FF and SF in the next GE, leaving FG sitting pretty at the top with their rivals relegated to fourth place and obscurity.
True enough but don't discount the independents who are demonstrating some spirited opposition in the Dáil.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 10:44 PM
Labour leaders backbenchers are terrified of Sinn Féin.

The leadership is sorted

antiestablishmentarian
06-12-2011, 10:49 PM
In a strange kind of way the government's massive majority could actually prove to be its undoing. Backbench TDs can jump ship relatively smoothly and many already have done so, the cuts this time around were bad but given how fast the situation is deteriorating, a supplementary budget can't be ruled out mid-2012, and I reckon Labour backbenchers will bail out en-masse to try and save their seats. Even then I don't think they'll do much more than save a small rump of 5-10 seats at the next GE.

Shaadi
06-12-2011, 11:04 PM
True enough but don't discount the independents who are demonstrating some spirited opposition in the Dáil.The Independents are great, they can let rip without worrying about party whips. FG would be well advised to keep their noses clean, they have been showing the usual FG arrogance that voters just love to hate.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 11:07 PM
Ruth Coppinger has issued a statement asking Patrick Nulty to leave labour and setup a new party on the left.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 11:10 PM
In a strange kind of way the government's massive majority could actually prove to be its undoing.

Indeed. Should Nulty and Tommy join the tech group for speaking rights their will be ever increasing envious looks from their former colleges who will be finding it ever hard to get some limelight. Or positive limelight at least

Apjp
06-12-2011, 11:47 PM
Ruth Coppinger has issued a statement asking Patrick Nulty to leave labour and setup a new party on the left.

Can ye post it here please? This is interesting. Maybe shes tired of the naiive nonsense of the ULA.

Dr. FIVE
06-12-2011, 11:59 PM
Don't have it I'm afraid

antiestablishmentarian
07-12-2011, 12:02 AM
I doubt it Ap, just a bit of jostling a constituency rival I'd imagine. Nulty has already voted with the government on a number of the measures such as the VAT increase, so I'd say he's looking for a way to keep his left credentials intact by rejecting some aspects of the budget, while leaving the path open for a smooth return to the LPP after a few months by passing other aspects of it.

unspecific
07-12-2011, 12:31 AM
I saw that tweet by David Cochrane too. Can't find any further on Coppinger's alleged comment though. I would be particularly surprised because the SP were vehemently against letting Labour rebels on board the ULA platform.

As for a new party of the left, that is crystal clear a reference to what the ULA intends to become.

Again though, the SP's vision of what the new party should be clashes with Nultys. Doubtful this comment actually exists and if it does then it was taken out of context.

antiestablishmentarian
07-12-2011, 12:36 AM
Press statement on her FaceBook page


Nulty decision reflects growing shift against austerity & Labour -
New left party needed
Press statement from Cllr Ruth Coppinger, Socialist Party/United Left Alliance, Dublin West

The decision by newly- elected TD Patrick Nulty to vote against the Budget is a welcome blow to Labour's continuance of the disastrous bailout/austerity programme. The choice by Labour to attack the poor rather than bondholders is putting pressure on a section of backbenchers and shows the need for a new left party.

The swingeing cuts to health, education, the disabled, lone parents and part-time workers on social welfare was clearly too much for Deputy Nulty to stand over, despite an earlier commitment to always vote with Labour.

However, this mainly reflects the pressure placed on Nulty by the Socialist Party/United Left Alliance during the recent Dublin West by-election. The ULA has struck a bulls-eye against Labour in the run-up to the Budget.

During the by-election it was also pointed out by the Defend Blanchardstown Hospital Campaign that a vote for a Budget containing €540 million in health cuts is effectively a vote for ongoing cuts at our hospital. It is regrettable that Deputy Nulty did not clearly state this position then, as a more honest debate could have taken place.

This decision reflects the growing realisation among a majority in society that austerity won't create jobs or bring economic recovery, but adds to the crisis by killing demand, which the Socialist Party / ULA campaigned on in the by- election.

If Deputy Nulty is sincere, we call on him to now resign from the Labour Party and make a principled stand against austerity and for the building of a new left party in this country.http://www.facebook.com/pages/Cllr-Ruth-Coppinger/156398467784136

unspecific
07-12-2011, 12:56 AM
Ah, thanks. Pardon my blushes for not checking the fb page.

That's much more the tone/message I was expecting.

Dr. FIVE
07-12-2011, 11:11 PM
Aodhán is "very very angry" about Nulty. Did not sound one bit pleased about it on late debate and had plenty to, strange given how they usually keep stum about these things. His gripe was Nulty was the only Labour rep elected who knew what was in the program for government. True that may be but who believes any Labour rep did not know what was ahead of them. Remember Joan's face leaving the DoF after the opposition was briefed.

One suspects his comrades are none too impressed with Nulty's comments about principals and Labour party standards yesterday. Tough **** to Aodhán I say

Baron von Biffo
07-12-2011, 11:38 PM
Aodhán is "very very angry" about Nulty. Did not sound one bit pleased about it on late debate and had plenty to, strange given how they usually keep stum about these things. His gripe was Nulty was the only Labour rep elected who knew what was in the program for government. True that may be but who believes any Labour rep did not know what was ahead of them. Remember Joan's face leaving the DoF after the opposition was briefed.

One suspects his comrades are none too impressed with Nulty's comments about principals and Labour party standards yesterday. Tough **** to Aodhán I say

Did he report Nulty to the guards for incitement to hatred of Lab TDs? :D

Dr. FIVE
07-12-2011, 11:50 PM
:D

I will tweet that at him later for cráic

antiestablishmentarian
08-12-2011, 03:33 AM
Hah. The person who's most put out by this is probably Burton, there'll only be one Labour seat there for the taking Dublin West at the next GE, and going on current performance she'll be dropped like a ton of bricks by her leftie constituents.

Holly
08-12-2011, 04:09 AM
Hah. The person who's most put out by this is probably Burton, there'll only be one Labour seat there for the taking Dublin West at the next GE, and going on current performance she'll be dropped like a ton of bricks by her leftie constituents.
She'll be retiring on a minister's pension.

antiestablishmentarian
08-12-2011, 04:38 AM
She'll be retiring on a minister's pension.Not when if the state goes bankrupt.

Andrew49
08-12-2011, 07:18 AM
Fianna Fail have been a more progressive party in Government than the Irish Labour party.

Labour has always been florid in opposition about fairness, inequality, job security ....: a couple of examples:


“We will end further asset transfers to Nama”.


“We [Fine Gael and Labour] are both committed to forging a new Ireland that is built on fairness and equal citizenship..... By the end of our term in government, Ireland will be recognised as a modern, fair, socially inclusive and equal society, supported by a productive and prosperous economy”.

After nine months in office and just one budget it's plain Labour are neither progressive or to be believed. When they were booted out of office in 1997 society was more unequal that when they entered government - it'll be the same this time. They'll be left with about 15 seats come the next election - that's if this government fulfills a 5 year term.

Baron von Biffo
08-12-2011, 01:23 PM
Hah. The person who's most put out by this is probably Burton, there'll only be one Labour seat there for the taking Dublin West at the next GE, and going on current performance she'll be dropped like a ton of bricks by her leftie constituents.

Burton was elected having given the impression that she was a left wing politician. Since being appointed to a ministry she's proved to be by far the most right wing member of the cabinet.

Those who want a left candidate obviously wont vote for her again but we must remember that that constituency returned the lying, drunk Lenihan at the last GE so there's a substantial Right/idiot vote that could see her over the line.

TotalMayhem
08-12-2011, 01:42 PM
Burton was elected having given the impression that she was a left wing politician. Since being appointed to a ministry she's proved to be by far the most right wing member of the cabinet.

Are you seriously crediting Moan with an opinion of her own? The lady never stood for anything, a tool just like the rest of this shower.

antiestablishmentarian
08-12-2011, 04:26 PM
Burton was elected having given the impression that she was a left wing politician. Since being appointed to a ministry she's proved to be by far the most right wing member of the cabinet.

Those who want a left candidate obviously wont vote for her again but we must remember that that constituency returned the lying, drunk Lenihan at the last GE so there's a substantial Right/idiot vote that could see her over the line.

Yeah, but the Lenihan vote is FF to the core and won't transfer to Burton. Her vote next time could split three ways, to Ruth Coppinger, Nulty, and Sinn Féin.

Holly
08-12-2011, 04:51 PM
I notice today that The Moan is very concerned about welfare payments to poor families in Strabane.
Has anyone ever heard so much interest in the Six Counties from Dáil TDs?
Finne Gwael/Labour continue to distract attention from their actions in the Republic by making references to the Six Counties lately.
What care did they ever show for the people of Strabane before this week?
The truth is that they cannot debate Sinn Féin arguments on their merits.

Baron von Biffo
08-12-2011, 04:52 PM
Yeah, but the Lenihan vote is FF to the core and won't transfer to Burton. Her vote next time could split three ways, to Ruth Coppinger, Nulty, and Sinn Féin.

True enough.

Anti-Coalition
17-12-2012, 11:29 AM
Interesting to go back and see what predictions are coming true

Anti-Coalition
17-12-2012, 11:32 AM
Interesting to go back and read this again, a two and half years in...

simonj
22-12-2012, 10:00 PM
The truth is that they cannot debate Sinn Féin arguments on their merits.

That is very true, constant references to dead bodies etc. its a bit pathetic really that it's the best Gilmore can do.

My opinion is that Labour will drop to around 12/14% - or 12-15 seats if they don't move fast.
The cuts being made are too deep, too fast for too little return, there needs to be a re-negotiation with the EU and IMF, the cuts are to bail out private speculators at the end of the day.

If the EU don't ease off, as there is no veto of any meaning left, withdrawal from the Euro is quite figuratively the the nuclear option, mutually assured destruction - but we have a Danish model to work on for an independent currency within the EU

If Gilmore had allowed political sense to overcome personal ambition he would not be in this situation in the first place.

I still have old comrades, family and dear friends within the Labour party,
I was against Lisbon, in particular the second vote as it was manifestly undemocratic.

The last general election was perhaps the only opportunity within perhaps 90 years to change the political landscape in Ireland utterly.
My advice after the election to Labour was NOT to go into Government, to allow or force an FF/FG arrangement.

By not doing so played into FF hands, Jim McDaid in an interview with Ryan Tubridy said as much, FF had made a complete mess of it and let someone else clean it up and take the flak for it - which is exactly what is happening.

If Labour had remained true to Connolly then they would have taken the side against austerity and cuts - but I think Gilmores desire for power, and to exit (stage right apparently) at the highest level he could achieve in a political career stopped that.

This means the Sherlock's, Nolan's (if they survive, which is doubtful) and more likely the Keaveney's will need to rebuild after the next election, and that will take a decade. At that point SF will likely be the progressive party of choice for most.

It is doubtfull wheter the conditions to force change that existed in 2011 will arise again for a very long time.

Anti-Coalition
29-04-2014, 04:54 AM
Well, it looks like Labour is going the way of the Greens...

6% in the latest poll. That is exactly what the Green Party was at in Government with FF.

How long before the broken mudguard falls off the Wonderboy Wagon?

Rpurfield
29-04-2014, 01:19 PM
Can't see them totally going the way of the greens. They'll return a couple of seats in the next GE. What really needs doing is turfing the careerists at the top out and replacing them


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ceannaire
29-04-2014, 01:40 PM
6% is not the actual figure; neither of the recent polls is particularly reliable unlike Red C which still has Labour in and around 10%.


Furthermore, what was fatal for the Greens and PDs wasn't the size of their vote as such but the fact that it was spread out so evenly that it wasn't big enough in any one constituency to elect a TD. That is not the case with Labour, which can still count on several safe constituencies.

jmcc
29-04-2014, 02:14 PM
6% is not the actual figure; neither of the recent polls is particularly reliable unlike Red C which still has Labour in and around 10%.That 10% is an adjusted figure from what I remember. Anyway, RedC will be publishing the results of a poll being taken this week at the weekend.

The Labour Party may have ceased to be a national party, in terms of support, in the last few weeks.

Regards...jmcc

C. Flower
29-04-2014, 02:16 PM
6% is not the actual figure; neither of the recent polls is particularly reliable unlike Red C which still has Labour in and around 10%.


Furthermore, what was fatal for the Greens and PDs wasn't the size of their vote as such but the fact that it was spread out so evenly that it wasn't big enough in any one constituency to elect a TD. That is not the case with Labour, which can still count on several safe constituencies.

Except the doorsteps are a nightmare, from what Phil Prendergast and others are saying.

Anti-Coalition
29-04-2014, 02:26 PM
Both Labour and FG have a zest for what they are doing. FF in comparison tried to delay and to fudge it.

From the time of the last election, I've said that the assumption that Labour would go the Green trajectory could not be assumed.

There was no serious resistance from outside to Labour going into that coalition - it was "ah sure isn't that what Labour does."

So they are in and people aren't surprised at what they are doing.

The election results showed that it is FG not Labour that is carrying the can for coalition decisions.

Still feel the same as you did 3 years ago CF?

Ogiol
29-04-2014, 02:50 PM
I think it's wishful thinking that Labour should go the way of the Greens. Where they are going is back to their core vote, very much the way of FF. They will probably get between 6-9% the next election and not be able to form a government. This will allow them time out to clear out the leadership and rebuild. The question is, will there be enough electoral space for them to grow back to the 10-15% bracket? Or will they slowly become irrelevant as another party occupies their ideological space... There is still much upheaval to come as well as a united Ireland on the horizon...

C. Flower
29-04-2014, 03:04 PM
Still feel the same as you did 3 years ago CF?

I think Labour will take a thrashing in the election, but will not disappear as a party.

For Labour to disappear, an alternative party of the trade unions would have to be built - and it inevitably would face the same problems as Labour - no sign of it happening bar a few rumbles, over the last three years.

morticia
30-04-2014, 09:06 PM
Except the doorsteps are a nightmare, from what Phil Prendergast and others are saying.

People will take the opportunity to give out, but will they necessarily change their voting patterns? Who else to vote for? FF and FG deserve more of the blame for austerity, SF is still a no-no for many, at least in South Dublin, and the Indies are promising the world without any realistic idea of where to get the money from....

Anti-Coalition
30-04-2014, 11:59 PM
People will take the opportunity to give out, but will they necessarily change their voting patterns? Who else to vote for? FF and FG deserve more of the blame for austerity, SF is still a no-no for many, at least in South Dublin, and the Indies are promising the world without any realistic idea of where to get the money from....

Well, I think that's generally an accurate statement - but perhaps too general when it comes to the Independents. They are our only real hope, and some of them are excellent, in my opinion. Its not like County Councillors or MEPS make any major budgetary decisions anyway. So, open the door to some potentially good future TDs,

Anti-Coalition
01-05-2014, 12:26 AM
I think Labour will take a thrashing in the election, but will not disappear as a party.

For Labour to disappear, an alternative party of the trade unions would have to be built - and it inevitably would face the same problems as Labour - no sign of it happening bar a few rumbles, over the last three years.

Sadly, the Greens didn't disappear either, except maybe from the Dail for a while. But its pretty clear Labour is going to be decimated. Like the Greens, they only got token gestures from the larger coalition party - and the water issue will be no different. There has been the same nervous insecurity apparent in Labour that was written all over the faces of the Greens - who never felt secure in Government - no mater how far they bent over. Both parties were driven to commit acts of political suicide, by breaking every single promise and principle they stood for - to the point of being unrecognisable. They will be back in about seven years, after all the old guard are guillotined. But right now they're dead men (and women) walking...

Anti-Coalition
01-05-2014, 12:47 AM
Except the doorsteps are a nightmare, from what Phil Prendergast and others are saying.

It's not just the doorsteps:

Irish Independent - "Labour candidate branded a 'traitor' as she meets angry protesters on hustings"
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/labour-candidate-branded-a-traitor-as-she-meets-angry-protesters-on-hustings-30231833.html

Ceannaire
01-05-2014, 04:13 PM
Well, I think that's generally an accurate statement - but perhaps too general when it comes to the Independents. They are our only real hope, and some of them are excellent, in my opinion. Its not like County Councillors or MEPS make any major budgetary decisions anyway. So, open the door to some potentially good future TDs,

Well, if they are motivated to and get enough votes parties can achieve change. On the other hand, an Independent can never achieve significant change.

It's not just the doorsteps:

Irish Independent - "Labour candidate branded a 'traitor' as she meets angry protesters on hustings"
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/labour-candidate-branded-a-traitor-as-she-meets-angry-protesters-on-hustings-30231833.html

That is not a representative incident. It's from the Dublin Says No shower or something, not spontaneous locals.

fluffybiscuits
01-05-2014, 04:15 PM
Well, if they are motivated to and get enough votes parties can achieve change. On the other hand, an Independent can never achieve significant change.


That is not a representative incident. It's from the Dublin Says No shower or something, not spontaneous locals.

Independents en masse can though...

riposte
01-05-2014, 04:17 PM
Well, if they are motivated to and get enough votes parties can achieve change. On the other hand, an Independent can never achieve significant change.


Tony Gregory?

fluffybiscuits
01-05-2014, 04:18 PM
Tony Gregory?

Good man but sold his soul to CJ Haughey didnt he?

Richardbouvet
01-05-2014, 04:20 PM
Independents en masse will achieve nothing. Only an organised political force can carry through a political programme.

That is why I am so p***ed off with last year's wave of defectors from the party, none of whom have had the cojones to initiate anything.

Meanwhile, ordinary Labour members are deeply unhappy with things at the moment. I am fairly certain something will have to give after this month. If it doesnt, then I'm out.

Ceannaire
01-05-2014, 04:23 PM
Tony Gregory?


It was the occurrence of that example to my mind that led me to insert the qualifier "significant". He got a good deal for his constituents, but even if circumstances do occasionally allow an Independent to hold the balance o power, a constituency deal is the best kind of thing they can expect to get. You are hardly going to have a situation where one Independent TD dictates government policy.

riposte
01-05-2014, 04:33 PM
Independents en masse will achieve nothing. Only an organised political force can carry through a political programme.

That is why I am so p***ed off with last year's wave of defectors from the party, none of whom have had the cojones to initiate anything.

Meanwhile, ordinary Labour members are deeply unhappy with things at the moment. I am fairly certain something will have to give after this month. If it doesnt, then I'm out.

ah!.... don't leave Richard . we'll have no one to aim our razor sharp criticisms at.

disability student
01-05-2014, 04:33 PM
Saw lots of posters on roads mostly FG/LAB/FF faces with no credentials just hangers on or poliical dynasties.

FG or FF or LAB contempt of voters re posters as it doesn't tell you nothing at all or anything at all of that candidate's background & motives or his or her policies if implemented. Why should we vote on the basis of their faces........ idiots if the electorate did.

They would want us to vote on the basis of that face or popular or well known face like Clune (well known political dynasty of Barry family) without any questions asked of his or her background, credentials, history et al. FG/FF/LAB take a constant view that electorate is of that stupid plank or thick hence their total contempt of the electorate in general.

Any tough questions must be asked of them anything including taxes, stealth taxes in the form of water tax, septic tax, Property taxes, hidden medical card extra charges i could go on. Also the ability of the electorate to pay or not to be included in this equation as Water taxes or property taxes doesn't address that issue.

People are starting to realise that FG/FF /Lab policies are targeted at lining up their business/friends pockets with strong political or dyanasty connection. FG/LAB aren't thinking of Ireland in question as they want to bleed IReland DRY and milk all out for their benefits and of their business pals.

In another words, FG/FF/LAb don't represent us or Ireland at all whatsoever as they are thinking of enriching themselves in the form of pensions. and their business friends as well

FG/FF/LAB parties run for the few (Dinny et al) at the expense of the many people.

Anti-Coalition
01-05-2014, 11:31 PM
It was the occurrence of that example to my mind that led me to insert the qualifier "significant". He got a good deal for his constituents, but even if circumstances do occasionally allow an Independent to hold the balance o power, a constituency deal is the best kind of thing they can expect to get. You are hardly going to have a situation where one Independent TD dictates government policy.

This being a local and European election, I think the issues of government policy and budgetary concerns are secondary. Even elected county councillors who represent political parties don't have much influence on party policy, let alone Government policy. However, party politics can have a very negative effect in local Government - and preempt the elected members from exercising the discretion, which is what they were elected to do in the first place. The more independents in local gov the better - as we have seen over and over how planning issues have been corrupted by political parties, using councils as piggy bank fillers.

The same goes for Europe, where we need all the independent watchdogs we can get, who are not party mouthpieces, especially government party mouthpieces.

Anti-Coalition
01-05-2014, 11:33 PM
Independents en masse will achieve nothing. Only an organised political force can carry through a political programme.

That is why I am so p***ed off with last year's wave of defectors from the party, none of whom have had the cojones to initiate anything.

Meanwhile, ordinary Labour members are deeply unhappy with things at the moment. I am fairly certain something will have to give after this month. If it doesnt, then I'm out.

Come on. Is any of this a real surprise?? We all saw this coming years ago. It was inevitable, and to be honest, I'm surprised it has taken so long...