The Ongoing Political Transformation of Europe

[C. Flower]

Noonan gave an interesting speech in Dublin today.

He said that the role of the EU Commission (with its very carefully negotiated balance of power between larger and smaller states) has been substantially pushed aside by "the larger countries" - i.e. Germany and France.

He also said that the IMF - which is not part of the EU at all - has a greater role than the ECB.

Yesterday and today we have had the spectacle of Papandreou, leader of a sovereign state, being berated on plans for a referendum, and ordered to word any referendum to include a choice to leave the Eurozone. Also, reportedly, severe pressures were put on for a national government in Greece, without a general election. There is even talk of specific individuals being wanted in Government by "the larger countries."

So, I thought that it was time for a thread on the political (rather than economic) transformation of the EU.

[Matt2]

I know I probably come across as an Irish UKIP-er, but listening to Sarkozy at Cannes today, atlking about how 'right it is that after our history it is France and Germany who are reaffirming our committment to Unification....'
- do they realise how close they are to looking like the Reich if the only justification for the agenda they're pursuing is the fact that this time there's consensus between France and Germany on power-sharing ?

How valid is Irish involvement with this project when there has never been an opan admission of it's purpose - the creation of a State relagatin National government to the level of a Stormont/county council ?

Aren't there provisos in our Constitution that render invalid our involvement with this project when it reaches this stage ?
Are there measures demanded from our constitution concerning treasonous activity by elected representatives ?
I'm not being overly dramatic for the sake of it - what is developing is tantamount to an act of war - and Noonan, Kenny, Gilmore, Martin & Adams are fellow-conspirators with the emerging Axis.

Have you read Barrosso's speech a couple of weeks back - 'Une moment Federateur has arrived.....the democratic model has not worked...' - this last seemingly with reference to removing the need for unanimity among member states and creating a centralised power.

And FG/Lab are still pretending there ambition is to restore 'fiscal sovereignty' !!!

[DCon]

Germnay is reportedly coming under pressure to drop the single mandate of the ECB


Simon Hobbs just reported there is a Die Welt story saying the French and the EU Commission, along with the US are trying to strong-arm the Germans into dumping the ECB’s single mandate and have the ECB assume responsibility for supporting European bond markets permanently.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/11/03/anybody-hearing-this/

[morticia]

Germany is reportedly coming under pressure to drop the single mandate of the ECB

Not before time. Peter Morici on the radio this am saying it was too late for subtlety and he actually used the term printing.... ECB should be in charge of recapping the banks also.

He's right, it's all that can save the Euro (and all of us) now.

Inflation is the least of our worries right now. Much as I'm not Sarko's greatest fan, he's right about that.

It appears Super Mario may think so too.... should save us a few quid on the mortgage next month.

[C. Flower]

Not before time. Peter Morici on the radio this am saying it was too late for subtlety and he actually used the term printing.... ECB should be in charge of recapping the banks also.

He's right, it's all that can save the Euro (and all of us) now.

Inflation is the least of our worries right now. Much as I'm not Sarko's greatest fan, he's right about that.

It appears Super Mario may think so too.... should save us a few quid on the mortgage next month.

Effectively, they want the ECB to be the equivalent of the Fed, or the Bank of England for sterling.

This was always understood to be a deal breaker for Germany. But what I'm interested in doing in this thread, is looking to the political institutions of the EU, and whether or not they are being by-passed, or transformed.

There were endless debates over the Lisbon Treaty on the precise voting powers of each state. Have these all been effectively binned now, and are we just dealing with creditor-debtor relations, with an abandonment of all normal political and diplomatic relations ?

[Matt2]

.... Also, reportedly, severe pressures were put on for a national government in Greece, without a general election. There is even talk of specific individuals being wanted in Government by "the larger countries."

.

(What's the name of Trichet's particular Greek that they want to see oust George ?)

And isn't this what has probably been covertly going on for years now; the infiltration of Political Parties, Universities and other institutions with the Cause ?
Look at how quickly Gaybo was dropped when he made his remarks earlier this year.
And Sinn Féin's one-would-have-thought-oxymoronic shift to supporting the Institution that they know well is set out on a course completely at odds with self-determination.
I don't think we have grounds to criticise the Chinese model any more. But we should have known it wouldn't be long before toleration turned into imitation.
Interesting how deeply entrenched Britain is in all this too - after all, it wasn't Hitler's treatment of the jews that prompted the declaration of war but having such a powerful neighbour. But it's no problem now.

All the emergent regime has to do now to truly assume the heirship of the Reich is meet opposition with extreme violence.

[morticia]

This was always understood to be a deal breaker for Germany. But what I'm interested in doing in this thread, is looking to the political institutions of the EU, and whether or not they are being by-passed, or transformed.


Precisely. The ECB will have to be the first transformant, if the Euro and EU in its current form are to survive.

The alternative to the controversial (in Germany) bond buying programme and future bank recaps via printed money is actual Euro collapse, as I have always argued.

Therefore, the ECB needs extra mandates that supersede inflation, such as lender of last resort to sovereigns and banks in distress, recapitaliser of distressed banks, etc.

With that, they'll have to be given extra powers....such as the ability to take over failing banks if they need a recap, in the same way our government has dealt with our own banks. So, financial regulation in the Eurozone, extra responsibility no.1

Next one; sovereign bailouts/haircuts/recaps. I'm not a believer in bailouts, more debt only makes the problem worse unless money is lent at rock bottom rates. Only the ECB could lend at really low rates, and only the ECB could stand behind sovereign bonds (and restabilize the markets), should a haircut be administered.

For example, solution for Italy; buy bonds and keep the price down, solution for Greece, buy up an outstanding % of their bonds (say 80-100%), and offer the banks equivalent recompense. To avoid moral hazard, tell the Greeks they've to live on their tax revenues for at least 10 years, no further sovereign bonds.

To do all that, you would have to add significant control and oversight powers.

Inflation alone as a mandate for a 17 nation currency union is ridiculous. The central bank needs trasnforming

So, Super Mario, will it be Flower Power, Freeze, or the Flying Helmet?? Or just a magic mushroom.......

[C. Flower]

Precisely. The ECB will have to be the first transformant, if the Euro and EU in its current form are to survive.

The alternative to the controversial (in Germany) bond buying programme and future bank recaps via printed money is actual Euro collapse, as I have always argued.

Therefore, the ECB needs extra mandates that supersede inflation, such as lender of last resort to sovereigns and banks in distress, recapitaliser of distressed banks, etc.

With that, they'll have to be given extra powers....such as the ability to take over failing banks if they need a recap, in the same way our government has dealt with our own banks. So, financial regulation in the Eurozone, extra responsibility no.1

Next one; sovereign bailouts/haircuts/recaps. I'm not a believer in bailouts, more debt only makes the problem worse unless money is lent at rock bottom rates. Only the ECB could lend at really low rates, and only the ECB could stand behind sovereign bonds (and restabilize the markets), should a haircut be administered.

For example, solution for Italy; buy bonds and keep the price down, solution for Greece, buy up an outstanding % of their bonds (say 80-100%), and offer the banks equivalent recompense. To avoid moral hazard, tell the Greeks they've to live on their tax revenues for at least 10 years, no further sovereign bonds.

To do all that, you would have to add significant control and oversight powers.

Inflation alone as a mandate for a 17 nation currency union is ridiculous. The central bank needs trasnforming

So, Super Mario, will it be Flower Power, Freeze, or the Flying Helmet?? Or just a magic mushroom.......

These are essentially economic measures. Are they possible within the current political framework of the EU and the component nation states ?
How would people have any democratic control over these institutions and their decisions ?

[DCon]

These are essentially economic measures. Are they possible within the current political framework of the EU and the component nation states ?
How would people have any democratic control over these institutions and their decisions ?

probably none.

Look at the Fed. It is owned by the TBTF banks.

[C. Flower]

probably none.

Look at the Fed. It is owned by the TBTF banks.

Referendum required, for sure.

[eamo]

Referendum required, for sure.
Referendum rejected, also for sure, then the Greek treatment for Ireland?

[morticia]

These are essentially economic measures. Are they possible within the current political framework of the EU and the component nation states ?
How would people have any democratic control over these institutions and their decisions ?

They are measures to deal with economic problems, but they have MASSIVE legal and logistical ramifications and may even require treaty change and changes of institutional mandate in order to implement.

For example, if the ECB is suddenly in charge of Eurozone bank failures, then a raft of laws need changing, which means parliaments etc. The ECB's own charters/mandates/whatever you call them may also require change and new institutional support if their responsibilities change.

Finally, presumably to avoid moral hazard on the part of indebted nations, presumably the EU stability pacts and fiscal oversight need to be beefed up in concert..... which WILL mean treaty change.

Either that, or the Euro collapses.....

as to democratic control, haahaa. Mind you, even in countries with their own central bank, there has been little democratic control over anything to do with the almighty Markets.

The Church of Mammon rules, and it rules absolutely...

[C. Flower]

They are measures to deal with economic problems, but they have MASSIVE legal and logistical ramifications and may even require treaty change and changes of institutional mandate in order to implement.

For example, if the ECB is suddenly in charge of Eurozone bank failures, then a raft of laws need changing, which means parliaments etc. The ECB's own charters/mandates/whatever you call them may also require change and new institutional support if their responsibilities change.

Finally, presumably to avoid moral hazard on the part of indebted nations, presumably the EU stability pacts and fiscal oversight need to be beefed up in concert..... which WILL mean treaty change.

Either that, or the Euro collapses.....

as to democratic control, haahaa. Mind you, even in countries with their own central bank, there has been little democratic control over anything to do with the almighty Markets.

The Church of Mammon rules, and it rules absolutely...

I'm going to move these posts into the ECB thread, as this thread is in the political forum and I'm aiming to get some discussion in it of the political aspects of the situation in Europe.

[cdgalwegian]

These are essentially economic measures. Are they possible within the current political framework of the EU and the component nation states ?
How would people have any democratic control over these institutions and their decisions ?

This is the core of the problem. Here's a letter I had printed in the Sunday Business Post, on Sunday just gone, under "The EU Project"- http://sbpost.ie/post/pages/wholestory.aspx-qqqt=LETTERS-qqqs=letters-qqqsectionid=3-qqqc=11.0.0.0-qqqn=20-qqqx=1.asp

The "democratic deficit" may be a corny catchphrase, but it encapsulates something very unsettling.

[unspecific]

I think its fascinating what is happening to the EU. Its a clear example of contemporary neofascism.

Democracy, in the guise we know it, is ok as along as it agrees with the interests of money. However now that people/democracy are so visibly diametrically opposed to said interests right now, then the response is just as forceful. A violent put down of people in the interests of power.

The nuanced measures of control like the illusions of representative democracy no longer suffice. Outright aggression and authoritarianism are the only things keeping the show on the road right now.

As Joe Higgins pointed out in the Dáil today, this and particularly social-democrat parties represent the economic equivalent to the 1914 betrayal in the class war.

Who wouldn't also bet on a neofascist interbellum period? For many the trend is frighteningly apparent

http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/talktojazeera/2011/10/2011102813360731764.html

[morticia]

I'm going to move these posts into the ECB thread, as this thread is in the political forum and I'm aiming to get some discussion in it of the political aspects of the situation in Europe.

I'm afraid I'd disagree, since the economy and the ECB are at the core of what needs to change (or collapse) in the EU. If there was no crisis, there would be no pressure for change.

Unless you were going to copy rather than cut...??

[C. Flower]

I'm afraid I'd disagree, since the economy and the ECB are at the core of what needs to change (or collapse) in the EU. If there was no crisis, there would be no pressure for change.

Unless you were going to copy rather than cut...??

I've done a bit of both. But the transformation of the ECB into a "Fed" is essentially an economic solution to an economic problem.

Now, if you would like to discuss the political ramifications of that - the impacts on national sovereignty, EU governance, the need for Treaty change, the democratic deficit, then this is the right place to do it.

[Matt2]

They are measures to deal with economic problems, but they have MASSIVE legal and logistical ramifications and may even require treaty change and changes of institutional mandate in order to implement.

For example, if the ECB is suddenly in charge of Eurozone bank failures, then a raft of laws need changing, which means parliaments etc. The ECB's own charters/mandates/whatever you call them may also require change and new institutional support if their responsibilities change.

Finally, presumably to avoid moral hazard on the part of indebted nations, presumably the EU stability pacts and fiscal oversight need to be beefed up in concert..... which WILL mean treaty change.

Either that, or the Euro collapses.....

as to democratic control, haahaa. Mind you, even in countries with their own central bank, there has been little democratic control over anything to do with the almighty Markets.

The Church of Mammon rules, and it rules absolutely...

The Treaties have already been 'transcended' by unilateral French/German decision-making, surely ?
No doubt they'll try to give it a veneer of consensual agreement down the road, but the mask has slipped so we need be in no doubt

As Cactus pointed out in the opening, and as did Vincent Brown after the Franco-German statement of intent last night.

We have a de facto promise to expel Greece if agreement isn't forthcoming, but of more concern to me is the likelihood that beneath this is a far more dangerous covert assertion that Greece is being held hostage, whether this is merely for the duration of the threat their default poses to Herr Bankenstein or whether it is a more permanent claim of economic/territorial ownership remains to be seen.

[C. Flower]

This is the core of the problem. Here's a letter I had printed in the Sunday Business Post, on Sunday just gone, under "The EU Project"- http://sbpost.ie/post/pages/wholestory.aspx-qqqt=LETTERS-qqqs=letters-qqqsectionid=3-qqqc=11.0.0.0-qqqn=20-qqqx=1.asp

The "democratic deficit" may be a corny catchphrase, but it encapsulates something very unsettling.

Do you have any thoughts about how to deal with a Europe within which Germany is dominant, and with a serious democratic deficit ?

The express wish to suppress democracy seem clear enough from the way that various EU/IMF deals have been deliberately cemented in to countries just before General Elections, with the implication that populations are locked into them for 5 + years without any electoral opportunity to object ?

[Matt2]

Do you have any thoughts about how to deal with a Europe within which Germany is dominant, and with a serious democratic deficit ?

The express wish to suppress democracy seem clear enough from the way that various EU/IMF deals have been deliberately cemented in to countries just before General Elections, with the implication that populations are locked into them for 5 + years without any electoral opportunity to object ?

It may be down the line, and require virtually a revolutionary sea-change here, but I think a power to repeal legislation should be appended to the Constitution; a system where there is a permanent polling mechanism that can be activated by the electorate whent therre is widespread opposition to laws that a government enacts. And a similar mechanism to remove governments before term when necessary.
It would work wonders. I think the resulting enfranchisement would shake people out of their fatalist lethargy and foster a real spirit of solidarity and democratic responsibility.

And it is a movement in the opposite direction to that of the European Project.

[C. Flower]

Well, the Parliament has always been regarded as a talking shop. The Commission and the Council of Ministers is out of public view, pretty well. And now Noonan says they are sidelined, anyway, by Germany and France.

I'd have to say that it beats World War 2, as at least they were able to take over without any bloodshed.

[cdgalwegian]

[QUOTE=C. Flower;198039]Do you have any thoughts about how to deal with a Europe within which Germany is dominant, and with a serious democratic deficit ?

QUOTE]
The EU seems to work on horsetrading, rather strict democratic mandates through respresentation, which means, unfortunately, we have to trust our MEPs with our national interests, which isn't very promising. Expanding the role of the parliament would appear the best route, but I think others might proffer more enlightened suggestions. I don't think there is any quick fix, because the whole project is an organic enterprise. I thank my lucky stars the Constitution was a failure: from a historical perspective, I am pro-federal EU, but with the politicians we have now, it is an absolute no-no, for the forseeable future. A stable Europe politically is just as important as economically; we need to slow right down, and try to get transparency as the mode of working as much as possible, before going forward. The economic mess is doing the opposite though.

[C. Flower]

[QUOTE=C. Flower;198039]Do you have any thoughts about how to deal with a Europe within which Germany is dominant, and with a serious democratic deficit ?

QUOTE]
The EU seems to work on horsetrading, rather strict democratic mandates through respresentation, which means, unfortunately, we have to trust our MEPs with our national interests, which isn't very promising. Expanding the role of the parliament would appear the best route, but I think others might proffer more enlightened suggestions. I don't think there is any quick fix, because the whole project is an organic enterprise. I thank my lucky stars the Constitution was a failure: from a historical perspective, I am pro-federal EU, but with the politicians we have now, it is an absolute no-no, for the forseeable future. A stable Europe politically is just as important as economically; we need to slow right down, and try to get transparency as the mode of working as much as possible, before going forward. The economic mess is doing the opposite though.

The EP seems to be completely irrelevant to resolution of the economic crisis.
I don't even know if they have provisions for emergency debates to be held.

[Matt2]

Well, the Parliament has always been regarded as a talking shop. The Commission and the Council of Ministers is out of public view, pretty well. And now Noonan says they are sidelined, anyway, by Germany and France.

I'd have to say that it beats World War 2, as at least they were able to take over without any bloodshed.

It will get progressively worse - more authoritarian and more willing to exercise the same poweres that enabled it's ascent.
Emergency laws become the norm.

There will be something like a mechanised feudalism coming to the fore, and things we take for granted as the normal requirements to ensure the dignity of human life and society will be dismantled.
The rate this occurs will probably accelerate.
Beyond doomsday scenarios, a little contemplation and observation will certainly, I think, reveal that this is an inevitable consequence once the precedent has been set - enlisting the fruits of the labour of millions without consent to enrich narrow cartels (who themselves will find their humanity gradually being subsumed to the systems they have appended to themselves), and the rendering of democratic mandate obsolete.
Once this same ethos is applied to goods production, in a comprehensive manner, the possible depths are endless.

[cdgalwegian]

[quote=cdgalwegian;198046]

The EP seems to be completely irrelevant to resolution of the economic crisis.
I don't even know if they have provisions for emergency debates to be held.

The EP is useless- what I mean is, is this the institution that needs to be transformed as the best vehicle for accountability? I'm largely ignorant of the cut and thrust of institutional workings- I'm just coming from the necessity for a stable Europe, without radicalism. Is the EU becoming a behemoth we cannot control directly, or is it a benign force for peace? Both I think- if we need to reverse things towards a customs union, then so be it. The world is unstable at the moment, there's no doubt. We have to tread carefully: mindful of the manouevres of elites, but not cutting our noses off to spite our faces.

[DCon]

John Bruton on Prime Time says Merkel wants a European president

Bruton says a President elected on a 1 person, 1 vote basis would be a step forward for democracy.

Sounds like the eurovision to me and I bet the voting would be similar

[cdgalwegian]

John Bruton on Prime Time says Merkel wants a European president

Bruton says a President elected on a 1 person, 1 vote basis would be a step forward for democracy.

Sounds like the eurovision to me and I bet the voting would be similar

Yeah- window dressing, or as Ben Elton used to say "garnish".

[C. Flower]

John Bruton on Prime Time says Merkel wants a European president

Bruton says a President elected on a 1 person, 1 vote basis would be a step forward for democracy.

Sounds like the eurovision to me and I bet the voting would be similar

He said it in that very s l o w p l o d d i n g voice that some people use when talking to children.

[Matt2]

John Bruton on Prime Time says Merkel wants a European president

Bruton says a President elected on a 1 person, 1 vote basis would be a step forward for democracy.

Sounds like the eurovision to me and I bet the voting would be similar

The forcing the only option regarding engagement with this monster to be 'out-or-in' referendums.

[cdgalwegian]

I think much of the problems we are facing relates to notions of sovereignty, as a source of national pride, versus better living conditions as part of a large economic area, leading to tetchiness in relation to being considered citizens vs consumers; both are underpinned by the psychological need for control. Representative democracy is a dilution of individual wants, and any lack of control that we cede in this process is further diluted by political actions we no longer control. The transformation of the EU is supposed to be decided by what we as citizens want, but the beaucracy involved is so open to abuse cos most of it is behind closed doors (via horsetrading) it is natural to want more contol over its processes.
But do the political parties trust the plebs with this responsibility? No. With a nominal parliament, we are in a catch-22 with representation for change. How do we break this catch-22?

[AJSD86]

I think that this shift towards 'horsetrading' is the embodiment of the power of Germany. It has to engage with fixing things by throwing money at but at the same time it can leave it late enough to engage that things can be necessarily vague(like the stability amendment) allowing it greater via 'horsetrading'. In that way it lacks procedure so even the bureacracy in the EU is weakened. Its almost like they are playing chicken and papandreou decided to try and outchicken them this week.
Its hard to see how you could rebalance that power inequality, maybe by forming a coalition of the PIIGS?

[unspecific]

Interesting that Bruton should mention the elected president idea - mainly because it didn't transmit to the anglo-phone press somehow.

But the compromise of the Lisbon Treaty to the EP was that the Commission president would from 2014, under gentleman's agreement, go to the head of the party with the biggest mandate in the elections.

I'm very cyncial as to whether this will actually come to pass. If Merkozy suggested an elected President of the Council that would be very disappointing. That role has been used by the large nations to impose their will but provide a fig leaf of "community method" action.

Van Rompuy has been nothing but a disappointing sockpuppet. His role has the primary means the EP and the Commission have been bypassed

[sinsin]

The EU project has always been about the Fourth Reich.
(For those of you who do not understand,do not confuse it with the Nazis.)

[unspecific]

maybe by forming a coalition of the PIIGS?

+1. Organised action by the powerless is the only thing that has ever provided progress.

[PaddyJoe]

The EU project has always been about the Fourth Reich.
(For those of you who do not understand,do not confuse it with the Nazis.)

The Third Reich was the period of Nazi rule in Germany up until the end of WW2. What do you mean by 'Fourth Reich'?

[antiestablishmentarian]

It seems to me that problems inherent in the EU structure which are apparent today were there from its inception as a loose alliance of states with the same economic and (broad) political interests. France and Germany have always been the key pillars, the ones who drove the project forward. When it stalled in the 1960s, it was largely because France withdrew and took an 'empty-chair' approach to integration. Ditto for the late 1970s, when the states each made their own way through the oil crisis and stagflation period, leaving the ECJ to play the key role in integration (through judgments like Dufrenne and the Cassis de Dijon cases).

The theory underlying European integration is neo-functionalism. If you wiki it, there's a brief and quite succinct analysis of it, but broadly it means that if there is co-operation in one field there will be a spillover effect driving further integration. The adoption of the single currency has obliged the EU to co-operate more fully on other issues of economic integration, like running fixed deficits and a common fiscal policy. Now that it is in trouble, there is increased integration and emergency measures being forced on the countries in trouble to further subordinate them to the EU and constrained co-operation to keep them in the Eurozone and EU. To Sarkozy and Merkel, the measures taken so far are co-operative measures- they are constrained to take these measures as a result of the initial decision to form a common currency, so now they are forced to do what is necessary to save the Euro or abandon the EU project altogether, something that they can't do without leaving the Euro and thus bringing down their own financial systems. So in a way, they are forced to co-operate to drive integration to protect their own hidden financial time-bombs.

As a sidenote, the nature of the EU as a driver of neo-liberal policy, which emphasises individual enterprise and economic 'freedom' over democracy, the contempt being displayed for democracy by EU elites at present is not that surprising. To them it is a luxury that can be dispensed with if there is a need to protect their project against the wishes of the citizens, ergo the strong-arming of smaller countries into extortionate and criminal bailouts and the continued weakness of the EU parliament.

On another point the horse trading that cdgalwegian referred to is a result of the power of the European Council as one of the core institutions. This Council is made up of the heads of government of each country, and is equal with the Commission, while the Commission may issue regulations etc, they generally cannot do so without at least tacit approval from the Council, so there is generally alot of horse-trading to thrash out something generally agreeable given the veto power and weighted voting procedures that apply to all Council decisions. For anyone who really wants to get to grips with the way the EU works, I'd recommend Craig & De Burcas 'EU Law- text, cases and materials', which is an exhaustive source of info on the institutions and ideology behind the EU.

*Found a google-books extract from the first chapter of the book, it provides a good background for the history of the EU institutions, the theory of integration and commentary thereon.
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=aGqOLDK5PTwC&lpg=PP1&ots=xrwSbWedyk&dq=craig%20and%20de%20burca&pg=PA1#v=onepage&q=craig%20and%20de%20burca&f=false

[antiestablishmentarian]

The EU project has always been about the Fourth Reich.
(For those of you who do not understand,do not confuse it with the Nazis.)

What do you know of the institutional history of the EU that brought you to that conclusion?

[C. Flower]

[QUOTE=cdgalwegian;198073]I think much of the problems we are facing relates to notions of sovereignty, as a source of national pride, versus better living conditions as part of a large economic area, leading to tetchiness in relation to being considered citizens vs consumers;

Sovereignty is not only about pride. States that aren't sovereign are being ripped off by a bigger, stronger state and very likely kept deliberately in a state of backwardness.


both are underpinned by the psychological need for control.

Not just about psychological need, but also real self interest, and real rights as a citizen.


Representative democracy is a dilution of individual wants,

It trades some off, but also guarantees some.


and any lack of control that we cede in this process is further diluted by political actions we no longer control.

Representative democracy exchanged some rights for others - feudal rights and duties preceded it. Less slavery, more self determination, less security in some respects.


The transformation of the EU is supposed to be decided by what we as citizens want, but the beaucracy involved is so open to abuse cos most of it is behind closed doors (via horsetrading) it is natural to want more contol over its processes.

The emphasis was never on democracy, always on "efficiency" in terms of market economics.


But do the political parties trust the plebs with this responsibility? No. With a nominal parliament, we are in a catch-22 with representation for change. How do we break this catch-22?

I would suggest that a start would be for the various Occupations to set up an "Occupy Europe" either real, virtual or both.

Completely new institutions would need to be set up, from what I've seen of the old ones.

[unspecific]

I would suggest that a start would be for the various Occupations to set up an "Occupy Europe" either real, virtual or both.

Completely new institutions would need to be set up, from what I've seen of the old ones.

Just stumbled across this

http://greekleftreview.wordpress.com/2011/11/03/the-global-square-an-online-platform-for-our-movement/


How, in other words, can we perpetuate the creative and cooperative spirit of the occupations and transform them into lasting forms of social organization — at the global as well as the local level?

It goes on to call for coding whizkids to come up with some sort of app or website to facilitate Occupy___ over vast areas

[C. Flower]

Facebook, which is in someways a nightmare, is doing this a bit.

I wonder if a forum in which everyone was empowered to create new forums would work ?:D

[cdgalwegian]

Facebook, which is in someways a nightmare, is doing this a bit.

I wonder if a forum in which everyone was empowered to create new forums would work ?:D

This sounds like the "wiki-democracy" idea in the "'Occupy' movement- a postmodernist protest movement?" thread I was talking about. I thought it might sound a bit far-fetched to mention it, but as I'm new to forum contributions it has been refreshing to see such open-mindedness (dare I say it - thinking outside of the box?) combined with pragmatism. The original pillars of the EEC, and now the EU, are being seriously rattled by the economic turbulence, but I think we can all see that rushing into more political union artificially rather than organically is making a bad design worse, copperfastening any existing poor democratic features and inequalities.
The technology is there to underwrite community (EU) grassroots movement; such co-ordination could well undermine the dubious party political co-ordinations we are all suspicious of in a shift to grassroots democracy. Directly elected president my arse.

[C. Flower]

For all its much discussed weaknesses, it's a great strength that it is completely international, and that different "Occupations" support each other. They are not completely dependent on social media, but social media has played a part in their development.

There's a propoganda war going on against the Greek people, to isolate them from support. Social media can to some extent counteract that.

But for many things, physical "face to face" action will always be essential.

[Klaus Kastner]

Over most of Europe, regions (and regional feelings) are older than national states. This is one huge difference versus the USA. Bismarck forced a "United Germany" upon individual regions and duchy's and to this day, 140 years later, the Bavarians still think that they are Bavarians first and Germans thereafter (at least many of them). And, frankly, that has a lot of charme. Thus, a federal European government with federal states comes into direct confict with this tradition and culture of regions.

I have no idea how such a "Europe of Regions" should be structured but until someone comes up with that idea, the idea of a European Union will remain an idea only.

[C. Flower]

From a legal point of view, we have been discussing the need for a Referendum on the EFSF since last year.

http://www.politicalworld.org/showthread.php?t=6025

The German Courts decision last month means that Merkel has to take every decision back to the German Parliament.

At the moment they are coasting along, ignoring the legal issues and hoping they will go away, taking advantage of the mood of economic "shock and awe."

[ang]

Whilst we are on the subject of Europe and Merkel&Sarkozy are displaying "their power" can anybody actually point me in the direction of our elected MEP's and show me how many of Angie and Nicky's proposals they voted for ?

The new "redundant" fully paid obviously

[cdgalwegian]

Over most of Europe, regions (and regional feelings) are older than national states. This is one huge difference versus the USA. Bismarck forced a "United Germany" upon individual regions and duchy's and to this day, 140 years later, the Bavarians still think that they are Bavarians first and Germans thereafter (at least many of them). And, frankly, that has a lot of charme. Thus, a federal European government with federal states comes into direct confict with this tradition and culture of regions.

I have no idea how such a "Europe of Regions" should be structured but until someone comes up with that idea, the idea of a European Union will remain an idea only.

I agree that a federal Europe is dubious, which is why a temporary reverse direction towards a customs union might be beneficial, so that we would later progress going forward more democratically the next time, much more slowly. What are the chances of that though?
Remember the expanding EEC/EU problem? Broadening vs deepening?- increased military security and markets were the twin dialectic, and democracy seems to have lost out in this dialectical process.
It all seems like the political parties really do treat us like we parents treat our kids; "do as I say, not as I do"- we know what's best. Occupy etc are gaining legitimacy because our democracy vis-a-vis Europe is definitely being exposed for the nanny-state it is becoming/is (elitism/conspiracies aside). The goal rather the reality of a federal union is good enough for me- as long as we take it slowly- I mean very slowly. Maybe the financial crisis may force the issue for us to go backwards for a while rather forward too soon?

[C. Flower]

Whilst we are on the subject of Europe and Merkel&Sarkozy are displaying "their power" can anybody actually point me in the direction of our elected MEP's and show me how many of Angie and Nicky's proposals they voted for ?

The new "redundant" fully paid obviously

Indeed. The EU would be more democratic if the EP was abolished and we went for the German approach of approving everything (or not) in the local parliament.

But of course, this is not the way things are going. Might is right ... beggars can't be choosers is the message going out.

[cdgalwegian]

Indeed. The EU would be more democratic if the EP was abolished and we went for the German approach of approving everything (or not) in the local parliament.

.

Do you think the federal idea would be better through the Commission? Is that not more indirect than the EP, in terms of representation? Would not the EP be a better route if if it could be rejigged (assuming it could be- that old catch-22 thing again).? Again, excuse my genuine ignorance.


What is happening is that all the institutions are being ignored in favour of a tongue lashing from Merkozy.

I haven't heard much from Brigid Laffan recently. Apologies - accidentally posted into your post, instead of quoting (CF)

[C. Flower]

Discussion on George Lee's Business Programme, on Greece.

Lee has asked the question as to whether Merkel and Sarkozy had a right to call Papandreou to Cannes and tell him to drop the referendum.

The German on the panel totally disinterested in the question "I don't know if they have any right to do it, but it is a fact.

The call for unelected "technical governments" that is ripping around Europe - first in Italy, now Greece - is a call for dictatorship. Anyone who thinks that these governments would not use the full force of the State to implement a pro-business " neo-liberal solution" to the economic crisis needs to wake up.

The logic of the historic stage which finance capitalism has reached is that, after national assets have been liquidated and poured into insolvent banks, the bankers should now directly take over the states and run them.

[cdgalwegian]

Discussion on George Lee's Business Programme, on Greece.

Lee has asked the question as to whether Merkel and Sarkozy had a right to call Papandreou to Cannes and tell him to drop the referendum.

.

The EU bully-boys (ok, boy and girl) are showing the realpolitik at play; stick to their script- it's not a case of "It's the economy, stupid"; more "It's our economy, stupid", and the banks are calling the shots- play ball, with our rules.

[antiestablishmentarian]

People know that already- the Lisbon treaty fiasco showed the contempt that technocratic élites have for democracy and those they rule over. The incestuous ties between the political establishment and big business means that governments are already de facto bankers governments, living as we are in a period of late capitalism where finance has surpassed industry as the chief mode of production and expansion of capital. The call for 'technical governments' is a sign that the establishment feels it has lost its grip on affairs and that the old patters of governance are no longer sufficient for their needs. The logical corollary to this is increased power for the EU institutions as technocratic elites imbued with a pro-EU ideology (that is neo-liberal in economics and EU technocratic in politics) and outlook seek to 'pool their sovereignty' in an attempt to save the Euro and ram through the austerity measures needed to save European financial capitalism from collapse or overthrow.

Thus, there is a kind of self-fulfilling logic to the neo-functionalism I mentioned earlier in this thread. Having already ceded power and seen a spillover from limited trading links to deeper ties and forms of integration, the Eurozone states and their national political establishments now find themselves forced to cede most of their power to the centre (which is trying to impose forms of greater control like constitutional 'balanced budget' amendments and greater ECB/EU oversight on fiscal policy into national affairs) to prevent the peripheral countries taking down their economies. The logical end of this will be a federal EU, where each state will have its financial and fiscal policy dictated to it by the centre, and where national parliaments and other parliamentary democratic organs are powerless subordinates of the EU- in other words, the Irish situation where every fortnight EU/ECB officials check the books in the DOF and approve/reject government expenditure proposals is the future for all Eurozone member states. It is supremely ironic that in order to protect their own narrow national interests, the European ruling classes may now find themselves constrained to cede a large amount of their power to Brussels to prevent the collapse of their powerbases and economic interests at home. This of course pre-supposes that the core Eurozone members will stay in the Euro and do everything in their power to prevent the PIIGS leaving the single currency and burning bondholders from the core EU countries.

[cdgalwegian]

. The logical end of this will be a federal EU, where each state will have its financial and fiscal policy dictated to it by the centre, and where national parliaments and other parliamentary democratic organs are powerless subordinates of the EU- in other words, the Irish situation where every fortnight EU/ECB officials check the books in the DOF and approve/reject government expenditure proposals is the future for all Eurozone member states. .

In such a badly run country as Ireland, some people wonder if it is better that the EU (i.e. Germany) looks after our finances. Emotional issues of sovereignty are at stake, but so too is the resignation of people in relation the incompetence of Irish politicians. Such resignation is understandable, but to cede control of ones own finances to someone else is a bitter pill to swallow. This is an issue of control and ceding control. We are minnows compared to other countries, and have very little say, except through constitutional mechanisms.
It is highly emotive stuff; a lot of soul-searching needs to be done re the European Project, because things are in flux as we speak, having potentially irreversible consequences. The writing, as you suggested, is on the wall- but do we radicalise, or acquiesce?
Instinctively, we would say "acquiesce? that's slave mentality", but radical solutions could have dangerous implications for a continent with a trigger-happy history. Is there a middle road? There may well be , but I'd say we're in the back of the coach, not in the driving seat. Do we (if we could) overpower the driver (through referenda etc) and cause a crash, or hope the destination is not as bad as the brochure makes out?

[C. Flower]

People know that already- the Lisbon treaty fiasco showed the contempt that technocratic élites have for democracy and those they rule over. The incestuous ties between the political establishment and big business means that governments are already de facto bankers governments, living as we are in a period of late capitalism where finance has surpassed industry as the chief mode of production and expansion of capital. The call for 'technical governments' is a sign that the establishment feels it has lost its grip on affairs and that the old patters of governance are no longer sufficient for their needs. The logical corollary to this is increased power for the EU institutions as technocratic elites imbued with a pro-EU ideology (that is neo-liberal in economics and EU technocratic in politics) and outlook seek to 'pool their sovereignty' in an attempt to save the Euro and ram through the austerity measures needed to save European financial capitalism from collapse or overthrow.

Thus, there is a kind of self-fulfilling logic to the neo-functionalism I mentioned earlier in this thread. Having already ceded power and seen a spillover from limited trading links to deeper ties and forms of integration, the Eurozone states and their national political establishments now find themselves forced to cede most of their power to the centre (which is trying to impose forms of greater control like constitutional 'balanced budget' amendments and greater ECB/EU oversight on fiscal policy into national affairs) to prevent the peripheral countries taking down their economies. The logical end of this will be a federal EU, where each state will have its financial and fiscal policy dictated to it by the centre, and where national parliaments and other parliamentary democratic organs are powerless subordinates of the EU- in other words, the Irish situation where every fortnight EU/ECB officials check the books in the DOF and approve/reject government expenditure proposals is the future for all Eurozone member states. It is supremely ironic that in order to protect their own narrow national interests, the European ruling classes may now find themselves constrained to cede a large amount of their power to Brussels to prevent the collapse of their powerbases and economic interests at home. This of course pre-supposes that the core Eurozone members will stay in the Euro and do everything in their power to prevent the PIIGS leaving the single currency and burning bondholders from the core EU countries.

Antie - This has been one option under discussion. But I think things have already moved on far beyond that. What is happening is not a reordering of European institutions to become incrementally more federalised, and with greater control by the ECB/Europe over national budgets.

The EU institutions are being ignored by Merkel, and Sarkozy, at the European-wide level, in favour of "direct rule" by themselves as the representatives of capital in the two economic powers of the Eurozone.

According to Noonan, the IMF is now having more influence than the ECB in Europe. I've written about this before, as it was clear when the first IMF/EU bailout was arranged that the IMF would take the reins.

At state level, simultaneously, national governments are under threat of removal and replacement with unelected "technical governments" peopled by the direct representatives of finance capital.

All the institutional veils are being stripped away and its raw, naked realpolitik.

And of course, the media is working day and night to "normalise" it.

[antiestablishmentarian]

[QUOTE]Antie - This has been one option under discussion. But I think things have already moved on far beyond that. What is happening is not a reordering of European institutions to become incrementally more federalised, and with greater control by the ECB/Europe over national budgets.

The EU institutions are being ignored by Merkel, and Sarkozy, at the European-wide level, in favour of "direct rule" by themselves as the representatives of capital in the two economic powers of the Eurozone.

According to Noonan, the IMF is now having more influence than the ECB in Europe. I've written about this before, as it was clear when the first IMF/EU bailout was arranged that the IMF would take the reins.
I'm not sure if that is fully correct. From information I've read on this site, the impression I got is that it was the ECB which was pushing for key elements of the bailout packages, especially the stipulation that bondholders and derivative holders be repaid in full whereas the IMF was prepared to accept a bondholder burning in a limited sense alongside the obligatory austerity package. Also, while it may be Sarkozy and Merkel who make the statements, it is the European institutions who enforce what they mandate, so that strengthens the institutions and their bureaucracies regardless of the seeming solo-run by France and Germany. This serves to strengthen the EU and centralise it while the powers given to the institutions to deal with this crisis are bringing about a de-facto federalisation.



At state level, simultaneously, national governments are under threat of removal and replacement with unelected "technical governments" peopled by the direct representatives of finance capital.

All the institutional veils are being stripped away and its raw, naked realpolitik.

And of course, the media is working day and night to "normalise" it.

The realpolitik was always at the heart of the EU in the way the European Council worked- threats, bribes, concessions were all part of the way deals were hammered out, which were then enforced by the Commission and other institutions. When France and Germany speak together at these international conferences, it is implicitly on behalf of the EU as through their dominance of the Council they are the most important EU member states and may be said to speak for the EU as it is still a largely voiceless entity reliant on member states to represent it to a large extent. This doesn't negate the fact that the crisis and the powers given to the EU as a result are tending towards federalisation- the only alternative to that short of a revolution is disintegration.

[C. Flower]

[quote=C. Flower;198349]
I'm not sure if that is fully correct. From information I've read on this site, the impression I got is that it was the ECB which was pushing for key elements of the bailout packages, especially the stipulation that bondholders and derivative holders be repaid in full whereas the IMF was prepared to accept a bondholder burning in a limited sense alongside the obligatory austerity package. Also, while it may be Sarkozy and Merkel who make the statements, it is the European institutions who enforce what they mandate, so that strengthens the institutions and their bureaucracies regardless of the seeming solo-run by France and Germany. This serves to strengthen the EU and centralise it while the powers given to the institutions to deal with this crisis are bringing about a de-facto federalisation.




The realpolitik was always at the heart of the EU in the way the European Council worked- threats, bribes, concessions were all part of the way deals were hammered out, which were then enforced by the Commission and other institutions. When France and Germany speak together at these international conferences, it is implicitly on behalf of the EU as through their dominance of the Council they are the most important EU member states and may be said to speak for the EU as it is still a largely voiceless entity reliant on member states to represent it to a large extent. This doesn't negate the fact that the crisis and the powers given to the EU as a result are tending towards federalisation- the only alternative to that short of a revolution is disintegration.

But the fact is that S and M are going way beyond any legal powers...
I don't think they are speaking "on behalf of the EU" in any legal or meaningful way. Limited "burning" as per IMF has already been agreed for Greece.

[ang]

Selective thinking from Merkel and Sarkozy is a huge problem but the info that comes out of the different sectors (within EU) just doesn't tie up and adds to the confusion.

[Klaus Kastner]

I have tried to summarize below the most importance "policy-crimes" which EU/ECB-officials have committed since 2009.

http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2011/11/jaccuse.html

[C. Flower]

I have tried to summarize below the most importance "policy-crimes" which EU/ECB-officials have committed since 2009.

http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2011/11/jaccuse.html

Fascinating Klaus. What do you think of Noonan's view that the ECB has been sidelined to the IMF to some extent ?

Basically, you think the ECB doesn't have a clue what it's doing in relation to bank debt?

[C. Flower]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Insight-Euro-new-politburo-no-reuters_molt-32697707.html?x=0

The Frankfurt Group / Groupe de Francfort seemed to pop out of nowhere.

It appears to be ad hoc, without legal status.
Is it effectively the new EU Government, or just another temporary body?





The inner circle comprises the leaders of Germany and France, the presidents of the executive European Commission and of the European Council of EU leaders, the heads of the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers, and the European Commissioner for economic and financial affairs.

Europe's new politburo met four times on the sidelines of last week's Group of 20 summit in Cannes, issuing an ultimatum to Greece that it would not get a cent more aid until it met its European commitments, and arm-twisting Italy to carry out long delayed economic reforms and let the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) monitor them.

In a tell-tale recognition of the new ad hoc power centre, members wore lapel badges marked "Groupe de Francfort."

U.S. President Barack Obama attended one of the meetings, getting what he joked was a "crash course" in the complexity of Europe's laborious decision-making processes and institutions.


The full article is very well worth reading, as it gives a detailed view of the tensions and rows over the last couple of weeks on how to save the Euro - this is the last paragraph.


LEGITIMACY VS EFFICACY

The Frankfurt Group has already had an impact in euro zone crisis management but like all informal core groups it has begun to stir resentment among those who are excluded, and it has yet to prove its ability to craft a convincing longer-term solution.

North European creditor countries such as the Netherlands, Slovakia and Finland, where public hostility to further euro zone bailouts is fierce, are already grumbling about decisions being taken behind their backs.

In Greece and Italy, there has been strong criticism of the perceived arrogance of "Merkozy," as the Franco-German duumvirate are increasingly nicknamed, in summoning their prime ministers to receive ultimatums.

German and French officials shrug off such complaints as inevitable, noting that EU partners are even more unhappy when France and Germany do not agree, since that paralyses Europe.

"There is always a trade-off between legitimacy and efficacy," said an EU official involved in the Frankfurt Group. "The euro area institutions were not designed for crisis management so we need innovative solutions.

"In an emergency like this, we have to have a structure that works," he said, adding that the presence of the European Commission and of European Council President Herman Van Rompuy guaranteed that the interests of smaller member states would be taken into account.

EU officials had held conference calls with the 15 other euro zone states during the Cannes summit "to keep them in the loop." The head of the EFSF, Klaus Regling, was secretly flown to Cannes to brief the leaders on the state of accelerated preparations to leverage the rescue fund, one source said.

Merkel long resisted French pressure to create more of an "economic government" in the euro zone, not least because she did not want Germany to be in a minority on issues such as bailouts, free trade or the EU budget.

She also did not want to alienate German allies and neighbours such as Denmark, Poland and the Czech Republic, which are not in the euro zone.

But recent problems in smaller countries that aggravated market turmoil -- Finland's demand for collateral on loans to Greece and Slovakia's parliamentary wrangling over increasing the EFSF's powers -- convinced her of the need for stronger leadership to impose order.

Whether the Frankfurt Group will be the forum that finally convinces Germany to accept a bigger crisis-fighting role for the ECB, or the creation of jointly issued euro zone bonds, remains to be seen.

[C. Flower]

MEPS on vast unvouched allowances. They seem to clear about half a million a year each between salary and expenses ?

http://www.examiner.ie/opinion/columnists/colette-browne/as-we-pay-713m-we-dont-owe-our-eu-leaders-live-in-jet-set-style-172595.html

[Klaus Kastner]

Outside the IMF, Citibank is undoubtedly the institution which has accumulated over the decades the most competence as regards the management of sovereign debt problems. If Citibank says that, sadly, the EU-elites have not known that “outside of Europe, debt reschedulings have come a dime a dozen over the last decades”, that says it all. On the other hand, “haircuts” for sovereign debt have been the great exception to the rule in recent decades. The fact that EU-elites have not known this has lead to a historical precedent whose long-term consequences we have no way of predicting today.

Sidelining the ECB to the IMF? I hope so! In every company you assign the less experienced ones to the professional ones so that they can learn. Remember: one of the first things which came out of the EU shortly after something had hit the fan in Greece in late 2009 was their announcement that they would not need the IMF because, essentially, they were smart enough to handle this on their own. Do I need to say more?

How could they have been smart enough? How many sovereign debt problems had they managed before? I once pointed this out to the ECB and they wrote back recommending to me the book “This time it’s different”. A great book but they would have been better off seeking the advice of practitioners instead of reading books!

I have from the start recommended in all directions and at all levels to seek the advice of Bill Rhodes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_R._Rhodes) (ex-Citibank). Bill Rhodes and his colleagues basically “invented” modern days’ debt reschedulings beginning with Argentina in the 1980s. What I know today is what I learned from these people then. Search the internet and you will find that they offered their assistance but were politely ignored arguing that the experiences in emerging markets are different from EU-members. Have I said enough?

PS: Bill Rhodes on Europeans (http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2011/07/bill-rhodes-on-europeans.html)

[TotalMayhem]

The Church of Mammon rules, and it rules absolutely...

As the Greek will soon find out, the two names popping up as Papandreou's successor are:

Panagiotis Roumeliotis, alternate director on the IMF board
Loukas Papademos, the former vice prez of the Greek Central Bank

Best do away with silly parties and the let banksters run the show directly.

[C. Flower]

http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/europe-a-democratic-deficit-or-two/

A couple of articles by WorldbyStorm on the same. He quotes Vincent Browne, saying similar at the weekend and also Fintan O'Toole.

O'Toole said similar at Kilkenomics at the weekend. He is right, but his solution is to "renogotiate a new deal with capitalism."

There, I think he is wrong, as capitalism is in no position to negotiate and has reached a point in history at which it needs to be replaced.




Fintan O’Toole puts it pretty well this morning:

What happened was that two of the big shaping forces of western Europe, forces that have been working broadly in tandem for 300 years, clearly fell apart. One force is capitalism; the other democracy. From the Enlightenment onwards, it has been an accepted truth that democracy and capitalism were at the very least compatible with each other. The things that were needed in order for capitalism to develop – the breaking of aristocratic power, the free movement of labour, an open market in ideas, functioning parliaments, independent legal systems, states that could command popular consent and thus underpin stability, taxation to fund mass education and infrastructure – were also conditions for political democracy. They may not have been sufficient conditions, but they were necessary ones.

And continues:

What became so dramatically clear last week was that this compatibility has ended. The leading form of capitalism – the finance capitalism that has expanded so monstrously over the last 30 years – is no longer compatible with democracy in Europe.

And by democracy in this context I mean just the limited, basic form: universal suffrage and sovereign governments. This is a pretty big deal.

And he points to the following:

Consider the three things that happened in Greece and Ireland last week.

Firstly, it was made explicit that the most reckless, irresponsible and ultimately impermissible thing a government could do was to seek the consent of its own people to decisions that would shape their lives. And, indeed, even if it had gone ahead, the Greek referendum would have been largely meaningless. As one Greek MP put it, the question would have been: do you want to take your own life or to be killed? Secondly, there was open and shameless intervention by European leaders (Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy) in the internal affairs of another state. Sarkozy hailed the “courageous and responsible” stance of the main Greek opposition party – in effect a call for the replacement of the elected Greek government.

He also argues, correctly, that the payment to unsecured Anglo-Irish bondholders exemplified a hollowing out of the democratic by the market.

[Griska]

http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2011/11/07/europe-a-democratic-deficit-or-two/

A couple of articles by WorldbyStorm on the same. He quotes Vincent Browne, saying similar at the weekend and also Fintan O'Toole.

O'Toole said similar at Kilkenomics at the weekend. He is right, but his solution is to "renogotiate a new deal with capitalism."

There, I think he is wrong, as capitalism is in no position to negotiate and has reached a point in history at which it needs to be replaced.

But capitalism is not beaten. It's still the dominant ideology and it's proponents are gaining traction by appearing to talk most sense. By that I'm talking about economists who appear to be almost anti-establishment. When you boil down what most of them are saying though, it's basically that we need PROPER capitalism, ie bad investments should incur losses.

Plus, the left is giving no leadership on the issue. I still haven't heard a plausible argument from prominent leftists. I cringe every time I hear Joe Higgins, RBB or Joan Collins still talking about investment in jobs and education, taxing the rich, yada yada.
We won't get enough from the rich, even with a serious progressive tax. We have no money to invest in jobs or education.
Even I know that. And I've only been using the term "ten year bond yields" for a couple of years now.

[barrym]

I presume most posters on here have read the Rolling Stone 2009 piece on Goldman-Shmucks..... Don't have the link to hand but its on here somewhere. If you think capitalism was ever not here there's yer proof.

Fintan really has struck a chord, however, like so much of his rationale over all sorts of things in the last few years, such as the beef tribunal, for example, what has happened?? Not a whole lot, in fact nothing of the kind of thing he suggests, like the people actually telling their pols where to get off. Looking as the Cowan docu last night I asked myself where are all those shouting and roaring medical card holders now??

On the transformation of the EU, over on the Cardiff for the Court of Auditors thread I pointed out that Noonans's response to the press queries about the appointment says just how much real transformation we can expect. The appointment has been ok'd with the European Parliament committee, before the nomination was made. It will take a lot of effort to budge that, that's why Noonan sounds so confident. After all his remarks were briefed to him by (one presumes) Cardiff's successor, an FG person....

The EU is now, as it always been, a child of capitalism, it was founded to avoid wars and talk of wars getting in the way of big business. We might have got rid of the Thyssens and their likes after the war, in name, but not in fact.

[barrym]

Apropos left leadership, I saw the next pres of France, M Hollande, on tv last night, after another turn of the austerity screw by Sarko's lot. What did he say as a Left alternative? F all, he did the usual electioneering stuff, we'll reverse all these things, appoint 60k new teachers, tax the rich, etc., etc. Nothing at all about ******** the banks, sorting out the ECB, re-establishing a socialist agenda...... Hollande is a Blair clone, all sound bite and media management.

[fluffybiscuits]

Apropos left leadership, I saw the next pres of France, M Hollande, on tv last night, after another turn of the austerity screw by Sarko's lot. What did he say as a Left alternative? F all, he did the usual electioneering stuff, we'll reverse all these things, appoint 60k new teachers, tax the rich, etc., etc. Nothing at all about ******** the banks, sorting out the ECB, re-establishing a socialist agenda...... Hollande is a Blair clone, all sound bite and media management.

She seems to be the darling though of the French left and represents a somewhat softer option than Sarky boy himself. But yes I do agree, it seems there is a lot of posturing on her behalf in terms of just promising what they want to hear, populist politics. She reminds me some what of a Shinners head in the run up the election promising the eath the moon and the stars!

[C. Flower]

It doesn't matter whether we elect left or right now, they will either do what Merkozy / the IMF / the bankers say or they will be put out of office.

[DCon]

Seems the EU are no longer willing to take the word of the Greek government. They will want blood next


EU asks Greece for letter pledging implementation of EU bail out deal


Will have to be signed by the new PM, Fin Min, opposition leader and Bk Of Greece governor.


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/11/08/eu-asks-greece-for-letter-pledging-implementation-of-eu-bail-out-deal/

[C. Flower]

Same with Italy - there is much talk of an unelected "technical" government that will sign the deal with the IMF/EU, after which a general election will be held.

[DCon]

Same with Italy - there is much talk of an unelected "technical" government that will sign the deal with the IMF/EU, after which a general election will be held.

No way the German people would allow an unelected "technical" government sign anything with the EU on their behalf.

The Greeks and Italians should take a leaf from the German playbook and consult their Supreme Court

[barrym]

She seems to be the darling though of the French left and represents a somewhat softer option than Sarky boy himself. But yes I do agree, it seems there is a lot of posturing on her behalf in terms of just promising what they want to hear, populist politics. She reminds me some what of a Shinners head in the run up the election promising the eath the moon and the stars!

Your mixing up Martine Aubrey and Hollande, not that it would make much difference, except that she didn't win the primary, because, in French media terms, she isn't "presidentiable" ....Sort of like Michael D until Gallagher self ignited....

I'd venture that Hollande isn't a 'darling' more of a ho-hum, better than Sarko....As I said he is a new socialist like Blair was new labour, read centre right.....used to be left.

It says all that needs to be said about transforming the EU, there is no left left....

[fluffybiscuits]

Your mixing up Martine Aubrey and Hollande, not that it would make much difference, except that she didn't win the primary, because, in French media terms, she isn't "presidentiable" ....Sort of like Michael D until Gallagher self ignited....

I'd venture that Hollande isn't a 'darling' more of a ho-hum, better than Sarko....As I said he is a new socialist like Blair was new labour, read centre right.....used to be left.

It says all that needs to be said about transforming the EU, there is no left left....

Thanks for clearing that up for me! When you say left left do you mean extremem left or there is no room at all for the left?

[C. Flower]

Your mixing up Martine Aubrey and Hollande, not that it would make much difference, except that she didn't win the primary, because, in French media terms, she isn't "presidentiable" ....Sort of like Michael D until Gallagher self ignited....

I'd venture that Hollande isn't a 'darling' more of a ho-hum, better than Sarko....As I said he is a new socialist like Blair was new labour, read centre right.....used to be left.

It says all that needs to be said about transforming the EU, there is no left left....

The transformation of the EU has been nothing to do with elections. Elected Prime Ministers are being forced out and replaced by unelected bodies.
Nobody elected the Frankfurt Group. Its transformation would better be called its break up from within, by France and Germany.

[C. Flower]

No way the German people would allow an unelected "technical" government sign anything with the EU on their behalf.

The Greeks and Italians should take a leaf from the German playbook and consult their Supreme Court

They should. As we should have when the 4 year plan was cemented in before our General Election.

[DCon]

Goldman, representing the Markets, say NO to a General Election in Italy


Least likely scenarios: After Berlusconi’s resignation, general elections are called.
These could be held in mid-January at the earliest, although they would most likely be postponed until the Spring amid market turmoil.

This would represent the worst scenario for markets, in our view. Since President Napolitano is aware of this, he will probably try to resist dissolving Parliament at this juncture. Also, most centrist parties would want to change the electoral law before a new vote takes place.

All these scenarios will take some time to play out, a couple of weeks at least. In the meantime, the higher priced Italian government bonds will continue to be sold, as gradually higher margin requirements are applied. On our central case, intermediate to long-end bonds should continue to be supported relative to AAA-rated securities by the ECB.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-sachs-italy-whats-next

[C. Flower]

I was just asking myself if a "technical government" would be legal under the Irish Constitution. It's hard to see how it could be.

Although Lenihan and Cowen, with their corporeal cabinet meetings, and "advisers", came close to it.

[morticia]

They should. As we should have when the 4 year plan was cemented in before our General Election.

Sigh. Mind you, do we prefer bureaucratic sclerosis or dictatorship by Merkosy? I have a feeling that all of this is a bit like the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke.

It will end in the same collapse, perhaps, regardless of which path is followed.

The EU is insolvent as an entity, and will become more so, the more the rich countries try to squirrel their assets away from everyone else.

Like it or not, the squirreling will ensure Euro collapse, which means no-one will be able to afford German cars anyway.

So they're going to have to pay, one way or another. There's two easy ways out of this; bail everyone out using the printing press, or just allow the system to collapse now. Why do I know that the agony will be drawn out for as long as damagingly possible?

[DCon]

When Goldman say the Italian President is aware of X, you can bet that a Goldman rep (ECB head possibly) has made it very clear

If it was our President, Sutherland would be on the phone

[morticia]

When Goldman say the Italian President is aware of X, you can bet that a Goldman rep (ECB head possibly) has made it very clear

If it was our President, Sutherland would be on the phone

Hmm, I wonder what Michael D. would make of that? He is somewhat independently minded.....

[C. Flower]

Sigh. Mind you, do we prefer bureaucratic sclerosis or dictatorship by Merkosy? I have a feeling that all of this is a bit like the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke.

It will end in the same collapse, perhaps, regardless of which path is followed.

The EU is insolvent as an entity, and will become more so, the more the rich countries try to squirrel their assets away from everyone else.

Like it or not, the squirreling will ensure Euro collapse, which means no-one will be able to afford German cars anyway.

So they're going to have to pay, one way or another. There's two easy ways out of this; bail everyone out using the printing press, or just allow the system to collapse now. Why do I know that the agony will be drawn out for as long as damagingly possible?

Because you've watched it going on for such a long time. It's going on for two years since we had our "Greek default inevitable" thread here.

Printing won't cure it either. It will lead to a hyperinflation, and put poor people on pensions and anyone on a fixed income through the agonies of the damned.

[DCon]

Hmm, I wonder what Michael D. would make of that? He is somewhat independently minded.....

It will never happen while ALL our major political parties are fully compliant and believe the ECB can empty the ATMs overnight in spite of the Greece ATMs still working

[morticia]

Printing won't cure it either. It will lead to a hyperinflation, and put poor people on pensions and anyone on a fixed income through the agonies of the damned.

In this instance, I don't think so.... the bad debts and black holes in the banks are so huge that the deflationary pressures are so huge.

If someone had the self restraint to confine themselves to bond buying and bank bailouts merely to maintain the status quo, we could be OK.

It's not all or nothing. The trick to avoiding inflation is to avoid letting the money out into the real world....just stabilize the black holes. Think of the converse; how much cash gets wiped if half of Europe's banks go down? one word..... hyperdeflation.

[DCon]

Prime Time calling a spade a spade and saying the EU/ECB have gotten rid of the Italian and Greek PM's

[morticia]

Prime Time calling a spade a spade and saying the EU/ECB have gotten rid of the Italian and Greek PM's

I hate to say this, but in comparison with some foreign media outlets, RTE are actually occasionally capable of not talking about "earth inverting horticultural implements". Especially when it comes to the odd bit of foreign news.

[C. Flower]

Prime Time calling a spade a spade and saying the EU/ECB have gotten rid of the Italian and Greek PM's

I missed that. There is still discussion on all the stations of "technical governments" as though they were legal and normal.

Megan Greene acknowledged otherwise.

[Klaus Kastner]

Very sophisticated articles and blog posts are being published every day about technical solutions to the Greek and European debt problem. They range from Eurobonds to EFSF-leveraging to Modest Proposals, etc. etc. There are undoubtedly brilliant minds at work.

Here is an appeal to all those brilliant minds: the Greek debt is not going to go away regardless how smart the technical solutions are. On the contrary, the foreign debt of Greece is going to rise going forward; it cannot decline (unless the discussed haircut comes through but even that will be but a drop on a hot stone). So why devote so much brainpower to something which has no near-term solution instead of applying it to specific proposals as to how the Greek economy could become strong? The stronger the Greek economy becomes, the greater the likelihood that more Greek debt can eventually be repaid (or rather: refinanced in capital markets).

The appeal is: come up with proposals how the Greek economy can be transformed into a value-generating, competitive market economy, and grow! One such proposal is here (http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2011/09/endgame-for-greece.html). Come up with many more!

One could argue that no growth plans for the economy can be implemented before the debt problem is solved. True. But keep it simple!

My suggestion: commit to the holders of Greece's sovereign debt that, say, 10% of government expenditures will be allocated to interest payments over the next 10 years. And then let financial engineers work out combinations of amounts/tenors/interest which can be supported by that amount of interest payments.

Growth is the answer to most debt problems!

[C. Flower]

Very sophisticated articles and blog posts are being published every day about technical solutions to the Greek and European debt problem. They range from Eurobonds to EFSF-leveraging to Modest Proposals, etc. etc. There are undoubtedly brilliant minds at work.

Here is an appeal to all those brilliant minds: the Greek debt is not going to go away regardless how smart the technical solutions are. On the contrary, the foreign debt of Greece is going to rise going forward; it cannot decline (unless the discussed haircut comes through but even that will be but a drop on a hot stone). So why devote so much brainpower to something which has no near-term solution instead of applying it to specific proposals as to how the Greek economy could become strong? The stronger the Greek economy becomes, the greater the likelihood that more Greek debt can eventually be repaid (or rather: refinanced in capital markets).

The appeal is: come up with proposals how the Greek economy can be transformed into a value-generating, competitive market economy, and grow! One such proposal is here (http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2011/09/endgame-for-greece.html). Come up with many more!

One could argue that no growth plans for the economy can be implemented before the debt problem is solved. True. But keep it simple!

My suggestion: commit to the holders of Greece's sovereign debt that, say, 10% of government expenditures will be allocated to interest payments over the next 10 years. And then let financial engineers work out combinations of amounts/tenors/interest which can be supported by that amount of interest payments.

Growth is the answer to most debt problems!

You are absolutely right imo, and I've wearied with studying these "solutions", because what they have in common is that they are no more real than the attempts to find the philosopher's stone and transmute base metal into gold.

But for capitalism to work, there must be growth everywhere, which is simply not sustainable. There is overproduction, prices collapse, then comes unemployment and unrepayable debt.

The reason Germany is in the EU is to sell things to the Greeks, not to buy from them, surely ?

It seems very likely to me that Greece could be more productive, and lacks investment. If Greece was the only country in trouble, and if it wasn't up against Germany, and China, and the rest of the world, it could work.

But under the present set up, I can't see how it would.

[unspecific]

By the end of this year, every single one of the PIGS will have had their government fall before term and replaced with a Merkozy approved government - some not even elected. That is one helluva co-ordinated revolution.

[Dr. FIVE]

Taoiseach must be an (elected) TD Cass

[C. Flower]

Megan Greene has a blog on the euro crisis.

I'm not sure that her idea of what a "democratic deficit" is the same as mine. To me, it means not enough democracy - to Megan, it seems it means that democracy gets in the way of the needs of the market economy...

http://economistmeg.com/

[antiestablishmentarian]

Could we have a technical government too I wonder? If (when) Italy goes, then we are probably going to default too, at least once the bondholders have been paid off in full. There could be serious unrest post-Budget, and if it looks like there's a possibility the coalition will split up, I could see a situation where Inda and Gilmore are given the boot and replaced by a cabinet of hardline neo-liberals, with a national government including FF formed to try and ram through austerity measures. In such a case Bruton, Varadkar, Creighton, Coveney and the remnants of the PD gene-pool could form a cabinet.

[C. Flower]

Could we have a technical government too I wonder? If (when) Italy goes, then we are probably going to default too, at least once the bondholders have been paid off in full. There could be serious unrest post-Budget, and if it looks like there's a possibility the coalition will split up, I could see a situation where Inda and Gilmore are given the boot and replaced by a cabinet of hardline neo-liberals, with a national government including FF formed to try and ram through austerity measures. In such a case Bruton, Varadkar, Creighton, Coveney and the remnants of the PD gene-pool could form a cabinet.

Sutherland the obvious candidate to head that up. :D

Deputy Head of the ECB to take Greece over...


Greece's party leaders have been locked in talks since Monday on who will lead a short-term coalition, agreed to push through an EU/IM bailout deal, until early elections in February.
European Central Bank deputy head Lucas Papademos is tipped to be the new prime minister of a crisis coalition, but details have yet to be ironed out, a source from the ruling socialists has said.
The current socialist cabinet is due to step down and make way for a coalition of national unity under an agreement between the governing and opposition parties on Sunday.

[antiestablishmentarian]

Noticed that alright, have to say it's quite worrying how this is going on and most people seem unaware that what is happening is in reality a coup. Ireland is not immune from this, in fact I'd say the real coup happened last November, because we knew in the GE that none of the parties with a serious shot of getting into government would change the IMF/ECB deal, and in effect they ran on a platform of 'competence', who was best to administer the deal, rather than whether they should have a mandate to reject the deal and implement an economic alternative. Sadly people fell for it. That to my mind is the problem with framing what has happened to the economy as simple incompetence, yes there was plenty of that, but the people in charge know what they are doing and these measures show that they are far-sighted and ruthless enough to make decisive actions like this technocratic coup. On the other hand, this is clearly not business as usual, and the fact they've intervened in Italy before the austerity budget is passed shows they're widening the net, or perhaps they know something that we don't (yet...).

[Dr. FIVE]

Bruton or some such would be summoned down from the IFSC to take over I expect.
Which would seem a waste given he arguably implement the policies better from there then Leinster house.

[C. Flower]

Noticed that alright, have to say it's quite worrying how this is going on and most people seem unaware that what is happening is in reality a coup. Ireland is not immune from this, in fact I'd say the real coup happened last November, because we knew in the GE that none of the parties with a serious shot of getting into government would change the IMF/ECB deal, and in effect they ran on a platform of 'competence', who was best to administer the deal, rather than whether they should have a mandate to reject the deal and implement an economic alternative. Sadly people fell for it. That to my mind is the problem with framing what has happened to the economy as simple incompetence, yes there was plenty of that, but the people in charge know what they are doing and these measures show that they are far-sighted and ruthless enough to make decisive actions like this technocratic coup. On the other hand, this is clearly not business as usual, and the fact they've intervened in Italy before the austerity budget is passed shows they're widening the net, or perhaps they know something that we don't (yet...).

This careful timing of IMF/EU Programmes into the last days before a General Election has been done in Ireland and I think in either Spain or Portugal. Or was it both?

But there is a gulf between that, and the imposition of a barely legal regime change.

People would be within their rights to bring the country to a standstill to get an election.

[antiestablishmentarian]

[QUOTE]This careful timing of IMF/EU Programmes into the last days before a General Election has been done in Ireland and I think in either Spain or Portugal. Or was it both?It was in Portugal, Spain hasn't had the IMF boys in yet.

But there is a gulf between that, and the imposition of a barely legal regime change.

People would be within their rights to bring the country to a standstill to get an election.I think the gulf is in form rather than substance to be honest, this unelected Greek government will take over provisionally to ram through the second bailout with elections pending, then they will stand down. Cowen's government wasn't very different from this, as he was unelected and his government lost its mandate when they decided on the Guarantee. They certainly had no mandate to lock us into a Four Year deal, sign off on the EU/IMF deal and impose the austerity budget, in that respect they were no different from the new Greek government. In any case, I think we're well off topic and should perhaps split these posts into a different discussion.

[C. Flower]

[quote=C. Flower;199293]It was in Portugal, Spain hasn't had the IMF boys in yet.
I think the gulf is in form rather than substance to be honest, this unelected Greek government will take over provisionally to ram through the second bailout with elections pending, then they will stand down. Cowen's government wasn't very different from this, as he was unelected and his government lost its mandate when they decided on the Guarantee. They certainly had no mandate to lock us into a Four Year deal, sign off on the EU/IMF deal and impose the austerity budget, in that respect they were no different from the new Greek government. In any case, I think we're well off topic and should perhaps split these posts into a different discussion.

Not off topic, as I started this thread specifically to draw attention to and discuss the unprecedented shifts in political institutions - and outside them - in the last month, with Merkel and Sarkozy ignoring EU legalities in favour of raw power, and with the proposed insertion of ECB officials as PMs. I agree with Fintan O'Toole up to a certain point, in that capitalism is no longer able to co-exist with parliamentary democracy in Europe. The EU institutions are either being sidelined or rapidly transformed.

I'm very sure this is a new political phase that it would be very dangerous to ignore.

[C. Flower]

I don't disagree with you, that what happened in Ireland was a gross abuse of the democratic process. The Labour Party and Fine Gael were both called in behind closed doors and squared with the deal, before the election. The public was kept out of the loop and offered no real alternative.

There were however other parties standing, the ULA and SF and Independents, who were able to offer opposition.

[DCon]

Italian politician just interviewed on CNBC. He seemed unimpressed at the suggestion that the "Markets" would be happy with a unity government.

He said Italy needed elections last week but tomorrow will do.

CNBC saying an election is "unlikely" as Mr market does not want it

[antiestablishmentarian]

Italian politician just interviewed on CNBC. He seemed unimpressed at the suggestion that the "Markets" would be happy with a unity government.

He said Italy needed elections last week but tomorrow will do.

CNBC saying an election is "unlikely" as Mr market does not want it

Joe Higgins gets a lot of slack for his rhetoric and use of what alot of people would consider jargon and meaningless 19th century phraseology (the way a right-wing friend of mine described him :)). However, I must say the points Joe continuously makes about the dictatorship of the markets is spot on and is quite far-sighted. If only the ULA would get their act together :(

[cdgalwegian]

[quote=antiestablishmentarian;199297]

. I agree with Fintan O'Toole up to a certain point, in that capitalism is no longer able to co-exist with parliamentary democracy in Europe. The EU institutions are either being sidelined or rapidly transformed.

.

Not been able to post for a while, but noticed a blending of misgivings within the thread regarding the EU project as a whole, concerning the role of capitalism within democracy, and how they influence each other via EU institutions.

The paradigm example we should refer to is the federal republic of America. It should always be referred to as what John Pilger called "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy". The trouble is we use the word "capitalism", when really we mean libertarian capitalism. We have quasi-capitalism- it's not libertarian capitalism, and its not socialism. But It's not just a continuum of the two. Allow me to name-drop again: what America is- and what European elites want the EU to be- is what James K. Galbraith called "The Predator State" where private business elites get to leech off the public purse through legal frameworks. This has more dramatically been borne out in public bailouts of private risk-taking.
In the EU context, the antidote to the profit motive is regulation, underwritten by transparency, but the emerging Predator State shows its colours in its drive for deregulation, particularly of the financial sector- allowing the casino capitalism of late.

We can analyse what's happening, but the question still remains: what can we do? As far as I know, our constitution can be a thorn in the EU's side vis-a-vis transfer of political sovereignty (fiscal sovereignty transfer seems another matter). If large-scale changes are coming for the EU to adapt to present and future economic turmoil, political integration would be inevitable, meaning the democratic deficicit would only worsen. Could we be in the position to "hold the cards" to influence the ongoing transformation of the EU through a veto position, possibly destabilising the Euro, and potentially the EU? If so, would we bottle it because we're broke and need cash? Are we willing to bite the hand that feeds us, knowing that the collar around our neck is being tightened?

[DCon]

Frau M says we need a new treaty


* Time for a change/breakthrough
* Declarations of intent are insufficient, need monitored structural reforms
* Need a new EU treaty
* Political community cannot survive if it can’t cope with changes
* Urgent reforms needed, world isn’t waiting for Europe


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/11/09/germanys-chancellor-merkelsituation-in-europe-is-very-unpleasant/

[DCon]

2 speed Europe anyone?


German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve establishing a more integrated and potentially smaller euro zone, EU sources say. French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave some flavour of his thinking during an address to students in the eastern French city of Strasbourg on Tuesday, when he said a two-speed Europe -- the euro zone moving ahead more rapidly than all 27 countries in the EU -- was the only model for the future." It gets much worse: "The discussions among senior policymakers in Paris, Berlin and Brussels go further, raising the possibility of one or more countries leaving the euro zone, while the remaining core pushes on towards deeper economic integration, including on tax and fiscal policy."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/game-over-reuters-says-germany-france-exploring-idea-core-euro-zone-end-existing-structure

[cdgalwegian]

2 speed Europe anyone?



Grrr. I've been mulling this over for a while, but the mechanics of it, and my lack of indepth knowledge of institutional workings are daunting for my small mind.

Intuitively it seems a practical way to go to overcome lomg-term instability, but straightaway the question of equality, via a community of nations, raises its head- are the economically profligate going to become 2nd class politically? Democracy subservient to economics yet again?

[DCon]

more of it


Wow. An absolute bomb from German paper Handlesblatt: "German CDU party (Merkel's) wants to make it possible for members to exit Euro-zone."

http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

Also on zerohedge


RMBS patents ruled invalidGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party wants to make it possible for European Union members to exit the euro area, Handelsblatt reported in a preview of an article to be published tomorrow, citing unnamed participants in the discussion.

A commission within the party, that is crafting a framework to be presented at a party meeting, has proposed allowing a euro member who doesn’t want to or isn’t able to comply with the common currency rules to leave the euro region without losing membership in the EU, the newspaper said.




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-merkel-just-usher-deustche-mark

[C. Flower]

more of it

http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

Plenty of chat about it.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/

It's inevitable. And once it's possible to leave, it's possible to push.

[cdgalwegian]

It's inevitable. And once it's possible to leave, it's possible to push.

Nicely put.
(pun alert) When 'push comes to shove', what will happen to the EU project with a 2 speed Europe (assuming this comes to fruition)?

[C. Flower]

Declan Ganley, anti Lisbon campaigner, is offering this solution...


@brianios @GTCost @brianmlucey LoL OK: Purge & liquidate all insolvent EU banks. Federalise sov debt. Fed gov with full democratic control.

[C. Flower]

Fraser Nelson, in the Spectator - on the Frankfurt Group -

http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7378428/europes-hit-squad.thtml


The group cannot be accused of being secretive. At the G20 summit in Cannes, its officials walked around with lapel badges saying ‘Groupe de Francfort (GdF)’ and met four times. Britain was not included but the Foreign Office’s officials spoke as if they were in on the act. As one official put it: ‘We’re on our way to moving out Berlusconi.’

Such a statement may once have been seen as outrageous, but by last weekend it was undeniable that an operation to remove Berlusconi had begun. When Merkel and Sarkozy were asked if they had confidence in him, they rolled their eyes and gave each other wry smiles. The European Central Bank, which is also part of the Frankfurt Group, gave only minimal support to Italy — leaving the bond markets to do their worst to Berlusconi. The International Monetary Fund, whose new leader was also at the Opera house that night, made it clear that it would be sending its auditors to Rome on a regular basis to inspect the books. All this combined to send an unmistakable Old Europe message: we have ways of making you quit.

When that night in Frankfurt’s Alte Oper on 19 October was booked, no one was intending to form a new hit squad. The plan was to have just an ordinary taxpayer-funded extravaganza, a shindig to mark Jean-Claude Trichet’s retirement from the European Central Bank. Helmut Schmidt, the 92-year-old former chancellor of Germany who is now seen as a godfather of the European project, told the assembled dignitaries that ‘a crisis in the ability to act of the EU’s political bodies’ was ‘a much bigger danger for the future of Europe than over-indebtedness’. It was time to get tough.

When Merkel spoke, she admitted frustration with European summits and their cumbersome democratic mechanics. ‘The EU’s ability to act and room for manoeuvre has proven slow and complicated,’ she complained. ‘If we want to seize the crisis as an opportunity, we must be prepared to act more quickly and even in unconventional ways.’ Sarkozy arrived late, but just in time for the stitch-up of the decade.

Also in attendance was the new head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, an Italian with no love for Berlusconi. Then Christine Lagarde, the new (French) director of the International Monetary Fund, who is in charge of bailouts and can impose humiliating conditions (as she went on to do to Berlusconi). There was Jose Manuel Barroso, the increasingly thuggish European Commission president, and his economic sidekick Olli Rehn. The omnipresent Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister of Luxembourg and head of the 17-nation eurozone group, was there with Herman Van Rompuy, who was elected EU president because he has no opinions on anything.

So the Frankfurt Group is, in effect, a merger between the EU hierarchy and German financial power: a kind of Brussels on the Rhine. It would not have been possible in the pre-crisis era when there were qualms about German might. Now the Germans are no longer apologetic. ‘The question of who could accept a German model has been settled by the market,’ said a German government spokesman recently. ‘We are really only talking about the details and the extent of the measures, not about their nature.’ This new, pugilistic tone is felt everywhere. Anonymous EU officials are now being quoted as saying things like: ‘Yes, wake up and smell the coffee. This is what you all signed up for.’

[Kev Bar]

When Merkel spoke, she admitted frustration with European summits and their cumbersome democratic mechanics. ‘The EU’s ability to act and room for manoeuvre has proven slow and complicated,’ she complained. ‘If we want to seize the crisis as an opportunity, we must be prepared to act more quickly and even in unconventional ways.’ Sarkozy arrived late, but just in time for the stitch-up of the decade.

Cactus, that reminds me of you.

[C. Flower]

Cactus, that reminds me of you.

Fight fire with fire :D

[DCon]

Plenty of chat about it.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/

It's inevitable. And once it's possible to leave, it's possible to push.

Didn't take long


So it is somewhat surprising that in under 24 hours we discovery that this proposal has just escalated substantially: according to the just released Handelsblatt update, "The CDU wants to change the EU treaties to not allow the departure of a debt-ridden country from the euro zone, but also their expulsion

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cdu-escalates-plans-eu-treaty-adjustment-wants-option-involuntary-eurozone-expulsion

[cdgalwegian]

Is the financial crisis being used as blackmail / leverage for further political integration?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/1112/1224307456140.html

Will the ECB finally start printing buckets of money as a short-term solution, for the long-term aim of integration without more and better democracy, once agreement on further integration is agreed? By "saving" the Euro, would we be played- by further sacrificing democratic accountability to unelected technocrats?

[C. Flower]

As of this morning, there appear to me to be two technocratic/technical dictatorships in operation, in Greece and in Italy - and these governments seem to me to be directly the creatures of a dysfunctional and failing neoliberal EU project.

[C. Flower]

Cormac Lucey in today's Irish edition of the Mail.


As a political and economic project, the Euro has failed spectacularly. It was supposed to be a stage along the road to greater European integration – it has unleashed powerful forces of disintegration. It was supposed to integrate the economies of Europe – it has aggravated the boom and bust tendencies of all economies. It was supposed to promote a democratic United States of Europe – it has empowered an authoritarian directorate led by Germany and France.

http://cormaclucey.blogspot.com/2011/11/endgame-for-euro.html?spref=tw

[Andrew49]

Cormac Lucey in today's Irish edition of the Mail.

http://cormaclucey.blogspot.com/2011/11/endgame-for-euro.html?spref=tw


Every ECB action, no matter how well-meaning, in the absence of political and therefore democratic-based approaches further undermines the democratic legitimacy of the euro.

Powerful read. Seems we ARE in the €uro endgame times.

[barrym]

As of this morning, there appear to me to be two technocratic/technical dictatorships in operation, in Greece and in Italy - and these governments seem to me to be directly the creatures of a neoliberal EU project.

I am bemused at this sudden rush to demonise the EU for being undemocratic, even Fintan should realise that it is club of big countries. As I said earlier, it was created after the war to stop war getting in the way of business, it hasn't changed.

That said, we, as a small, insignificant, entity on the periphery need to be in there, even more so now that we have sort of managed to get our economy out of the hands of the Brits (although Mr Quinn has a handy way of ignoring that :rolleyes:). The only other thing we needed to do in our 30+ years of membership is to start realising we can only sell certain things to the rest of the EU as a basis for our economy, food. We are belatedly working on that now, faced with a significant reduction in the farm handouts.

The interference in Italy and Greece is a requirement of the "markets", not much to do with the EU economy, where making and selling things inside our fortress should be the primary function.

Let's get on with that.

[C. Flower]

I am bemused at this sudden rush to demonise the EU for being undemocratic, even Fintan should realise that it is club of big countries. As I said earlier, it was created after the war to stop war getting in the way of business, it hasn't changed.

That said, we, as a small, insignificant, entity on the periphery need to be in there, even more so now that we have sort of managed to get our economy out of the hands of the Brits (although Mr Quinn has a handy way of ignoring that :rolleyes:). The only other thing we needed to do in our 30+ years of membership is to start realising we can only sell certain things to the rest of the EU as a basis for our economy, food. We are belatedly working on that now, faced with a significant reduction in the farm handouts.

The interference in Italy and Greece is a requirement of the "markets", not much to do with the EU economy, where making and selling things inside our fortress should be the primary function.

Let's get on with that.


The topic of the thread is the political transformation of Europe. I would be bemused if people didn't recognise that installation of unelected governments to force through measures not accepted by the population is a new political development of historic proportions.

[cdgalwegian]

I am bemused at this sudden rush to demonise the EU for being undemocratic, even Fintan should realise that it is club of big countries. As I said earlier, it was created after the war to stop war getting in the way of business, it hasn't changed.

That said, we, as a small, insignificant, entity on the periphery need to be in there.

Politics, as in life, is about compromise. We sold, and are selling, our sovereignty; that was our choice. The question I have a posed a number of times is what can we do "as a small, insignificant, entity on the periphery", with a constitutional requirement for referenda with transfer of political sovereignty? (there is the technical issue of what differentiates economic decisions from political ones).
I think I, like many in Ireland (and Europe) liked the look of the EU brochure, but the neo-liberal agenda has hijacked the coach, taking us to a different destination.
Could our constitution be a line in the sand when such transfer is required, which we could use to enforce more democracy over losing economic pollicy?

[barrym]

Apropos CF and CDGalwegian; we joined a political club, we didn't have the cop, or maybe we did, initially, to see it for what is was, a place where they gave you handouts so that you could spend it on the goods produced by the others. That's also politics.

There was only one political thing we needed to do, look after our own interests, like the others do. When we joined the € we tied ourselves, politically, to the economic development of the 17 others who joined then or later. We might also have asked what were the Greek credentials to be a member. But no, we were so enamoured with being one of the boys, we forgot the political realities.

Of course the direction we are going in is wrong, but what did we do to stop it happening? we are a fully paid up member of the political club. If you want to know why listen closely to the waffle of Minister Noonan, in there amongst the convoluted rhetoric is the reality, we have decided to swallow the medicine, and that includes agreeing to allow the bureaucrats run the countries who don't play by our rules. After all they are running ours and we seem to like it. Don't forget Mr Cardiff will soon become our man in the Court of Auditors, which will ensure we don't get criticised for wasting 30+ years of handouts.

Me, cynical, never!!! ;)

[cdgalwegian]

[QUOTE=barrym;200202]Of course the direction we are going in is wrong, but what did we do to stop it happening? QUOTE]

My question re political transformation, regards further political transfer of sovereignty., on the back of economic loss of sovereignty (which I am willing to forego, because we are run by incompetents).
Could we hold Europe to ransom (i.e. having a backbone, now we've seen the light) through the constitutional need for a referendum with the transfer of further political sovereignty down the line? Could we enforce more democracy as a bargaining chip, in the inevitable(?) event of a major treaty change?

[C. Flower]

Apropos CF and CDGalwegian; we joined a political club, we didn't have the cop, or maybe we did, initially, to see it for what is was, a place where they gave you handouts so that you could spend it on the goods produced by the others. That's also politics.

There was only one political thing we needed to do, look after our own interests, like the others do. When we joined the € we tied ourselves, politically, to the economic development of the 17 others who joined then or later. We might also have asked what were the Greek credentials to be a member. But no, we were so enamoured with being one of the boys, we forgot the political realities.

Of course the direction we are going in is wrong, but what did we do to stop it happening? we are a fully paid up member of the political club. If you want to know why listen closely to the waffle of Minister Noonan, in there amongst the convoluted rhetoric is the reality, we have decided to swallow the medicine, and that includes agreeing to allow the bureaucrats run the countries who don't play by our rules. After all they are running ours and we seem to like it. Don't forget Mr Cardiff will soon become our man in the Court of Auditors, which will ensure we don't get criticised for wasting 30+ years of handouts.

Me, cynical, never!!! ;)

I don't include myself in that "we" as I voted and argued against this fix up the whole way along.

There were no "handouts." We were paid a paltry amount of compensation for permanent free access to our markets, and for the downward leverage our less developed economy exerts on the currency in which the big economies trade.

[PaddyJoe]

Remember the pledge that Greek elections would be scheduled for 19 February 2012? That promise didn't last very long:

Bitter rivals, the parties have said they will do what is needed for Greece to fulfil commitments it has agreed to with the European Union and International Monetary Fund ahead of an election initially slated for February 19.

But Theodoros Pangalos, a returning deputy prime minister from the previous cabinet, said the government could stay in power longer than the initially envisioned 100 days.

"I don't know if it will be 100 days. It could be 120 or 150. In any case it will last for the first quarter of the year," Pangalos told state television NET on Saturday.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/uk-greece-f-idUKTRE7AA2R420111112

[C. Flower]

Remember the pledge that Greek elections would be scheduled for 19 February 2012? That promise didn't last very long:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/uk-greece-f-idUKTRE7AA2R420111112

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_Papademos


Papademos was proposed for the position of Prime Minister of Greece on 10 November 2011, after the head of the governing party, George Papandreou, decided to step down, and allow a provisional coalition government to form with the task of taking Greece out of the major political crisis caused by the country's debt crisis.[8][9]

Lucas Papademos set two conditions in order to accept being the prime minister of an interim government. First, that the new government would not have a very restricted life span as the New Democracy party had demanded and secondly, that political figures from both main political parties, PASOK and New Democracy, would participate, which was also vetoed by New Democracy.[10] Eventually New Democracy yielded to Papademos' demands, and the new cabinet includes Ministers from PASOK, New Democracy and the far right Popular Orthodox Rally.

After a week of political turmoil, the new coalition cabinet and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos were formally sworn in on 11 November 2011.[11] The new government is a coalition between three of five parliamentary parties, PASOK, New Democracy and the Popular Orthodox Rally. The remaining two parliamentary parties, the Communist Party and the Coalition of the Radical Left Party, had refused Papandreou's invitation to join talks on a new unity government.[12] It is the first time that the far right has joined a Greek government since a military junta fell in 1974.[13]

The coalition government's main task is to allow the EU bailout to proceed and eventually to pave the way for elections. Papademos, who is not an elected MP, has said his priority will be to keep Greece in the eurozone.[14]

I think people are much underestimating the seriousness of this.

The fact that PASOK was prepared to hand over to this unelected body says more about PASOK, and its failure to protect democratic rights, than it does about any legitimacy held by the new government.

[disability student]

These politicans aren't capable of solving a problem such as this. It makes you wonder why they are to be given this task. Better leave to professionals rather than any politican/s with regards to the Eurozone problem.

In the same vein, FG/Lab aren't capable of solving our economic problem as they aren't creative when it comes to 4 year programme/s. Same 4 year programme devised by the FF as FG are taking it all along. Hence no flexibility and lack of ideas coming from this govt administration.

The dogs on the street know that FG/Lab whose austerity programme isn't working. You simply cannot just keeping CUTTING the cuts with nothing in return in 4 years in the process as something has to give. For example,say cut the welfare payments, grants so on with a reduction in Vat or reduction in Inflation. It would enable them to manage.

So far to now the inflation have increased digging more deeper into the lower take home pay as contraction results.

What does that mean for us- Lower take home pay with inflation and Vat increased-> Vat returns down, Income tax down and less spending by the consumer. The consequneces would be downward spiral with little chance of recovery along with no new employment. In other words, it was/is stagnating much worse and further dampening our domestic demand- economy in the process.

Next year, FG/Lab govt plan to increase 2% in Vat from 21% to 23%. It's huge mistake as DOF haven't learned anything. Ex finance minister made that mistake which he reversed the VAT increase within a year.

Why place the faith in the politicans as they aren't capable of doing it right?

[C. Flower]

These politicans aren't capable of solving a problem such as this. It makes you wonder why they are to be given this task. Better leave to professionals rather than any politican/s with regards to the Eurozone problem.

In the same vein, FG/Lab aren't capable of solving our economic problem as they aren't creative when it comes to 4 year programme/s. Same 4 year programme devised by the FF as FG are taking it all along. Hence no flexibility and lack of ideas coming from this govt administration.

The dogs on the street know that FG/Lab whose austerity programme isn't working. You simply cannot just keeping CUTTING the cuts with nothing in return in 4 years in the process as something has to give. For example,say cut the welfare payments, grants so on with a reduction in Vat or reduction in Inflation. It would enable them to manage.

So far to now the inflation have increased digging more deeper into the lower take home pay as contraction results.

What does that mean for us- Lower take home pay with inflation and Vat increased-> Vat returns down, Income tax down and less spending by the consumer. The consequneces would be downward spiral with little chance of recovery along with no new employment. In other words, it was/is stagnating much worse and further dampening our domestic demand- economy in the process.

Next year, FG/Lab govt plan to increase 2% in Vat from 21% to 23%. It's huge mistake as DOF haven't learned anything. Ex finance minister made that mistake which he reversed the VAT increase within a year.

Why place the faith in the politicans as they aren't capable of doing it right?

Why do you think that this bankers' man will do any better ? Whose interests is he there to represent ?

[disability student]

Why do you think that this bankers' man will do any better ? Whose interests is he there to represent ?

Why not leave to professionals except for bankers to sort out the problem whether it be a Eurozone or Irish economy? It's clear that these politicans do have interests which may conflict with their duty to serve the country or the EU in general. Hence unworkable and confusing picture that we are seeing it now.

[C. Flower]

Why not leave to professionals except for bankers to sort out the problem whether it be a Eurozone or Irish economy? It's clear that these politicans do have interests which may conflict with their duty to serve the country or the EU in general. Hence unworkable and confusing picture that we are seeing it now.

Well, Papademos is a bankers' economist.

I asked a panel of economists at Kilkenomics what they thought of "Technical Governments" - without exception (including Megan Greene, McWilliams, the Argentinian Lousteau, and some Americans), they said they were a bad idea - they said economists know nothing about governing and even the worst politician is many times better.

Is there really such a thing as an "EU interest" that is in the interests of all of us ?

[disability student]

[QUOTE=C. Flower;200251]Well, Papademos is a bankers' economist.


Why did they pick him even he's not elected something to do with his background in economics?


I asked a panel of economists at Kilkenomics what they thought of "Technical Governments" - without exception (including Megan Greene, McWilliams, the Argentinian Lousteau, and some Americans), they said they were a bad idea - they said economists know nothing about governing and even the worst politician is many times better.


They may be right on that score. Economists tends to be less corrupt than any worst politican. On the issue of governing, politicans are good at that. Perhaps we could look at a form of hybrid skill politican/economist with regard to Papademos.



Is there really such a thing as an "EU interest" that is in the interests of all of us

Don't believe in the notion of EU interest as i would say it may be favoring some of the elities such as Barroso's brother. It's strongly favoured in the interest of German/French axis at heart. Smaller countries such as Ireland, please take heed of this.

[C. Flower]

[quote]

Why did they pick him even he's not elected something to do with his background in economics?



They may be right on that score. Economists tends to be less corrupt than any worst politican. On the issue of governing, politicans are good at that. Perhaps we could look at a form of hybrid skill politican/economist with regard to Papademos.



Don't believe in the notion of EU interest as i would say it may be favoring some of the elities such as Barroso's brother. It's strongly favoured in the interest of German/French axis at heart. Smaller countries such as Ireland, please take heed of this.


The question is, who picked him ?

It certainly wasn't the Greek people.

Here is his background.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_Papademos

http://mediabite.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/introducing-greeces-new-pm-lucas-papademos/

[disability student]

[quote=disability student;200253]

[QUOTE]
The question is, who picked him ?

Very good question!

Thanks CF re his background. One thing jumped at me was that he ensured the smooth transtition from Drachma to Euros.

[C. Flower]

[quote=C. Flower;200255][quote=disability student;200253]



Very good question!

Thanks CF re his background. One thing jumped at me was that he ensured the smooth transtition from Drachma to Euros.

Mediabite also took a look at Papademos -

http://mediabite.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/introducing-greeces-new-pm-lucas-papademos/

[disability student]

[quote=disability student;200258][quote=C. Flower;200255]

Mediabite also took a look at Papademos -

http://mediabite.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/introducing-greeces-new-pm-lucas-papademos/

Thanks as it's getting more dodgy now. What's the hell is going on in Greece?

Goldman Sachs or IMF/ECB puppet?:eek::eek:

More likely installed at the request of ECB/IMF.

[C. Flower]

[quote=C. Flower;200260][quote=disability student;200258]

Thanks as it's getting more dodgy now. What's the hell is going on in Greece?

Goldman Sachs or IMF/ECB puppet?:eek::eek:

More likely installed at the request of ECB/IMF.

It seems he is the man they wanted.

Who would the Irish equivalent be ? Honohan ?

Would not be Sutherland, as Sutherland was elected, once upon a time.

[disability student]

[quote=disability student;200262][quote=C. Flower;200260]

It seems he is the man they wanted.

Who would the Irish equivalent be ? Honohan ?

Yeah you spot on that re Honohan as lenny wasn't pleased when Honohan bolted out re radio interview. Strange that Honohan has gone very quiet since then.:rolleyes:

[disability student]

Would not be Sutherland, as Sutherland was elected, once upon a time.


Interesting that ECB/IMF go for the unelected ones such as Honohan or Papademos- an insider.

Btw, IMF have set up an office in Dublin as it seems that they don't trust DOF especially coming from Cardiff eh?

[C. Flower]

Political integrationist from "The European Council of Foreign Relations" blames Ireland's insistence on a Commissioner per country for the Commission being completely politically sidelined in the country. Amusing, as of course, if the Commission had not been so representative, it might not have been sidelined...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/1112/1224307456140.html

[cdgalwegian]

Political integrationist from "The European Council of Foreign Relations" blames Ireland's insistence on a Commissioner per country for the Commission being completely politically sidelined in the country. Amusing, as of course, if the Commission had not been so representative, it might not have been sidelined...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/1112/1224307456140.html

That was in my post #114 Cass- but my question about our constitutional position as bargaining chip down the road is still unanswered (for 3rd time); or was it just a silly question? :confused:

[C. Flower]

That was in my post #114 Cass- but my question about our constitutional position as bargaining chip down the road is still unanswered (for 3rd time); or was it just a silly question? :confused:

Apologies - this was your question.



The question I have a posed a number of times is what can we do "as a small, insignificant, entity on the periphery", with a constitutional requirement for referenda with transfer of political sovereignty? (there is the technical issue of what differentiates economic decisions from political ones).
I think I, like many in Ireland (and Europe) liked the look of the EU brochure, but the neo-liberal agenda has hijacked the coach, taking us to a different destination.
Could our constitution be a line in the sand when such transfer is required, which we could use to enforce more democracy over losing economic pollicy?

The German Courts looked at what was going on, and obliged Merkel to take everything to Parliament for a decision.

Those in power dread taking any decision to the people, as could be seen with Greece, and they found it much preferable to overthrow a democratically elected government than to allow a referendum to proceed.

They are between a rock and a hard place. They know that anything worth doing would require a referendum, but they are desperately trying to avoid having one.

From this point of view, Irish law could be the thing that brings their gallop to a halt - it's open to anyone to take a case.



What is happening in Europe seems to be to have already gone way beyond the requirement for a referendum.

[DCon]

They know that anything worth doing would require a referendum, but they are desperately trying to avoid having one.



Lucinda and FG will no doubt trry their "Lisbon is a self amending treaty" spiel to try and avoid a referendum

[cdgalwegian]

Apologies - this was your question.



The German Courts looked at what was going on, and obliged Merkel to take everything to Parliament for a decision.

Those in power dread taking any decision to the people, as could be seen with Greece, and they found it much preferable to overthrow a democratically elected government than to allow a referendum to proceed.

They are between a rock and a hard place. They know that anything worth doing would require a referendum, but they are desperately trying to avoid having one.

From this point of view, Irish law could be the thing that brings their gallop to a halt - it's open to anyone to take a case.

What is happening in Europe seems to be to have already gone way beyond the requirement for a referendum.

Thanks. But I fail to see what point has been gone too far beyond. My query relates to the economic crisis which might be used to bring in further political integration through the back door. Couldn't we be standing at the back door, with constitution in hand, as a buffer against this, when the time comes for major treaty change, such that we could demand more democracy- before handing over more political sovereignty?

[barrym]

IMO, this discussion is becoming more and more sterile.

We are in, we cannot get out, even if our leaders wanted to. Would any pol hold a referendum with the question "do you want to leave the €/EU?" How could they? they'd have to put forward detailed plans for the alternative. Given the general view that they are an incompetent bunch what way would the voter go? assuming they did manage to put forward a plan, a BIG ask.

Politically the EU has moved away from decisions made by politicians based on a comprehensive analysis of the policy options. Since the passing of Maastricht and the creation of the € political decision making has been sidelined by the capacity to borrow money at rates which bear no relationship to the economic capacity of the borrower to repay, a methodology which allowed pols to buy all sorts of (local) political stuff while keeping the punter happy, a la Bertie.

When I said above 'we' I didn't mean 'we agreed' I meant we were bounced into the mess, we had an election which changed nothing and the government WE voted in accepts that technocrats can tell us what to do, in the absence of political courage.

So, what to do?? Lets stop speculating on whether another technocrat, Honohan, could or would do any different. We have to start putting it up to our pols that they need to provide us with a way out of the mess, not kick the can some more.

How? They need to say to the ECB you have to threaten to stop paying something, to pull in the rope on the spivs. They have to start talking to the IMF and the like about providing money for development. They have to move on to the creation of the real banks, or, better, expand the ones who are already in business, such as the credit cooperative in France and other similar ones.

Enough to be going on with, lets make the EU the place we want, not what the bankers and technocrats say we can have. Can we find enough courageous pols??

[cdgalwegian]

We are in, we cannot get out, even if our leaders wanted to. Would any pol hold a referendum with the question "do you want to leave the €/EU?" How could they? they'd have to put forward detailed plans for the alternative.
I don't think you read the question properly. I didn't ask about leaving the Euro, or the Eu for that matter. The question: Will a major treaty change be coming the down the road to enable further political integration, in the light of the economic crisis? If not fine.
If so, does our constitution put us in a possibly unique situation of holding this process of further integration to ransom- as a bargaining chip, for example:
talking to the IMF and the like about providing money for development.
We already know that we don't have courageous politiicians. But if the above answers prove true, that could be the impetus for a push by the the people to finally get what we need done, through marches etc; to demand help with the bailout. The Germans are playing a long game, even in the economic crisis: can we make a last stand, playing them at their own, where the kicked can finally ends at our feet, at the back door of further integration?

[C. Flower]

Thanks. But I fail to see what point has been gone too far beyond. My query relates to the economic crisis which might be used to bring in further political integration through the back door. Couldn't we be standing at the back door, with constitution in hand, as a buffer against this, when the time comes for major treaty change, such that we could demand more democracy- before handing over more political sovereignty?

Yes - we could. But people tried that in the years running up to the Lisbon Treaty and nothing substantial was done about it.

[cdgalwegian]

Yes - we could. But people tried that in the years running up to the Lisbon Treaty and nothing substantial was done about it.

Ah, that was when the times were good, remember? It's a completely different kettle of fish now, would you not agree? The sticking point I feel is the torpor of the Irish public in relation to mass movement. A psychiatrist I know can't get over how passive we are are a nation. Unless there's medical cards involved.

[DCon]

Angie's take on things


German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it’s time to move toward closer political union in Europe to send a message to bondholders that euro-area leaders are serious about ending the sovereign debt crisis.


“I believe this is important for those who buy government bonds: that we make it clear that we want more Europe step by step, that is that the European Union, and the euro area in particular, grows together,” Merkel said today in an interview with ZDF television. “Otherwise people won’t believe that we can really get a handle on the problems.”


“Merkel wants far more centralized euro fiscal oversight so that something like Greece can never happen again,” Jan Techau, director of the Brussels-based European center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said by phone. That means euro governments will have to cede some sovereignty over budgets, he said. “There seems to be some kind of deal between Merkel and Sarkozy on this.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-13/merkel-says-eu-must-forge-closer-union-to-convince-bondholders.html

[DCon]

Farage, MEP, dissing the Euro

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YcgACl1Sr8&feature=player_embedded

[cdgalwegian]

Of course the direction we are going in is wrong, but what did we do to stop it happening? QUOTE]

My question re political transformation, regards further political transfer of sovereignty., on the back of economic loss of sovereignty (which I am willing to forego, because we are run by incompetents).
Could we hold Europe to ransom (i.e. having a backbone, now we've seen the light) through the constitutional need for a referendum with the transfer of further political sovereignty down the line? Could we enforce more democracy as a bargaining chip, in the inevitable(?) event of a major treaty change?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/1114/1224307524795.html "Major institutional changes in the EU will need to be made in the near future.

Angela Merkel herself wants changes to the treaty. That requires referendums at a time when they are highly unlikely to be able to be passed."

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Could be interesting. The Irish Government won't dare put any kind of referendum on European integration before the Irish electorate because they know there'll be a backlash over the Lisbon capers at least.

The Irish government has a choice- either run a referendum and rig the result to a tiny majority in favour, cross their fingers and hope no-one finds out, or try to railroad something through the Oireachtas to prevent a referendum and nobble the Supreme Court challenge on grounds of constitutionality.

[C. Flower]

Could be interesting. The Irish Government won't dare put any kind of referendum on European integration before the Irish electorate because they know there'll be a backlash over the Lisbon capers at least.

The Irish government has a choice- either run a referendum and rig the result to a tiny majority in favour, cross their fingers and hope no-one finds out, or try to railroad something through the Oireachtas to prevent a referendum and nobble the Supreme Court challenge on grounds of constitutionality.

Not that simple.

If the ECB / EU wanted to create a ferocious economic crisis in Ireland, they could provoke one very easily - threat to withdraw liquidity payments, stop bailout loans... a doddle.

Italy, with a relatively strong economy, was made mince meat of.

A gun will be put to our heads.

[C. Flower]

Merkel to the CDU - EU must become a Political Union.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-13/merkel-says-eu-must-forge-closer-union-to-convince-bondholders.html

Italian bonds, even with Monti and a 60 billion budget "adjustment" are at record levels.

[cdgalwegian]

Not that simple.

If the ECB / EU wanted to create a ferocious economic crisis in Ireland, they could provoke one very easily - threat to withdraw liquidity payments, stop bailout loans... a doddle.

Italy, with a relatively strong economy, was made mince meat of.

A gun will be put to our heads.

Threats to withdraw funding would be based on contractual performances i.e. austerity measures. As we are good EU kids, taking our medicine without kicking and screaming, I don't think Germany would be in a position to be gun-toting; backroom deals would be the name of the game. Could Ireland deliver a 'yes' if our bailout could be soothed? It all depends on the wording, and Germany would be holding the pen. And we have a great track record with referenda getting through.

[DCon]

Threats to withdraw funding would be based on contractual performances i.e. austerity measures. As we are good EU kids, taking our medicine without kicking and screaming, I don't think Germany would be in a position to be gun-toting; backroom deals would be the name of the game. Could Ireland deliver a 'yes' if our bailout could be soothed? It all depends on the wording, and Germany would be holding the pen. And we have a great track record with referenda getting through.

Vote Yes for cash in the ATM's

Vote Yes to preserve your savings

Vote Yes to keep the elite in the style they have become accustomed to

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Not that simple.

If the ECB / EU wanted to create a ferocious economic crisis in Ireland, they could provoke one very easily - threat to withdraw liquidity payments, stop bailout loans... a doddle.

Italy, with a relatively strong economy, was made mince meat of.

A gun will be put to our heads.

That already happened with Lisbon II. It sometimes strikes me that a lot of people in Ireland want fundemental reform but they don't want change or to be disturbed in any way.

That is a paradox. If Irish people are awaiting the perfect moment to have perfect reform which won't in any way affect them at all in their daily lives they might as well put the collar back around their neck now.

Ireland can't even extract concessions out of the IMF/ECB when it has the Eurozone in the palm of its hand. How do we get reform from a corrupt political system?

The system in Ireland is so corrupt it needs to be entirely dismantled. Might not be the worst thing in the world to have to consider basic needs and basic society for a change off the back of a crisis.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Threats to withdraw funding would be based on contractual performances i.e. austerity measures. As we are good EU kids, taking our medicine without kicking and screaming, I don't think Germany would be in a position to be gun-toting; backroom deals would be the name of the game. Could Ireland deliver a 'yes' if our bailout could be soothed? It all depends on the wording, and Germany would be holding the pen. And we have a great track record with referenda getting through.

Suppose we play 'hardball' which would be a new departure. We extract major concessions from the Germans, pass their anschluss legislation and then Germany reneges on the deal.

What are we going to do then? Launch empty Guinness kegs in a pre-emptive strike against major German population centres?

[cdgalwegian]

Suppose we play 'hardball' which would be a new departure. We extract major concessions from the Germans, pass their anschluss legislation and then Germany reneges on the deal.

What are we going to do then? Launch empty Guinness kegs in a pre-emptive strike against major German population centres?

:D A New Departure- sounds like another utopian manifesto.
Love the visuals.
Germany reneging on the deal would certainly be a factor in the equation; if Ireland could hold the cards in a referendum (and a deal done behind the scenes beforehand), I would bet my last depreciating Euro that a yes would come in if our bailout was sorted out for us by Germany, even knowing reneging on the deal was a possibility. I think the 'new departure' point is the biggest stumbling block with this. People on the streets demanding handing over more sovereignty? The latter part I can see, not the former.

[DCon]

Do Goldman have a Spaniard on their books? Spain might be needing a new PM soon


Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds are both over 6% threshold now; contagion is indeed spreading. Look for new Spanish government soon.


German-Spanish 10-year bond spread hits -429.07-bps, Euro-zone era record.

http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

[cdgalwegian]

Vote Yes for cash in the ATM's

Vote Yes to preserve your savings

Vote Yes to keep the elite in the style they have become accustomed to

Don't mistake someone's prediction, for what they themselves would want. If indeed Ireland did end up with a referendum in it's lap, the first two would probably guarantee it passing, even though more economic and political soveriegnty would be sold, literally. The third includes the elite as well the plebs. But us plebs will not cut our noses to spite our faces. The real question is: will there be a fudge in the first place, so that a refererendum could be bypassed- could the citizens be tricked out of our constituitional right to sell our sovereignty to the highest bidder (well, Germany anyway)? (please read between the lines- I'm not advocating, just probing)

[Dr. FIVE]

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2011/11/14/berlins-eu-integrationist-hype-is-anyone-going-to-challenge-this-drivel/

[C. Flower]

:D A New Departure- sounds like another utopian manifesto.
Love the visuals.
Germany reneging on the deal would certainly be a factor in the equation; if Ireland could hold the cards in a referendum (and a deal done behind the scenes beforehand), I would bet my last depreciating Euro that a yes would come in if our bailout was sorted out for us by Germany, even knowing reneging on the deal was a possibility. I think the 'new departure' point is the biggest stumbling block with this. People on the streets demanding handing over more sovereignty? The latter part I can see, not the former.

Democratic rights are strange beasts. We have just had two governments installed from above in Europe with the sole remit of saving capitalism (and capital) at all costs. The people, sensing the seriousness of the situation, have been outraged by it more than it would appear from TV news coverage, but have held their fire, on the basis that these bankers will succeed where the politicians failed.

They will not of course.

And at the same time, while democracy has been *temporarily* ceded at national level (and we should remember how many people have died for it, either in gaining it initially in wars and revolutions in the eighteenth and nineteenth century, or fighting against fascism, or the Greek junta) the requirement for referenda at EU level has consequently become much harder to deny.

[C. Flower]

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2011/11/14/berlins-eu-integrationist-hype-is-anyone-going-to-challenge-this-drivel/

I don't agree with his stereotyping Europe as a holiday destination for middle class Brits (apart from Germany of course). Italy is a highly industrialised country for example.

[Dr. FIVE]

Getting confirmation now there will be no need for any technocrats here.
Assurances have been been given, the Taoiseach is completely loyal to the banks. Nothing to worry about.

[C. Flower]

Getting confirmation now there will be no need for any technocrats here.
Assurances have been been given, the Taoiseach is completely loyal to the banks. Nothing to worry about.

I was reading today that the Government is relying very heavily on "advisers" for Finance policy - Cowen and Lenihan were DIY guys.

[DCon]

"More Europe" is needed as the solution says Angela. Nigel Farrage, surprisingly, takes the opposite stance

Covered in the below news story:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkTslLaCWUY&feature=player_embedded#at=255

[Ah Well]

One would have to smile at all of this and Treaty changes. If Referendums will have to occur in this jurisdiction (and that's an if) wait for the Franco-Germanic posturing to begin, coupled with friendly visits. And wait for the bullying. Remember to vote yes and vote often, we're safer in Europe folks :rolleyes:

[TotalMayhem]

If Referendums will have to occur in this jurisdiction (and that's an if) wait for the Franco-Germanic posturing to begin, coupled with friendly visits. And wait for the bullying. Remember to vote yes and vote often, we're safer in Europe folks :rolleyes:

Remember that Greek fella who suggested a referendum recently? He was replaced in no time by some NationalUnityCentralBanker dude. :D

[DCon]

Is that a difference of opinion I smell? If I were a betting man, I'd bet Merkel's opinion has more chance of becoming reality


Taoiseach Enda Kenny has expressed grave reservations that Germany’s demand for European Union treaty change will help resolve the euro zone crisis.

After talks in Berlin, Mr Kenny said he understood chancellor Angela Merkel’s call for tighter EU oversight of euro zone budgets to prevent another crisis - but not if it slowed progress or inhibited member states’ own particular budgetary strategy.

“We need to deal with the crisis with the tools we have now,” he said. “I don’t want to get into a position where you have major a major competency change that would open the door to many countries wanting treaty change from their own point of view. That would be a long situation.”

Standing beside an increasingly testy German leader, Mr Kenny said that, in Ireland’s view, EU members could best regain market confidence by exhausting first the “feasibilities in existing schemes”.

By contrast, Dr Merkel said Berlin was seeking “very limited but clear treaty change” to allow “more ability to intervene” in national budgetary policy.


The chilly press conference was in stark contrast to the warm welcome for the Taoiseach, with full military honours at the Chancellery. After a working lunch, the temperature dropped visibly between the two leaders.

Irish delegation officials conceded Dublin was playing “hardball” after sensing no readiness by Berlin to support the principle of greater flexibility in Ireland’s EU-IMF programme.

“As we make progress as a small country in bailout position it is important and has been recognised that countries' like us need demonstrations of support,” said Mr Kenny.

Apart from praise from Dr Merkel for Ireland’s “admirable” reform progress, she signalled movement on programme terms.

Mr Kenny insisted that “three forensic assessments” by the troika had confirmed that “Ireland has always supported fiscal responsibility and discipline”.

In a clear dig at his host, Mr Kenny added: “Ireland has always complied with the conditions of (euro zone) membership, we’ve never broken the stability pact rules. If it wasn’t for the prerequisite to recapitalise banks we would have a lower than average debt to GDP ratio.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1116/breaking3.html

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Just mention that you want the 'Irish' bank debt booked in Ireland and the 'German' bank debt booked via the IFSC audited Kenny to see which is really Irish. Angela would wet herself with fright and you could walk away with a major concession....

[TotalMayhem]

Mr Kenny added: “Ireland has always complied with the conditions of (euro zone) membership, we’ve never broken the stability pact rules. If it wasn’t for the prerequisite to recapitalise banks we would have a lower than average debt to GDP ratio.”

And if my aunt had balls...

[Apjp]

Just mention that you want the 'Irish' bank debt booked in Ireland and the 'German' bank debt booked via the IFSC audited Kenny to see which is really Irish. Angela would wet herself with fright and you could walk away with a major concession....

Hopefully this is the first sign of balls. I highly doubt it though. It really would be so simple if the average joe was Taoiseach. Hed have the brains to press such issues and not be content with petty digs disguised as hardball which is just code for dickwagging.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Enda Kenny has a shot at a decent legacy. He has tentatively stretched out well beyond the usual obsequiousness shown by Irish politicians to anything that looks like a powerful figure abroad with his strong words on the cannibal church's degeneracy in Ireland.

If he gets Ireland a better deal such as a similar haircut on private bank debts (which I think should be either 100% or converted to a loan to those banks with the exchequer to be repaid plus interest if any remains) then he'll have achieved something nationally that no other Irish leader will have achieved.

Irish foreign policy is a history of negotiating in the end to do what we were told in the first place.

The ingredients are there to point out to the Germans that they owe $2trillion dollars 'off the books' and shouldn't be lecturing anyone on probity. If they want Ireland to support the European project any further without defaulting then we should present the shopping list. If they ignore it then default.

Might as well get the pain over quickly rather than have a slow death of a hundred thousand cuts over 10 or 20 years.

If the Irish economy was a dog at the moment you'd put it down.

[cdgalwegian]

The ingredients are there to point out to the Germans that they owe $2trillion dollars 'off the books' and shouldn't be lecturing anyone on probity. If they want Ireland to support the European project any further without defaulting then we should present the shopping list. If they ignore it then default.


Ireland doesn't like difficult choices; traditionally it's just been easier to pray for direction, and whatever happens, it was meant to be.
Major changes to the Lisbon Treaty are on the way, and it seems we will have a chance to reject it or not, depending on negotiations. With the huge amount of long-term debt we will be shouldering vs much shorter but grievious pain, I think the public will sway for an easier life over further erosion of democracy.
With such a docile society, does it merit discussion? After all, what's anyone actually gonna do? Sniping is one thing, but where's the beef?

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Arrest of the previous government Ministers and those who served as Secretaries General and Deputies of ministries and interning them for acts of terrorism against the state under emergency powers would be a good start.

The arrest and internment of all bank board members who were in charge when the state had to guarantee the banks under the same powers.

Schedule the court cases for about twenty years time so they die behind wire in the Curragh. That would suit me for starters.

I'm only suggesting internment because I'm not allowed to suggest having them shot although that would be my personal preference.

Ireland as a country is absolutely ripe for a serious purge at the top just to show the risks of damaging the country to the state where sovereignty is endangered.

[cdgalwegian]

Arrest of the previous government Ministers and those who served as Secretaries General and Deputies of ministries and interning them for acts of terrorism against the state under emergency powers would be a good start.

The arrest and internment of all bank board members who were in charge when the state had to guarantee the banks under the same powers.

Schedule the court cases for about twenty years time so they die behind wire in the Curragh. That would suit me for starters.

I'm only suggesting internment because I'm not allowed to suggest having them shot although that would be my personal preference.

Ireland as a country is absolutely ripe for a serious purge at the top just to show the risks of damaging the country to the state where sovereignty is endangered.
Any practical solutions?

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Yes. All involving short walks to pockmarked walls. I say this because a marker would need to be laid down to show what the risks were in gambling with the country's sovereignty. Death by execution is the only correct sentence for people who risk the security of the nation for personal profit.

You can be shot as a looter by the army in times of war without any questions if you are caught looting. I say there are about 300 people and about 30 families, the former who should be purged and the latter driven out of Ireland for good.

And I'd bet good money that if you sat 100 Irish people down with a pencil and paper in random locations around Ireland the lists would correspond to each other by at least 80% without conferral.

That is my practical answer. It is the most practical answer you'll get. All the rest will involve letting people who endangered the country walk around without consequence.

[cdgalwegian]

Yes. All involving short walks to pockmarked walls. I say this because a marker would need to be laid down to show what the risks were in gambling with the country's sovereignty. Death by execution is the only correct sentence for people who risk the security of the nation for personal profit.

You can be shot as a looter by the army in times of war without any questions if you are caught looting. I say there are about 300 people and about 30 families, the former who should be purged and the latter driven out of Ireland for good.

And I'd bet good money that if you sat 100 Irish people down with a pencil and paper in random locations around Ireland the lists would correspond to each other by at least 80% without conferral.

That is my practical answer. It is the most practical answer you'll get. All the rest will involve letting people who endangered the country walk around without consequence.

Read my tagline. Idealism is one thing, the horrors of dogma another. Such principled dogma always comes to suffering- the Reign of Terror, Stalinism. It is an immature and dangerous response of cutting your nose to spite your face. We should fight the increasing loss of democracy in a rational way, and stirring protests from this; not atavistic destructiveness. The utopian idealism of a phoenix-rising democracy in the ashes of destruction is infantile, as history shows. Infantile, and full of horror.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

My contention is that the greatest mistake made in the short history of the 'Republic' is that a healthy fear of the people was never instilled in the political and administrative tiers of Irish society.

I know that this appears cynical but not half as cynical as the utter disrespect for the citizen shown by the political class in Ireland who sold their arses to any buyer, lied their way through elections and turned around and said 'we can do what we want now because ye gave us a mandate'.

No government ever gets a mandate to transfer sovereignty over the heads of the citizens. It was a big mistake to allow the notion to form in the heads of the gombeenocracy that they could steal a lot of public money and destroy Irish sovereignty itself.

I have no doubt in my mind that if Connolly were alive today he'd be for machine-gunnings and enforced exile of a corrupt gombeenocracy and I would be happy with that- let the historians crib all they like about purges and the sociologists recite the incorrect chant that violence solves nothing- both sets would be wrong.

The gombeenocracy have no hesitation in operating a purge of Irish society whenever it suits them to protect their own position- they don't hesitate when it comes to closing down hospitals and cutting services to the most vulnerable.

I've no pity for them and would happily support a very direct purge. I'm under no ilusions about the gombeenocracy and their extreme loyalty to nothing but their own featherbedding.

[cdgalwegian]

My contention is that the greatest mistake made in the short history of the 'Republic' is that a healthy fear of the people was never instilled in the political and administrative tiers of Irish society.


I don't think you see the contradiction of your stance: a docile society on the one hand, and arguing for a government that should have 'a healthy fear of the people' on the other.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

All politicians should have a healthy fear of the electorate. The Romans knew this from the time of the first Republic when they had a system of three Tribunes. One was to represent the equestrian class, one to represent the patricians I think and one to represent the plebians (every other citizen).

The people's Tribune had a veto over legislation introduced to the Senate. The usual form if a people's Tribune was found to have acted against the interests of the people via bribery was to tear them apart in the street.

From wiki

'Tribune was a title shared by elected officials in the Roman Republic. Tribunes had the power to convene the Plebeian Council and to act as its president, which also gave them the right to propose legislation before it. They were sacrosanct, in the sense that any assault on their person was prohibited. They had the power to veto actions taken by magistrates, and specifically to intervene legally on behalf of plebeians. The tribune could also summon the Senate and lay proposals before it. The tribune's power, however, was only in effect while he was within Rome. His ability to veto did not affect regional governors.'

We are now so sophisticated that we don't have any power over any elected officials between elections.

I would suggest Rome had a much better Republic in terms of demos than Ireland has two thousand years later.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

The only comparison between Rome then and Ireland now in terms of democracy and a Republic is that they were at least open about owning slaves.

We don't have an aristocratic class (well with the exception of some laggards from the bad old days on the boards of heritage organisations) nor do we have an equestrian class- we have a rentier or merchant class which has sold the entire Republic to a foreign power as slaves- and their children.

Rome would not have done that.

[cdgalwegian]

The only comparison between Rome then and Ireland now in terms of democracy and a Republic is that they were at least open about owning slaves.

We don't have an aristocratic class (well with the exception of some laggards from the bad old days on the boards of heritage organisations) nor do we have an equestrian class- we have a rentier or merchant class which has sold the entire Republic to a foreign power as slaves- and their children.

Rome would not have done that.

This I agree with. You're back on track with the thread, having made pitstop at rabid blood-thirsty nationalism.
There's nothing wrong with cynicism. It's what you do with that counts. But if all there is is cynicism, nothing will change.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Cynicism would be a necessary requirement for a purge. The hope stuff comes with a proper constitution fit for a Republic and outlining the duties of the state toward the citizen and the citizen toward the state.

I'm not sure the chances are good for a Republic ever unless politicians are actually a bit afraid of the people.

Where they are nonchalantly lying and sticking two fingers up at the electorate I'd have no hesitation in saying that requires a serious purge. Fianna Fail should have been deposed when they refused to hold by-elections.

And they should have been destroyed over the bank guarantee because that was the treasonous document where merchants stole the national income to cover up for their corruption.

[cdgalwegian]

I'm not sure the chances are good for a Republic ever unless politicians are actually a bit afraid of the people.

Where they are nonchalantly lying and sticking two fingers up at the electorate I'd have no hesitation in saying that requires a serious purge. Fianna Fail should have been deposed when they refused to hold by-elections.

And they should have been destroyed over the bank guarantee because that was the treasonous document where merchants stole the national income to cover up for their corruption.

There are a lot of 'should's here where there is a catch-22 within Irish politics in this regard. How do we move the constitition on to a situation where "politicians are actually a bit afraid of the people", when inaction is the problem. Hence the "catch-22 of Irish politics" thread as a step towards a meaningful role in "The Ongoing Political Transformation of Europe". (see how I keep linking in to the relevent thread?;))

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Bugger the constitution. That document was written and approved by one set of oppressors of the Irish people and introduced by the gombeen rentcollecters for the other.

That document is a travesty. A constitution is supposed to be a written agreement in a Republic describing the relationship between the citizen and the state and in reality that document currently referred to as a 'constitution' is nothing more than a warrant card for the gombeens.

Unsurprisingly as it was written by lawyers for the gombeenocracy. You can see that by the way property rights are foremost and citizen's rights to assemble and to have free speech are ringed about by 'permission' statements under the control of the government.

[cdgalwegian]

Bugger the constitution. That document was written and approved by one set of oppressors of the Irish people and introduced by the gombeen rentcollecters for the other.

That document is a travesty. A constitution is supposed to be a written agreement in a Republic describing the relationship between the citizen and the state and in reality that document currently referred to as a 'constitution' is nothing more than a warrant card for the gombeens.

Unsurprisingly as it was written by lawyers for the gombeenocracy. You can see that by the way property rights are foremost and citizen's rights to assemble and to have free speech are ringed about by 'permission' statements under the control of the government.
I'm trying to keep on thread here.
This is all very well, but you seem to have only Hobson's choice- do nothing or armed insurrection as the only real democratic option. A new constitution, while we are in the current mess, is the best solution. The thread for that is elsewhere (catch-22 of Irish politics maybe?).

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Thats just the problem- working back towards the thread subject line the constitution did not protect the sovereignty of the nation from being traded away by a temporary government. No one government should have it within its power to trade sovereignty. There are conventions within government that no Taoiseach should commit a following Taoiseach fundamentally to policies he or she may not agree with.

Part of the 'ongoing political transformation of Europe' is the fact that technocrats are in reality running three European states now including Ireland. Ireland has the illusion that Fine Gael and Labour are in charge but that is in reality only an illusion with perhaps some authority on social policy but none on economic or fiscal policy.

People in Ireland, Greece, Italy did not elect those who currently run their economies.

[barrym]

This stuff about the constitution is interesting in the context of this thread. We are (required?) to have referendums to agree changes. Fine, in principle, debateable in practise. Lisbon was just the latest fiasco. However, considering the actual text of the Lisbon doc we ok'd then it shows the mess a written rule book gets into.

Merkel's latest rumblings have NO chance of being put in place until they sort the bond crisis. There simply isn't room to allow the market to wet its trousers again while we all go through a rewrite of Lisbon or whatever rule book we are using just now.

In principle she is right, we need to tighten the club rules, we will have to wait until we get a German government which is less worried about inflation and the like to achieve it. The intermediary step will have to be a political agreement to allow the ECB to support the €. Merkels' guff with Inda is for local political consumption, she doesn't give a flying f if he is supposedly playing hardball (btw, anything reported as coming from handlers, i.e. message massagers, has to be suspicious), she says nothing aimed at the Irish audience.

As to the subject of the thread, we need to stay with whatever happens, otherwise the € tap will be closed.

[C. Flower]

This stuff about the constitution is interesting in the context of this thread. We are (required?) to have referendums to agree changes. Fine, in principle, debateable in practise. Lisbon was just the latest fiasco. However, considering the actual text of the Lisbon doc we ok'd then it shows the mess a written rule book gets into.

Merkel's latest rumblings have NO chance of being put in place until they sort the bond crisis. There simply isn't room to allow the market to wet its trousers again while we all go through a rewrite of Lisbon or whatever rule book we are using just now.

In principle she is right, we need to tighten the club rules, we will have to wait until we get a German government which is less worried about inflation and the like to achieve it. The intermediary step will have to be a political agreement to allow the ECB to support the €. Merkels' guff with Inda is for local political consumption, she doesn't give a flying f if he is supposedly playing hardball (btw, anything reported as coming from handlers, i.e. message massagers, has to be suspicious), she says nothing aimed at the Irish audience.

As to the subject of the thread, we need to stay with whatever happens, otherwise the € tap will be closed.

Do you see any way that the Euro can be saved ? Greece has been melted down for scrap for it, Ireland is undergoing the same. French, Spanish and Italian debt is getting more and more costly and will erode their productive economies.

I can't for the life of me see how an effective federation was ever meant to work without a redistributive budget.

And, on top of that internal European tension, there is the fact that European working and middle classes have lost their function and power (which came out of being a needed workforce, and out of their once-effective organisation in trade unions) and are at one level just not needed any more, for global capitalism to work. Not needed, but that in itself is enormously destabilising and deflationary.

[DCon]

Do you see any way that the Euro can be saved ? Greece has been melted down for scrap for it, Ireland is undergoing the same. French, Spanish and Italian debt is getting more and more costly and will erode their productive economies.

I can't for the life of me see how an effective federation was ever meant to work without a redistributive budget.

And, on top of that internal European tension, there is the fact that European working and middle classes have lost their function and power (which came out of being a needed workforce, and out of their once-effective organisation in trade unions) and are at one level just not needed any more, for global capitalism to work. Not needed, but that in itself is enormously destabilising and deflationary.

Throw Italian protests into the mix too!


Well that was quick: Italy is about to be acquainted with the old Asian saying that a "known devil is better then unknown angel", especially when the angel is a Prime and Finance minister (two for the austere price of one) working purely on the behalf of offshore banker interests. As Reuters and Corriere report, thousands of Italians took to the streets in several cities on Thursday to protest against what they called a "bankers' government" led by economist Mario Monti, and there were clashes with police.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/cor_04_672-458_resize.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/technocratic-revulsion-begins-photos-and-video-thousands-italians-protest-montis-banker-governm

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

This stuff about the constitution is interesting in the context of this thread. We are (required?) to have referendums to agree changes. Fine, in principle, debateable in practise. Lisbon was just the latest fiasco. However, considering the actual text of the Lisbon doc we ok'd then it shows the mess a written rule book gets into.

Merkel's latest rumblings have NO chance of being put in place until they sort the bond crisis. There simply isn't room to allow the market to wet its trousers again while we all go through a rewrite of Lisbon or whatever rule book we are using just now.

In principle she is right, we need to tighten the club rules, we will have to wait until we get a German government which is less worried about inflation and the like to achieve it. The intermediary step will have to be a political agreement to allow the ECB to support the €. Merkels' guff with Inda is for local political consumption, she doesn't give a flying f if he is supposedly playing hardball (btw, anything reported as coming from handlers, i.e. message massagers, has to be suspicious), she says nothing aimed at the Irish audience.

As to the subject of the thread, we need to stay with whatever happens, otherwise the € tap will be closed.

Only trouble is that the German government is as fraudulent as Fianna Fail. They are sitting on 2trillion euros worth of debt which is kept off the German balance sheet while they lecture others on probity.

[DCon]

Only trouble is that the German government is as fraudulent as Fianna Fail. They are sitting on 2trillion euros worth of debt which is kept off the German balance sheet while they lecture others on probity.


pointed out by Juncker yesterday


* EU's Juncker says that German debt level is a cause for concern according to a German newspaper - RTRS
* EU's Juncker says Germany has higher debts than Spain but 'no-one wants to know about that' - RTRS


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/has-juncker-gone-insane-eurogroup-head-says-german-debt-levels-cause-concern

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Dear me- I have become affiliated to a Juncker ... Merkel is a charlatan worse than Sir Dead Lenihan.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

I notice that Tyler Durden screamed when Juncker said that ... and quickly put up a chart showing the official levels of bank debt, government debt for a sample of countries showing Germany is really, really, alright.

Wonder if those debt levels are official figures or whether they include the offshored derivative trades?

I've a suspicion that some of the 'Irish' bank debt is in reality German bank debt booked through an Irish subsidiary in the IFSC. I'd love to see an audit of that.

[DCon]

Dear me- I have become affiliated to a Juncker ... Merkel is a charlatan worse than Sir Dead Lenihan.

He seems to be an OK guy. The Luxembourgers love him.



Juncker was born in Redange and spent most of his childhood in Belvaux. His father had fought in World War II after being forcibly recruited into the Wehrmacht, and was a steelworker and a member of the Confederation of Christian Trade Unions. Juncker studied at Clairefontaine in Belgium before returning to Luxembourg to attain his baccalaureate in the Lycée Michel Rodange. Around that time, in 1974, he joined the Christian Social People's Party. Juncker went on to study law at the University of Strasbourg, attaining a Master of Law degree in 1979. Although he was sworn into the Luxembourg Bar Council in 1980, he never practised as a lawyer.



Shortly before the 1989 election, Juncker was seriously injured in a road traffic accident, spending two weeks in a coma. He nonetheless recovered in time to be returned to the Chamber of Deputies once more, picking up the Finance portfolio along with his Ministry of Labour post. The Ministry of Finance post is traditionally seen as a rite of passage to the premiership of the country, and his eventual promotion to Prime Minister seemed at this time inevitable, with political commentators concluding that Santer was grooming Juncker as his heir. Juncker at this time accepted the position of Governor of the World Bank.


Juncker assumed the presidency of the Eurogroup on 1 January 2005. Juncker is currently the longest-serving head of government of any European Union state. It is often suggested in the press that he, like his predecessor Santer, will eventually give up his position as Prime Minister to assume the presidency of the European Commission, but Juncker continues to deny he has any plans to resign


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Claude_Juncker

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Prime Minister of a tax haven spills the beans on German debt ... mind you the Swiss and the Luxembourg financial juntas have an ongoing barney with Germany over Germany's pointed remarks about tax havens I think and jurisdictions with constitutional secrecy over nominee bank accounts like Austria.

Bit of payback for statements by German pols over the last few years criticising governance standards in havens perhaps?

[C. Flower]

Prime Minister of a tax haven spills the beans on German debt ... mind you the Swiss and the Luxembourg financial juntas have an ongoing barney with Germany over Germany's pointed remarks about tax havens I think and jurisdictions with constitutional secrecy over nominee bank accounts like Austria.

Bit of payback for statements by German pols over the last few years criticising governance standards in havens perhaps?

And how do you see this being resolved politically? A referendum and a federal Europe?

Or disintegration ?

[DCon]

Prime Minister of a tax haven spills the beans on German debt ... mind you the Swiss and the Luxembourg financial juntas have an ongoing barney with Germany over Germany's pointed remarks about tax havens I think and jurisdictions with constitutional secrecy over nominee bank accounts like Austria.

Bit of payback for statements by German pols over the last few years criticising governance standards in havens perhaps?

Germany also forced his old man to fight in WW2, while occupying Luxembourg.

Good enough reason to hold a grudge

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

I think the Germans and Americans will lean on Juncker through World Bank contacts to retract or 'clarify' his comments.

The one thing that prevents me from saying 'disintegration' is the single solitary but highly relevant fact that the wealthy 1% have an enormous financial stake in Europe becoming a Federation and expanding to encompass various pirate states run by criminals with lots of cash to the east.

The business connections are already made so the political connection has to be stitched together.

Britain is in a weird position now- it has been politically an American aircraft carrier off the coast of Europe since world war two as De Gaulle memorably described it and its sole job has been to trade with European partners but stay on the inside and report back as a listening station to Washington- which everyone in Brussels knows.

As long as Europe was a trading bloc Britain could comfortably walk that tightrope but now Britain might have to face jumping down on one side or another and its the old Conservative Party nightmare raised from the political crypt- Europe- in or out?

The Brits have gone off like a firecracker at the notion of a transaction tax and there are really sharp words between the City of London (aka Downing Street) and the German/French axis.

Pivotal times approaching ... Britain caught between carrying out Wall Street policy of refusing a transaction tax and Germany unusually tetchy with Downing Street and telling the Brits to shussup and get on ze truck.

Curiously I have a feeling that that fault line is the most dangerous for the European Project of federalisation- which would be ironic when you consider the origins of the EU in a series of trade pacts designed to draw a line under war in Europe between the same nations.

70% chance on a Tir Na N'og fudge where all debt in the end gets stretched out over a longer time period and Germany/France get the European project credited with saving the continent.

40% chance that 'events, dear boy, events' as Eden observed of unseen political boobytraps, spin the plans out of control. I'm aware that adds up to 110% but then we live in a strange surreal derivative world where 110% has been entirely possible for some time now.

[C. Flower]

Just heard the expression "the politicisation of capital" on "Closing Bell."

Some people will make a fortune out of buying up cheap European stocks that have real value, but are depressed by the crisis.

[PaddyJoe]

The Finnish European Affairs minister, Alex Stubb is pushing the concept of a 'core' EU today:

The eurozone’s six triple A rated countries should have greater say in economic affairs within the single currency and act as its inner “core”, Finland’s Europe minister will on Thursday argue, the latest sign that a small subset of countries are attempting to band together to set new rules for the euro.
Alex Stubb said in an interview he did not believe new institutions should be created to give the triple A countries more power. But he said European Union rules that allowed “enhanced co-operation” between member states might be needed so they could co-ordinate economic policies.

“I don’t see some countries dropping out, but I see countries inside losing influence,” Mr Stubb said ahead of an address today.
“A country that is not triple A rated is not going to be the best one to give you advice on your public finances . . . I see the centrifugal force of a core Europe.”
Mr Stubb’s remarks come at a time that other triple A countries have begun pushing a similar line, particularly France, where President Nicolas Sarkozy has proposed joint Franco-German tax rules that would put pressure on other eurozone members to match their efforts.
Behind closed doors, senior officials have had more detailed discussions about plans for creating a “core euro” as part of consultations with Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president who is preparing proposals for overhauling eurozone governance.
Several EU officials denied “core euro” proposals were part of a plan to shed euro members such as Greece. Instead, officials said Mr Van Rompuy was considering proposals allowing triple A countries to integrate their economic policymaking before such efforts are rolled out to all 17 euro members. Mr Van Rompuy is said to dislike the “core euro” concept, and some diplomats fear the attempt could further Balkanise the EU.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7459f7f2-1072-11e1-8298-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dxzVrPlQ

[morticia]

Right, so we would have been qualified to give triple A rated advice to our Euro peers on how to run an economy back in 2007.....but not today???

Great idea, Mr Stubbs.....NOT. Concept; learn from mistakes, preferably those of others. So, perhaps those in the Maison du Chien should be allowed more airtime to warn others off their previous paths... oh yeah, that would be common sense, das ist verboten, entschuldigung. My mistake.

I need another Valium sandwich.....

[PaddyJoe]

The Telegraph tonight mentions a 'leaked memo' from Germany's Foreign Office which chimes with the statements by Finland's Alex Stubb quoted above:

The six-page memo, by the German foreign office, argues that Europe’s economic powerhouses should be able to intervene in how beleaguered eurozone countries are run.
The confidential blueprint sets out Germany’s plan to tackle the eurozone debt crisis by creating a “stability union” that will be “immediately followed by moves “on the way towards a political union”.
It will prompt fears that Germany’s euro crisis plans could result in a European super-state with spending and tax plans set in Brussels

The leaked document, The Future of the EU: Required Integration Policy Improvements for the Creation of a Stability Union, comes as David Cameron meets Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, in Berlin today to talk about treaty changes and the eurozone crisis.
The German plan begins with a proposal to create “automatic sanctions” that could be imposed on euro members spending beyond targets set by the European Commission. Germany is demanding that if euro rules are “consistently violated”, it should be able to demand action from the European Court of Justice.
Germany, Finland, Austria and the Netherlands would be able to ask EU courts to impose sanctions, from fines to the loss of budgetary sovereignty, to protect the euro.
The memo states the EMF would be given “real intervention rights” in the budgets of euro members who have received EU-IMF bailouts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8898213/German-memo-shows-secret-slide-towards-a-super-state.html

[DCon]

I find this interesting. Little Nic, speaking in the EU Parliament after the Irish No to Lisbon. Saying that he "profoundly believes" that referenda should not happen as parliament should decide on "institutional matters" and teh running of the EU


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2zDliwtoMg&feature=player_embedded#at=201

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

I was told at a dinner in Brussels by a German rapporteur that the feeling around the institutions in Brussels was that referendums should not be allowed as these issues were, and I quote verbatim, "too complicated for the average voter".

Thats the moment (before Lisbon I) when I became an opponent of further integration towards a federal Europe.

Once the watercarriers in any bureaucracy get above themselves and start dismissing democracy it is time to reach for the rifle.

[C. Flower]

The Telegraph tonight mentions a 'leaked memo' from Germany's Foreign Office which chimes with the statements by Finland's Alex Stubb quoted above:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8898213/German-memo-shows-secret-slide-towards-a-super-state.html

I find it interesting, in the "Irish Budget Leak" business, to see that that a law passed in the Bundestag requiring that the German Parliament should approve in advance the arrangements for payment of EFSF loans, is accepted as taking precedence over any procedures or confidentiality requirements agreed between the EU/IMF (Troika) and other nation states.

[DCon]

Luxembourg are advising caution


Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn warned on Thursday against rushing into changing European Union treaties, saying such a move could be very difficult to implement and that euro zone leaders should rather focus on stabilising their currency.

"You have to be very, very careful with big treaty changes. It's not a walk in the park," Asselborn told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio.

He said changes could be tough to agree due to countries' differing agendas. He also recalled the difficulties involved in ratifying the Lisbon Treaty

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/17/eurozone-luxembourg-idUSL5E7MH0U720111117

[morticia]

I find it interesting, in the "Irish Budget Leak" business, to see that that a law passed in the Bundestag requiring that the German Parliament should approve in advance the arrangements for payment of EFSF loans, is accepted as taking precedence over any procedures or confidentiality requirements agreed between the EU/IMF (Troika) and other nation states.

on the other hand, since it now appears that they may be one of the few able to actually pay into the EFSF, perhaps it is less unfair than it seems?

Gulp.

[barrym]

on the other hand, since it now appears that they may be one of the few able to actually pay into the EFSF, perhaps it is less unfair than it seems?

Gulp.

Surprised anybody? I seem to recall Albert Reynolds being obseqious to the Germans after the handout we got, called some kind of "equalization" in the 80s. Supposed to bring us up to speed.....ready to buy.......German stuff?

Apropos Juncker, probably pee'd off that Fritz has bypassed him as headman of the eurogroup. Little country makes good.... maybe we'd feel the same, IF we ever stood up to be counted.

There is political change going on but I don't think we are part of it, but does it matter?

Me, cynical? Maybe......

[C. Flower]

on the other hand, since it now appears that they may be one of the few able to actually pay into the EFSF, perhaps it is less unfair than it seems?

Gulp.

It's not a question of "fair or unfair" I don't think. There is plenty going on that is not fair. It's a question of law and treaties. Should the passing of a Bundestag or Dail law override EU legislation / practice that supposedly applies to the whole of the EU ?

If that was the case, the treaties would be meaningless.

[barrym]

It's not a question of "fair or unfair" I don't think. There is plenty going on that is not fair. It's a question of law and treaties. Should the passing of a Bundestag or Dail law override EU legislation / practice that supposedly applies to the whole of the EU ?

If that was the case, the treaties would be meaningless.

Ah please, treaties are to be interpreted.... not followed. Where does it say Germany cannot pass any laws they like, and make it stick? Sorry CF, we must wake up and smell the weissbeer.

[DCon]

The Wall Street Journal have some details on plans to be released by the Commish this week


Europe's upcoming proposals to fight its debt crisis will include new economic rules for the continent and shared representation for euro-zone nations at the International Monetary Fund, a senior European Commission official said in an interview Saturday.

Viviane Reding, a European Commission vice president, said the new steps to be unveiled Wednesday will show Europe building stronger ties to relieve mounting international doubts about the future of the 17-nation currency bloc.

"All these measures, which would have been unthinkable a year ago, are coming now to set up real economic governance in the euro zone, which was missing," said Ms. Reding, who was in Washington to meet with Obama administration officials ahead of a U.S.-European Union summit later this month.



The European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, plans to release proposals next week to boost oversight of national budgets and improve economic governance. It will also lay out options for a common euro-zone bond that ultimately could be adopted once budget rules are changed.

The commission plans to propose giving euro-zone nations "one voice" within the IMF and other international financial institutions, effectively pooling their individual shares together, Ms. Reding said. "The euro area will be strengthened because it speaks with one voice."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577048673120869542.html?m od=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

[C. Flower]

The Wall Street Journal have some details on plans to be released by the Commish this week


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577048673120869542.html?m od=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

With a reorientation to the IMF, and with increased NATO participation, is this a shift from Berlin to Boston ?

[morticia]

With a reorientation to the IMF, and with increased NATO participation, is this a shift from Berlin to Boston ?

I suspect that if Berlin looks as if it is making a banking problem worse, Washington will be in there with all guns blazing, and to hell with "national sovereignty". Frau Merkel and Co. may well not like a good taste of their own medicine, but if they don't come up with a solution sharpish (like the ECB printing presses, for example), then Barry and Hu may well decide to impose one upon them.

To paraphrase the lads St Lendahand was talking to in the City, standing armies count, and Hu and Barry both have large ones.......bigger than Germany, at any rate.

[fluffybiscuits]

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2011/177267.htm

Firstly I know this is an American govt report but just doing a bit of reading into the future EU accession countries. It looks like that Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia are all in line for accession into the EU and Croatia is currently top candidate with a date of 2013. Montenegro will be following closely behind with its judicial reform but Serbia needs to engage on the issue of Kosovo. The rest still have some work to do according to the report.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15809306

Turkey are still keen on joining also but France are still opposing the entry based on denying the Armenian genocide.

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Croatia ... another criminal oligarchy's playground.

[DCon]

Treaty changes on the way..



Sarkozy: Fance and Germany will soon propose treaty changes to avoid large divergences–Rtrs

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/11/22/sarkozy-fance-and-germany-will-soon-propose-treaty-changes-to-avoid-large-divergences-rtrs/

[morticia]

Treaty changes on the way..


Good luck with that one.... more fiddling while Rome burns goes bust

[C. Flower]

An American's view of the very European coups.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/opinion/sunday/douthat-conspiracies-coups-and-currencies.html?_r=1

[DCon]

Is Noonan hinting at a "positive referendum result for debt writedown" deal?


Mr Noonan hinted that Dublin is asking for some of interested relief on a €31bn EU promissory noted linked to the Anglo Irish fiasco, among other matters.



Mr Noonan said Ireland's public mood has turned very sour.

"We have indicated to Europe's authorities that it will be difficult to get the Irish public to pass a referendum on treaty change," he said.

The EU's new fiscal rules would be legally binding and "justiciable" before the European Court, he said. This raises the likelihood that Ireland's top court would insist on a referendum.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8911146/Ireland-demands-debt-relief-warns-on-EU-treaties.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/expected-ireland-first-demand-debt-relief-greek-bailout-aftermath

[C. Flower]

Is Noonan hinting at a "positive referendum result for debt writedown" deal?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8911146/Ireland-demands-debt-relief-warns-on-EU-treaties.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/expected-ireland-first-demand-debt-relief-greek-bailout-aftermath

Hence Enda's repeated begging that something should be cobbled together that could avoid a referendum.

[TotalMayhem]

Hence Enda's repeated begging that something should be cobbled together that could avoid a referendum.

Preferably something that is to be decided in Berlin... some Taoiseach. :mad:

[DCon]

Merkozynti met today


Sarkozy:- * Treaty propositions to be made in coming days
* Agreed with Merkel and Monti not to make demands on ECB and undelined their confidence in the Central bank
* Will meet again soon in Rome
* proposals to modify treaties will be in place before Dec 9 summit meeting

Monti:- Italy will continue rigorous consolidation of public finances

* Stressed need to speed up implentation of structural reforms
* Italy will balance budget in 2013
* Growth essential to stick to public finance targets

Merkel:- Euro area must take steps towards fiscal union

* Wants a strong stable euro. Must work closer together and trust each other

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/11/24/frances-sarkozy-france-and-germany-determined-to-help-italy-and-do-everything-to-save-euro/

[DCon]

there may be no referendum after all. Not sure how this would work though. As we are not in Schengen, there might be no prior instance


Germany and France want to force through a new "euro stability treaty" by the start of next year, and are considering bypassing the European Commission to accelerate the process, Germany's Bild newspaper reports Saturday, without saying where it got the information.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will present their plans at the next European Union summit on Dec. 8- Dec. 9, Bild reports.

The pair are considering framing the new stability pact as a treaty between national states, similar to the initial Schengen agreement that reduced restrictions on movement within the EU. That would speed up the process and reduce resistance from sceptical member states, the newspaper writes.

Merkel and Sarkozy want to bypass the European Commission if necessary, Bild reports.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/7468/merkel-sarkozy-consider-bypassing-eu-commission-force-new-euro-treaty

[C. Flower]

there may be no referendum after all. Not sure how this would work though. As we are not in Schengen, there might be no prior instance



http://www.efxnews.com/story/7468/merkel-sarkozy-consider-bypassing-eu-commission-force-new-euro-treaty

"Limited" treaty changes (allowable under Lisbon?) being done as seriel agreements by each state, is what I heard RTE report.

It will be up to someone in Ireland to try to get a result in Court on this, is my guess.

[Dr. FIVE]

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/11/28/just-another-goldman-sachs-take-over/print

Just Another Goldman Sachs Take Over says Paul Craig Roberts former editor of the Wall Street Journal and an Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.

Don't know how much of it I agree with him

[cdgalwegian]

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/11/28/just-another-goldman-sachs-take-over/print

Just Another Goldman Sachs Take Over says Paul Craig Roberts former editor of the Wall Street Journal and an Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.

Don't know how much of it I agree with him

Yeah, I knew it was the Illuminati all along (;)).
The financial weapons of mass destruction are what has been clocking up airmiles for Geitner for sure, but the concerted effort required in such volatile times always needs to be balanced by the 'piss-up in a brewery' scenario.

The power of the financial houses notwithstanding, Germany's long game of leverage- austerity mechanisms in exchange for bailouts, seems to have run out of time.
Scenario: Transfer of sovereignty through Treaty change would take an age, but stability bonds still taking too much time, as with a two-speed Euro, so printing- as a last resort- before implosion happens, is inevitable (unless the whistle blows, and they do run out of time).
The 'just-in-time' measures will probably continue with printing- in order to stave off the markets, while fiscal union goes ahead. A more federalised but less democratic EU, with more neo-liberal economics embedded.
Ireland could have had an ace up its sleeve via a referendum regarding this because of the 1987 Supreme Court ruling, whereby any major amendment to an EU treaty entails an amendment to the Irish constitution:
"The basic trigger for
a referendum, according to the Supreme Court, is an
evaluation (by the government or by the courts
following litigation) that a treaty reform alters the
“essential scope and objectives” of the Union. The
Attorney General’s Office is responsible for making
this evaluation and presenting legal advice to the
Government. www.ceps.eu/ceps/download/3852
With our politicians- and with begging cap in hand- any sovereign transfer will be certain not be regarded as 'major'. Well-delayed Supreme Court action will be too late following any fiscal union.
Will Germany allow the printing press to turn on before it's too late?

[C. Flower]

"Wonks Won't Save Europe" (HT the Daily Beast)


It’s not often that you find a Star Trek reference in the typically stodgy Financial Times, but for the Euro-crisis it's made an exception. With Greece and Italy both looking to replace their fallen prime ministers with technocratic economists, an incredulous Robert Shrimsley opines that “it is as if the crew of the Starship Enterprise had concluded that Captain Jean-Luc Picard is no longer the man for the job and that it is time to send for the Borg.” Political charisma may be overrated, but at least skilled politicians know how to make their solutions a reality; not so with the Frankfurt-endorsed wonks looking to take control.

Read it at the Financial Times
November 10, 2011 11:19 AM

[C. Flower]

I think its fascinating what is happening to the EU. Its a clear example of contemporary neofascism.

Democracy, in the guise we know it, is ok as along as it agrees with the interests of money. However now that people/democracy are so visibly diametrically opposed to said interests right now, then the response is just as forceful. A violent put down of people in the interests of power.

The nuanced measures of control like the illusions of representative democracy no longer suffice. Outright aggression and authoritarianism are the only things keeping the show on the road right now.

As Joe Higgins pointed out in the Dáil today, this and particularly social-democrat parties represent the economic equivalent to the 1914 betrayal in the class war.

Who wouldn't also bet on a neofascist interbellum period? For many the trend is frighteningly apparent

http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/talktojazeera/2011/10/2011102813360731764.html

Yes, I think this an historic shift and a very dangerous stage, although not fascist, moving towards it at a pace that isn't maybe widely recognised.

After all, the EU has engineered a government in Greece which has openly fascist members (LAOS).

http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2544

This is a measured assessment of the kind of policy-ruled EU that some people think we are heading for - with a mention that Ireland, because it will have to have a referendum, has bargaining power.

[DCon]

The Guardian are suggesting that the Maastricht Treaty will need to be rewritten


Next Monday, Merkel and Sarkozy will meet in Berlin in a bid to seal a Franco-German deal on far closer co-operation between the single currency's member countries on their tax and spending plans. Next Friday, when Europe's leaders gather in Brussels, they'll try and sell those plans – which will involve rewriting the Maastricht treaty – to their fellow eurozone members.

It won't be the first time the two leaders have claimed to have struck a "grand bargain" to secure the economic future of Europe. But this time, crucially, they seem to have squared their proposals with Draghi, who must agree to ramp up the ECB's rescue mission by buying billions of euros worth of Italian and Spanish bonds, if the entire eurozone is to avoid a post-Lehman style meltdown.

Draghi appears to have agreed that what's on the table gives the ECB enough comfort to act; and that view will be reinforced if, as expected, his fellow technocrat Mario Monti, now installed in Rome, manages to pass a tough new austerity budget next week.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/02/eurozone-countries-grand-bargain-merkel-sarkozy

[C. Flower]

The Guardian are suggesting that the Maastricht Treaty will need to be rewritten



http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/02/eurozone-countries-grand-bargain-merkel-sarkozy

That would surely mean referenda everywhere ?

[DCon]

That would surely mean referenda everywhere ?

Unless they can pretend that "one of the Treaties" allows for changes to Maastricht

With Lucinda this would not be too difficult!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1bv9Zf5ia4

[DCon]

Referendum "likely" says the Toimes


http://cache2-thumb1.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/docserver/getimage.aspx?file=10952011120300000000001001&page=1&scale=10


Referendum to change EU treaty likely as Merkel stands firm


THE GOVERNMENT is facing the prospect of a difficult referendum after German chancellor Angela Merkel declared her determination to push for changes to the EU treaties as part of a deal to save the euro.

As talks intensify ahead of a crucial European summit next Thursday and Friday in Brussels, EU officials say the strength of Dr Merkel’s campaign to amend the treaties means other leaders will not be able to spurn her.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has publicly opposed the need for treaty changes and that remains the Government’s official position in advance of the summit.

However, there is a realisation among senior Ministers in Dublin that Dr Merkel’s commitment to treaty change and the backing she has received from French president Nicolas Sarkozy may have made that process unstoppable.



Under fire from former chancellor Helmut Schmidt for “isolating” Germany in Europe, Dr Merkel said she favoured limited treaty change to allow automatic sanctions “with no ifs or buts” for budgetary rule breaches.

If that was not possible in Brussels, “the second-best solution” was an intergovernmental deal operating outside the framework of EU law.

This puts her at odds with Mr Sarkozy, whose favoured option is for a deal in which governments police each others’ budgets .

Separately, the top European Commission official on the Irish bailout said critics of the decision not to impose losses on senior bank bondholders should recognise the benefit from the interest cut on Ireland’s rescue loans.

http://www.frontpagestoday.co.uk/ireland/newspapers.cfm

[PaddyJoe]

Unless they can pretend that "one of the Treaties" allows for changes to Maastricht

With Lucinda this would not be too difficult!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1bv9Zf5ia4

Nice one. " I thought Irish people died for freedom...I didn't know they died to keep the ATMs open"
Great quote:D

[Ah Well]

Oh goodie

Vote Yes and Vote Often


Or don't vote at all (preferably to voting No)

Vote No? ... doesn't count .... spoilt vote ... too anti-democratic

[Kid Ryder]

I may be coming into this debate a good bit behind the curve, but the idea that 'democracy' at the EU institutional level is being subverted is frankly risible. The EU and its lineal predecessors (the EC, the EEC, and the ECSC) were never 'democratic' in their operation nor were they ever intended to be. The institutions of European integration were designed to be operated by designated elites, appointees who happened to be govt. ministers/heads of govt. or former career politicians appointed to their reward in the 'next world', as it were. The polities of Europe were permitted no more than the weakest and most vicarious say in how things got done at EU level, and that continues to this day.

What has disappeared though is the illusion of 'collegiality': that the various national elites participated 'equally' on some kind of 'level playing field' when it came to making decisions for the EU as a whole. The weighted and qualified majorities mentioned in the various union treaties have been set to nought because the markets and Merkozy have to act before the bondholders see 'Game Over' on their trading screens. And the other big change is that any EU national govt. which is deemed incapable by the big-time owning class of holding the ring locally for finance capital can be summarily removed and replaced by bought-and-paid-for technocrats who'll do what's expected of them. The fact that this was done in Greece and Italy under the traditional rubrics of parliamentarism is IMO merely a matter of optics - it'll become more blatantly obvious as that can gets kicked the last few metres down the road that an insolvent European banking sector and the economic vested interests depending from it have declared bourgeois democracy as we have known it incompatible with their continuing dominion over all persons, matters and things on this continent.

[DCon]

No referendum envisaged by Angie


Changes to the European Union treaty envisaged by Germany wouldn't trigger the need for a referendum, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Friday, ahead of a crucial summit next week that seeks ways out of the debt crisis.

Germany and France want to propose a plan that includes limited changes to the EU treaty that would give European institutions certain powers to intervene in national budgets in order to force nations to abide by euro-zone fiscal stability rules.

However, those treaty changes would only aim to facilitate an automatic budget review to ensure nations were complying with the agreed rules, Merkel said at a press conference after meeting Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann, where she acknowledged investor concern over whether the euro area will stick together.

Merkel said that a collective common budget policy in Europe would require a referendum on a new constitution, but added that this wasn't the case with the proposals she had in mind.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/7659/merkel-changes-eu-treaty-shouldnt-require-referendum

[C. Flower]

No referendum envisaged by Angie



http://www.efxnews.com/story/7659/merkel-changes-eu-treaty-shouldnt-require-referendum

If they are too light to require a referendum the markets will not believe they will work.

The end of the euro so.

[C. Flower]

Sometimes distance lends disenchantment to the view.

From the US, the imposition of finance dictatorships in Greece and Italy is recognised as the counterrevolution that it is.

The Italian "government" met today to push through a carve up budget, a day before the announced day. The demonstrators may stay at home tomorrow.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/opinion/sunday/douthat-conspiracies-coups-and-currencies.html?_r=1


Within days, thanks to some unusual constitutional maneuvering, Obama resigned the presidency and Michael Bloomberg was invited to take the oath of office. With Beijing issuing veiled threats against our currency, Congress had no choice but to turn the country’s finances over to the Senate’s bipartisan Gang of 6, which in turn acceded to Chinese and German “supervision” of their negotiations. Meanwhile, there was a growing consensus in Europe and Asia that only a true global superstate could prevent the debt contagion from spreading ...

FOR Americans, the scenario I’ve just imagined is a paranoid fantasy, the kind of New World Order nightmare that haunts the sleep of black-helicopter watchers and Trilateral Commission obsessives.

But for the inhabitants of Italy and Greece, who have just watched democratically elected governments toppled by pressure from financiers, European Union bureaucrats and foreign heads of state, it evokes the cold reality of 21st-century politics. Democracy may be nice in theory, but in a time of crisis it’s the technocrats who really get to call the shots. National sovereignty is a pretty concept, but the survival of the European common currency comes first.

[DCon]

I posted this on the euro Domino thread but it is also relevant here




Andrew Duff, a member of the European Parliament, last week provided a very useful guide to the distance the eurozone is from where it would have to be if it were a proper fiscal union. He drew up a list* of all the changes in the European Treaties that would need to be amended to achieve that. It includes changes to 23 articles and five protocols. This is the stuff the European Council should discuss, not another silly stability pact.

*http://andrewduff.eu

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/874af280-1cde-11e1-a134-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fc2u2cce

[C. Flower]

I posted this on the euro Domino thread but it is also relevant here



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/874af280-1cde-11e1-a134-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fc2u2cce

DCon - I'm not sure which document it is. I would like to have a look at this.

[DCon]

DCon - I'm not sure which document it is. I would like to have a look at this.

I could not find it either. It was referenced on the FT article but may not be up yet.

[Cian]

This whole issue of a democratic deficit, I believe, is the result of the EU being a union of nation states, as opposed to a union of peoples. I believe that up to a point that can and has worked, however as the EU takes on more and more roles and as we now require for it to take on even more responsibility in fiscal matters I think it has to be changed from being a union of nation states to a union of the peoples answerable to those people.

And that means essentially for the EU to become a Federation. This is something that people are often sceptical of and they often think of the US as an example of a federal system. However, I would put forward that the US is not the type of federal system we should adopt.

We should follow something more like the Swiss Federal model, i.e. a highly decentralised federal system. Which for the the last 700 years has worked very well between regions speaking different languages and between Catholics and protestants etc...

This link has a nice short outline of how their system works:
http://www.isil.org/resources/lit/swiss-canton-system.html

[DCon]

DCon - I'm not sure which document it is. I would like to have a look at this.

I think this may be it: http://andrewduff.eu/en/article/2011/538248/andrew-duff-launches-convention-agenda




A CONVENTION AGENDA

ECONOMIC GOVERNMENT

Article 15 TEU


(a) Codify establishment of biannual euro summits; (b) allow participation of new Treasury Secretary-Vice President (TSVP) in European Council; (c) give chair of European Council to Commission President

Article 17 TEU


(a) Promote Commission Vice-President responsible for economic & monetary affairs into Treasury Secretary (TSVP); (b) elect TSVP (and HRVP) individually by Parliament in same way as Commission President; (c) give Commission President the chairmanship of European Council

Article 5 TFEU


Amend to establish common EU economic and fiscal government, with specific provisions for eurozone [1]

Article 122 TFEU


Widen to allow emergency financial aid to any EU state

Article 123(1) TFEU


(a) Modify to lift prohibition on ECB to extend credit to states ('lender of last resort'); (b) give new powers for ECB to authorise issuance of eurobonds

Article 125 TFEU


Modify to allow mutualisation of sovereign debt ('co-responsibility'), and to set conditionality criteria and limitations

Article 126(6) TFEU


Change Council decision-making on excessive deficit procedure to reverse QMV

Article 126(7) TFEU


(a) Change Commission recommendation to correct excessive deficit to proposal; (b) change Council decision making procedure to reverse QMV; (c) allow publication of decision at that stage

Article 126(9) TFEU


Consequential amendment to reflect revisions to Articles 126(6) & (7)

Article 126(10) TFEU


Modify to widen jurisdiction of ECJ over fiscal policy

Article 126(12) TFEU


Consequential amendments

Article 126(13) TFEU


Consequential amendments

Article 136 TFEU


Widen to enjoin eurozone states to install constitutional 'debt brakes'

Article 139a (new) TFEU


Modify Parliament's procedures to allow for Eurogroup tax laws to be made by Eurogroup MEPs

Protocol No 4 on Statute of ECB


Add to tasks of ECB (Article 3)

Protocol No 12 on Excessive Deficit


Consequential amendments

Protocol No 14 on Eurogroup


(a) Formalise Council formation of Eurogroup; (b) add specific new powers over eurozone taxation; (c) give chair of Eurogroup ministers to TSVP

POLITICAL LEGITIMACY

Article 14(2) TEU


(a) Modify composition of Parliament to include pan-EU constituency for some MEPs and (b) to establish a mathematical formula for seat apportionment [2]

Article 33 TEU


Add political deputies for HRVP

Article 48 (4) & (5) TEU


Permit entry into force of any treaty amendment once it is ratified by fewer than all states (say, four fifths) [3]

Article 49a (new) TEU


Establish a new category of associate membership for states not willing to accept federal union

Article 194(2) TFEU


Widen EU competence over national choices in energy supply

Article 275 TFEU


Widen ECJ jurisdiction over operational aspects of CFSP

Article 285 TFEU


Reduce the size of Court of Auditors

Article 311 TFEU


Super QMV for reform of the system of own resources, with entry into force once ratified by fewer than all states [4]

Article 312(2) TFEU


Super QMV for MFF and abolition of passerelle [5]

Protocol No 6 on seats of institutions


Amend to give Parliament the right to decide on its own locations and schedule

Protocol No 7 on Privileges & Immunities (1965)[6]


Modernise privileges & immunities regime

Act on Direct Elections (1976)[7]


Modify to introduce pan-European constituency elected from transnational party lists




[1] For example, replace 'The Member States shall coordinate their economic policies within the Union" with "The Union shall coordinate the economic policies of the Member States".

[2] Duff Report

[3] Needs also a Decision of heads of government meeting in the European Council to implement in the first instance

[4] Needs also a Decision of heads of government meeting in the European Council to implement in time for 2014

[5] QMV passerelle clause needs to be implemented in time for 2014

[6] Duff Report

[7] Duff Report

[DCon]

Pressure on Germany?


EU sources: Several EU states are urging Germany to drop demands for Treaty changes


Most of Germany’s fiscal integration demands can be met without changing the Treaty

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/12/05/eu-sources-several-eu-states-are-urging-germany-to-drop-demands-for-treaty-changes/

[Dr. FIVE]

Riots in Brussels presently

[morticia]

I think treaty changes will be what will finally kill the Euro. Dumping them might save it. I do not see yer average Irish punter voting for them; what is perhaps more relevant is that some of the more solvent northern Euro nations might not like the view either.

[PaddyJoe]

A summary of what was agreed today by Merkel and Sarkozy according to the FT:


What the leaders agreed
●Private sector bondholders will not in future be asked to bear some of the losses in a future debt restructuring – Greece will be a one-off
●Treaty change for all 27 European Union members, but if this cannot be achieved then move forward with a treaty for the 17 eurozone members alone
●Automatic sanctions for countries that breach the rule on deficits below 3 per cent of gross domestic product
●A “golden rule” to be written into the constitutions of all 17 member states, obliging them to balance their budgets
●The “golden rule” will be verified by the European Court of Justice, although it will not have direct powers of sanction over national budgets
●Bring forward the launch of the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone’s permanent bail-out facility, from 2013 to 2012


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d0d39098-1f53-11e1-90aa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1faZs2QY9

[People Korps]

A summary of what was agreed today by Merkel and Sarkozy according to the FT:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d0d39098-1f53-11e1-90aa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1faZs2QY9

easier solution.....Germany stop cracking whips and sort out the issues of your low interest rate low inflation policy for which you must now accept 94% of blame on and pay up

[People Korps]

Riots in Brussels presently

they rioted for most of the late 60s most of the 70s and most of the 80s but mostly over Walloon and Flemish issues
is it warmer than usual for the time of year and not raining there tonight?

Ahem ...... riot time

They have a very nasty well trained riot police